Paizo mentioned that they were thinking about launching their own proprietary version of 3.5 that they would call 3.75. I assume this would take the shape of a book like the player guide or the DM guide.
At first glance, I am not sure this makes a lot of financial sense. A couple of reasons come to mind:
- For Paizo, it is a sure cost for what looks like very uncertain returns. Organizing a book like the player book is a massive endeavor simply on the graphic and formating side. I am not even talking about rule creation here. One thing is certain, it will cost Paizo a lot of money and management time.
- Is Paizo capable of publishing this book and maintaining the quality of the work (scenario, art, derived products) on the pathfinder series?
- Ideally you want to publish before 4.0 comes out. The people who will have switched to 4.0 early are unlikely to want to switch back again. Is there enough time to come with a quality product before 4.0 gets published in June?
- Ok, let's suppose you manage to pull off all the above. Guess what?: your new product happens to compete with the number 1 brand in the sector which is just going through a re-launch. Good luck. Can Paizo really compete with WoTC in pure marketing $ spend?
- What if 4.0 ends-up not being so bad after all (so far, we haven't seen anything). Well, the consequences would be negative for Paizo because players would have switched to 4.0 while Paizo has single handedly borne the cost of developing 3.75 for nothing
- Seriously, how many publishing company have gone bust in the past 20 years despite great game mechanics? Are there lessons to be learnt here
- if 4.0 is a dog, then it's a catastrophe for the industry as a whole. Hasbro pulls the plug, we loose our market leader and we can kiss goodbye innovative products (pre-painted miniature, tileset, items cards..... they didn't exist when I started playing). Not sure having a 3.75 vs a 3.5 will make a big difference in this situation
- Can you even pull such a thing as 3.75 under the OGL? What about other independent publishers, will they follow onto 3.75?
Conclusion: stick with 3.5 for the time being or even better publish dual stats block (3.5 and 4.0) until things clear and you see which way the market swings.
Best regards and happy new year
From ALL the previews given about 4th Edition and the Races&Classes book, I believe we all have more than enough information to see where WotC is taking 4E. At this point, we all have more than enough right to pre-judge it.
I think that the need for 3.75 will only materialize if 4E tanks. Right not there are so many OGL alternatives that 3.75 would be just another 3E variant among many. A Paizo 3E variant would become a niche within a niche.
While that is a possibility, I don't think it's a likely one. Other OGL alternatives are emulating a particular genre (swords-n-sorcery, horror, etc.). If a 3.75 is a refinement of the "D&D" genre - and make no mistake D&D is it's own kind of fantasy - it could easily be a successful game. If 4E tanks, even more so.
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I think that the need for 3.75 will only materialize if 4E tanks. Right not there are so many OGL alternatives that 3.75 would be just another 3E variant among many. A Paizo 3E variant would become a niche within a niche.While that is a possibility, I don't think it's a likely one. Other OGL alternatives are emulating a particular genre (swords-n-sorcery, horror, etc.). If a 3.75 is a refinement of the "D&D" genre - and make no mistake D&D is it's own kind of fantasy - it could easily be a successful game. If 4E tanks, even more so.
True - many OGL games shift the genre but some don't. True 20 comes to mind.
I agree that a Paizo 3.75 would have less competition but it would be enough to make it just another OGL fantasy game.
Paizo mentioned that they were thinking about launching their own proprietary version of 3.5 that they would call 3.75. I assume this would take the shape of a book like the player guide or the DM guide.
At first glance, I am not sure this makes a lot of financial sense. A couple of reasons come to mind:
[list]
For Paizo, it is a sure cost for what looks like very uncertain returns. Organizing a book like the player book is a massive endeavor simply on the graphic and formating side. I am not even talking about rule creation here. One thing is certain, it will cost Paizo a lot of money and management time.
Is Paizo capable of publishing this book and maintaining the quality of the work (scenario, art, derived products) on the pathfinder series?
Ideally you want to publish before 4.0 comes out. The people who will have switched to 4.0 early are unlikely to want to switch back again. Is there enough time to come with a quality product before 4.0 gets published in June?
