Chance of finding spells?


Pathfinder Online

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Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

Someone can give me an indication on how commons are the spells and who drop them?
So far I have found 2 of them, both too high for my equipment (1 3rd level divine spell and 1 2nd level arcane).

An introductory spellbook do very little when you have nothing to put in it.

Just for comparison,so far I have found 1 trophy.

The day that we will get a functioning AH and a lot of people playing they will be a dime the dozen as, AFAIK, you never lose them after learning them, so you have to get them only once, but for now the are extremely scarce.

Goblin Squad Member

They seem to drop a little less often than recipes. As for getting what you want, exactly, you are right that trade is the best bet. Other than that.... increase volume of dead mobs. :)

My character, (Apothos) has lots of spells. If you see him on, send a whisper or yell in chat until you get his attention. He'll be happy to help you out.

Goblin Squad Member

Bringslite wrote:
They seem to drop a little less often than recipes. As for getting what you want, exactly, you are right that trade is the best bet. Other than that.... increase volume of dead mobs. :)

I wouldn't be surprised if the ratio were close to 1 spell or maneuver for 10 recipes, though it might depend on the dead mobs.

Goblinworks Game Designer

Chance of an expendable is currently 10% the chance of a recipe, across the board. If something has a 10% chance of a Tier 1 Recipe, it has a 1% chance of a Tier 1 Expendable.

Chance of Tier 1 Expendable is 0.2% for level 1s up to a max of 1.4% for level 7s (past which level chance of Tier 2 is growing, so chance of Tier 1 shrinks back down).

Chance of Tier 2 Expendable is 0.18% for level 8s up to a max of 1.86% for level 13s (past which level chance of Tier 3 is growing, so chance of Tier 2 shrinks back down).

Goblin Squad Member

Stephen Cheney wrote:

Chance of an expendable is currently 10% the chance of a recipe, across the board. If something has a 10% chance of a Tier 1 Recipe, it has a 1% chance of a Tier 1 Expendable.

Chance of Tier 1 Expendable is 0.2% for level 1s up to a max of 1.4% for level 7s (past which level chance of Tier 2 is growing, so chance of Tier 1 shrinks back down).

Chance of Tier 2 Expendable is 0.18% for level 8s up to a max of 1.86% for level 13s (past which level chance of Tier 3 is growing, so chance of Tier 2 shrinks back down).

That sounds about right in my experience.

Good call there, Urman. :)

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

Spell can be traded in the AH? I don't find a tab for them.

Goblin Squad Member

With Build 10 and 11, Spells and Maneuvers disappeared from AH. But the Devs know about that bug.

Goblin Squad Member

Across my characters I suppose I have found about 20 or 30 spells all up.

Observations:
- all were level 3 or below
- rarely drop form "white" mobs, yellow, red and up are better
- escalation mobs seem to drop more
- if you find an escalation dropping a spell chances are you will get more of same spell

With regard to Cleric versus Wizard:
- out of the 30 odd spells I have found, probably 20 or more were Cleric
- - holy symbols for level 3 spells are much easier to make then spellbooks

CEO, Goblinworks

I think there is a bug right now about spells in the Auction House. It will be fixed fast.

Goblin Squad Member

Diego Rossi wrote:
Spell can be traded in the AH? I don't find a tab for them.

If you are refering to my suggestion, I meant trade via chat.

Goblin Squad Member

Diego Rossi wrote:
Spell can be traded in the AH? I don't find a tab for them.

Things can be traded in the auction house? I didn't find a use for it.

Goblin Squad Member

I've looted a lot of spells and a few fighter maneuvers. Unfortunately the only Rogue maneuvers I got were in Build 6 or something like that and they were bugged (couldn't learn). Since then, not one rogue maneuver.

Goblin Squad Member

Stephen Cheney wrote:

Chance of an expendable is currently 10% the chance of a recipe, across the board. If something has a 10% chance of a Tier 1 Recipe, it has a 1% chance of a Tier 1 Expendable.

Chance of Tier 1 Expendable is 0.2% for level 1s up to a max of 1.4% for level 7s (past which level chance of Tier 2 is growing, so chance of Tier 1 shrinks back down).

