Deadly exchange of fire between two Koreas
This is worrying - its the kind of mess that can suck major powers into a regional conflict.... not good for anybody.
RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32, 2010 Top 8
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You think they don't want that? the Norks have spent the last roughly 20 years pushing the boundaries. Now they're upping the ante.
Norks?
You probably don't want to know what that means in Australia. Nor for that matter what it means according to Urban Dictionary.com.
Actually no, it's the slang I'm used to for 'North Koreans'. Always made me think of 'snorks'
Funny NZ slang story:
They laugh.
"What?"
"Erin, rootin' around is slang for 'having sex with' down home."
Whether it's true or not, it was funny at the time.
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Deadly exchange of fire between two Koreas
This is worrying - its the kind of mess that can suck major powers into a regional conflict.... not good for anybody.
Not good.
And as usual the North blames the South and vice versa (I know who I tend to believe).
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RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32, 2010 Top 8
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Sounds like a true story (we use the same slang term and meaning in Australia).
Good to know. We laugh about it now, but she was very flusted at the time.
Even more off topic, but game related, I made a thread
You think they don't want that? the Norks have spent the last roughly 20 years pushing the boundaries. Now they're upping the ante.
Norks?
You probably don't want to know what that means in Australia. Nor for that matter what it means according to Urban Dictionary.com.
Actually no, it's the slang I'm used to for 'North Koreans'. Always made me think of 'snorks'
Funny NZ slang story:
** spoiler omitted **Whether it's true or not, it was funny at the time.
:-)
RPG Superstar 2009 Top 8
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Lee Myung-Bak is going to have a hard time not responding. His popularity is quite low and he sold himself as a hardline alternative to former administrations' "Sunshine Policy".
The North's provocation is a bit worse than par-for-the-course but the timing is worse than ever.
This could get bad. I doubt it, but it is not as unlikely as the last time.
Agreed. Let's hope cooler heads prevail, but that won't exactly bring back the dead, nor does it make North Korea's policy okay.
China needs to tell North Korea to pull their collective heads in.
There is a fine line in what the South Korean response should be (I don’t know the answer). A strong response could escalate the situation, an insipid response will likely just invite more attacks of this style in future.
My only concern is if China or Japan get involved. No matter what North Korea starts, either country will be more than happy to finish, quite bloodily.
China needs to tell North Korea to pull their collective heads in.
China does not seem to be able to control them. The Chinese military is quite worried. Jets everywhere.
I'm just across the water, on the Shandong peninsula in China. We have a naval base and air base here.
I am suspicious that someone in the Nork military is pulling this crap without command from above.
There is a fine line in what the South Korean response should be (I don’t know the answer). A strong response could escalate the situation, an insipid response will likely just invite more attacks of this style in future.My only concern is if China or Japan get involved. No matter what North Korea starts, either country will be more than happy to finish, quite bloodily.
A few Nork boats need to mysteriously sink.
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China needs to tell North Korea to pull their collective heads in.
China does not seem to be able to control them. The Chinese military is quite worried. Jets everywhere.
Maybe if China made it clear that continuing to provide them aid and oil and such at mates rates was conditional on their good behaviour it might help.
Or maybe not, who knows? Maybe that would cause North Korea to further flex their muscles. Maybe it would just hurt the people without doing much to the military and ruling elite.
What city are you in again?
Weihai.
If they throw nukes at Seoul I'll be moving.
China needs to tell North Korea to pull their collective heads in.
China does not seem to be able to control them. The Chinese military is quite worried. Jets everywhere.
Maybe if China made it clear that continuing to provide them aid and oil and such at mates rates was conditional on their good behaviour it might help.
Or maybe not, who knows? Maybe that would cause North Korea to further flex their muscles. Maybe it would just hurt the people without doing much to the military and ruling elite.
This could be their way of trying to get more money from China.
I'll probably see the flash when the nukes blow.
Meh, silly North Korean military.
I'm close to Seoul and it seems people here are far less worried than those on the outside. News headlines tend to cause that.
I see this as one of many isolated incidents that SK has no good way of dealing with if they don't want to escalate it further. And I hope they don't want to...
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I really hope China stays the hell out of this.
And North Korea's marching still looks @#$%ing stupid.
Meh, silly North Korean military.
I'm close to Seoul and it seems people here are far less worried than those on the outside. News headlines tend to cause that.
I see this as one of many isolated incidents that SK has no good way of dealing with if they don't want to escalate it further. And I hope they don't want to...
Is it a kind of "business as usual" feel in those parts?
I really hope China stays the hell out of this.
And North Korea's marching still look @#$%ing stupid.
Is it a kind of "business as usual" feel in those parts?Meh, silly North Korean military.
I'm close to Seoul and it seems people here are far less worried than those on the outside. News headlines tend to cause that.