Ok, let's suppose you manage to pull off all the above. Guess what?: your new product happens to compete with the number 1 brand in the sector which is just going through a re-launch. Good luck. Can Paizo really compete with WoTC in pure marketing $ spend?
What if 4.0 ends-up not being so bad after all (so far, we haven't seen anything). Well, the consequences would be negative for Paizo because players would have switched to 4.0 while Paizo has single handedly borne the cost of developing 3.75 for nothing
Seriously, how many publishing company have gone bust in the past 20 years despite great game mechanics? Are there lessons to be learnt here
if 4.0 is a dog, then it's a catastrophe for the industry as a whole. Hasbro pulls the plug, we loose our market leader and we can kiss goodbye innovative products (pre-painted miniature, tileset, items cards..... they didn't exist when I started playing). Not sure having a 3.75 vs a 3.5 will make a big difference in this situation
Can you even pull such a...
I smell fear.
Paizo mentioned that they were thinking about launching their own proprietary version of 3.5 that they would call 3.75. I assume this would take the shape of a book like the player guide or the DM guide.
At first glance, I am not sure this makes a lot of financial sense. A couple of reasons come to mind:
[list]
For Paizo, it is a sure cost for what looks like very uncertain returns. Organizing a book like the player book is a massive endeavor simply on the graphic and formating side. I am not even talking about rule creation here. One thing is certain, it will cost Paizo a lot of money and management time. Is Paizo capable of publishing this book and maintaining the quality of the work (scenario, art, derived products) on the pathfinder series? Ideally you want to publish before 4.0 comes out. The people who will have switched to 4.0 early are unlikely to want to switch back again. Is there enough time to come with a quality product before 4.0 gets published in June? Ok, let's suppose you manage to pull off all the above. Guess what?: your new product happens to compete with the number 1 brand in the sector which is just going through a re-launch. Good luck. Can Paizo really compete with WoTC in pure marketing $ spend? What if 4.0 ends-up not being so bad after all (so far, we haven't seen anything). Well, the consequences would be negative for Paizo because players would have switched to 4.0 while Paizo has single handedly borne the cost of developing 3.75 for nothing Seriously, how many publishing company have gone bust in the past 20 years despite great game mechanics? Are there lessons to be learnt here if 4.0 is a dog, then it's a catastrophe for the industry as a whole. Hasbro pulls the plug, we loose our market leader and we can kiss goodbye innovative products (pre-painted miniature, tileset, items cards..... they didn't exist when I started playing). Not sure having a 3.75 vs a 3.5 will make a big difference in this situation Can you even pull such a...
Let me address these points one at a time, even though I don't work for Paizo.
1) The undertaking isn't as difficult as you think, because Wizards has already published a rules compendium, so they don't actually need to worry about rules of the game. If there's enough market for that product, Hasbro will continue to produce it, because that's how Amazon has things set up with the distributors. You only need to worry about fluff, feats, and PRCs.
2) We've seen six months of modules. So six months of no modules put into this? No problem!
3) No, you don't. Paizo has no ability to make the switch at present, so the goal would be to write all your fluff before the switch with NO mechanics. That way, you can hammer out all the crunch after it becomes available. If the flavor text says "Fred fought in the war," so what? Maybe he's a fighter. Maybe in 4e he's a warlord. It doesn't matter. You save those sections for later. While I still think the biggest oaf in the world who needs to be feathered is the guy who came up with the power name, if I wanted to convert to 4th edition, I would do all my fluff now and then hit the world with the crunch when the mechanics were actually released.
4) Paizo doesn't need to. The Paizo method of marketing is to go to conventions and playtest things. They don't have the money to do colossal advertising because they directly target the gamers. Remember, bad advertising can have a negative effect, and more often than not, Wizards is highly guilty of bad advertising. That's why I retain my pathfinder subscription regardless, because Paizo knows how to tell good stories, and Wizards apparently knows how to badly market an inferior product.