Chance of Tier 2 Expendable is 0.18% for level 8s up to a max of 1.86% for level 13s (past which level chance of Tier 3 is growing, so chance of Tier 2 shrinks back down).

Thank you!

Can you tell us what the chance % increases are per rank for recipes?

Scarab Sages Goblin Squad Member

TEO Alexander Damocles wrote:
Diego Rossi wrote:
Spell can be traded in the AH? I don't find a tab for them.
Things can be traded in the auction house? I didn't find a use for it.

The interface is clunky (especially since you have to wade through everything that's not being offered for sale to find the things that are available), and many people are not using them, but the Auction Houses do function.

The AHs in Thornkeep and Alderwag are being actively stocked, some things have been offered for sale in the starter town AHs, and I've posted some things for sale in Talonguard.

Goblin Squad Member

Is anyone else finding Cleric Spells are way more common as a drop and Wizard spells relatively rare in comparison ?

Goblin Squad Member

Neadenil Edam wrote:
Is anyone else finding Cleric Spells are way more common as a drop and Wizard spells relatively rare in comparison ?

Welcome to probability!

It may be what you are fighting, I'm not sure how the loot tables are structured.

Goblin Squad Member

Neadenil Edam wrote:
Is anyone else finding Cleric Spells are way more common as a drop and Wizard spells relatively rare in comparison ?

I've found significantly more Wizard Spells than Cleric Spells (I think).

Goblin Squad Member

Neadenil Edam wrote:
Is anyone else finding Cleric Spells are way more common as a drop and Wizard spells relatively rare in comparison ?

I'm not noticing a clear variance. Is it possible you have one skill higher than another? That could affect your findings.

Goblinworks Game Designer

Expendable and recipe drops have roughly* equal weight for every item in the tier when picking a category. Since there are so many more Spells currently working than Maneuvers, you have a much higher chance of getting spells. Chance to get wizard vs. cleric spells is pretty similar. Essentially, if you killed and killed and killed and kept all the loot, you'd have pretty similar numbers of, say, any level 1 Trophy Charm maneuver and any level 1 Spellbook spell, it's just that there are more level 1 Spellbook spells than Trophy Charm maneuvers, so you'd have more of them all totaled.

* The function is actually 10 + total available within a category to keep smaller number categories from getting completely sidelined. For example, since there are 6 Trophy Charm maneuvers currently working at T1, there is a 16 weight for Trophy Charm maneuvers (then we check to see which maneuver you actually got) vs. a 29 weight for the 19 T1 Spellbook spells. There are 46 T1 expendables working right now, with each of the four categories getting +10, so that weight is currently out of 86. So you have a 29/86 (or 33.7%) chance of getting a Spellbook spell when you get a T1 expendable.

Goblinworks Executive Founder

And if you get any small number (defined here using the statistical sense: all real numbers are small in that sense), you are just as likely to have an actual distribution that is above the median variance from expected as one that is closer to the expected distribution than most people get.

Translation: No given individual is likely to get a distribution of drops very close to the probability distribution.

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

Stephen, you can give us an idea of what kind of NPC has a decent change to drop recipes or spells/maneuvers?
I am a bit miffed because when I started playing (build 9) I was able to harvest a decent number of recipes from the starting goblins (around 20). Now that I am a bit more capable and I am killing wilderness goblin by the half dozen or a couple of ogres at the same time I am getting close than nothing.
We need to kill elite goblins (Elite goblin slayer 5 in progress), bandits, goblin (goblin slayer 7), ogres [I haven't checked the other achievements, those two are on top of the list and I remember them] or other creatures?
20 in a few days to 2 in 3 weeks is a big drop.

It is who I kill or a change in the drop rate?

Goblin Squad Member

A thought Diego, what knowledge skills have you trained? trying to test and make sense of different levels and only see a slight improvement (to small sample to be sure) with increasing skill.

Right now I'm working on History, after working on Local and killed broken men until I felt sick.

