None of the nations are really a 1:1 take on real world nations or cultures but some things in the setting are clearly inspired by real life.
I'm basically looking for a really repressive atmosphere, where it's due to the people and not any separate supernatural thing like the threat of the Worldwound or Tar-Baphon. A domineering government with a vast spy network of secret police dedicated more towards surveilling its own populace than outside threats.
Razmiran seems is a little like this but is there anything with a party-based leadership and not a god-king? If not, is there any place that seems like it could turn that way? There's been a lot of turnover since the setting popped up. Maybe Molthune or Ravounel?
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Once upon a time, Bachuan would have been perfect.
In the Inner Sea region, Cheliax and Nidal sound about right for the spying on its own people thing.
Galt might have fit before its "benefactor" was taken out.
A hardcore version of Rahadoum could be it.
Note though that, AFAICT, party-based government is not really a thing in Golarion.
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There might be a few oligarchies though. If the primarch and grand council of Absalom suddenly took a bent toward authoritarianism, it could make for an excellent setting for a dystopian urban adventure. Even better, since it's on a giant island, there's only so many places for PCs to escape (esp. if the secret police are watching the docks), but there's still enough room for rebel sympathizers to hide out in the sparse few towns, shielded from the government by the fact that there's only so much searching you can do when the mountains are filled with minotaurs and harpies and the local centaurs are certainly no friends of the cops'.
That aside, the first names that come to mind are Cheliax (ruled over all by Abrogail, but no queen rules alone) and Nidal. Back when Mengkare ruled Hermea, you could do an interesting take on a supposed perfect utopia with a dark underbelly, though you might not get the oppressive atmosphere and nearly as many secret police as you'd like. Also come to think of it that probably runs obviously against your god-king restriction, scratch that.
Ustalav is I think still ruled by mortal counts despite TB popping a cork near there recently. It's a lot more deeply rural outside of the capital in Caliphas, but the city is more than full enough with politicking and secret societies like the Esoteric Order. If the deadly court games demanded keeping a tight lid on the activities of the common people, it probably wouldn't be too difficult to slip in some secret police and spies.
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Thanks a lot.
Never thought about Nidal