Back in the Saddle Again, Top 32 Stats


RPG Superstar™ 2011 General Discussion


How many of the vaunted Top 32 seats are typically claimed by returning Top 32 prospects from the previous year?

Thought it would be an interesting stat.

:: shrugs ::


Hassan Ahmed wrote:

How many of the vaunted Top 32 seats are typically claimed by returning Top 32 prospects from the previous year?

Thought it would be an interesting stat.

:: shrugs ::

I think so far it has happened twice.

3 times if you count the Maw of uragotha (sp?)
and I think there might be an alt who made the Top 32 in a later year or vice versa.

Contributor, RPG Superstar 2009, RPG Superstar Judgernaut

Very few.

Matthew Morris and Alexander MacLeod have done it. Technically, Casey Smith, too.

But I'm not sure how many others. It isn't very many.

Also, keep in mind that the Top 8 from each year become ineligible to compete in following years. So, only 24 out of the Top 32 really have a shot at pulling off a repeat. That said, I also happen to think that more and more of those prior competitors are sharpening their pencils (or their knives?) to make another go at it. So, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out this year. More of them know what it takes now. And they're all good enough to make it. They've just got to go back to the well and bring out something wondrous again.

Shadow Lodge

Neil Spicer wrote:

Very few.

Matthew Morris and Alexander MacLeod have done it. Technically, Casey Smith, too.

But I'm not sure how many others. It isn't very many.

Also, keep in mind that the Top 8 from each year become ineligible to compete in following years. So, only 24 out of the Top 32 really have a shot at pulling off a repeat. That said, I also happen to think that more and more of those prior competitors are sharpening their pencils (or their knives?) to make another go at it. So, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out this year. More of them know what it takes now. And they're all good enough to make it. They've just got to go back to the well and bring out something wondrous again.

Matthew and Alexander are the only 2. Alexander 2008 & 2010, Matthew 2009 & 2010. (I have all the winners in a spreadsheet for the PDF I'm creating :P)

Contributor, RPG Superstar 2009, RPG Superstar Judgernaut

Azmahel wrote:
...and I think there might be an alt who made the Top 32 in a later year or vice versa.

Andrew Black. Made the Top 32 in 2008. Alternate in 2010.

Shadow Lodge

Neil Spicer wrote:
Azmahel wrote:
...and I think there might be an alt who made the Top 32 in a later year or vice versa.
Andrew Black. Made the Top 32 in 2008. Alternate in 2010.

Ah yeah. Don't have the list of alternates. :)


If someone makes it to top 8 they're banned from the contest? wow... Is that foreva or just a (few) year(s) ?

Contributor, RPG Superstar 2009, RPG Superstar Judgernaut

Forever, ever...as far as I know...or until Paizo decides to change it.


GreatArcantos wrote:
If someone makes it to top 8 they're banned from the contest? wow... Is that foreva or just a (few) year(s) ?

Look at it this way: part of the point of the context is to identify new talent that could be tapped to write for Pathfinder. By the time you hit the top 8, you've already been so identified -- the powers that be have a sense of your writing and could call on you in the future. I've noticed some people who placed highly but didn't win in previous years get writing credits, at least.

Once you already know that someone is "good enough", it makes sense to get them out of the pool so you get more fresh competitors the next year.


Wow... so at that point it *really* is a fight to the death... All for that lil extra incentive


Dire Mongoose wrote:
GreatArcantos wrote:
If someone makes it to top 8 they're banned from the contest? wow... Is that foreva or just a (few) year(s) ?

Look at it this way: part of the point of the context is to identify new talent that could be tapped to write for Pathfinder. By the time you hit the top 8, you've already been so identified -- the powers that be have a sense of your writing and could call on you in the future. I've noticed some people who placed highly but didn't win in previous years get writing credits, at least.

Once you already know that someone is "good enough", it makes sense to get them out of the pool so you get more fresh competitors the next year.

I had my guesses at that yeah

Still must be pretty harsh...


GreatArcantos wrote:


Still must be pretty harsh...

It's all a matter of perspective. If you enter RPGSS to win RPGSS, harsh. If you enter RPGSS to get to write some official Pathfinder stuff, you may have already won at 6th place, so not harsh.

Sovereign Court RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32, 2010 Top 8 , Star Voter Season 6

Dire Mongoose wrote:
GreatArcantos wrote:


Still must be pretty harsh...
It's all a matter of perspective. If you enter RPGSS to win RPGSS, harsh. If you enter RPGSS to get to write some official Pathfinder stuff, you may have already won at 6th place, so not harsh.

Agreed:

Spoiler:
And before anyone asks "And why haven't we seen your stuff, Matthew?" The answer is twofold, first 2010 was a bad year, and I barely made it though the Holidays. Second, my creativity comes in spurts. Maybe it's manic depressive. I was hoping that if, by some act of G_d and maps, I won last year, having a clear, non-self set, deadline would help.

Going to try to make 2011 better though.

