Ryan Dancey Predicts Pathfinder RPG in '06


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Jon Brazer Enterprises

Link

Ryan Dancey wrote:
With so much of the 30+ year legacy D&D game in the SRD, I believe it is impossible to ever make a game that would be accepted by the fans as "D&D" without it being possible to alter whatever is necessary to make the Open Game version of D&D compatible with whatever product is being currently sold as "D&D" by WotC. A game divergent enough to break that legacy with the SRD is simply not going to be tolerable to anyone vested in the D&D player network. Such a radical break would almost certainly result in a 3rd party version of the game, published under a new brand name, becoming the de-facto inheritor of the D&D player network externality, coming into direct competition with whatever faux "D&D" product is being marketed, and probably crushing it.

Emphasis mine. Just thought I'd post these words of encouragement to the Paizians.

Liberty's Edge

Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Charter Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber

I will do the dance of joy if PRPG crushes 4E and then I would beg Paizo to buy the Forgotten Realms license and fix the damage WOTC has done to it. :)

Jon Brazer Enterprises

I think they'd do greyhawk first. But I expect them to stay with their own setting.

Dark Archive

The interesting thing is, while Pathfinder will be significantly different from D&D 3.5, it will still feel like the most recent incarnation of D&D, with magic missiles, wizards, familiars, feats, magic items, and the like.

I do believe that Ryan Dancey is partially correct - I, as a consumer, feel relieved that Pathfinder RPG is coming out *because my gaming library is not invalidated*. Nor is my investment in understanding the current ruleset, or the social infrastructure built with my gaming group (we have tropes we can depend on in our rules). In fact, even if I keep playing with my shoddy old PHB 3.5, I can still enjoy and use Pathfinder adventures, should I choose.

As far as crushing 4e, I doubt that -- Paizo doesn't have the brand recognition or marketing network that WOTC has. However, I would predict, if they continue to support their ruleset with supplements, adventures, keep hiring quality artists and putting out slick looking books, properly supporting a RPGA-style Pathfinder organization, and even seduce a few other 3rd party publishers to jump on the 3.P bandwagon, they will have a sizeable following.

I could predict them keeping 20%+ of the current D&D fanbase.


Does Ryan Dancey offer stock advice?

Lone Shark Games

Actually, I can bear witness that Ryan predicted this in 1999. When he first came into Wizards' RPG R&D department with this crazy-but-brilliant-sounding idea* of decentralizing D&D, he was asked what would happen if Wizards ever wanted to put D&D back in the bottle. Ryan was clear that he believed such an attempt would be doomed to failure, and that the open system would remain economically viable for someone after that point.

To be absolutely clear, Wizards hasn't said it's not supporting open gaming, and some of the people making the decisions there now were in the same room I was when Ryan brought this up. All I'm saying is that Ryan did think of this possibility at the dawn of d20, before anyone else did.

Mike

*Or, to some at the time, this crazy-but-seriously-I-mean-really-crazy-sounding idea.

The Exchange

That's some real insight. I'm glad people look far into the future when the develope something. Thanks Mike for that update.

Scarab Sages

I checked out some of the nearby threads; I found THIS one rather ironic...

and THIS one even more prophetic!

And though THIS one was an April Fool, I still had to check (darn that bizarre American date-style! 4th Jan? WTF!)

Jon Brazer Enterprises

Mike Selinker wrote:
Actually, I can bear witness that Ryan predicted this in 1999.

Dang. Its like no matter what I hear about Ryan, I just keep getting more and more respect for the man, his Int and his Cha.

Lone Shark Games

DMcCoy1693 wrote:
Dang. Its like no matter what I hear about Ryan, I just keep getting more and more respect for the man, his Int and his Cha.

But, having played quite a bit of poker with Mr. Dancey, I can also say you were right leave off the Wis. :^)

No, seriously, I honestly believe that Ryan is one of the ten smartest people in the game industry. He and I have had some of the greatest knock-down debates in the gaming industry. When he talks, it's worth listening to how he got to his conclusions, even if you ultimately disagree with them.

Mike

Liberty's Edge

I think we should institute a Ryan Dancey day. Without him, the PRPG wouldn't be possible.

Liberty's Edge

What's Ryan doing these days? What's he working on?

Lone Shark Games

Mr Baron wrote:
What's Ryan doing these days? What's he working on?

He's the chief marketing officer of CCP Games, the company that merged with White Wolf. That means that he lives in, of all places, Iceland.

Scarab Sages

Can he get Sportacus' autograph?

Not for me, of course...<cough>...

Jon Brazer Enterprises

Mike Selinker wrote:
He's the chief marketing officer of CCP Games, the company that merged with White Wolf. That means that he lives in, of all places, Iceland.

Dang. So even Dancey went over to MMORPGs. ;)


Snorter wrote:
(darn that bizarre American date-style! 4th Jan? WTF!)

Bah!

Under International Standard Organization standard 8601:2000, that date is the seventh of January, 2004.

(After all, everybody knows that in any number, you put the more significant digits to the left; 100.002 is one-thousandth more than 100.001, not one hundred more. Similarly, 04-01-08 is obviously and logically one day more than 04-01-07, not one year.)


