I've been thinking a lot about a crossbow main Fighter build.
Yeah, stop looking at me like I'm crazy for going with a crossbow rather than a Composite Longbow, where's the fun in retreading such well trodden ground? Also I just like the idea of a crossbow.
Why Fighter?
Armour Training. That's the big deal with trying to have a high dex based ranged combatant you keep hitting armour limits which then mean your armour is worthless. I kept trying to make rogue work but you're so dependant on being able to get sneak attacks and I'm jsut fed up of GM's quibbling over the broken stealth and detection rules.
Also the full BAB... very nice.
How can a crossbow compete without a strength bonus to damage?
Basically, dumping Dex can give you such a bonus that you can use deadly aim with the same overall chance to hit and with the same bonus damage.
For example STR 14 DEX 14 is a +2 strength bonus and +2 to your attack roll from dex.
But for nearly the same point-buy cost you can go STR 8 DEX 17 which is a +3 dex bonus to hit and as an odd number you can use the +1 ability score to immediately bump it up again at Level 4 when deadly aim's cost goes from -1 to-hit to -2 to hit. So at level 4 you've basically got the same bonus to hit and bonus the base-damage roll.
Yeah but as you NEED Deadly-aim to be competitive how can you pile on more damage?
You can't, that's what I like about it. The problem with balance comes in how you can keep on piling on bonuses to damage all the time from everywhere and things get way too splatty. This actually allows you probably far more useful flexibility which is to give up damage to increase the chance to hit. It infuriates me no end to just not be able to land hits, I want to be able to be landing hits as often as possible, even if only base weapon damage.
That's what I've found from playing Fighter a lot, too many rounds wasted unable to get into position AND strike and I far more often wanted the opposite of power-attack/deadly aim, I wanted to give up damage for higher hit chance as I was just getting such bad luck or the enemy armour was too damn high.
I avoid the dangers of taking strength damage as a Comp Longbow fighter does. And I'm even more dex focused with decent armour as well so my AC should be quite good. And I can go prone to use my crossbow, something I'd always been terrified to do till in case an enemy ran up to me but STAGGERPROOF BOOTS let you stand up without provoking. Fantastic.
What about feat costs?
They are killer but fighter gets a lot of feats, a very tight build even with the bonus feat from not using Hero Points. Something like:
1st Point Blank Shot, Deadly Aim, Rapid Reload (Light Crossbow)
2nd Rapid Shot (yay, full-attack 4 levels early!)
3rd Weapon Focus (Heavy Crossbow)
4th Crossbow mastery (Re-train Rapid-Reload for heavy Crossbow)
5th Weapon Specialization (feat tax for Point Blank Master)
6th Snap Shot (this is mainly as a defence mechanism to shoot anyone who tries a combat maneuvre on me)
7th Point Blank Master (in for when I get cornered)
8th Bullseye Shot (I did the math, it's worth it)
Spoiler:
This is independent of what your actual bonus to hit is and what the enemy's AC actually is, all that matters is what number on the d20 you need to hit and the chances of getting AT LEAST ONE HIT if you EITHER take a single attack with a +4 to hit more than before, or two attacks each with a -2 to hit relative to before.
18 to hit = 1-17 misses
If you need 18 to hit then for either of the rapid-shot to hit you need to roll a 20. The way you figure out the chance of ever getting the chance of a 20 in two rolls is to figure out the chance of getting not-20 two times in a row, then 1 minus that probability is the chance of getting 1 OR 2 hits.
Rapid shot = 0.95 x 0.95 = 0.9025 miss => 9.75% 1-2 hit chance (within that chance, 0.25% chance of two hits)
Bullseye = 0.65 miss => 35% hit chance
17 to hit = 1-16 misses
Rapid shot = 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 miss => 19% 1-2 hit chance (within that chance, 1% chance of two hits)
Bullseye = 0.6 miss => 40% hit chance
16 to hit = 1-15 misses
Rapid shot = 0.85 x 0.85 = 0.7225 miss => 27.75% 1-2 hit chance (within that chance, 2.25% chance of two hits)
Bullseye = 0.55 miss => 45% 1 hit chance
15 to hit = 1-14 misses
Rapid shot = 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64 miss => 36% 1-2 hit chance (within that chance, 4% chance of two hits)
Bullseye = 0.50 miss => 50% 1 hit chance
14 to hit = 1-13 misses
Rapid shot = 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.5625 miss => 43.75% 1-2 hit chance (within that chance, 6.25% chance of two hits)
Bullseye = 0.45 miss => 55% 1 hit chance
13 to hit = 1-12 misses
Rapid shot = 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 miss => 51% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.40 miss => 60% 1 hit chance
12 to hit = 1-11 misses
Rapid shot = 0.65 x 0.65 = 0.4225 miss => 57.75% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.35 miss => 65% 1 hit chance
11 to hit = 1-10 misses
Rapid shot = 0.6 x 0.6 = 0.36 miss => 64% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.30 miss => 70% 1 hit chance
10 to hit = 1-9 misses
Rapid shot = 0.55 x 0.55 = 0.3025 miss => 69.75% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.25 miss => 75% 1 hit chance
9 to hit = 1-8 misses
Rapid shot = 0.50 x 0.50 = 0.25 miss => 75% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.20 miss => 80% 1 hit chance
8 to hit = 1-7 misses
Rapid shot = 0.45 x 0.45 = 0.2025 miss => 79.75% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.15 miss => 85% 1 hit chance
7 to hit = 1-6 misses
Rapid shot = 0.40 x 0.40 => 0.16 miss => 84% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.10 miss => 90% 1 hit chance
6 to hit = 1-5 misses
Rapid shot = 0.35 x 0.35 = 0.1225 miss => 87.75% 1-2 hit chance
Bullseye = 0.05 miss => 95% 1 hit chance (same after this as only a nat-1 will miss)
As you can see, Bullseye shot is really worth it when you find you can't hit them when your d20 lands on a 14 or 15. A +4 to hit is way more likely to land any hit at all and the odds of landing two hits are about as likely as getting a natural 20 with a single hit.
