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A Russian economist and political scientist is predicting that the United States will break up into at least six different countries before the end of Obama's term. He says that it is because people will realize that Obama cannot work miracles and so they will lose faith in the whole American system. The six regions he predicts are:
the Pacific Coast
The South
Texas
The Atlantic Coast
The Native American States (North and South Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, and Oklahoma)
The Northern Tier
Of course his analysis omits Hawaii, and has Alaska becoming part of Russia again. There is also a lot of states that don't seem to fit into these bubbles. What do you think?
Riiiiiggghhhhtttt. Although, technically, I wouldn’t mind watching all the states dissolve and letting the Federal government run things.
I wonder if he was reading the Rifts sourcebook when he made his “prediction.”
Not to mention I bet Canada would fight like hell to get Alaska if it went into play.
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Bunch of nothing from the same country that claimed "we will bury you", the guy is obviously using the USSR as a model of the USA. It would take a lot more than a complete economic colaspe to break up the U.S. It would take apocalyptic events like decades of famine or military or religious coups to break up the union.
Department of "yeah, sure". I think this is wishful thinking, nearly the same thing has happened to the USSR, and now Russia is trying to get its superpower status back. If the US were to fall apart as well, this would be much easier for Russia. But the US did not suppress twenty different nations for 70 years or so. Not all is well within the US, of course, but I don´t see any more separatist movements than, say, 20 years ago.
If one country is liable to fall apart in the near future, it is probably an asian one, which I deliberately won´t mention by name here. There is enough social unrest in asia to threaten them, judging from the news over here, of course.
Stefan
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A Russian economist and political scientist is predicting....
<snip>
...Alaska becoming part of Russia again. There is also a lot of states that don't seem to fit into these bubbles. What do you think?
I think he's so full of excrement his eyes are brown. There is, AFAICT, no native sentiment in Alaska favoring reunification with Russia. Lumping the Great Lakes states (MN, WI, MI, OH, IN, IL...) together with PA, IA, & MO is also kind of ridiculous, and what happened to NE? Stuck between the Dakotas, CO, & WY; also, OK isn't really contiguous with the rest of the "Native American States" (yeah, there's a tiny border with CO). And where's NM? Part of TX now? Oh, that's going to fly. And ID ends up where--"Northern Tier" or "Pacific Coast?" I can't see ID going along with CA in a split along some sort of common interest lines.
Bottom line: Wishful thinking is my guess. He wants to see the breakup of the USSR visited on its greatest enemy.
I think this Russian scientist has played too much Shadowrun...if that's possible.
The only part of the US this Ruskie has any clue about is Texas. ; ) It is clear he doesn't understand American dynamics from the inside.
@ Stefan & Woodford on wishful thinking - Exactly.
Director of Narrative
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I wonder if he was reading the Rifts sourcebook when he made his “prediction.”
I think he was reading this. The breakdown is eerily similar.
someone's been eating the little packets that they enclose in shoe boxes...
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Lumping the Great Lakes states (MN, WI, MI, OH, IN, IL...) together with PA, IA, & MO is also kind of ridiculous, and what happened to NE? Stuck between the Dakotas, CO, & WY; also, OK isn't really contiguous with the rest of the "Native American States" (yeah, there's a tiny border with CO). And where's NM? Part of TX now? Oh, that's going to fly. And ID ends up where--"Northern Tier" or "Pacific Coast?" I can't see ID going along with CA in a split along some sort of common interest lines.
I could see Idaho splitting in this scenario, the eastern half going with the "Indian states" while the west ends up with the Pacific Coast. Oklahoma should go with Texas the way things are being divided, and become part of the Oil Free States, same with Louisiana. New Mexico ends up as part of Azatlan and rejoins with Mexico. For another take on this idea I would recomend The Nine Nations of North America by Joel Garreau.
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I wonder if he was reading the Rifts sourcebook when he made his “prediction.”I think he was reading this. The breakdown is eerily similar.
That's funny, because the guy did say that the Pacific Coast would essentially become New China because of all the immigrants from China that live there.
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A Russian economist and political scientist is predicting....
<snip>
...Alaska becoming part of Russia again. There is also a lot of states that don't seem to fit into these bubbles. What do you think?
I think he's so full of excrement his eyes are brown. There is, AFAICT, no native sentiment in Alaska favoring reunification with Russia. Lumping the Great Lakes states (MN, WI, MI, OH, IN, IL...) together with PA, IA, & MO is also kind of ridiculous, and what happened to NE? Stuck between the Dakotas, CO, & WY; also, OK isn't really contiguous with the rest of the "Native American States" (yeah, there's a tiny border with CO). And where's NM? Part of TX now? Oh, that's going to fly. And ID ends up where--"Northern Tier" or "Pacific Coast?" I can't see ID going along with CA in a split along some sort of common interest lines.