I see this as one of many isolated incidents that SK has no good way of dealing with if they don't want to escalate it further. And I hope they don't want to...
Well, it is a very visible one, and far more obvious who did it than the Cheonan incidence (which I'm not 100% sure was done by North Korea), but it is only in one specific location and likely due to the SK military exercise there.
Also I think the patience of the SK government is about to run out. SK stopped flood aid that they previously promised, but I don't see how that will affect the NK's military actions. Should the NK do anything similar within a short time frame I believe the SK will retaliate and knock out a large part of the NK's artillery bases (as SK-president Lee Myung-bak announced yesterday).
They better not mess up my graduation, though! ;)
I really hope China stays the hell out of this.
And North Korea's marching still looks @#$%ing stupid.
Is it a kind of "business as usual" feel in those parts?Meh, silly North Korean military.
I'm close to Seoul and it seems people here are far less worried than those on the outside. News headlines tend to cause that.
I see this as one of many isolated incidents that SK has no good way of dealing with if they don't want to escalate it further. And I hope they don't want to...
China is the only country North Korea will consider listening to.
I'm all for dropping a 5 tonn nickle/iron slug from orbit on Pyongang(sp)
"Oh, you got hit by a meteor? We'll send in relief forces immediately."
That wouldn't be a bad idea...hehe
I'd hope for a solution with less civilian casualties though (that counts for North Korean civilians too), but that may be difficult.
Edit: And China definitely needs to get more involved.
Maybe if China made it clear that continuing to provide them aid and oil and such at mates rates was conditional on their good behaviour it might help.
Or maybe not, who knows? Maybe that would cause North Korea to further flex their muscles. Maybe it would just hurt the people without doing much to the military and ruling elite.
North Korea isn't far away from starving. Any reduction in the aid that China, South Korea and the UN provide them with would likely trigger a massive humanitarian crisis that would dwarf the mid-1990s famine that killed 1.5 million people there. And of course, sixty years of propaganda and indoctrination means that the starving North Koreans' preferred place to flee to is China. China doesn't want 25 million starving North Koreans trying to cross its border. Thus, China keeps the aid going.
According to some reports, there has been greater criticism of North Korea in China in recent years, including 'academic' studies of the worth of the North Korean alliance to China. Given the nature of information control in China, it's unlikely such comments could be made without the government's permission. So, basically, China has been saying to the North, "Don't screw around and assume we'll be there to bail you out from your own stupidity, as we might not be."
That said, if war broke out my guess is that a strong Chinese military force would cross the border and occupy Pyongyang as a 'peacekeeping measure', ending the conflict and preventing the victorious American, South Korean and Japanese forces from reaching the capital (similar to what Russia tried to do in Kosovo, with mixed results). They might not fight for North Korea, but they'd certainly have a say in the situation.
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RPG Superstar 2009 Top 8
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Well, China has refused to (publicly) blame or admonish North Korea for the incident, and is instead chastising South Korea and the US for escalating tensions.
They're not helping. Lee Myung-Bak is going to be forced into acting. A firm admonishment of North Korea by China could ease up the pressure a little. Coming so close after the Cheonan incident, this is just too much.
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RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32, 2010 Top 8
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Well, China has refused to (publicly) blame or admonish North Korea for the incident, and is instead chastising South Korea and the US for escalating tensions.They're not helping. Lee Myung-Bak is going to be forced into acting. A firm admonishment of North Korea by China could ease up the pressure a little. Coming so close after the Cheonan incident, this is just too much.
Conspiracy theory
And before anyone says I'm Obama-bashing, I think this 'feeling out process' started with the collision of the Intel plane back in W's administration.
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RPG Superstar 2009 Top 8
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Well, China has refused to (publicly) blame or admonish North Korea for the incident, and is instead chastising South Korea and the US for escalating tensions.They're not helping. Lee Myung-Bak is going to be forced into acting. A firm admonishment of North Korea by China could ease up the pressure a little. Coming so close after the Cheonan incident, this is just too much.Conspiracy theory
** spoiler omitted **
Not sure that I'd expect reliable results for that feeling out. A 150 odd shells into South Korean territory does not compare to a full out invasion.
More shelling today. This is why 27-year-old boys should not be 4 star generals.
Well, China has refused to (publicly) blame or admonish North Korea for the incident, and is instead chastising South Korea and the US for escalating tensions.They're not helping. Lee Myung-Bak is going to be forced into acting. A firm admonishment of North Korea by China could ease up the pressure a little. Coming so close after the Cheonan incident, this is just too much.Conspiracy theory
** spoiler omitted **
Actually, despite our differences in political views, I agree with your spoiler.
And I wouldn't say the general's incompetence was because of his age, I'd just say he was incompetent when it comes to this. Sneak attacks make everyone look bad.