PS; with the extra attack from BAB, if you can't hit with a 15 then Rapid shot's -2 and how the next serial attack from high BAB is effectively a -5 from your base BAB you can only hit on a Natural 20. This makes the extra attack from that have almost no effect on the final chance.
9th Precise shot (feat tax) Advanced weapon Training =[Burrowing shot]
10th Dodge (feat tax)
11th Improved Precise shot (What else?)
12th Mobility (death and feat taxes)
13th Shot on the Run (finally, what I want!) Advanced Weapon Training = Armed Bravery (huge Will Save bonus)
14th Parting Shot (I guess)
15th (no idea what feat to get here)
16th Pinpoint Targeting (aww yeah, for when you HAVE to hit)
Lv17 Feat (I dunno) AWT=[Versatile Training]
Anyone else have any ideas on this?
Like is it worth it doing all that for shot on the run is there another way to get moving and shooting other than all those feat taxes?
This is also hugely predicated on me getting some way to use Gravity Bow with reasonable reliability and without huge cost.
My main problem is that Stealth is not a fighter skill and I don't particularly want to burn a trait just on getting it yet most archetypes change too much.
Shot on the run is weak, i don't know why would you want it.
I would take the same feats up until level 7, then at level 8 I would take greater weapon focus since +1 to three shots (and eventually more) is better than a +4 to just one shot.
Then I would take improved critical hit and the critical feat line with blinding critical and stunning critical.
There is a gunslinger archetype that lets crossbows attack touch AC and do full dex damage instead of half. I would take that to level 5, and then go into fighter or another class.
Light crossbows only need one hand to be fired so you might even be able to keep your buckler shield bonus to AC. That would make up for losing the armor training if that is the only reason you want to go fighter.
The Weapon Master's Handbook has a couple of things of interest to crossbow Fighters: the Abadar's Crossbow Divine Fighting Technique (ranged Steal and later on ranged pinning of people to stuff) and the Overwatch Style Feat chain (which looks like it's designed entirely to make the Crossbowman Fighter archetype really viable - basically allowing more readied actions per turn).
Shot on the run is weak, i don't know why would you want it.
I would take the same feats up until level 7, then at level 8 I would take greater weapon focus since +1 to three shots is better than a +4 to just one shot.
Then I would take improved critical hit and the critical feat line with blinding critical and stunning critical.
THAT was it! Improved critical, how could I forget it? Ehhh, where to fit it in there? I can't take Bullseye shot at Level 8, a pre-requisite is "precise shot" DAMMIT!
The idea with shot on the run is to make use of cover to stop being shot at or charged when it's not by turn. But it's not worth the cost compared to getting a mount, what do you need for a mount? If your mount only takes one move action per round you don't take any penalties on your attack do you? Does that mean you can have the mount move 15ft out of cover, I make a full attack with a crossbow, then move back into cover with the remainder of my mount's single move action? Rules seem to say so.
Also, the way I see it is that Weapon's Focus will apply ALL the time, it will apply to EVEN THE INITIAL HIT to determine if I should try rapid-shot or bullseye shot. The theory of bringing +1 to each shot kinda presumes the GM won't respond by finding a way to increase enemy AC, but I don't think they'll quibble so much about me using a feat to be able to hit.
And I just like the idea of a mechanic like that... CHOICE. Balancing odds and making a compromise. That's fun.
Adding +1 to my character sheet isn't as fun.
Revised feat plan:
8th Improved Critical (yeaaah 17-20 critical threat range! Really spices the game up.)
9th Precise shot (feat tax) Advanced weapon Training =[Burrowing shot]
10th Bullseye Shot
11th Overwatch style (because my bet is they start trying to avoid my barrage and rush me)
12th NO IDEA!
13th NO IDEA!
14th NO IDEA!
15th NO IDEA!
16th Pinpoint Targeting (I'm still dead set on this one)
The idea with shot on the run is to make use of cover to stop being shot at or charged when it's not by turn.
I still don't think is a good idea. But if you don't want to being charged then improved snap shot and I'm 99% sure there is a feat that stop enemies from moving if you hit them with an AoO.
The idea with shot on the run is to make use of cover to stop being shot at or charged when it's not by turn.
I still don't think is a good idea. But if you don't want to being charged then improved snap shot I'm 99% sure there is a feat that stop enemies from moving you hit them with an AoO.
I know the feat, the problem is that it is absolutely only for a melee attack... not a ranged attack which acts like a melee attack.
Well, there's always the Stamina Pool combat trick for Snap Shot.
I can spend 2 stamina points to increase my threatened reach... but that's only going to shoot them, and it's not even going to be triggered if they have reach as they'll enter my threatened square 10ft away but to trigger and AoO they must LEAVE a threatened square. Well, if I had a Magic Bolt with the Magical Ability "Driving" I could turn that attack of opportunity into a trip attempt. Maybe.