DMcCoy1693 wrote:
I think they'd do greyhawk first. But I expect them to stay with their own setting.

i'd rather they re-do Birthright!! (sorry for off topicness)


Mike Selinker wrote:
Mr Baron wrote:
What's Ryan doing these days? What's he working on?
He's the chief marketing officer of CCP Games, the company that merged with White Wolf. That means that he lives in, of all places, Iceland.

I remember reading somewhere he left the industry and runs an ISP-ish company called ISOmedia. Did he return or is something else going on?

Paizo Employee Chief Technical Officer

Chef's Slaad wrote:
Mike Selinker wrote:
Mr Baron wrote:
What's Ryan doing these days? What's he working on?
He's the chief marketing officer of CCP Games, the company that merged with White Wolf. That means that he lives in, of all places, Iceland.

I remember reading somewhere he left the industry and runs an ISP-ish company called ISOmedia. Did he return or is something else going on?

Mike is correct about his current job. I *think* he's still a co-owner of Isomedia, though.

Lone Shark Games

Vic Wertz wrote:
Mike is correct about his current job. I *think* he's still a co-owner of Isomedia, though.

Isomedia predates Ryan's time in the game industry. It was what gave him the ability to found Five Rings Publishing, which was sold to WotC, which put him in charge of D&D, which put him in charge of me. I don't know whether he still owns part of Iso.

Mike


Mike Selinker wrote:
Vic Wertz wrote:
Mike is correct about his current job. I *think* he's still a co-owner of Isomedia, though.

Isomedia predates Ryan's time in the game industry. It was what gave him the ability to found Five Rings Publishing, which was sold to WotC, which put him in charge of D&D, which put him in charge of me. I don't know whether he still owns part of Iso.

Mike

Ah, I see. Thanks.

Grand Lodge

Here is a link to R. Dancey's Blog for those that are interested.

R. Dancy

Sovereign Court

Herald wrote:

Here is a link to R. Dancey's Blog for those that are interested.

R. Dancy

Which would be interesting if he still updated it.:)

Grand Lodge

Elf_NFB wrote:
Herald wrote:

Here is a link to R. Dancey's Blog for those that are interested.

R. Dancy

Which would be interesting if he still updated it.:)

His pasts posts still make for an interesting read.

Dark Archive

I can see Wotc not wanting to part with their settings and Paizo will either have to give a whole lot to get FR or Greyhawk, ( or Eberron.) I can see Paizo making a very good setting with the writers that they already have, and if it comes down to it Margaret Weis ,Tracy Hickman, Lisa Smedman, Ed Greenwood, or R.A. Salvatore are not working for WotC and can make a setting. The adventure paths have all been written very well and have proved, to be much better than the adventures that wotc have come up with, since hasbro.

Liberty's Edge

Souphin wrote:
I can see Wotc not wanting to part with their settings and Paizo will either have to give a whole lot to get FR or Greyhawk, ( or Eberron.) I can see Paizo making a very good setting with the writers that they already have, and if it comes down to it Margaret Weis ,Tracy Hickman, Lisa Smedman, Ed Greenwood, or R.A. Salvatore are not working for WotC and can make a setting. The adventure paths have all been written very well and have proved, to be much better than the adventures that wotc have come up with, since hasbro.

I'm not sure why they'd need to bother. Goarion is a FINE setting. I'm perfectly comfortable with it becoming the new standard.

Grand Lodge

Mike Selinker wrote:
DMcCoy1693 wrote:
Dang. Its like no matter what I hear about Ryan, I just keep getting more and more respect for the man, his Int and his Cha.

But, having played quite a bit of poker with Mr. Dancey, I can also say you were right leave off the Wis. :^)

No, seriously, I honestly believe that Ryan is one of the ten smartest people in the game industry. He and I have had some of the greatest knock-down debates in the gaming industry. When he talks, it's worth listening to how he got to his conclusions, even if you ultimately disagree with them.

Mike

Ryan is a very smart man and a farsighted individual, but he did make his own share of misguesses including his idea for an implementation of a Digital based campaign. For a lot of folks, he's only going to be known as the man who killed the Living City.

Grand Lodge

Souphin wrote:
I can see Wotc not wanting to part with their settings and Paizo will either have to give a whole lot to get FR or Greyhawk, ( or Eberron.) I can see Paizo making a very good setting with the writers that they already have, and if it comes down to it Margaret Weis ,Tracy Hickman, Lisa Smedman, Ed Greenwood, or R.A. Salvatore are not working for WotC and can make a setting. The adventure paths have all been written very well and have proved, to be much better than the adventures that wotc have come up with, since hasbro.

Paizo will not get Greyhawk, nor Forgotten Realms until the day that Hasbro/WoTC are ready to close up shop. They might have a stab at Eberron as I think the stake is going to be given to that setting but it would still probably cost more than they're willing to pay, and they might be keeping themselves busy enough with Golaria.

