If the person being tailed is looking for it, I'd make it opposed Perception vs Stealth rolls, with Perception winning any tie.
THEN of course, if caught, and the "tailer" thinks to try it, he would need to make a Bluff check opposed to Perception again to try and look like a bystander, deflecting suspicion.
Disguise is only if there is an element of identity involved, and situational adjustments up or down can be applied. Perform? Perform what, exactly? Not sure how that would work into tailing someone, or noticing you are being tailed.
Since you are doing a House-world w/PF rules... I am not too ashamed to bring up "Houserule" on a "Rules" board - I'd also houserule that if the person being tailed is not looking for it, he has no chance to spot it. Basically, no check would be needed tailing someone who is not expecting to be tailed.
Here are some observations from another thread:
http://paizo.com/threads/rzs2o18y?Opposed-Skill-Check-Ties
I'd stick with a simple opposed stealth vs perception to avoid being spotted following someone The more crowded it is the easier it is to remain unseen - circumstance bonuses abound I'm sure.
I'd always allow a perception check to spot a tail, but I would maybe roll it secretly and allow the tail a further circumstance bonus if unsuspected.
I respectfully disagree, dragonhunterq...
I know as a fantasy RPG our inclination is to apply mechanics to all kinds of things, but...
You are imposing a chance of failure where one would not normally exist. If someone is not looking back or over their shoulder (not thinking they might be followed), how would they perceive someone following them at a discrete distance? The only way would be if the tailer somehow exposed themselves by noisily attracting attention to themselves.
The chances of a even somewhat skill tailer accidentally bumping into someone and causing a noisy result or tripping badly enough to attract the attention of his mark would be basically nil. Even under the situation of a big crowd, where the likelihood of bumping or tripping would be slightly higher, the ambient noise and nature of the bustling would cover an accident without drawing attention.
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It is one of those things that can be resolved in several ways.
I would keep it at a single opposite roll, but the skills could vary depending on how the tailing guy want to hide his activity.
I strongly disagree with the people saying "you should declare that you are looking around to notice something".
Firstly, if you try to impose that rule it will bog down the game as the players, in a setting where being tailed is a common occurrence will ask for rolls very often. all said and done you will end with a lot of useless rolls. After a time that don't increase suspense, it increase annoyance.
Secondarily, people that have reasons to be tailed have reason to suspect they can be tailed. And even if they don't have reasons to be suspicious there is always a chance to notice something. to me the best way to go is to use take 10 a lot, with appropriate modifiers for being on alert (let's say that the villain entering his secret hideout, he will be the moment in which he will be on watch), distracted (the tailed guy is doing is groceries) an so on.
Same thing for the tailing guy. He is going to do a long term activity, not something that will be resolved in a few seconds. If he roll every round you can take 1 for him, as he will roll it sooner or later.
Unless the goal is to have him fail or have a skill level that can't be beaten by the other party it isn't a good idea to have him roll hundred of times.
It would be possible to add a dice roll at key moments, like the tailed guy checking his surroundings before ducking into the alley that lead to his hideout or before entering an house, but those should be relatively rare.
About the skill to use, as I was saying, I would use different skills depending on how the guy tailing the target want to do it.
"I am a harmless guy doing his groceries" Bluff vs Sense motive
"I use the crowd to hide my presence" Stealth vs Perception
"I hide myself in a spot from which I can cheek the whole square." again Stealth vs Perception
by night "I am a drunkard returning from the tavern" Disguise or Bluff against Sense motive
"I set up a clown show in the square corner and look people goings" Perform (Comedy) vs Sense motive.
and so on.
Making it varied will make it more enjoyable.