Really, I don't want to end up next to them. If a dire tiger charges, getting a single AoO off won't do much, I'll get one extra attack but then I'll be out of the fight till someone kills it. Same for if just some guy with a sword charges me, the Snap Shot is mainly to blunt any CM attempts, ultimately if they end up close I know I'll end up having to 5th step back round after round making full-attacks.
If I really get cornered I have a backup plan.
Wrist sheath, spring loaded, with a Flame Fountain Firework inside.
One hand my crossbow as a free action, Drop the firework into my hand as a swift action, ignite it as a move action, standard action to hit them, though my strength is crap it's only a touch attack I've got to make, and strength penalty doesn't apply. Wail on him as I 5ft step around till I can withdrawal action.
That is, until I get Point Blank Master.
@WraithStrike Thanks for the tip on the Gunslinger archetype 'Bolt Ace', I might take a single level dip into that class just to take the special Bolt Ace deed 'Sharp Shoot (Ex)' which is essentially the same as Pinpoint Targeting except I can get it WAY earlier though at the cost of a Grit point which is a fairly finite resource.
Well, have a couple things to note about the build. First, you're getting precise shot way too late in my opinion. The amount of times where creatures aren't going to be in melee with one of the PCs should be fairly rare at low level, and that -4 to hit really hurts. Second thing is your math for bullseye shot is flawed. You'll often be more accurate by sheer number of attacks. As an example, say at level 6 you're hasted, using rapid shot while full attacking. Now say that you have to roll a 15/20 to hit with your attacks, that means 3 attacks with a 30% chance to hit and one with a 5% chance to hit, all added up, that means you have a 95% chance to hit once. Same situation with Bullseye shot would mean you only need a 9 to hit, or a 60% chance to hit once. Even without haste, you're still 5% more likely to hit not using bullseye shot, and having to roll a 15 to hit shouldn't be common for a full BAB character. The only reason to use Bullseye shot is if you're using one magic arrow, and you really need it to hit.
Also, I might suggest an alternate build, if you're just looking for good damage out of a crossbow build, can I suggest bolt ace 5/urban barbarian/bloodrager 1/mutation warrior x. You get your fighter feats a little later, and give up on armor training, but you gain dex to damage and 2 great boosts to dex that stack. In fact, you'll likely end up wanting to just wear haramaki or getting a wand of mage armor because it will end up being more AC than full plate with armor training.
I didn't even notice how late he picked up precise shot, but that should have been one of this first feats. You can't do damage until you hit, and precise shot makes sure you have a better chance at hitting.
Well, have a couple things to note about the build. First, you're getting precise shot way too late in my opinion.
Well... I always hoped I could avoid that if the allies I am covering used reach weapons:
http://www.d20pfsrd.com/gamemastering/combat
"If you shoot or throw a ranged weapon at a target engaged in melee with a friendly character, you take a –4 penalty on your attack roll. Two characters are engaged in melee if they are enemies of each other and either threatens the other. (An unconscious or otherwise immobilized character is not considered engaged unless he is actually being attacked.)
If your target (or the part of your target you're aiming at, if it's a big target) is at least 10 feet away from the nearest friendly character, you can avoid the –4 penalty, even if the creature you're aiming at is engaged in melee with a friendly character."
So enemies will be 10ft away most of the time anyway.
Plus, this is such a tedious rule that doesn't make any damn sense most of the GMs I have had won't bother with it. It's just so amazingly counter intuitive especially how it doesn't get any worse with grappling and STACKS with soft cover. As a GM I don't specifically exclude it but I only ever remember it when it's obvious like two medium creatures grappling with each other.
"Now say that you have to roll a 15/20 to hit with your attacks that means 3 attacks with a 30% chance to hit and one with a 5% chance to hit"
I'll get to haste in a bit but you seem to be missing something.
If I need a 15-to-20 WITHOUT the penalty of rapid shot then WITH the penalty of Rapid Shot I need a 17-20 to hit!
Because of the -2 to my attack bonus I'd need to roll +2 higher to still hit.
In contrast with using Bullseye shot granting a +4 to hit I now only need an 11 to hit. That's a 50% chance.
The chance of getting 17-20 on either-or-both rolls is the NULL CHANCE of getting 1-to-16 both times which is 1 - (0.8x0.8) = 0.36 = 36%. The chance of getting it on both attacks is 4% which you cannot add to the 36% as within that 36% is the 4% that is a double hit.
It's not much better with the serial attack from high BAB as that is at a -5 and on top of Rapid fire if natural-20 wasn't considered an auto-hit I couldn't hit them at all. What's the chance of ANY of the shots hitting if I know I needed a 15 to hit:
1 - (0.8x0.8x0.95) = 0.392 = 39.2%
So... yeah... 50% is a better chance than 39.2%
And there's another thing to consider, using expensive arrows like Bane or some other special quality, I don't want to have to use three to yet still have a 60% failure chance. When you need high rolls, stacking it all into one seems to be better.
But if I had haste... I wouldn't invoke rapid shot.
Rapid shot grants only one extra attack for ALL ATTACKS to be at a -2 penalty. That is terrible if you need high rolls to hit.
I would stick with regular serial-BAB attack then the extra attack so Full BAB + Full BAB + BAB-minus-5. Lets presume I got Haste before hand as it lasts so freaking long at high Caster Level so the +1 to hit changes nothing, whatever my attack bonus is to whatever their AC is I still need a 15 to hit. 53% chance for 1-3 shots to hit... almost the exact same. My maths fails here on trying to figure out the chance of 2 hitting but I estimate it's around 9%.