Lone Shark Games

By the way, I had a long, fun talk with Ryan at the GAMA Trade Show. When I told him there was a thread called "Ryan Dancey predicts Pathfinder RPG in '06," he said, "I did? Wow! Did they write about all the things I said that didn't come true?" So for the rest of the show, we used the word "Nostradamus-like" to define him.

Grand Lodge

Mike Selinker wrote:
By the way, I had a long, fun talk with Ryan at the GAMA Trade Show. When I told him there was a thread called "Ryan Dancey predicts Pathfinder RPG in '06," he said, "I did? Wow! Did they write about all the things I said that didn't come true?" So for the rest of the show, we used the word "Nostradamus-like" to define him.

Tell him to get back to updating that blog of his. He is very insightful.

Paizo Employee Chief Technical Officer

Herald wrote:
Tell him to get back to updating that blog of his. He is very insightful.

I can't explain this further, but he's in a situation where that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Dark Archive

Vic Wertz wrote:
Herald wrote:
Tell him to get back to updating that blog of his. He is very insightful.
I can't explain this further, but he's in a situation where that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Broken his index fingers?

Jon Brazer Enterprises

amethal wrote:
Broken his index fingers?

Nope. He posted on the ENWorld equivilent thread about his "hits" and "misses".

Link

Scarab Sages

SirUrza wrote:
I will do the dance of joy if PRPG crushes 4E and then I would beg Paizo to buy the Forgotten Realms license and fix the damage WOTC has done to it. :)

I do hope someone can rescue the Realms. I know there is a certain amount of damage control going on by the right people, but as long as WotC is at the helm it's obviously not something that is going to happen.

I have had this crazy theory that by 2010-2011 WotC will have milked enough money out of 4e that Hasbro will probably spin off the D&D brand and all associated licences and sell that division of WotC. They just need this last infusion of cash... kind of like the last gasp, I guess.

Ryan "Nostradamus" Dancey has been right about an awful lot... I do hope his time machine didn't mislead him this time. :)

Scarab Sages

LazarX wrote:
Souphin wrote:
I can see Wotc not wanting to part with their settings and Paizo will either have to give a whole lot to get FR or Greyhawk, ( or Eberron.) I can see Paizo making a very good setting with the writers that they already have, and if it comes down to it Margaret Weis ,Tracy Hickman, Lisa Smedman, Ed Greenwood, or R.A. Salvatore are not working for WotC and can make a setting. The adventure paths have all been written very well and have proved, to be much better than the adventures that wotc have come up with, since hasbro.
Paizo will not get Greyhawk, nor Forgotten Realms until the day that Hasbro/WoTC are ready to close up shop. They might have a stab at Eberron as I think the stake is going to be given to that setting but it would still probably cost more than they're willing to pay, and they might be keeping themselves busy enough with Golaria.

Ed Greenwood is freelancing for WotC for the FR Setting book for 4e (and writing novels). He's writing 50,000 words, or some such, and I'm sure they will be the best 50,000 in the book. :) Even within the framework of the 4e Realms he can still write in the style of "old" Realms for the areas for which he's responsible (though I don't know what those are).

As for Paizo getting Greyhawk or FR (or Dragonlance, or Ravenloft, or Birthright, or Eberron... not to my taste, but still popular with a lot of people) they wouldn't have to necessarily develop it in-house. If they could obtain the *licence* for those settings, they could then farm out the development to responsible, quality people (ie. Greenwood, Weis, Hickman, etc etc etc).

Grand Lodge

Vic Wertz wrote:
Herald wrote:
Tell him to get back to updating that blog of his. He is very insightful.
I can't explain this further, but he's in a situation where that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

While I guess I really don't need to know, I hope he's doing some really cool top secret stuff rather than say in protective custody.

The Exchange

Snorter wrote:

Can he get Sportacus' autograph?

Not for me, of course...<cough>...

OMG!!! I didn't know he was Ms. Busybody's son!! Alex Busybody, eh.... cool!

Oh....I mean...ummm.....who is this 'Sportacus' of whom you speak?
;P

Liberty's Edge

Fake Healer wrote:
Snorter wrote:

Can he get Sportacus' autograph?

Not for me, of course...<cough>...

OMG!!! I didn't know he was Ms. Busybody's son!! Alex Busybody, eh.... cool!

Oh....I mean...ummm.....who is this 'Sportacus' of whom you speak?
;P

I hate myself for following along with this part of the conversation

Paizo Employee Chief Technical Officer

amethal wrote:
Vic Wertz wrote:
Herald wrote:
Tell him to get back to updating that blog of his. He is very insightful.
I can't explain this further, but he's in a situation where that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Broken his index fingers?

I think the pit bosses do that for him every time we have a trade show in Vegas.


Paul Hedges wrote:
Fake Healer wrote:
Snorter wrote:

Can he get Sportacus' autograph?

Not for me, of course...<cough>...

OMG!!! I didn't know he was Ms. Busybody's son!! Alex Busybody, eh.... cool!

Oh....I mean...ummm.....who is this 'Sportacus' of whom you speak?
;P
I hate myself for following along with this part of the conversation

hehe...life is all about the dice as well as the diapers. Then again, without us, who would train the next generation of gamers?

Liberty's Edge

So very true Sir

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