Goblin Squad Member

I have Dungeoneering 8, Geography 7, History 7, Local 7, and Planes 7. Yet I haven't gotten a Maneuver since Build 8 or 9. I still get the occasional Spell though.

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

I have only found two divine spells ever, and not a single Arcane spell. I figure it'll be a cold day in the Nine Hells when I do find an Arcane one :(

Goblin Squad Member

I find spells now and then ever since I got local 7 and began to go after Goblin Shamans.

Haven't seen more than one manoeuvre, and IRC they are about ten times as scares as the spells, so statistically I have to get a handful or two more of spells before I can expect another one.

Goblin Squad Member

I'm close to completing Arcane Expert 9 (6,250 kills) and have probably only looted around a dozen unique Expendables. I think that fits reasonably close to what the expected drop-rate is.

Goblin Squad Member

I'll go couple weeks without seeing any, then have three drop in couple encounters. I've had mainly cleric spells and rogue manoeuvres, few fighter manoeuvres and no arcane spells. Three 2nd level, most 1st level. One broken from the group loot bug in early alpha.

Seems consistent. RNG is RNG.

Goblinworks Game Designer

Every creature type currently has the same chance for recipes and expendables, it's just based on level. Harder creatures have a better chance to drop stuff.

Level 1 creatures (which includes most goblins) have a 2% chance of a recipe. That's been true throughout alpha, though at the beginning those chances were being ignored and everything would drop anything it could drop, even if it had hardly any chance (but that was fixed months ago).

For better loot, fight harder creatures.

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

Diego Rossi wrote:

Stephen, you can give us an idea of what kind of NPC has a decent change to drop recipes or spells/maneuvers?

I am a bit miffed because when I started playing (build 9) I was able to harvest a decent number of recipes from the starting goblins (around 20). Now that I am a bit more capable and I am killing wilderness goblin by the half dozen or a couple of ogres at the same time I am getting close than nothing.
We need to kill elite goblins (Elite goblin slayer 5 in progress), bandits, goblin (goblin slayer 7), ogres [I haven't checked the other achievements, those two are on top of the list and I remember them] or other creatures?
20 in a few days to 2 in 3 weeks is a big drop.

It is who I kill or a change in the drop rate?

Every Knowledge skill at 4.

Goblin Squad Member

If you get it up to 7, I guess you get a better chance of spells...

Goblin Squad Member

Is that what the knowledge skills do - increase your chance of finding spells/maneuvers?

Goblin Squad Member

Some of then increase the quality of drops, slightly, it seems like at 7 it is a significant improvement at least.

Goblin Squad Member

Specifically, each mob type has an associated skill. (I'm on tablet, or I'd link the list.). Increasing your skill either increases the chance of getting loot (which increases the chance of getting better loot), or just directly increases the chance of better loot. I'm not sure wich.

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

An update: I have moved north to gather some coal and pine logs.
As soon as I within a couple hexes from Tornkeep I started finding a large number of weak mobs (bandits and goblins) and started finding recipes and a few spells (4 in about 6 hours of play) in the loot.

Apparently quantity weight way more than quality.

Killing 5-6 goblin or bandits in one go has a decent chance to drop a recipe, while killing 2 ogres has a way lower chance.

BTW, the knowledge skills where at 5 (not 4) during the previous attempts, now they are at 6.

Goblin Squad Member

Diego Rossi wrote:
...Killing 5-6 goblin or bandits in one go has a decent chance to drop a recipe, while killing 2 ogres has a way lower chance...

What you're seeing is random chance being random. Also, I believe the effect of knowledge skills is still not active.

Stephen Cheney wrote:

Every creature type currently has the same chance for recipes and expendables, it's just based on level. Harder creatures have a better chance to drop stuff.

Level 1 creatures (which includes most goblins) have a 2% chance of a recipe. That's been true throughout alpha, though at the beginning those chances were being ignored and everything would drop anything it could drop, even if it had hardly any chance (but that was fixed months ago).

For better loot, fight harder creatures.

Goblin Squad Member

<Kabal> Daeglin wrote:
Diego Rossi wrote:
...Killing 5-6 goblin or bandits in one go has a decent chance to drop a recipe, while killing 2 ogres has a way lower chance...