So yeah, with Haste, full-attack is better.
But my experience with GMs is too often they won't let you just stand there, the twin benefit of haste usually becomes more important which is the high movement speed. With Stamina pool I can run fecking far, and then get off a damn good shot. With Stamina pool I can use Bullseye shot at a Swift action so I can take a move action such as stand up from a boulder I had dropped prone behind to take one really-damn-good-shot. Also, if I dip into Bolt Ace I can use a SINGLE grit point for a SINGLE shot be against Touch AC per round.
"The only reason to use Bullseye shot is if you're using one magic arrow, and you really need it to hit."
Oh sorry, wrote all that spiel and missed that bit.
Yeah, I plan on using magic ammunition a lot, I like to spread my options and not become a one trick pony.
"that means 3 attacks with a 30% chance to hit and one with a 5% chance to hit, all added up, that means you have a 95% chance to hit once."
Just to clear this up, that's not how you combine probabilities.
The chance of rolling 16 or higher after 4 rolls of a d20 is not 100%. Obviously as you must have rolled four d20 die in a row and never gotten a 16 or higher. Something can't be right here.
16 to 20 is 5 possibilities, 5/20 is 25% so while it is 25% each 25% + 25% + 25% + 25% = 100% right?!?!?
Look at it this way: the chance of you ever getting 16 or higher ANY TIME is the OPPOSITE of getting 15 or lower EACH TIME. So figure out the chance of getting 1-15 four times in a row. 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.3164
That's how you combine probabilities.
Okay, so what's the opposite of that.
1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836 = 68%
As you can see, you there isn't actually a way of guaranteeing a way of getting 16 or higher, which makes sense, it just gets more and moore likely the more times you roll a d20.
"Also, I might suggest an alternate build, if you're just looking for good damage out of a crossbow build, can I suggest bolt ace 5/urban barbarian/bloodrager 1/mutation warrior x."
I'm looking for competitive damage, dex to damage of going full 5 levels of Bolt Ace so that I'm now adding full dex to damage seems to be a great way to piss off the GM.
Plus, I'd find myself at level 5 without Armour Training, with Dex to damage the GM will NOT be dropping any nice darkleaf of mithral armour, I'm going to be hitting dex limits or be in extremely skimpy armour. Now I've got low AC and GM is thinking of how to "limit" the OP ranged attacker.
And going Bolt Ace first means I definitely won't get a Stamina Pool as if it's in the game at all it's a Fighter main feature. Also, a serious lack of feats yet abilities which I don't want.
I don't see any synergy with urban barbarian and a ranged build except a Dex Bonus which I cannot use as my dex is maxed out by almost any armour I wear. If I go armour free and let my dex sky-rocket then GM will gank me for my hubris.
Yeah, Hubris is almost a formalized game mechanic, those who get too splatty - especially at the cost in AC - anger the gods who send untold misfortune your way. Why does it anger them? It's too damn powerful.
Bloodrage as well as Barbarian Rage is "extracting the Michael" as they say around my parts, it just won't be allowed. It's like taking the first level of Rogue then first level of Ninja.
" In fact, you'll likely end up wanting to just wear haramaki or getting a wand of mage armor because it will end up being more AC than full plate with armor training."
I don't think it will as GM just will refuse to drop any Dex boosting items for me. And even +4 dexscore from rage, in come the attacks and ailments which cause fatigue. Dex-score +4 is only a +2 to AC. Compared with how I can be in medium armour with enhancement bonuses AND high dex, that's way better.
Sorry, guess I should have mentioned the percentage calculated wasn't the possibility of getting one hit, but for working out averages for DPR wherein you can have more than 100% to hit because statistically you will be likely to hit more than once, not because it is guaranteed that you will hit. It generally produces numbers that are more easily comparable.
Now, the formula you used does calculate the probability of all attacks missing, and the inverse is the statistical likelihood of one or more attacks landing. These numbers don't really show how much you'll be losing in a single attack versus a full attack, but even comparing the single attack to the full attack at needing a 16 for rapid shot and 10 for bullseye shot it's still more likely for rapid shot to hit. Bullseye shot has a 55% chance to hit. Rapid shot has a 60% chance to hit once or more. But grouping these complicates the issue. If you look at these as distinct instances things because more clear.
So for the bullseye shot, you only have the 55% chance to hit on one attack, so on average you will get 0.55 hits a round. Using rapid shot while hasted you will have you will have 3 attacks that all have a 25% chance to hit, and one at 5% to hit. On average you will have .8 hits around. Note, this is not equal to 80% chance to hit once, but an average of .8 hits per round. If you apply this to damage dealt, say an average of 10 damage per attack (just to make things easy, not because that's a likely average damage at level 6), with bullseye shot you do on average 5.5 damage a round, 8 damage a round with rapid shot.
As for everything else, reach doesn't usually work because it doesn't usually allow for a 10 foot gap between combatants, unless using whips, enlarge person, or lunge to extend beyond the normal reach, which is a lot to ask of all your teammates instead of taking one feat.
As for not having access to common magical items, the stamina system, or your GM punishing you for your "hubris", I don't have a lot of advice. Mithral chain shirt is still a good investment, though not quite as good as plate with armor training but pretty good, never played with the stamina system, and never played with a GM who thought that punishing his players was acceptable.
