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Hi again guys,
Something our group has been doing for a while is making Tumble checks 10 + their opponent's Reflex save. That way, the skill use doesn't become a guarantee for characters after 7th level or so.
Working on what you have suggested for CMD, why not make Tumble (now Acrobatics) 10 + opponent's CMD to tumble past, or 20 + CMD to tumble through an opponent's area?
It will allow for scaling of the skill vs opponents into the high levels, and add an area of suspense to the game. You could argue the size modifier to CMD reflects size and reach of your opponent, thus making tumbling harder ...