What you're seeing is random chance being random. Also, I believe the effect of knowledge skills is still not active.

Stephen Cheney wrote:

Every creature type currently has the same chance for recipes and expendables, it's just based on level. Harder creatures have a better chance to drop stuff.

Level 1 creatures (which includes most goblins) have a 2% chance of a recipe. That's been true throughout alpha, though at the beginning those chances were being ignored and everything would drop anything it could drop, even if it had hardly any chance (but that was fixed months ago).

For better loot, fight harder creatures.

Well my staff wielding cleric sprinting from mob to mob around Thornkeep was knocking over a few hundred starter critters an hour (he was one-shotting groups of 4 or 5 at a time and able to hit 2 or 3 groups a minute by tactical use of the minimap and sprinting between them) so at 2% he should have been getting 3 or 4 recipes and a spell/manoeuvre every two hours or so. That fits pretty close to what he was getting.

By the same token when I was killing those red ghoul dog things I got a recipe almost every drop.

Goblin Squad Member

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<Kabal> Daeglin wrote:


What you're seeing is random chance being random. Also, I believe the effect of knowledge skills is still not active.

Yes they are

Goblin Squad Member

Schedim wrote:
<Kabal> Daeglin wrote:
... I believe the effect of knowledge skills is still not active.
Yes they are

Confirming that Knowledge Skills are implemented and - as far as I can tell - making a fairly significant impact. I have 92 in most of the Knowledge Skills and am practically swimming in Recipes and Spells.

Goblin Squad Member

When I hit Local 7, I begun to get spells now and then, instead of almost never...

Goblin Squad Member

Nihimon wrote:
... and am practically swimming in Recipes and Spells.

yeah I have several hundred recipes kicking around across several vaults and probably 30 or 40 spells by now except I have given most of the spells away.

No T2 recipes or spells higher than level 3 though .

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

<Kabal> Daeglin wrote:
Diego Rossi wrote:
...Killing 5-6 goblin or bandits in one go has a decent chance to drop a recipe, while killing 2 ogres has a way lower chance...

What you're seeing is random chance being random. Also, I believe the effect of knowledge skills is still not active.

Stephen Cheney wrote:

Every creature type currently has the same chance for recipes and expendables, it's just based on level. Harder creatures have a better chance to drop stuff.

Level 1 creatures (which includes most goblins) have a 2% chance of a recipe. That's been true throughout alpha, though at the beginning those chances were being ignored and everything would drop anything it could drop, even if it had hardly any chance (but that was fixed months ago).

For better loot, fight harder creatures.

It is a Gaussian, kill enough targets and you get near enough to the percentage chance of finding the spells.

In 6 hours of play you kill 400-600 low level enemies, so the numbers are relatively low and there can be a serious variation, but the theoretical numbers should be 12 recipes and 1,2 between maneuvers and spells. Remember , it is not 1 check every one hundred kills, it is 1 check for every kill, so the base of the test is 400-600checks.
My numbers were 10-11 recipes (close enough, the number is imprecise as I have learned some of those recipes) and at least 4 spells if not more (again, I have learned some of the spells and, as I don't have a spellbook capable to contain wizard spells higher than level 1 I can't check what spells I have). That is way above the expected number of spells. I was either extremely lucky or something isn't working as intended.
Same thing for the higher level creatures. I have killed several hundreds of them and the recipes were 2 and the spells 1. Way lower than 2% (for the recipes) and in line with the 0,2% (for the spells).

<Kabal> Daeglin wrote:

For better loot, fight harder creatures.[/quote+

My point is that for now that isn't true. For better loot I will want to fight weaker creatures. Maybe with better knowledge skills the harder creatures will start to drop T2 spells (I have got some T2 material from them) but for now the goblins and bandits drop exactly what I want.

Goblin Squad Member

Neadenil Edam wrote:
No T2 recipes or spells higher than level 3 though .

Same.

Goblin Squad Member

Diego Rossi wrote:
Same thing for the higher level creatures. I have killed several hundreds of them and the recipes were 2 and the spells 1. Way lower than 2% (for the recipes) and in line with the 0,2% (for the spells).

