I say Unveiled Masters!
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Arazni's almost too obvious to be it. Especially since she's somehow not mentioned as an in-setting theory, even though supposedly her old pre-Geb teachings were still followed by a rare few in Lastwall.
My bet is : no single entity, but a small alliance of deific powers.
The Ragathiel hints are strong as well, arguments could somewhat be made for a few others and really, what kind of do-gooder wouldn't oppose goold old TarB'.
Arazni, maybe with some patronage from Ragathiel.
Or maybe the Crimson Oath isn't just a mortal construct, and represents a pantheon of sorts, like the Godclaw.
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I mean given Arazni's aesthetic it seems a reasonable choice. Maybe Nocticula, but that seems far-fetched given that her color palette doesn't match and she has no real relation to the undead. It seems odd why a being like Ragathiel or Milani (another guess of mine) wouldn't just...claim responsibility.
Also Arazni feels more appropriate given the oath, so...
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The entity behind the Oath is said to be helping undeads that were turned against their will, and that's basically what happened to Arazni.
Often the most obvious answer is the correct one.
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The ghost of aroden tied to the mortal coil by an angry Arazni deciding it's time the god of humanity actually do something instead of laze around being dead all the time.
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My Tyrants Grasp PC, a fallen paladin turned servant of Arazni is LOVING the Crimson Oath concept since in my game he sort of acts as a precursor to the oath takers. Deffo think it's Arazni.
What book is it in?
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I'm a fan of the "not a singular source" school of thought. I've got a breakdown here. I've spoilered it to save space.
We swear with voices cold as death, (Pharasma)
While yet we stand, and yet draw breath, (Cayden Cailean, standing bravely in the face of the impossible looming undead hordes)
We shall not let the dead endure, (Torag)
Nor let them taint our lands verdure. (Erastil and/or Gozreh)
We shall not falter, shall not rout, (Iomedae, whose cloak turns crimson when going into battle)
But cut them down, and burn them out. (Asmodeus)
We swear on Vigil's shattered walls, (Ragathiel)
Our Crimson Oath, the Tyrant falls!
Now, certainly, Asmodeus seems like an unconventional inclusion for something like this. Here are my head-canon justifications.
1. Swearing an oath is a contract.
2. He doesn't want his brother, whom he himself cut down, to be brought back as an undead god. Who truly knows what the Whispering Tyrant would do if he attained his own divinity?
3. He was willing to collaborate with the other core 20s to imprison Rovagug, so there's precedent.
I'm a fan of the "not a singular source" school of thought. I've got a breakdown here. I've spoilered it to save space.
** spoiler omitted **
A lot of those feel like a reach, especially when coupled to specific lines.
It's not a terrible idea, and certainly, I can see the Crimson Oath as a Godclaw-esque deity collection, but the specific choices you cite here... yeah, no, not seeing it.