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The Game Mastery Guide just dropped and because Im a data nerd I wanted to find out how deadly a pandemic of any given transmutable disease affliction would be to the average npc commoner (both npcs and afflictions outlined in the GMG).
So, I wrote a python program that followed the rules as though it was being rolled by a person from infection to survival or death for commoners of Human, Dwarf and Elven heritages (given their different Con modifiers that effect fort). I iterated 10,000 times on each race/disease combo to get a good statistical look at the disease progress, assuming no medical/magical intervention and the following is what I found...
Heritage | kill rate | Average Illness | Longest Illness
Scarlet Fever
Humans| 2.45% 4days 17days
Elves| 4.40% 4days 19days
Dwarves| 1.63% 4days 15days
Filth Fever
Humans| 2.21% 2days 29days
Elves| 4.06% 3days 26days
Dwarves| 1.27% 2days 19days
Tuberculosis
Humans| 4.13% 4weeks 30weeks
Elves| 7.13% 4weeks 37weeks
Dwarves| 2.31% 3weeks 29weeks
Ghoul Fever
Humans| 14.39% 2days 9days
Elves| 19.68% 2days 7days
Dwarves| 11.08% 2days 7days
Ghast Fever
Humans| 23.44% 2days 4days
Elves| 27.99% 2days 4days
Dwarves| 18.90% 2days 4days
Bubonic Plauge
Humans| 18.77% 3days 14days
Elves| 26.30% 3days 11days
Dwarves| 14.64% 3days 13days
Zombie Rot
Humans| 32.75% 2days 7days
Elves| 40.25% 2days 7days
Dwarves| 25.82% 2days 6days
Scarlet Leprosy
Humans| 57.35% 3days 5days
Elves| 63.09% 3days 5days
Dwarves| 52.69% 3days 5days
Choking Death
Humans| 57.23% 5days 15days
Elves| 65.21% 5days 14days
Dwarves| 48.04% 5days 19days
Blinding Sickness
Humans| 65.15% 5days 23days
Elves| 72.22% 7days 20days
Dwarves| 55.08% 5days 25days
Brian Worms
Humans| 94.73% 5days 10days
Elves| 94.68% 5days 9days
Dwarves| 94.98% 6days 10days
What I discovered is small con changes influence survival rate significantly until you get in to dc's you cant expect to ever pass. Additionally diseases that do damage at each stage or are transmitted by damage are particularly deadly to npc commoners given their low hp and presumably slow heal rate.
the numbers above give you a good idea of how serious a outbreak could be a on a city or national scale in your game. Diseases that have longer run times will likely infect more folks than shorter violent diseases as the carriers will interact with more people in there day to days lives over its duration, whereas some diseases like Ghoul fever or Zombie rot would likely start to be contained with the first few days, as soon as people made the connection that the infected dead raise and attack them, they would take precautions, but as in life, some folks would avoid treatment and potentially create reoccurring pockets of infection for the PC's to deal with.
hope you enjoy!
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I don't know what Brian Worms are but brian seems to be a nasty f*****
nice thing you put here together :P
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Bubonic plague isn't nearly as deadly in Golarion as it was on Earth.
OTOH, they have brain worms.
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Brian Worms are a common form of plauge.I don't know what Brian Worms are but brian seems to be a nasty f*****
nice thing you put here together :P
Ah, those Brian Worms must have been invented by Brian VanHoose... just make sure your HackMaster character won't ever be infested!
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What Save Bonus are you assuming?
Because it should probably be +2 for level 0, but Trained, but you don't say and I'm interested.
Im using the stat block for commoner straight out of the 2E Game Masters Guide. Human Commomers have +6 to fort...+2 con, then trained +2, level probaly +1, not sure where the last +1 comes for but they seem to treat NPCs more like monsters than PC's. For Elves I -1 con mod, and Dwarves +1 con mod, making them +5 and +7 respectively. and all had 10hp as per the stat block.
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Dotting.
*cough* no...of course I would not calculate that certain unnamed real world current events are probally a DC15 with 2day incubation and 5 stages before death *cough*
Very cool, Bannondorf! Thank you for sharing!
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Im using the stat block for commoner straight out of the 2E Game Masters Guide. Human Commomers have +6 to fort...+2 con, then trained +2, level probaly +1, not sure where the last +1 comes for but they seem to treat NPCs more like monsters than PC's. For Elves I -1 con mod, and Dwarves +1 con mod, making them +5 and +7 respectively. and all had 10hp as per the stat block.
Awesome! That makes the number very useful indeed.
NPCs are treated exactly like monsters, which means that their stats are indeed figured independently of each other.
That said, Fort is their Good save, and they're level -1, so if you want to figure backwards you can (they get +0 from level, +4 from Expert Fort, +2 Con, which works out perfectly...this assumption of level being +0 also works out perfectly for Will and Reflex being Trained). Most monsters can actually be figured like this, even though that's not how they are actually constructed.
But if using NPCs from the GMG, there are actual guidelines on how to change them for different Ancestries and those don't actually include changing Ability scores or Saves. The three examples are still useful for seeing what difference even one point on Saves makes, but it's worth noting.
Im using the stat block for commoner straight out of the 2E Game Masters Guide. Human Commomers have +6 to fort...+2 con, then trained +2, level probaly +1, not sure where the last +1 comes for but they seem to treat NPCs more like monsters than PC's. For Elves I -1 con mod, and Dwarves +1 con mod, making them +5 and +7 respectively. and all had 10hp as per the stat block.Awesome! That makes the number very useful indeed.
NPCs are treated exactly like monsters, which means that their stats are indeed figured independently of each other.
That said, Fort is their Good save, and they're level -1, so if you want to figure backwards you can (they get +0 from level, +4 from Expert Fort, +2 Con, which works out perfectly...this assumption of level being +0 also works out perfectly for Will and Reflex being Trained). Most monsters can actually be figured like this, even though that's not how they are actually constructed.
But if using NPCs from the GMG, there are actual guidelines on how to change them for different Ancestries and those don't actually include changing Ability scores or Saves. The three examples are still useful for seeing what difference even one point on Saves makes, but it's worth noting.
Page 204 of the GMG in "Ancestry Adjustments": "You can also give them a ancestry feat, or even adjust their ability scores and skills to reflect their new ancestries strengths and weaknesses.", so no, you don't have to, dealers choice, this dealer chose to reflect those scores and there effect on the npc.
however as you mentioned the above figures could be used for characters that have slightly more or less con as well.
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Page 204 of the GMG in "Ancestry Adjustments": "You can also give them a ancestry feat, or even adjust their ability scores and skills to reflect their new ancestries strengths and weaknesses.", so no, you don't have to, dealers choice, this dealer chose to reflect those scores and there effect on the npc.
True, but as noted, by the monster rules, changing Ability scores doesn't necessarily change Saves. The two are completely unrelated.
however as you mentioned the above figures could be used for characters that have slightly more or less con as well.
This is certainly true.