I wanted to highlight this in case it gets lost in the rest of the post.

Devs, Diego is reporting that there may be a problem with the drop rates for spells on higher level mobs.

Goblin Squad Member

For those looking for Tier 2 recipes and spells, you'll need higher level mobs, not just better knowledge skills. You'll still need significant luck. I've seen one Tier 2 recipe, from a group kill of a Risen Champion, iirc.

Stephen Cheney in another thread wrote:

Chance of an expendable is currently 10% the chance of a recipe, across the board. If something has a 10% chance of a Tier 1 Recipe, it has a 1% chance of a Tier 1 Expendable.

Chance of Tier 1 Expendable is 0.2% for level 1s up to a max of 1.4% for level 7s (past which level chance of Tier 2 is growing, so chance of Tier 1 shrinks back down).

Chance of Tier 2 Expendable is 0.18% for level 8s up to a max of 1.86% for level 13s (past which level chance of Tier 3 is growing, so chance of Tier 2 shrinks back down).

Goblin Squad Member

Nihimon wrote:
Schedim wrote:
<Kabal> Daeglin wrote:
... I believe the effect of knowledge skills is still not active.
Yes they are
Confirming that Knowledge Skills are implemented and - as far as I can tell - making a fairly significant impact. I have 92 in most of the Knowledge Skills and am practically swimming in Recipes and Spells.

Good to know, thank you. Time to start spreading my xp into them.

Goblin Squad Member

Urman wrote:
For those looking for Tier 2 recipes and spells, you'll need higher level mobs, not just better knowledge skills.

Yeah, I was kinda/sorta expecting T2 Recipes and Spells to drop off the red-named Goblin Ghouls dogs; I've been killing them a lot lately.

Goblinworks Game Designer

Ghoul Goblin Dogs are only level 3. Not sure why they're showing up as red names. Dread Ghoul Wolves are level 6, but they should all have the wolf model, not the goblin dog model.

In other news, Recipe and Expendable chances are changing in the next patch to smooth out the drop rate progression.

In the build you're playing, T1s rise to about 20% at level 7, then T2s start to come in and their estimated value is so much higher that, even though the overall value of the drops is going up, the chance of getting anything goes down (because when you do get something, it's more valuable).

In the new progression, you basically have a 2% chance of any recipe from first level creatures (and a .2% chance of an expendable). That goes up to 3% for a recipe at 2nd level, and +1% at each subsequent level to a max of 20% at 19th level (past 19th, that 20% is made up more and more of T3 than of T2 but stays 20% cumulative). Higher Tier stuff starts coming in earlier (at a very low drop chance), and lower Tier stuff tends to hang on a little lower for an overall smoother transition between Tiers. The total estimated value remains the same as the current system, just the relative chances changed.

Practically, this means that your chance of any recipe is lower at level 7 (used to be about 20% chance of a T1, now is an 8% chance of a recipe overall - 6.6% chance of a T1 and 1.47% chance of a T2), but T2 stuff should start coming in earlier (and more frequently, given the overall prevalence of creatures under level 8).

Goblin Squad Member

Stephen Cheney wrote:
Ghoul Goblin Dogs are only level 3. Not sure why they're showing up as red names.

For clarity, there are two dogs that spawn in the Goblin Ghouls Escalations. The red-named dog is "gutglut biter", and the yellow-named dog is "gutglut gnawer".

Goblin Squad Member

Nihimon wrote:
Stephen Cheney wrote:
Ghoul Goblin Dogs are only level 3. Not sure why they're showing up as red names.
For clarity, there are two dogs that spawn in the Goblin Ghouls Escalations. The red-named dog is "gutglut biter", and the yellow-named dog is "gutglut gnawer".

It's the gutglut biters that were giving me a lot of recipes. But it may have been just luck of the draw as I did not kill enough to comprise a meaningful statistical sample.

Liberty's Edge Goblin Squad Member

I will try to get some actual numbers, emptying my backpack and hunting in the norther highlands while searching for coal.

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