5) If 4.0 ends up not being so bad, the power creep issues are colossal for the old school gamers. This is not like 2nd edition or first edition. 3.5 created a common ground and a common gaming language. Wizards is either going to have to find ways to force us to change the gaming language, or eliminate the power creep. That's the problem that I think we'll find Wizards unable to solve.
6) There are lessons to be learned here. WOTC, unfortunately, has failed to realize that competition is good for their games, and we've seen how they treat their business partners. Paizo had their pathfinder plan all laid out, and then Wizards socked them with 4e right out of the box. I don't consider that fair business practice unless Paizo thinks they can corner the 3.5 market.
7) If 4.0 is a dog, Paizo wins anyway. Can Paizo pull it off? You bet your sweet a** they can. If Hasbro gets rid of D+D (Which would make me cheer, because they built the game to break. When you build 4th edition playtests into your 3rd edition game like Book of 9 Swords and the Warlock, the problem is the pattern. We saw this pattern with 2nd and now we're seeing it with 3rd. So the dropoff time is now a 7 year threshold. How long before the next edition? 7 years? 5 years? 3? The players are tired of being lied to.
Since Paizo has a straight head on their shoulders and tell the customers exactly what's going on to the best of their ability, as opposed to Wizards who hide behind their corporate logo and say "Trust me...," I think you already know how this is going to turn out.
Because the people who owned the Titanic did what Wizards is doing right now. And guess what?
The boat sank.
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I smell fear.
Yup. I smell fear too.
And clean underwear is running short (this is a joke only italian readers of Ratman will get; don't worry).Let me address these points one at a time, even though I don't work for Paizo.
1) The undertaking isn't as difficult as you think, because Wizards has already published a rules compendium, so they don't actually need to worry about rules of the game. If there's enough market for that product, Hasbro will continue to produce it, because that's how Amazon has things set up with the distributors. You only need to worry about fluff, feats, and PRCs.
2) We've seen six months of modules. So six months of no modules put into this? No problem!
3) No, you don't. Paizo has no ability to make the switch at present, so the goal would be to write all your fluff before the switch with NO mechanics. That way, you can hammer out all the crunch after it becomes available. If the flavor text says "Fred fought in the war," so what? Maybe he's a fighter. Maybe in 4e he's a warlord. It doesn't matter. You save those sections for later. While I still think the biggest oaf in the world who needs to be feathered is the guy who came up with the power name, if I wanted to convert to 4th edition, I would do all my fluff now and then hit the world with the crunch when the mechanics were actually released.
4) Paizo doesn't need to. The Paizo method of marketing is to go to conventions and playtest things. They don't have the money to do colossal advertising because they directly target the gamers. Remember, bad advertising can have a negative effect, and more often than not, Wizards is highly guilty of bad advertising. That's why I retain my pathfinder subscription regardless, because Paizo knows how to tell good stories, and Wizards apparently knows how to badly market an inferior product.
5) If 4.0 ends up not being so bad, the power creep issues are colossal for the old school gamers. This is not like 2nd edition or first edition. 3.5 created a common ground and a common gaming language. Wizards is either going to have to find ways to force us to change the gaming language, or eliminate the power creep. That's the problem that I think we'll find Wizards unable to solve.
6) There are lessons to be learned here. WOTC, unfortunately, has failed to realize that competition is good for their games, and we've seen how they treat their business partners. Paizo had their pathfinder plan all laid out, and then Wizards socked them with 4e right out of the box. I don't consider that fair business practice unless Paizo thinks they can corner the 3.5 market.
7) If 4.0 is a dog, Paizo wins anyway. Can Paizo pull it off? You bet your sweet a** they can. If Hasbro gets rid of D+D (Which would make me cheer, because they built the game to break. When you build 4th edition playtests into your 3rd edition game like Book of 9 Swords and the Warlock, the problem is the pattern. We saw this pattern with 2nd and now we're seeing it with 3rd. So the dropoff time is now a 7 year threshold. How long before the next edition? 7 years? 5 years? 3? The players are tired of being lied to.
Since Paizo has a straight head on their shoulders and tell the customers exactly what's going on to the best of their ability, as opposed to Wizards who hide behind their corporate logo and say "Trust me...," I think you already know how this is going to turn out.