Bottom line: Wishful thinking is my guess. He wants to see the breakup of the USSR visited on its greatest enemy.
I can tell you right now if this fantasy ever did happen the states themselves would fracture and different regions would reform along social and ethnic lines, i.e. southern California, most of Arizona and New Mexico would consolidate. Also if the USA did split up it would only be following the break up of Mexico and Canada and every other nation out there.
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For several months before the election and especially now that Obama is the president-elect, Russia has been ratcheting up the rhetoric. Ever since the break-up of the USSR, at which point they lost the moniker "superpower," the Russians have had to deal with the reality that their country isn't nearly as much of a player on the world stage as it was 20-30 years ago. The fact is that since 1988, they simply haven't been relevant. And it's driving them bonkers.
However, an entire new generation has come of age in Russia. Having frown up with childhood memories of their once great country falling into rot and disrepair, they are ripe for this kind of propaganda. They crave it. Their puppet president (backed up by Putin) is only happy to indulge.
-Skeld
I agree with the other posters. The dynamics of the US are not like those of other countries where tribes/ethnic groups/whatever have stayed in the same regions for forever and are more homogeneous. I remember reading a stat that said less than half of Americans live in the state in which they were born. We move around a lot. I have lived in 5 different states myself. I, like a good many other Americans, consider the entire country my home.
Besides, didn't we already have a scuffle over this separation thing a while back. Call me a Yankee sympathizer, but this Southerner concurs with Lincoln: the Union must, and shall be, preserved.
I think this Russian scientist has played too much Shadowrun...if that's possible.
I know I've got 12/24/12 marked on my calendar. :D
But the US did not suppress twenty different nations for 70 years or so.
Not as directly as the Soviets did, anyway.
There was (still is? I don't know) a regional myth going around where I grew up that the entire eastern half of Washington state was going to shoot for statehood and consider taking the northern half of North Idaho with it, and reform into a new state with SpokAlene or Coeur d' Kane being the capitol. I always thought that wasn't a bad idea myself, seeing how Spokane is so isolated from the west side of the state and how Boise feels like it might as well be in Florida to most North Idahoans.
That's about as radical a state restructuring plan as I've heard, much less, having the USA break up into regional countries.
Not expecting this to happen as suggested. But I wouldn't be surprised if some individual states wouldn't start discussing of leaving the union (Texas and California at least).
If I were to bet where this scenario was most likely however, I'd go for India.
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Director of Brand Strategy
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If we didn't break up over the last eight years, I don't think it's in the near future. Having a president who can't work miracles is better than one who can't do anything at all. The only time the US has broken apart it was in two, and didn't stay split, so I think that six is a bit optimistic on his part. I think the chances of any secession coming anytime soon are infinitesimally small in any case. What credentials does this "scientist" have to add some validity to his prediction?
Just so you know, I agree that his rhetoric is a bunch of hot air. I just find it an interesting topic of discussion, especially considering how many distopian and cyberpunk science fiction proposes a similar scenario.
No, David, it's too late! You ran your nutty colors up the mast and now we all know!
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I agree with the other posters. The dynamics of the US are not like those of other countries where tribes/ethnic groups/whatever have stayed in the same regions for forever and are more homogeneous. I remember reading a stat that said less than half of Americans live in the state in which they were born. We move around a lot. I have lived in 5 different states myself. I, like a good many other Americans, consider the entire country my home.
Besides, didn't we already have a scuffle over this separation thing a while back. Call me a Yankee sympathizer, but this Southerner concurs with Lincoln: the Union must, and shall be, preserved.
Hmmm... interesting line of thought... for a southerner...
(Just kidding!)
If I were to bet where this scenario was most likely however, I'd go for India.I would bet on China. Tibet and Guangxi are already showing signs of open defiance that will only increase with time.
Just yesterday, there was a piece of news talking about open riots occurring there often (as in near-daily) in our paper, so this would be my guess as well.
Stefan
I don't see it happening in China. They have the muscle and the will to use it. They demonstrated this in 1989, and they are more powerful now. Didn't they keep the lid on Tibet most recently?
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Bella Sara Charter Superscriber
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...a regional myth going around where I grew up that the entire eastern half of Washington state was going to shoot for statehood and consider taking the northern half of North Idaho with it....I used to hear similar things about Upper Michigan and a chunk of northern Wisconsin.
And don't forget the war between MI and OH over Toledo!