Surprised nobody mentioned the Vital Strike feat chain, for those instances in which you want to make 1 big shot instead of a lot of little ones, especially if you are going to use Bullseye Shot against a really tough target. This gets better if you can use a Heavy Crossbow, and better if you can somehow get reliable access to Gravity Bow (one way would be if you were a Ranger instead of a Fighter/Bolt Ace, and being a Ranger also gets you off the hook for some feat prerequisites, although unfortunately not those for Bullseye Shot) -- and even better if you can do both. One thing if you're going to use the Vital Strike feat chain: The extra dice aren't multiplied on a critical hit, so even though the critical hits are still nice, you probably don't want to build around them unless you manage to pick up some kind of effect that you can use frequently that activates only on a critical hit. Vital Strike is a Standard Action to use while giving you a good fraction of a Full Attack in DPR (more if you're trying to hit something that has a really high AC or DR you can't bypass), so you have your Move Action left over for Bullseye Shot or if you actually want to move.
Sorry, guess I should have mentioned the percentage calculated wasn't the possibility of getting one hit, but for working out averages for DPR wherein you can have more than 100% to hit because statistically you will be likely to hit more than once
I cannot work with such non-standard terms.
Higher than 100% chance is mathematically impossible, and you can't actually extend any probability beyond 100% just because that's the probability of more than one hit compared to the probability of only one hit.
"Now, the formula you used does calculate the probability of all attacks missing"
It's mostly there, as I can calculate the chance of all attacks missing so take the inverse of that then the probability of all attacks hitting. And within that find the chance of both the attacks hitting, that is really minuscule.
"even comparing the single attack to the full attack at needing a 16 for rapid shot and 10 for bullseye shot it's still more likely for rapid shot to hit. Bullseye shot has a 55% chance to hit. Rapid shot has a 60% chance to hit once or more."
Well, you've moved it BACK, if I am hitting on a 10 with bullseye shot that means I'm hitting on a 14 at my regular attack. That's NOT where I said I thought Bullseye shot would be worth it.
my working:
This is the odds without haste. Needing a 16 or higher to hit means 1 to 15 misses, that's a nice even 0.75 miss rate. The serial attack from High BAB still needs a natural 20 to hit.
So, Probability of all three attacks missing: 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.95 = 0.5343 miss chance
0.5343 miss chance means the chance of any of the shots hitting is 1-0.5343 = 0.4656 = 46.56%
Compared to 55% hit chance for bullseye shot!
If I did have haste I wouldn't use rapid shot as I'd have an overall higher chance to have any of my attacks hit and within that a higher chance of it being a double hit. But I probably won't be able to get Haste!
my working:
As haste allows an extra attack without EACH attack being at a -2 to hit that means I calculate based on 14-or-higher hitting so 1-to-13 missing, 065 miss chance. Also, the serial attack actually can hit on only a 19 so 0.9 miss chance.
So, Probability of all three attacks missing: 0.65 x 0.65 x 0.9 = 0.38025 miss chance
0.5343 miss chance means the chance of any of the shots hitting is 1-0.38025 = 0.61975 = 62% chance of any shot hitting
Much better than bullseye shot AND I actually have a better chance of hitting with three shots with haste without Rapid Shot than four shots with Rapid Shot. Not only is there a higher chance of any of the shots hitting there is also higher chance of more than one shot hitting.
"reach doesn't usually work because it doesn't usually allow for a 10 foot gap between combatants"
It doesn't say a "10ft gap", it says "10ft away" if you are adjacent to another creature you are 5ft away from them, with reach attacking each other you are 10ft away.
"never played with the stamina system, and never played with a GM who thought that punishing his players was acceptable."
Well, they are kinda jerks about it but I empathise with them, there IS the ongoing problem of players getting way too damn powerful relative to other players. It becomes too hard to balance encounters when one person is pouring out so much damage so reliably. To be clear, if you have a +15 to hit and can always get off several hits per round with each hit doing almost 20 damage then if you try to increase the AC to be a challenge for them then other players simply cannot compete.
What you describe of being so high hitting, such high damage bonus but with such poor armour options, it's a glass cannon, glass cannons get smashed. I'm not looking for a glass cannon, I am looking for a balanced class with lots of gameplay options. Going all in with Bolt Ace just seems to make for an extremely straightforward yet powerful class. I've played classes which became simply about piling on pluses to the normal attack roll and it got boring because it was predictable.
What I really like about going Deadly Aim focused build is I have options I value, being able to scale down damage for higher hit chance. I just really hate going a whole round without hitting anything at all and sometimes I can just tell a foe is very close to death and just needs a small amount of damage to finish them off. Bolt Ace's big bonus is being able to resolve against Touch which just isn't that necessary at early levels as so few enemies have high armour anyway, what's more important is flexibility in damage able to give up attack bonus to always hit or getting rapid-shot ASAP to be able to full-attack when I don't have to move. That's what I didn't like about playing the first 5 levels of melee fighter, I didn't need to move yet I was still limited to only one attack I just standard-action attacked.
Yet going a ranged focus build it would always be a critical choice to make, either risk standing still to make a full attack or keep moving to stay out of melee range.
Okay, I have a bit of time, so I'm going to explain a couple things here. First, the DPR calculations are about working out averages, not about calculating the probability of an event, which will give you much more useful numbers to work with. First things first, I agree that it's impossible to have a probability over 100% for any event, but it is entirely possible to have an average of over 100% of a hit, wherein percentage is not probability of hitting, but the number of average hits in percentile form.
