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So last night, my players found their way to Thistletop, mostly without problems (one guy wandered into a stinging nettle). What's interesting is what they did when they found the entry to the giant briarpatch that the goblins call home.
One player has a riding bat (not sure why bats in Pathfinder can take off from flat ground, but whatever). He flew up, stealthily at first, to get an idea of what the situation was (yes, there's a roof over the area, no, there aren't goblins on top of it). He then flew higher to survey the area (he could see the bridge), making it much easier to see him. They briefly discussed using the Defoliate spell (which the wizard had researched in preparation for this adventure) to simply burrow through all of the thistles, but decided against it as they weren't sure it would give them enough space.
When they found the door, and realized that the tunnels were made for small-sized creatures, they basically refused to go in, and decided to backtrack and try to approach Thistletop from the beach. This was fun times, as I had the Goblin refugees (seeking to impress Ripnugget) launch a raid on their camp. No player fatalities, but the fighter was pretty torn up, as was the riding bat. I'm thinking of having the Druid and his companion attack next; any suggestions for alterations to his spell list for a beach attack?
I imagine there's little chance of the goblins being unaware of the players at this point. They've taken their time throughout the adventure; they actually retreated from the Cavern of Wrath and rested for a day before engaging the Quasit, so she would have had time to send a message to Nualia. Furthermore, as I said before the riding bat flew high enough to survey Thistletop, and during the beach attack the players were attacked with Alchemist's Fire, they used a Ghost Sound spell (brass marching band) to wake up one of the players who had failed his perception check, and later used an illusion of a large, scary bat with a breath weapon to attempt to distract the goblins (with limited success; I figured goblins engaged in melee with players already would remain focused on the immediate danger).
I would have to say that as soon as Gogmurt notices the party, alerting Thistletop would be the first thing he does, probably with his animal messenger spell. After all, he's pretty much the wisest goblin in the entire AP.
As for him attacking the party on the beach on his own, I don't see him doing it. A beach fight would be heavily weighted towards the party, whereas in the briar patch he can use hit-and-run guerilla tactics and use his woodland stride to great effect.
Fighting the party in the briar patch isn't an option; they definitely aren't going in there. I'm thinking his best option is to ambush them during the climb to Thistletop.
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My party got pretty beat up in the briar patch. They ended up making too much noise and alerting Gogmurt thus getting ambushed. They also managed to use magical fire on the thistles and cause massive smoke which was one of the funnest things I've had to ad-lib so far. When Goggy (I'm becoming fond of this guy) used his speak with animals to set the goblin dogs up to flank the party, the barbarian got badly mauled, and Gogmurt got away - although he did lose his cat.
Long and short of it is; the party is probably gonna have to pull back to sandpoint and heal up before trying again. The massive smoke cloud has even goblins on alert (actually excited: Fire! Yeah!).
I figure the results this way:
1) Gogmurt storms off to Ripnugget with a massive "I told you so! Adventurers to murder us all!" "Where are they?", says Ripnugget. "I drove them off by myself.", Gogmurt replies. "...Liar.", responds Ripnugget. A huge falling out occurs and Gogmurt storms off to the woods.
2)Gogmurt spends 24 hours getting a new animal companion while Ripnugget looks at the dead refugees and goblin dogs and decides that something must have happened here. He sets the goblins to preparing some extra defenses/basic traps and bullies everyone into being alert. If the PCs attack during this time they won't have to deal with Goggy, but the Goblins are gonna be stirred up. Nualia figures anyone defeated by Goblins is no threat to her and ignores the whole mess - Goblins aren't reliable sources of information anyway.
3) If they spend a day healing and return the next day with full spells, the results are worse. Ripnugget is still keeping the goblins awake, but their enthusiasm for the new "build traps" game has gotten the better of them and their attentions are mostly on building fiendish/idiotic traps everywhere. Expect some fatalities among the goblins. Gogmurt will be back to his paranoid self and will recruit a few Goblins that are loyal to him (mostly hunters and scavengers that have benifited from his magic) to help him set ambushes in the forest for the PCs that he's sure will return. He will use his ability to hide tracks at will to lay false trails around the ambush sites to slow the characters, but his time is limited, so expect a couple "No Kill Goblins!" messages along the trail, and one major ambush. Possibly followed by a pursuit. Remember that he knows these woods and will use the flora (stinging nettle, etc.) and his ability to pass through it to both prepare ambushes (a bird net filled with nettles to dump on PCs make a good low-tech trap) and discourage pursuit.
3) After 3 days, if the PCs wait that long, the goblins will have lost interest in the trap game ("To much like work.") and Ripnugget will be losing interest in bullying them into alertness ("Way too much work.") The extra defenses in the briar patch - thistle barricades, pit traps, and snares that swing you into spikes concealed in the thistles mostly - will be fully manned by the extra goblins that have returned from foraging etc., but not be especially alert. Gogmurt will use the extra day to refine his main ambush and, realizing that he is probably gonna get chased, prepare tracks and set up to lead the PCs into a monster den. An ettercap-giant spider sounds appropriate. He can use his flame blade to keep from getting caught laying the tracks while pissing the ettercap off.
4) If they wait a week or more the traps will be only about half functional as Goblin craftsmanship and carelessness takes their toll. The extra defenses will be only 2/3 manned and most of the Goblins will be at only normal (for Goblins) alertness. Ripnugget will have had time to accelerate his plans for the invasion of sandpoint, though, so there will probably be more Goblins in the fort. Gogmurts paranoia is a more potent motivator than Ripnuggets bullying and he will still have his group of Goblins ready to go to ambush positions when he gives the word. Being torn apart by an animal companion (probably a bear) if you try to slink off is a motivation Goblins understand. He will use the extra days to craft poisons from the flora using his craft potions feat and knowlege nature. Expect all the hunters arrows to be poisoned now. He will also use his speak with animals to make sure that he can find out quickly when the PCs enter the Tanglewood. Expect the traps at his ambush(s) to be more elaborate and effective. There are likely to be some pit traps/punji holes that his nature knowlege will make better concealed than typical Goblin traps. He will use his wand of tree shape to set himself up to both activate the traps and ambush the party from the back.
OK. So this was a book. The bottom line is that Gogmurt is the smartest Goblin there and he is a druid/rogue. He's not a frontline fighter and won't think that way. Don't use him to confront the PCs directly. He will warn the fort and then try to find a way to ambush or flank them. The cindercat has an awesome stealth. He is likely to try to backstab the party when it's fighting someone else. He can also use his speak with animals to gather up the goblin dogs and use them as shock troops when he attacks from the rear. Gogmurt is loyal to the tribe, but cares no more than any other Goblin for his fellows individual lives. He won't sacrifice himself to save some cannon-fodder. Going into an alerted Goblin fortress with an unknown number of assailents at your back, is dumb-as-a-bag-of-hammers. Don't pull punches. Goblins are dumb, but they are vicious little mo-fos; they won't pull punches. If they TPK because of bad tactics, they will whine at first, but they will tell that story for years to come, brag about how their DM is a badass who made them fear Goblins for the first time in 20 years (my characters already say that), and they can make up new characters to avenge their fallen friends. After all, the Gobs are just gonna store all the gear they can't use in their treasury for your next party to take back. Vengence is doubly sweet.