Siege Analysis (Siege of the Dinosaurs spoilers)
The simple analysis says that each hero has a ~50% shot at success at a defense activity. So a party with four adventurers is likely to have (initial 2)+(Sea Cave goods 4)+4=10 defense points when the siege starts. The adventurers are likely to start each siege day by all attempting to Rally Willowside, but not every hero can be expected to be Expert in Diplomacy or Intimidation so the average Defense Point increase is likely less than 2.
A summary of Hot Spots (things that decrease Defense Points) per day of siege (until destroyed):
First Day
-2 Willowside Pier
Second Day
-1 Pier Road
-2 Willowside Pier
Third Day
-1 East Road Blockade
-2 Verdant Road Blockade
-2 Willowside Pier
-1 Dinosaur Corrals
Fourth Day
-1 East Road Blockade
-2 Verdant Road Blockade
-2 Willowside Pier
-1 Dinosaur Corrals
-2 Fiend Enclosure
-1 Gug Huts
Fifth Day
-1 East Road Blockade
-2 Verdant Road Blockade
-1 Pier Road
-2 Willowside Pier
-1 Dinosaur Corrals
-2 Fiend Enclosure
-1 Gug Huts
Whether the heroes stand a decent chance of defeating the siege is all about their capacity to take on multiple encounters in a single day.
A party without spellcasters, for instance, will probably have an easy time, since all encounters are separate and there is no reason to stop to rest longer than 30-90 minutes each time.
Nevertheless, based on your party's performance so far, you should have a pretty good idea of how many days the party needs to defeat all seven hot spots.
So far, my party have never needed more than one long rest to complete a level's worth of encounters, so "two days, three days tops" would be my answer.
Clearly additional forces (Strike Teams) need to be applied for this to be a real challenge, otherwise the only two Defense Points that will be lost are the two first ones (assuming you lose the two points from the Willowside Pier at the beginning of the day, before you get to act).
My party is five heroes, which means they generate more Defense Points on average. Not sure how to best handle this.
I will probably lower the starting Defense Points. Maybe the town starts with only 1 DP, and the retrieved goods from the Sea Caves only add 1 DP...
(The expected average total before the Siege will then be 7-8 DP instead of 10 DP)
Other ideas: have the Pier Road suck DPs every day (the siege is unlikely to last for five days), by having the Vanish Man pick off additional named city NPCs.
The following encounters can happen during defense-building. The idea is that once the defenses reach some level, these irritants are stopped. That shows actual value of Defense Points, making them come across as less abstract. It also helps motivate PCs to stick around (I'm sure many groups are itching to just go kill the Xulgath Army leader).
* Have infiltration teams of low-level Xulgath attempt to sneak into town to start fires and/or abduct townspeople.
My intention is to send in multiple teams that force heroes to solo each time, or start crossing off houses that are lost to fire and mayhem. (Any hero that decides to double up will have to see at least one house destroyed. If the heroes stick together whatever Xulgaths they meet will be less than trivial, but the losses are significant since this means there are several spots where the heroes aren't)
A single level 13 hero can probably handle half a dozen Spinesnappers (level 5) or Skirmishers (level 6) or something.
Another option is a full squad of low-level Skulkers (20 or 30), especially since a hero can just rally the Willowsiders to gang up on these guys (level 2 is low enough that regular villagers can wipe'em)
A single significant threat would be a Xulgath Demon-Caller. Unless quickly dispatched, it sacrifices its own life to summon a level-appropriate demon (a Glabrezu is level 13) that requires many heroes to take down.
Another such idea is a stealthy sole Xulgath on a mission to assassinate Mayor Vandy. The Xulgath with stealth is the Gutrager, which makes horrific sense - it will grab her, and explode itself, and the town is leaderless. (Unless the closest hero manages to valiantly hold it off or whisk Vandy to safety...) Note, Mayor Vandy is described as 8th Level, so giving her AC 24, a Reflex save of +15, and 100 hp isn't out of the question. This means the Gutrager should need multiple rounds to defeat her (=the hero stands a decent chance of making a difference).