There are a few different problems with using probability over using averages, particularly that probability works on a bell curve that makes easy comparisons difficult. Take an example of making an attack where you hit on anything but a 1, versus making 4 attacks where you hit on anything but a 1. The single attack will have a 95% chance to hit the target, the 4 attacks will have, what, a 98.7% chance to hit? 3.7% doesn't seem like much of a difference, hardly worth dedicating any resources to. Now compare that to averages. The one attack will, on average hit 0.95 times per round, the 4 attacks will hit 3.8 times a round. There's a massive difference there that isn't easily noticed in the extra 3.7% chance to hit.
As for shooting into combat, you are considered to occupy the entirety of your square, as is any creature, though tiny and smaller creatures can share a square without penalty. There's no "well I'm in the middle of my square, and he's probably in the middle of his square" for this. The order of distance goes adjacent , 5 feet away, 10 feet away. So that does mean a 2 square gap.
As for a Bolt Ace being a glass cannon, I don't know where you get that idea. It's still a D10 hit dice character with 2 good saves, an in class AC boost, and, while only having light armor proficiency, is also heavily dex focused. Really all this means is that you're trading flat footed AC for touch AC, with very little difference to your total. Adding the one level of either urban barbarian or urban bloodrager will get you medium armor proficiency, and the levels in mutation warrior will get you heavy armor proficiency, if you really want to wear full plate, though mithral kikko or breastplate are probably better purchases, and will keep you in 30 foot move speed.
As for being able to move and shoot, it's a little feat intensive, but nature soul, animal ally and boon companion will give you an animal companion to ride, which, while having certain disadvantages, like the near necessity of being small, or using the undersized mount feat. It will allow you to move once every round while full attacking though. You can perform the same with a purchased animal, but survivability becomes an issue at higher levels.
As for what's appropriate for your table, sorry, I can't really help here. You know your table, and what's an appropriate power level, so apply whatever advice as you see fit. I'm not trying to tell you that you have to play with these options, just that they are good options. If you prefer to play straight fighter, that's not a bad option, and certainly playable. Especially considering the heavy start up cost of a crossbow build.
Okay, I have a bit of time, so I'm going to explain a couple things here. First, the DPR calculations are about working out averages, not about calculating the probability of an event, which will give you much more useful numbers to work with. First things first, I agree that it's impossible to have a probability over 100% for any event, but it is entirely possible to have an average of over 100% of a hit, wherein percentage is not probability of hitting, but the number of average hits in percentile form.
There are a few different problems with using probability over using averages, particularly that probability works on a bell curve that makes easy comparisons difficult. Take an example of making an attack where you hit on anything but a 1, versus making 4 attacks where you hit on anything but a 1. The single attack will have a 95% chance to hit the target, the 4 attacks will have, what, a 98.7% chance to hit? 3.7% doesn't seem like much of a difference, hardly worth dedicating any resources to. Now compare that to averages. The one attack will, on average hit 0.95 times per round, the 4 attacks will hit 3.8 times a round. There's a massive difference there that isn't easily noticed in the extra 3.7% chance to hit.
As for shooting into combat, you are considered to occupy the entirety of your square, as is any creature, though tiny and smaller creatures can share a square without penalty. There's no "well I'm in the middle of my square, and he's probably in the middle of his square" for this. The order of distance goes adjacent , 5 feet away, 10 feet away. So that does mean a 2 square gap.
As for a Bolt Ace being a glass cannon, I don't know where you get that idea. It's still a D10 hit dice character with 2 good saves, an in class AC boost, and, while only having light armor proficiency, is also heavily dex focused. Really all this means is that you're trading flat footed AC for touch AC, with very little difference to your total. Adding the one level of either urban barbarian or urban bloodrager...
I'm not following this dubious DPR rules as AC of enemies is just too variable even within a round. My damage is going to change hugely depending on the AC of the enemies I am trying to hit.
h = Chance to hit, expressed as a percentage. Remember, this will never exceed .95 or go below .05.
d = Average damage per hit.
s = Average precision damage per hit (or other damage that isn't multiplied on a crit).
t = Chance to roll a critical threat, expressed as a percentage.
c = Critical hit bonus damage. x2 = 1, x3 = 2, x4 = 3.
I don't know the chance to hit, probably will change based on AC which changes from target to target as well as what attack bonuses.
I don't know the damage per hit as i may or may not be using Deadly Aim, also type of bolt used, special range effect, etc
Precision damage also varies too much
" First things first, I agree that it's impossible to have a probability over 100% for any event, but it is entirely possible to have an average of over 100% of a hit, wherein percentage is not probability of hitting, but the number of average hits in percentile form."
No. You're now talking about a new thing, where you have two outcomes of a certain chance the chance of both of those things is found by MULTIPLYING the probabilities together, not adding them together.
If if you have a 50% chance of landing two hits in one round and the same chance the same round then the chance of landing two hits each round is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 = 25% chance.
"Take an example of making an attack where you hit on anything but a 1, versus making 4 attacks where you hit on anything but a 1."
I will consider this idea but you must realise that this trend does NOT continue at the other end of the spectrum. You seem to be missing a really critical point that this is NOT FOR WHEN I HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO HIT! When I have a low chance to hit it's better to have one good shot with high bonus than a load of hits with even worse odds.
You are talking about one end of the d20, the end where I said that Bullseye Shot wouldn't be worth it. You seem to be missing the nuance that I will fight many different and varied foes, some with very low AC compared to my attack bonus and others with relatively high AC.