Well, China has refused to (publicly) blame or admonish North Korea for the incident, and is instead chastising South Korea and the US for escalating tensions.They're not helping. Lee Myung-Bak is going to be forced into acting. A firm admonishment of North Korea by China could ease up the pressure a little. Coming so close after the Cheonan incident, this is just too much.Conspiracy theory
** spoiler omitted **Actually, despite our differences in political views, I agree with your spoiler.
And I wouldn't say the general's incompetence was because of his age, I'd just say he was incompetent when it comes to this. Sneak attacks make everyone look bad.
Its not a conspiracy its policy... China will let North Korea jump around on its leash as long as the US supports Taiwan... It is a second front or alternate crisis should China decide to take Taiwan by force...
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You think they don't want that? the Norks have spent the last roughly 20 years pushing the boundaries. Now they're upping the ante.
Edit: maybe send them some condoms?
And they have spent the last twenty years being squeezed by the USA. If you recall 20 years ago the USA really started to push them to get rid of their Nuclear Weapon Program. That meerly dug the hole that everyone finds themselves in. They wanted to be treated as a Nuclear Power - not pushed.
They're not helping. Lee Myung-Bak is going to be forced into acting. A firm admonishment of North Korea by China could ease up the pressure a little. Coming so close after the Cheonan incident, this is just too much.
Conspiracy theory
** spoiler omitted **At some point quite possibly but probably not anything like 2012. The problem essentially comes down to getting assets ashore. the PRC don't yet have enough naval transport to pull off an invasion. Worse yet its near impossible to build up the kind of naval transport in the area without basically tipping their hand.
They are currently on the cusp of being in some kind of position to do this. They probably can acquire air superiority - the Russian designed SU-27s they have in the area far outclass the F-16's the Taiwanese have.
Even so the PLA Navy just does not have any meaningful numbers of fast assault craft. Civilian transport is an option but its near suicide. Taiwan is bristling with surface or surface missiles. A slow tanker loaded with troops would be pretty much a sitting duck.
The Taiwanese army is just to large to make any kind of quick strike possible - they have something to the tune of 400,000 troops under arms and use conscription meaning they have between 3-4 million civilians that have had basic military training and are still fit enough to fight. How the PLA is supposed to get enough troops onto the island to win this kind of a war is the real problem. Beating Taiwan's army is a job for 30 well trained divisions at a minimum and that is pretty small - that assumes that the divisions are all crack elite marine divisions trained in amphibious warfare. China just does not have that many divisions with this kind of training. They could go with 60 or better yet 90 not quite as well trained divisions but now we are talking about an unbelievably large naval build up - something along the lines of the Normandy invasion in scale and scope.
We have seen the US transport these kinds of numbers of troops in the recent past (Gulf War I particularly) and it took the US about 6 months. Its just not an overnight campaign, the numbers involved are just to big for that. The PLA needs to establish a bridge head and then keep feeding troops into the fray. It'd take months to pull it off and all of this presumes no one comes to Taiwan's aid.
If the US does then even as few as six US nuclear submarines spells game over for the PRC. the US subs would torpedo every ship bigger then a rowboat that tried to cross. The PLAN (People's Liberation Army - Navy) simply does not have the kind of modern anti-submarine warfare equipment needed to catch US submarines. Not to mention that the US would be able to regain air superiority over the straight.
Finally, even presuming that the US does not intervene the PLA still probably has problems. Taiwan probably does not have any active nuclear weapons, but much like the Japanese, they have all the components they need to create them. Its very likely they have everything they need to assemble a handful of nuclear weapons on hand.
Japan has insured that it could become a nuclear power in about three months should the need ever arise and its probable that Taiwan has taken similar measures.
Really the only way for PRC to take the island is to start off with a full scale nuclear strike. Nuke the crap out of it and then occupy the radioactive wasteland left behind. Thing is the PRC will never do that as it totally defeats the whole purpose of getting the island in the first place.
In the end the Chinese are good at realpoltic and very patient. They are a major rising power, Taiwan can probably be convinced to join them as some kind of semi-autonomous province in the next 20-30 years. The military solution works quite well at convincing Taiwan to never go to far down the path of complete independence. Plus - if that does not work - well the current balance of power is changing. There will come a day within the next 30 or so years when the South China sea is patrolled by battle fleets of ultra modern PRC warships perfectly capable of fending off any American fleet that tried to poke its noise into 'Chinese affairs'. On or before that day Taiwan will likely come to the realization that being able to negotiate their status within China is better then being conquered and having that status dictated to them.
A final note on this is that China messing around by having North Korea antagonize South Korea really does not serve China's purposes if they where planning a military attack on Taiwan. Pretty much the first thing the US did when hostilities escalated the other day was dispatch warships to South Korea. Those warships are all now no more then a few days away from the Taiwan straight. Last thing China would want if they where to try an attack would be extra US naval assets in the theatre.