* Have Zashatal on his Quarashith do a high-altitude bombing run. Barrels and boxes of alchemists' fire (etc) are pushed off by low-level xugaths while Zashatal pilots the massive "bomber". They're protected by a flight of four elite Quetzalcoatluses (piloted by Herd-Tenders) that dive to intercept any hero that starts to come close. Not willing to risk a fight while heavily laden, Zashatal breaks off the bombing run (=the intention is not to fight him here).
Otherwise take out a rule and draw a thick straight line across town where the bombing run decimates the buildings.
The adventure makes no provisions for failure - what happens if many heroes fail their defense activity checks?
They will want to spend a third day on building defenses, that's what.
But the adventure doesn't seem to be aware of this possibility. It's a case where the writer knows time is of the essence - but the heroes don't!
The Banyan Boys aren't likely to just remain in stasis if the heroes doesn't visit the Sea Caves until day three, but we get no clues as to possible developments. Will Ledorick/Lyrt kill the two remaining brothers, or will they flee while L/L stays behind?
The only clue is "they should all head back to town as they’ve wasted enough time already", meaning the writers are open to the idea that Lyrt returns to town. So maybe the likely outcome is "Ledorick leads the Banyan Boys back to the surface"?
What Lyrt will do there though is anyone's guess. Research ways to summon Bokrug I guess?
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This a really good write-up. Thank you very much. As soon as my players find a way to handle Thessaka, your post is going to help me a lot.
Thanks Mr. Zapp
Zapp wrote: The adventure makes no provisions for failure - what happens if many heroes fail their defense activity checks?
They will want to spend a third day on building defenses, that's what.
But the adventure doesn't seem to be aware of this possibility. It's a case where the writer knows time is of the essence - but the heroes don't!
The Banyan Boys aren't likely to just remain in stasis if the heroes doesn't visit the Sea Caves until day three, but we get no clues as to possible developments. Will Ledorick/Lyrt kill the two remaining brothers, or will they flee while L/L stays behind?
The only clue is "they should all head back to town as they’ve wasted enough time already", meaning the writers are open to the idea that Lyrt returns to town. So maybe the likely outcome is "Ledorick leads the Banyan Boys back to the surface"?
What Lyrt will do there though is anyone's guess. Research ways to summon Bokrug I guess?
Did it not mention somewhere that he makes his way to the surface to murder the town for killing him? I could see Lyrt working against the townsfolk trying to murder key members of its defense to assist in destroying the village.
He would likely see the Xulgaths as allies sent by Bokrug to assist him in bringing vengeance upon the town given the Xulgathas smelly, fishy nature.
If you wanted to do something different with Lyrt, you could easily have him ally with the Xulgaths in an effort to destroy the town and sacrifice them all to Bokrug. Turn on them at just the right moment or try to murder them with his brothers at a key point in time.
After two days of defense preparations the heroes have 9 DP.
They succeeded on almost all defense activities, with one character scoring two critical successes, netting them 6 DP from each day.
My (invented) high-altitude bombing run cost them 2 DP the first day, and couldn't stop the Demon-Caller from calling a Glabrezu. It didn't last long, but long enough to confuse the Cleric to kill a pair of innocent bystanders with an Electric Arc. I judged that to be a -1 DP morale penalty. I then randomized the path of the bomber right over the Brewery. Since Miltynne and Sindrick Birtrax can't be persuaded not to leave town if they're dead, they automatically lost another DP from the "Departing Brewers" defense obstacle.
They actively kept Ledorick's whereabouts in check, so I judged them to auto-succeed at the Disheartening Absence defense obstacle, especially after the Fighter single-handedly saving Mayor Vandy from the Gutrager assassin.
The most intriguing development was when the party Wizard rolled a "1" on his third dream Will save in a row! (Rolling two further 1's after rolling one 1 is 1-in-400!) I had already considered making Trytalla Frynt the town historian a surviving Bokrug cultist, and I took this opportunity to "upgrade" his nightmare to be a vision of the fall of Sarnath as a message from Bokrug itself. This led him to Frynt, and now they're allies.