"The single attack will have a 95% chance to hit the target, the 4 attacks will have, what, a 98.7% chance to hit?"
The chance of ANY of those 4 attacks hitting is 99.999375%
The chance of ALL FOUR of those attacks hitting is 81.450625%
Yes, those are great odds... but when I have an attack bonus of +15 from around Lv8 I'm only going to be getting that if they have AC17 which is abysmally low. Actually, it would have to be even lower AC than that as I am hitting even with the penalties of Rapid Shot and how the serial attack from BAB is at a -5. So they would have to be at AC10 or lower. So are they flat footed and naked?!?!?
You've taken an extreme example, lets look at the opposite extreme: you only hit on a 20
18.5% chance to land even one hit.
30% chance to land one hit with Bullseye Shot.
"The one attack will, on average hit 0.95 times per round, the 4 attacks will hit 3.8 times a round."
No it won't.
STICK WITH PROBABILITIES.
If you are trying to figure out the chance of landing two hits taking one hit each round where the chance is 0.95 then you multiply 0.95 by 0.95.
0.9025 chance of hitting with one attack in each round.
Again THIS TREND DOES NOT CONTINUE WHEN YOU NEED HIGHER ROLL ON D20 TO HIT!
I need to have a plan for when I face dudes with freaking huge AC.
If I'm facing an enemy with only AC18 or something, yeah, I'll full attack rapid shot. But the issue is when I need a really high roll to hit AND because he's so tough I need to keep moving to avoid him splatting me.
"The order of distance goes adjacent , 5 feet away, 10 feet away. So that does mean a 2 square gap."
You try convincing a GM of that.
The rules are ABSOLUTELY EXPLICIT, they repeatedly and consistently switch between "5ft reach" and "able to attack foes in adjacent squares" ditto for "reach out to 10ft away" with the square beyond that.
"As for a Bolt Ace being a glass cannon, I don't know where you get that idea."
Lack of armour training.
You know what high dex and only light armour or mage armour sounds like? A Wizard. In fact that's what most wizards I have seen have been rocking, only +4 armour and their dex-bonus. D10 hit die only translates to another 2hp on average per level with all else being equal (both wizards and fighters generally put their favoured class bonus into HP and have the same ability and incentive to but point-buy into Constitution).
"Really all this means is that you're trading flat footed AC for touch AC."
No because my dex is going to be maxed out at +4 if I wear a chain shirt. My dex can be 1 higher with lesser armour but that armour is lesser. Even with expensive drop my dex is going to be the same or worse and with worse armour.
I am giving up both dex potential AND armour.
All this and lose Stamina pool, far fewer feats, abilities I don't want just to get a very limited use of resolving one attack against touch. Thanks for the tip on Bolt Ace but it's going to be a single level dip at most at some later level.
Now, I'm going to start this by saying I had to specifically look the terms for this up, because I took math in french, and cannot remember the french terms for this, let alone know the english ones. It makes explaining math hard, but how often do I need to explain math.
"STICK WITH PROBABILITIES."
I am, we're just using 2 different calculations. You're using the calculation for 2 or more independent events, ie P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B), along with the probability of events not occurring, 1 - P. This formula works for figuring out if we're going to hit or not, which, while certainly useful, isn't the be all, end all of accuracy.
The formula I'm using (sometimes simplified, because the skewing of numbers isn't significant enough for the extra effort) is the formula to figure out the mean number of successes in a given round. μ = Nπ. This gives us the average number of attacks we will hit with in a given round, meaning possibly numbers higher than 1.
Using the first formula it's possible to have 2 different sets of variables that will end up very comparable, that when entered into the second, will be quite different. Accuracy in Pathfinder should be measured not only by how likely you are to hit, but how often. It's also this mean number that is used with the DPR calculations.
And that's the problem with 1 highly accurate attack versus 2 or more less accurate attacks. The single attack has to compete with the fact that there could be more than one success on multiple rolls. I will admit there is a point where bullseye shot becomes useful, but the more attacks you have, the higher the target AC has to be to make it worth it.
"Lack of armour training. You know what high dex and only light armour or mage armour sounds like? A Wizard."
Clearly someones never seen a wizard with 22 AC at level one before. But more seriously, the problem with wizards is more complicated, first they start out with 6 HP + con + FCB. That's 4 less than the fighter, given equal con, plus an extra 2 HP every level. Level 10 that's 22 HP, which while significant, isn't actually too bad if planned around. Second, they have half BAB, and no need for strength, which means terrible CMD. Third, the AC they gain is mostly from spells that don't scale, don't have a reason to put money into armor until 9-16k is pocket change, and most of their defensive spells are fairly short duration, meaning they likely need to buff to be at full capacity, and suffer if being surprised.
You, however don't have a number of these problems if taking bolt ace. HP, and CMD should be fine, maybe not great, but fine. You can wear armor, which means you have access to the cheapest form of AC boosting. Now, both fighter and bolt ace have built in AC boosts, fighter has armor training, bolt ace has nimble. Both abilities scale every 4 levels, and nimble comes one level earlier.
"No because my dex is going to be maxed out at +4 if I wear a chain shirt."
