I'd say this totally depends on your party: with Tiny hut or similar magic or more mundane skills/class features at their disposal: no chance for the ogres.
Neither of the two magic users (as per the Anniversary Edition) nor the leveled ogres have any spells/skills ect which might help.
So you could either set up patrols (two standard ogres and a leveled one) to search the area nonetheless.
Or you could bring in Razmus. He has the class features and skills for going hunting and I always thought it a waste of story to just present him as a XP bump.
Ruyan.
While this is certainly possible (my group fled after their first attempt failed via the hidden/blocked staircase to the eagles' aerie and returned to the fort via the tunnels) I think treidenb has no influence on the place chosen and is seeking advice on how to handle such a situation from a GM perspective.
Ruyan.
I'd ask myself what the motivations are for the ogres to be in the fort. We know that Lucretia is waiting for the group on the dam to finish their work before she moves on. Are the ogres that came with content with having slaughtered the Black Arrows (the subtext of the encounters within suggest they're at least still celebrating it) or is Jaagraath looking to move in permanently?
If I were just enjoying my victory and half my force got wiped out in camp, I'd probably head back to the real stronghold. If I were looking to make this my new home, I'd definitely try and track down those who attacked before they had a chance to regroup. Whatever sortie I sent out could also double as a messenger to the dam to see how close they are to being done.
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While this is certainly possible (my group fled after their first attempt failed via the hidden/blocked staircase to the eagles' aerie and returned to the fort via the tunnels) I think treidenb has no influence on the place chosen and is seeking advice on how to handle such a situation from a GM perspective.
Ruyan.
Yeah, on rereading it, you're absolutely right. Not sure how I managed to interpret the question as being from the point of view of one of the players.
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Thanks, all. Yes, it is a question from a GMs point of view and how the forces inside would react to the courtyard battle. It just seemed like an interesting decision for the players to make, but most are new and used to PFS where encounters are short. They want to heal and rest long enough to regain spells, but I assumed the party would have kept going and depleted most of their resources by the end.
Ah, the 15 min workday to go all out...
One possible wrench:Vale is still with the party. He hasn't had an opportunity to escape.
Well, somebody has to stand on watch during the night... depending on how much you want to screw the party, he could even steal some of their stuff
Ruyan.
A lot of spoiler here so unless you're GMing RotRL, I would avoid.
First in the nit department, I assume the Black Arrow who hasn't had a chance to escape is actually Kevan and not Vale as treidenb previously listed.
Based on the loss of all the ogres "in the courtyard" Jaagrath has lost 3 of his 6 ogre fighters and 18 of his 26 standard ogres. A substantial loss in force. Survivors are: Jaagrath, Dorella, 3 ogre fighters and 8 orges. And of course Lucretia.
Technically there is another ogre fighter and 4 more ogres at the dam - assuming normal AP progression, but their condition and morale is poor and they would have to fight back through the trolls to return. Not to mention whichever messenger was sent to them. I'll be ignoring them but it's an option if you want to reinforce the keep.
Jaagrath or Lucretia could also call to the clanhold for reinforcements but travel there and back may put their arrival in doubt. If any are sent. And assuming the pc's renew their assualt immediately in the morning.
It's beyond the description in the AP, but you could assume some number of ogres (and 1 ogre fighter) are out hunting/scavenging and return after the pc's depart. (If you're interested in upping the resistance.)
As pointed out above, the occupants of the fort have limited ability to pursue or hunt the retreating pc's. Given it's a class skill for humanoids, barbarians and fighters and the environment in which they live, it's odd that none of the ogres have any ranks in Survival. They could of course attempt it untrained...
All that is a backdrop to what the ogres would do in response to the pc's retreat. What they do would be based on answers to some questions:
Were they seen leaving? Do the ogres know anything about their attackers - number, makeup, direction of departure?
Did the pc's take any precautions - like the tiny hut mentioned above? Even without any pc rangers, the Black Arrows (and Shalelu if she's along) should certainly be able to assist in removing tracks and hiding the group campsite. This is a chance for Windstrike to continue his treachery - revealing the group to bumbling ogres who would have otherwise missed them.
Jaagrath strikes me as arrogant and built on bluster and intimidation. He can't retreat and keep his reputation. Nor do I think that option would occur to his limited brain (Int 6.) He'll rage about, perhaps abusing some of the survivors and then put them to watch on the walls or searching the nearby woods. The ogres should be very alert for at least 2-3 days after the attack. They should not be found engaged in recreational activities like trying on armor that doesn't fit, arts and crafts with dead Black Arrows, etc.
Lucretia is an interesting case. She could, if desired use her dream ablity to send a message to Barl or the ogres on the dam. But I don't think she would. She doesn't give a darn about the ogres but she desperately wants the dam taken down. She won't do anything to support pulling ogres from the dam. Indeed, if it looks like Jaagrath is going to lose the keep, she's likely to take some of the survivors to the dam herself. Not in the AP tactics, but she can spam charm monster at will. She should have most if not all the ogres as her thralls. Indeed, she should order some of the ogres at the keep to keep the attackers attention while she and the rest move to the dam to take it out. (This is well outside the tactics and narrative of the AP, however.)
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My group slaughtered the ogres in the court yard and those on the first floor of the keep. When they went upstairs and ran into the rest, they fled into the woods since they were depleted of most of their spells and healing. The idea was to rest up and return the next day. I had them return to an empty keep. All remaining occupants, including Lucretia, had fled to the Clanhold. That was an EPIC battle!!