This is cool because the more I get to describe the adventure and its background, the better. Now the party knows something about what to expect in the Water Temple, including hints of restless undead. (The Cleric would otherwise never prepare any anti-Undead spells, since there are very few Undead in this campaign).
Plus the player might even take a feat to simulate some kind of connection to Bokrug. There isn't a Warlock in Pathfinder 2, but there are classes with Great Old Ones Patrons. We'll see what comes out of it. If anything, it should greatly increase the chances of an actual conversation* with Helg (who's a Bokrug cultist too).
*) my players usually summarily execute evil repulsive creatures, especially of races that are known to invariably back-stab you later. (The old classic Drow trilogy, and all its diplomatic and scheming information, just becomes a waste when the proper and correct way of playing is to kill every Drow on sight. Same with the Yuan-Ti of 5E's Tomb of Annihilation. At least this campaign thought to actively avoid Paladin heroes...)
I decided to use the idea above. Lyrt has returned to the town with the party due to my players not being particularly interested in investigating why Ledorick went from a boisterous jackass to a quiet introvert. Lyrt will now ally with the Xulgaths to destroy Willowside. He will seek to convert them to the Cult of Bokrug.
Zapp wrote: The most intriguing development was when the party Wizard rolled a "1" on his third dream Will save in a row!
I had already considered making Trytalla Frynt the town historian a surviving Bokrug cultist, and I took this opportunity to "upgrade" his nightmare to be a vision of the fall of Sarnath as a message from Bokrug itself. This led him to Frynt, and now they're allies.
In my campaign, there's no love lost between Bokrug cultists and the invading Xulgaths.
If anything, it's a story about competing Bokrugians.
Lyrt is hell-bent on revenge. On the other hand, he sacrificed humans, which the module specifically states isn't the wish of Bokrug. So while he might well consider the destruction of the entire town as acceptable, nothing suggests that's how the Bokrug cult operated historically. As I see it, their ideal end-goal would be to convert Willowside to Bokrug worship, not destroy their own town?
It seems more likely he would want
a) to kill the descendants of those responsible for his cult's destruction (meaning Mayor Vandy and the Banyan Boys)
b) ask Bokrug to stomp out the Xulgaths once he's made aware of the siege
Helg is using the Xulgaths as pawns. Nothing suggests she wants them to have anything to do with Bokrug or his treasures.
In my story, Frynt too is Bokrugian. But she definitely doesn't think "everybody dead at the hands of smelly troglodytes" a reasonable price to pay. She's definitely into summoning Bokrug, but bears no grudges against Mayor Vandy.
The player Wizard might also want to explore what help Bokrug can give against the Xulgaths. After all, the party is getting increasingly frustrated by all these diversions. Remember, they came to Willowside to explore the Aeon Tower. The adventure gives out no hints that the tower itself is nothing.
While summoning Bokrug itself seems out of character for the Water Lizard (since his schtick is to lay low for a century or ten before making his moves ;-), sending a guardian or avatar isn't out of the question.
I've already toyed with the idea to add more treasure to the inner chamber of the Water Temple, but to make it cursed like in Pirates of the Caribbean.
Put simply, try to loot it and you need to face a terrible guardian, an Extreme-level threat. (Leave it and only take the Willowside supplies and you're fine).
I was thinking a Shoggoth here (which nicely ties into the next EC book).
But now I'm opening up the idea to allow the Wizard to cast a ritual (costing all that bonus treasure) that allows him to send the Shoggoth at the Xulgath army.
This is because the written conclusion "to cut the head off the snake" is so mind-numbingly cliche. D&D armies are far too often rendered unthreatening by "oh, we could just kill the generals and the army falls apart". The players are ALREADY asking themselves why they bother with defenses and striking against blockades, when they could just kill the general and let the chaotic evil alignment of the army do the rest of the job for them. And then the adventure basically confirms that, yep, you could just have done that and skipped everything else?!
Being able to send a CR18 monstrosity against the main camp provides a much better explanation for why their strike could work than "maybe make a level-appropriate skill check or two, and you're in":
You managed to pull it off this once, but only because Bokrug had your back.
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