Even mithral shirt will give you 10 AC between dex and armor, roughly equivalent to wearing full plate for similar cost. If you single class bolt ace, your AC would be equivalent to fighter, unless you end up buying mithral breastplate or full plate, gaining 1 or 2 AC for 4k and 9k gold respectively, which is nice at level 10+ but when similar AC is purchasable elsewhere for similar gold, isn't that impressive. Also, if multiclassing into one of the other classes mentioned, you do gain heavier armor proficiency, but would lose the nimble bonus if going heavier than mithral plate.
"All this and lose Stamina pool, far fewer feats, abilities I don't want just to get a very limited use of resolving one attack against touch. Thanks for the tip on Bolt Ace but it's going to be a single level dip at most at some later level."
I think this may be the crux of it though. My suggested build has 6 fewer stamina points, and 3 fewer feats for 5 grit powered abilities, dex to damage, 2 different dex boosting abilities that stack with enhancement bonuses, plus eventually the ability to fly, or grow an extra arm to hold a shield while shooting and reloading. I think it sounds like a good trade, but I can't tell you how to have fun, so if regular fighter seems like it fits your character concept, or would just be more enjoyable, you should play that. I just hope you wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the benefits of the suggested build, just cause it may not be what you originally envisioned.
Now, I'm going to start this by saying I had to specifically look the terms for this up, because I took math in french, and cannot remember the french terms for this, let alone know the english ones. It makes explaining math hard, but how often do I need to explain math.
"STICK WITH PROBABILITIES."
I am, we're just using 2 different calculations. You're using the calculation for 2 or more independent events, ie P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B), along with the probability of events not occurring, 1 - P. This formula works for figuring out if we're going to hit or not, which, while certainly useful, isn't the be all, end all of accuracy.
The formula I'm using (sometimes simplified, because the skewing of numbers isn't significant enough for the extra effort) is the formula to figure out the mean number of successes in a given round. μ = Nπ. This gives us the average number of attacks we will hit with in a given round, meaning possibly numbers higher than 1.
Using the first formula it's possible to have 2 different sets of variables that will end up very comparable, that when entered into the second, will be quite different. Accuracy in Pathfinder should be measured not only by how likely you are to hit, but how often. It's also this mean number that is used with the DPR calculations.
And that's the problem with 1 highly accurate attack versus 2 or more less accurate attacks. The single attack has to compete with the fact that there could be more than one success on multiple rolls. I will admit there is a point where bullseye shot becomes useful, but the more attacks you have, the higher the target AC has to be to make it worth it.
"Lack of armour training. You know what high dex and only light armour or mage armour sounds like? A Wizard."
Clearly someones never seen a wizard with 22 AC at level one before. But more seriously, the problem with wizards is more complicated, first they start out with 6 HP + con + FCB. That's 4 less than the fighter, given equal con, plus an extra 2 HP every level. Level...
I'm not going to find it very useful to calculate a flat damage per round as there's something very important:
(1) My past results are fixed and known,
(2) I can change my means and mode of attack every round
See, if I know from the damage of a full attack before It may be a total waste to try to go for an attack which has the chance to get more hits if I only need one-hit to finish them off.
"This gives us the average number of attacks we will hit with in a given round, meaning possibly numbers higher than 1."
This is making WAY TOO MANY DAMN ASSUMPTIONS!
It assumed I will attack the same way against the same sort of enemies and not even adjust my bonuses to types of attacks based on what I know has hit. And you're not talking about probability any more, you made a rather unsafe conclusion on average hits per round that is no longer probability. Probability isn't getting over 100%. And really, if I knew I hit them with the previous 4 shots then I may know I only need one more hit to finish them off.
"I will admit there is a point where bullseye shot becomes useful, but the more attacks you have, the higher the target AC has to be to make it worth it."
Yeah, and high-AC is going to happen. Not least from stuff like improved cover.
A combatant-archer without Armour Training is still very poor in AC options especially if she is trying to grow her dex.
While CMD numbers have inherent potential to be better it's fundamentally a crappy situation, wizards can cast defensively as a base ability, I need two feats (Crossbow Mastery with Stamina Pool to reload without provoking and Point Blank Master) to use a ranged weapon without provoking.
"the AC they gain is mostly from spells that don't scale"
Mostly the same, Mage Armor is going to end up the only option that can really free me from dex-limits.
The thing with invoking special materials to boost Dex bonuses at early levels is that I shoot my wad way too early, where else have I got to grow? If I'm on point buy 15 as I expect then I'll have not-much wealth per level, it's going to wipe out my early level wealth but much later I have nowhere to grow. Moving to heavier armours only have worse dex limits. If I want to get above a dex modifier of +6 I need to ditch ANY armour and try to spam mage armor.
I tried that and it became WAY too damn tedious, I couldn't get wizards to cast it on me.
I want to be able to use regular armour to max out my dex potential and then after that at much later levels depend on special materials to allow dex to be even higher. Armour being the base of AC it's effective to give it magical enhancements. There's untapped potential with how fighter is "Loads of feats, high dex with armour class" synergistic with "crossbow builds need lots of feats can be totally dex focused"
"I just hope you wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the benefits of the suggested build, just cause it may not be what you originally envisioned."
Hmm, maybe you are right, I was resistant at first, but I have actually looked into this. The problem persists that I'm essentially going to be forced to have an AC setup like a wizard but with far less ease of casting mage armor. I simply cannot do better than Mithral chain shirt which is +6 dex limit. Everything else is one step forward in dex but one step back in AC. Mage Armor becomes the only way but I tried a class like that, it was so annoying.
The only spell I'd be willing to be dependant on is Ant-Haul, something I can quite easily get lasting 4 hours from only a 52gp potion.