Because the people who owned the Titanic did what Wizards is doing right now. And guess what?
The boat sank.
Agreed. Point #5 is one of biggest issues, and it alone is (for my tastes) worth staying out of 4E.
TabulaRasa,
Very John Locke, are all of your comments and observations empirically derived?
Seriously though, I agree with a lot of what you have said, I think Paizo might too and thats why they are hanging on. In an ideal universe, for me at any rate, 4th edition will either turn out to be genius (I'm still far from convinced) or if it tanks Hasbro sell the brand off to Paizo who could then do the 3.75 update in safety.
I realise that if 4th edition does tank there are a myriad of possibilities on Hasbro's reaction but I can dream..
Elcian
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Contributor
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For what it's worth, the 3.75 comments stem from the fact that Paizo has not seen the SRD for 4e. Switching to 4E is not even an option for them yet. Once they have seen it, then they would have to decide if they like it. At this point (and only at this point), they could decide if they prefer to make a 3.5 compatible ruleset (which, from what I remember, is more likely to sport the Pathfinder or Gamemastery name than 3.75, which I am almost certain the couldn't call it anyways.)
The idea of this edition is to replace books that are about to go off the market. Anyone who thinks that the 3.5 PHB or the Rules Compendium are going to be widely available next summer (and beyond) is dreaming. In order to make 3.5 compatible products, a rulebook has to be published for any kind of customer growth to be possible. That's where a 3.75-type edition comes in. Use the 3.5 rules, add some clarifications and a character creation/advancement section (since these are not OGL) and publish.
I am certain that the good folks at Paizo know better than to publish a book that competes head-to-head with a product that features the top Brand Recognition in the industry before seeing if it's any good.
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Wizards has released more information on 4E than it had on 3E before its release. I really don't understand why hey are being characterized as secretive.
I don't think they released MORE information. I have high doubts, given the fact that at the time, we had the DRAGON columns.
I'll buy 3.75 if it is ever published.
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Wizards has released more information on 4E than it had on 3E before its release. I really don't understand why hey are being characterized as secretive.I don't think they released MORE information. I have high doubts, given the fact that at the time, we had the DRAGON columns.
You still have Dragon columns to read, plus Dungeon, plus blogs by the designers, plus the preview publications, plus all of the information gathered at EN World.
Several things:
1) Paizo has said that they are not going to call it 3.75, but are using the term "3.75" to stand for whatever they'd do if they do not go 4E.
2) Paizo has two things things True20 didn't have upon its release: 1. their own world that they are known for (GR had a few: Thieve's world, Freeport, etc but choose not to integrate that setting right off the bat) and 2. True20 & RuneQuest. Paizo can learn from GR's/Mongoose's mistakes. GR Mistake #1 that systems do not sell games, settings do. GR didn't offer a cool setting and pump it like crazy. The system is great, but I'd like to have a setting book for it. Pirates Guide to Freeport & the True 20 Companion are great, but frankly it took GR to long to get them out. Mongoose Mistake #1 GM had to buy 4 books to play in the default world. D&D is the only game that can get away with that and that is simply due to tradition.
So in short, if Paizo released a single tome that contained system and enough setting to begin playing the game and did their level of quality, it would sell, big time.
The other thing that people seem to be missing is that all the previews are now only available online.
The preview book was published because they wanted to reach out to people who weren't online.
Quite frankly, I think they're already in the hole. I'm not impressed with Wizard's logic, but here, for me is the kicker.
The D+D Open at Gencon this year will be 4e.
WTF? This event is totally rules lawyered. And they expect us to get through the four hour tournament round with 9 weeks of rules knowledge?
I doubt more than six teams will advance to round two.
I find it hard to believe that Paizo would work on developing their own version of the rules in the near future given their manpower. I'm not even sure I've seen any direct comments from Paizo staff members that they are considering a "3.75" or whatever it ends up being called.
I think their only likely options in the near term are:
1. Continue creating 3.5 modules/accessories (and universal items like minis or magic item cards or whatnot without crunch) until the market direction for 4.0 becomes clear (should be clear by this time next year).