Contributor, RPG Superstar 2010 Top 16, 2011 Top 32, 2012 Top 4

Hassan Ahmed wrote:
How many of the vaunted Top 32 seats are typically claimed by returning Top 32 prospects from the previous year?

This brings up another question. When do the judges find out the names of the Final 32? We already know the judging is anonymous, but when does the curtain of anonymity lift for the judges?

And, is it a +1 curtain of anonymity? ;-)

Edit: Fixed bad html tag.


Matthew Morris wrote:
Dire Mongoose wrote:


It's all a matter of perspective.
Agreed

Ok, touché

Star Voter Season 7

Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber
Matthew Morris wrote:
Dire Mongoose wrote:
GreatArcantos wrote:


Still must be pretty harsh...
It's all a matter of perspective. If you enter RPGSS to win RPGSS, harsh. If you enter RPGSS to get to write some official Pathfinder stuff, you may have already won at 6th place, so not harsh.

Agreed:

** spoiler omitted **

I can always set you a deadline, if that would help. ;)

Sovereign Court RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32, 2010 Top 8 , Star Voter Season 6

Wanted to add, as far as I know, the judges don't know who made the top 32 until after their chosen, maybe at the same time we do.

Looking at the comments on my Tankard, the final four didn't seem to know it was me again (you'd have to ask them though) Neil's post says 'joined the ranks' where 'rejoined' would have fit better if he'd known it was me. (we all know how precise Neil is)

Vic (and maybe Ross) seem to know/can find out who sent what, but I don't think the judges know until they pop up.


Tom Phillips wrote:


This brings up another question. When do the judges find out the names of the Final 32? We already know the judging is anonymous, but when does the curtain of anonymity lift for the judges?

And, is it a +1 curtain of anonymity? ;-)

Now you have me wondering if the judges are perusing the many Round 2 threads and snickering at the archetype musings of people who didn't make the Top 1000.

I mean, they have to do something to keep themselves out of trouble for 5 days...

Legendary Games, Necromancer Games

Tom Phillips wrote:

This brings up another question. When do the judges find out the names of the Final 32? We already know the judging is anonymous, but when does the curtain of anonymity lift for the judges?

We don't know until you do. We send our final list and alternates to Vic and company. They process them and do the big reveal. We, literally, have no advanced info on who the winners are (with the one caveat that when the maw of urgathoa was submitted the second time and it made our top 32 anonymously, we asked Vic to confirm it was sent by the same author as we all agreed we would NOT have advanced it had it been polished up and submitted by someone else; so that was the one time we knew before you did).

Contributor, RPG Superstar 2009, RPG Superstar Judgernaut

::nodding in agreement with Clark::

Yeah. We literally have no idea who submitted these things we've selected. And that's a good thing. Both for fairness and objectivity in the judging process. And, because we're just as excited for the big reveal as anyone else.

Spoiler:

Okay. Maybe not just as excited as anyone else. I mean, we're not eligible to compete. But we're excited for you.


Neil Spicer wrote:
Forever, ever...as far as I know...or until Paizo decides to change it.

(edited)

I seem to remember suggesting a 'superstar of superstars' contest last year, and after this year there should be enough top 8 contenders to go around....
(Assuming all top eights are still alive, insane*, and able + willing to post, that is...)

* Insane as in 'genius'. :D


With regard to the original question, looked at one way you could say that the statistics (two contests where contestants from previous contests were able to enter, four to make it to the big time again) indicate that one or two top 32 contenders from previous years will feature amongst the top 32 plus alternates this year. :)

On a more serious note, looking outside the top 32, I've seen quite a few posters who've made it into the top 32, but been posting on 'Clark Give Me Feedback' threads... But then I've probaby seen more posters posting on the 'Clark Give Me Feedback' threads who haven't made a top 32 yet, and in any case have no idea how the numbers and percentages crunch...
But statistics and logic are sometimes over-rated. You can use them to prove that the moon is not made of green cheese, but is made of camembert.

Shadow Lodge

Charles Evans 25 wrote:


But statistics and logic are sometimes over-rated. You can use them to prove that the moon is not made of green cheese, but is made of camembert.

Argh! Who told!? I'll have someone's head for this!

Contributor, RPG Superstar 2010 Top 16, 2011 Top 32, 2012 Top 4

Clark Peterson and Neil Spicer pretty much agreed and wrote:
We don't know until you do.

Thanks, gents! That's cool you get to wait and be surprised with the rest of us.

Paizo Employee Director of Brand Strategy

Charles Evans 25 wrote:

I seem to remember suggesting a 'superstar of superstars' contest last year, and after this year there should be enough top 8 contenders to go around....

(Assuming all top eights are still alive, insane*, and able + willing to post, that is...)

* Insane as in 'genius'. :D

The thought of doing this contest more than once a year just gave me an aneurism. And we'll have to go quite a few more years before we'd really get enough contestants who could otherwise not enter to make a finalists rematch showdown sorta thing. Of the top 8 in the first year, only three have not yet had a cover credit in a Paizo RPG product. All seven of the top 8 who didn't win the whole thing in the two subsequent years could still participate, though. That brings the total to only 17 eligible entrants.

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