RPG Superstar 2009 Top 8
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A Russian economist and political scientist is predicting that the United States will break up into at least six different countries before the end of Obama's term. He says that it is because people will realize that Obama cannot work miracles and so they will lose faith in the whole American system. The six regions he predicts are:
the Pacific Coast
The South
Texas
The Atlantic Coast
The Native American States (North and South Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, and Oklahoma)
The Northern TierOf course his analysis omits Hawaii, and has Alaska becoming part of Russia again. There is also a lot of states that don't seem to fit into these bubbles. What do you think?
Well, let's see. If Quebec separates shortly after, Canada gets chopped in half and then falls apart.
BC joins the Pacific Coast forming the West Coast Economic Corridor.
The Atlantic Coast march on the Maritimes making New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and PEI colonies.
The aboriginal peoples of Northern Quebec rebel, joining The Greater Coalition of Native American States.
The Prairies form their own country and establish a close diplomatic partnership with Texas.
Yep, I think we got ourselves a campaign setting.
The novel "Black Man" by Richard Morgan explores similiar themes.
The central part of the former USA is called 'jesusland' by all characters. It has a proper name but 'jesusland' has a nice ring to it ;>
I could see the break up of the country into smaller regional hubs of states over the next couple of centuries, I suppose. But I can't imagine a crisis making something like that happen within the next 8 years. I think we would need to see federal government responsibilities devolved into a new, regional level of federalism designed to better coordinate policy between nearby states before we'd see a US-breakup scenario appear.
It took an issue as huge as slavery and the expansion of slavery into new territories and the effect that would have on the balance of power in the federal goverment, after 40-odd years of barely diffused crises, to do it the last time. I have a hard time imagining something like that occuring again without decades of tremendous turmoil to presage it.
Whatever happens NM, CO and OK will never rejoin TX unless by force.That could be arranged. Heathy?
I don't think Texas would want Oklahoma. Too much of a rivalry .
The Texans do have almost as many pet tigers than there are living in the wild...
I used to hear similar things about Upper Michigan and a chunk of northern Wisconsin.
That would be the state of Superior.
And don't forget the war between MI and OH over Toledo!
I still think we made out like bandits on that one, but then, they probably do too.
I think this Russian scientist has played too much Shadowrun...if that's possible.I know I've got 12/24/12 marked on my calendar. :D
Too true. I'm just hoping I don't roll Ork.
I don't think Texas would want Oklahoma. Too much of a rivalry .Whatever happens NM, CO and OK will never rejoin TX unless by force.That could be arranged. Heathy?
We would just change the name of it to "Northern Pasture". And we only want the parts of NM back that we sold when hard up...naturally, the best parts.
We would just change the name of it to "Northern Pasture". And we only want the parts of NM back that we sold when hard up...naturally, the best parts.I don't think Texas would want Oklahoma. Too much of a rivalry .Whatever happens NM, CO and OK will never rejoin TX unless by force.That could be arranged. Heathy?
Yeah, that'll work.
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Yeah, that'll work.We would just change the name of it to "Northern Pasture". And we only want the parts of NM back that we sold when hard up...naturally, the best parts.I don't think Texas would want Oklahoma. Too much of a rivalry .Whatever happens NM, CO and OK will never rejoin TX unless by force.That could be arranged. Heathy?
You can have the four corners but we get El Paso.
Hell no! Come and Take It!
A Russian economist and political scientist is predicting that the United States will break up into at least six different countries
It would make more sense if he had said 50 different countries.
When a block of states forms one of his six countries which state government gets to lead? Dozens of civil wars will ensue. Mexico and Canada will swoop in to mop up.
The final war to take place in heartland of America will be between Canada & Mexico (the 'Canaxico War' as it will called it in the history books).
I wonder if there will be any killer robots in this war?
Thus Texas will stand supreme!
Texan ain't an ethnicity...it's a metaphysical state.
Texan ain't an ethnicity...it's a metaphysical state.It's a state of denial and bad presidents.
We decided to export our bad politicians...kick-em upstairs. And as for whatever that other thing your implying is, we deny it.
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RPG Superstar 2009 Top 8
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A Russian economist and political scientist is predicting that the United States will break up into at least six different countriesIt would make more sense if he had said 50 different countries.
When a block of states forms one of his six countries which state government gets to lead? Dozens of civil wars will ensue. Mexico and Canada will swoop in to mop up.
The final war to take place in heartland of America will be between Canada & Mexico (the 'Canaxico War' as it will called it in the history books).
I wonder if there will be any killer robots in this war?
Jal Dorak! Nameless!
Summon the Polar Bear Riders, unleash the Sasquatch Marines, and call Ogopogo to arms! We're heading south.
Just be sure and pay for your passage, and have all battles either north of the Northern Pasture, or south of the Rio Grande. The same goes for Ol' Mexico.