2. Convert to 4.0 right away (at least for all new stuff versus modules, etc. finishing out an adventure path) but also including 3.5 stat blocks.
3. Same as 2.0, but only 4.0 rules.
I don't think that Paizo has the manpower at this stage. And unless someday Hasbro goes and sells off the D&D property, unlikely if miniature sales, etc. continue to go good, I think they're stuck either developing off of the old 3.x OGL or changing to support 4.0 since even with weaker sales official D&D sales will swamp all other RPG sales combined.
L
I find it hard to believe that Paizo would work on developing their own version of the rules in the near future given their manpower.
To not plan for a "worst case scenario" where you can't continue with your current business plan is a bad move for any business, regardless of size. (And for an RPG company, Paizo ain't small. They ain't WotC, but they're not Joe Schmoe's RPG's either.)
I'm not even sure I've seen any direct comments from Paizo staff members that they are considering a "3.75" or whatever it ends up being called.
Read the first post of this thread. There's plenty of others just like it. Nothing has changed as far as that first post in concerned, except the locations of the hands on the clock.
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Wizards has released more information on 4E than it had on 3E before its release. I really don't understand why hey are being characterized as secretive.
I agree; but I wonder if they're (WotC) treading into Osborne Effect territory...just take a look at the Amazon rankings for 3.5 books and preorders on the last to-be-published of the version. Contrary to what I said three months ago, I cancelled all my preorders of upcoming 3.5 books (sorry, Nick, but your last Eberron book looks to be useless (except as a collector's item) three months after it hits the shelves.).
Eberron books are 90 percent lore and 10 percent crunch anyway. I do not believe that the purchase will be wasted.
CEO
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I find it hard to believe that Paizo would work on developing their own version of the rules in the near future given their manpower. I'm not even sure I've seen any direct comments from Paizo staff members that they are considering a "3.75" or whatever it ends up being called.
I think their only likely options in the near term are:
1. Continue creating 3.5 modules/accessories (and universal items like minis or magic item cards or whatnot without crunch) until the market direction for 4.0 becomes clear (should be clear by this time next year).2. Convert to 4.0 right away (at least for all new stuff versus modules, etc. finishing out an adventure path) but also including 3.5 stat blocks.
3. Same as 2.0, but only 4.0 rules.
I don't think that Paizo has the manpower at this stage. And unless someday Hasbro goes and sells off the D&D property, unlikely if miniature sales, etc. continue to go good, I think they're stuck either developing off of the old 3.x OGL or changing to support 4.0 since even with weaker sales official D&D sales will swamp all other RPG sales combined.
Pretty well said! I can tell you that we are NOT working on a 3.75 right now. That doesn't mean that we won't someday, but for right now, we are still in wait and see mode. The short term options are to either switch to 4.0 or stay with 3.5. Long term, we will have to see how the short term turns out. :)
If we determine that there is a need for a 3.75 product, then we will find the manpower to get it done. And done well. But the time for that is not here yet.
-Lisa
Does WotC plan to keep the 3.5 Rules Compendium in print after 4e is released?
On one hand, it seems odd that they would keep a product in print that might undercut the sales of 4e...
But on the other hand, they may be looking to hedge their bet and keep making at least some money off the 3.5 hardliners who won't switch.
If the Rules Compendium stays in print, Paizo could probably stay with the 3.5 rules for a long time without having to worry about doing a 3.75. They'd only have to release the occasional small rule expansion for setting-specific rules or for any needed rules that aren't covered in the compendium. These could be printed as small module-sized staplebound pieces, or Pathfinder-sized books at most, or in some cases even web enhancements.
Combined with a PDF copy of the SRD made continually available as a download, that would enable a continuation of 3.5 rules without the need for a big cash outlay and risk to develop a new game system. And hopefully by the time this system is no longer tenable, if will be very obvious whether 4e us going to be successful or suitable.
GR Mistake #1 that systems do not sell games, settings do.
This is a sad revelation. Great settings are a dime a dozen. Great systems, not so much.
For Paizo, it is a sure cost for what looks like very uncertain returns. Organizing a book like the player book is a massive endeavor simply on the graphic and formating side. I am not even talking about rule creation here. One thing is certain, it will cost Paizo a lot of money and management time.
I dissagree. As far as graphics, yes there will be new artwork that must be drawn and put in the book. As far as rule creation, 3.75 ir really just the 3.5 SRD being printed up so the 3.5 Players handbook still exists on the market. There will be minor "tweeks" here and there but its all material that is already written. All Paizo really needs to do is put a pretty cover on it and change the art. Thats not a big project at all.
Is Paizo capable of publishing this book and maintaining the quality of the work (scenario, art, derived products) on the pathfinder series?
See above. Yes Paizo is more than capable. It should'nt detract from the other projects Paizo is working on since all they need to do is layout, art and minor re-writes.
Ideally you want to publish before 4.0 comes out. The people who will have switched to 4.0 early are unlikely to want to switch back again. Is there enough time to come with a quality product before 4.0 gets published in June?
Its not really as ideal as you think to publish this 3.75 book before 4.0 comes out. Before the 4th edition release there will be 3.5 PHB everywhere. Paizo doesnt have to worry about their version of the rulebook until 3.5 PHBs become scarce.
Ok, let's suppose you manage to pull off all the above. Guess what?: your new product happens to compete with the number 1 brand in the sector which is just going through a re-launch. Good luck. Can Paizo really compete with WoTC in pure marketing $ spend?
It doesnt really need to compete directly. No RPG company comes close to WotC. All Paizo needs to do is be successful within its own small company. And since it looks like 40% to 50% of D&D players dont like how 4th edition is shaping up it wont be THAT hard to be successful without falling in line with WotC's new version of D&D.
What if 4.0 ends-up not being so bad after all (so far, we haven't seen anything). Well, the consequences would be negative for Paizo because players would have switched to 4.0 while Paizo has single handedly borne the cost of developing 3.75 for nothing
If 4.0 does manage to be awesome and everyone wants to ditch 3.5 in order to play 4.0 Paizo should still be fine. They just need to convert when they realize staying 3rd edition isnt working out for them. You get the impression that if Paizo doesnt convert ASAP they will go bankrupt before they have a chance realize their mistake and switch over. I cant believe this is true at all.
Seriously, how many publishing company have gone bust in the past 20 years despite great game mechanics? Are there lessons to be learnt here?
This is different. Yes some companies invented great RPGs that arent D&D that still failed. But in this case its not just a new RPG that isnt D&D. In this case it would be Dungeons & Dragons. Paizo cant use that name of course but it WOULD be D&D. To some gamers it would be looked at as the REAL D&D while WotC owns the name and put it on this new game that isnt D&D.
if 4.0 is a dog, then it's a catastrophe for the industry as a whole. Hasbro pulls the plug, we loose our market leader and we can kiss goodbye innovative products (pre-painted miniature, tileset, items cards..... they didn't exist when I started playing). Not sure having a 3.75 vs a 3.5 will make a big difference in this situation
If 4.0 is a dog then yes the RPG industry as a whole will take a nasty hit. I will really miss pre-painted plastic miniatures and stuff. But if 4.0 is a dog more people will flock to Paizo's 3rd edition D&D. Heck WitC may even go back to 3rd edition if they see their error of their ways (unlikely). And as for the whole "3.5 vs 3.75". I think you are misunderstanding what 3.75 means since 3.75 effectivly IS 3.5.
Can you even pull such a thing as 3.75 under the OGL? What about other independent publishers, will they follow onto 3.75?
Yes the SRD is open content. You can pretty much cut and paste every word of it and sell it legally. And yes, I see other independant publishers staying with 3rd edition if Paizo leads the way and does well for itself.
...unless someday Hasbro goes and sells off the D&D property, unlikely if miniature sales, etc. continue to go good...
For what my opinion is worth, that ain't gonna happen :)
Hasbro has a demonstrable history of letting products die rather than permitting someone else to profit from them.
But I think you're right -- mini sales alone will keep D&D on the shelves, though not necessarily keep it well-supported.