Need help with combining odds


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Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

I am NO good at mathematics WHATSOEVER. However, I recently boasted that my 15th-level character could make short work of any 20th-level CR monster my friends could pull our of the Bestiary.

Now I have to back it up.

I have a 15th-level sorcerer who, 14/day, can hit a single target with a bouncing, heightened, persistent flesh to stone spell via Spell Perfection. The poor target must take the lower of two fortitude saves against DC 35. My sorcerer has a caster level of 23 for the purposes of overcoming spell resistance with this spell. Even if the spell fails to overcome the target's resistances, it bounces to another enemy target (who also has to make two saves).

I looked up some of the CR 20 critters in the bestiary and it seems we are looking at an ancient gold dragon, a balor, a pit fiend, and a tarn linnorm.

I want to know what the odds are of my character winning a 1 on 1 encounter with these creatures.

What are the odds that my character will win initiative (modifier +7) and get a spell off, get the spell past spell resistance, beat the creature's saving throw, and thereby win the day.

If someone could do the math for me for each of these encounters, or better yet, show me how to do the math (in layman's terms), I would be most grateful.

You can see the characters stats in full here as a downloadable PDF character sheet.


Good Luck! you need a CR 20 creature to fail two rolls and you need to make one. You have three chances to fail you sir are in trouble. You should pick your most likely save or die and pray for a 20.

Also hope they don't pick a creature with immunity to petrification.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Mr.Fishy wrote:

Good Luck! you need a CR 20 creature to fail two rolls and you need to make one. You have three chances to fail you sir are in trouble. You should pick your most likely save or die and pray for a 20.

Also hope they don't pick a creature with immunity to petrification.

None of the CR 20 creatures mentioned seem to be immune to petrify if I'm not mistaken.

The only thing I'm concerned about is that gold dragon winning initiative (his -1 vs my +7) and casting antimagic field before I can stone him to death.


Ravingdork wrote:
much smack talking and then question asking

The terrain(map) is always a big factor. Are you meeting the baddy on neutral ground or are you trying to invade it's lair?

If it knows you are coming you are at an extreme disadvantage. If this is more like an arena battle you need to win initiative.

As of this post I have not looked at the battle yet, but I will tell you that dragon are also casters, so it won't be just another caster versus melee contest. Win initiative and pray.
My next post are what I would do.
I will assume I only know you are a caster.


Mr. Fishy looked at the monsters you listed...Meta magic feats do they take a full round to cast because you have one round before those bastards ruin your life.

Dark Archive

OK, Starting with the Pit Fiend:

I believe you have a 20% chance to win Init vs its +13. A 65% chance to overcome SR. If I did my math right it has a 75% chance to fail its Fort save.

I think that's about a 10% chance that you'll succeed on all these checks.

I don't think I need to do the math on the other three to tell you you might have bitten off more than you can chew.

Edit: looking at the Gold Dragon which is slightly easier because of its lower Fort and Init, you actually have a 31% chance to have every die roll go your way there. Those odds still aren't good.


The gold dragon has a

Fort +23

He needs a 12 to make the save.

that's a 12/20 or 3/5 chance to make the save

the chance of him making both saves is

3/5 * 3/5 = 9/25 = 36% chance of missing both. Good for you, not a lock though.

oooh right.. the sr SR 31 is going to hit you pretty hard.

31-15= 16. 16/20= 80% chance of being unaffected 20% chance of being

20% chance of being unaffected due to sr and a 64% chance of missing one of the saves = 12.8% chance of 1 round victory if you win init.

Looking at the things damage output i don't think there's much reason for calculating your survival in round 2.

Dark Archive

BigNorseWolf wrote:

The gold dragon has a

Fort +23

He needs a 12 to make the save.

that's a 12/20 or 3/5 chance to make the save

the chance of him making both saves is

3/5 * 3/5 = 9/25 = 36% chance. Good for you, not a lock though.

I think you got your math a bit mixed up. If it needs to roll a 12 to make the save that's actually a 45% chance to make the save, not 60%.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Mr.Fishy wrote:

Mr. Fishy looked at the monsters you listed...Meta magic feats do they take a full round to cast because you have one round before those bastards ruin your life.

Metamagic feats don't take a full round to cast. They take a full round action. There's a HUGE difference there. Also, being of the arcane bloodline (look at the character sheet I provided) I can use metamagic several times each day without increasing the casting time. Also, thanks to spell perfection, my flesh to stone NEVER faces a slot increase or increased casting time.

I noticed a lot of the numbers you other posters are using are wrong. When it comes to bypassing spell resistance, my character doesn't have a caster level of 15, she has a caster level of 23. I said this in the OP. Seriously, look at the character sheet. I provided it for a reason.


In the Red corner the master of magic, Yiankun Lee.
In the blue corner we have an ancient gold dragon, a balor, a pit fiend, and a tarn linnorm.
fight 1
The gold dragon takes a bow and ask Mr.Lee to surrender. Mr. Lee says "No way stupid lizard breath."

Assuming the dragon wins init, and the fight starts 60 feet away.

The dragon moves up 60 feet and readies an action to breath in your face if you try to cast a spell.
20d10 ⇒ (3, 8, 8, 4, 5, 5, 8, 1, 9, 3, 10, 4, 3, 10, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 8) = 108

This is a high concentration check

Round 2 it is in full attack range unless you have a way to teleport. If not then it goes for a grapple. I don't see you making that concentration check either.

fight 2
The Balor is up next. It actually has a higher init than you do.
It moves close to you and cast blashemy
PRD:Blasphemy
--->Up to caster level –5 Paralyzed, weakened, dazed
Paralyzed: The creature is paralyzed and helpless for 1d10 minutes. Save reduces the paralyzed effect to 1 round.

Now that you are paralyzed. It power attacks with a full attack. 2d6+31, and unlikely to miss on any attacks means it wins.

PS: I looked at your HP after deciding to full attack
fight 3
The Pit Fiend also has a higher init.
The Pit Fiend has Blasphemy at will, instead of just 1/day. If it wins init then there is no way it should lose the fight. You can make the fort save on a 9, but with enough rolls it keeps you paralyzed until you fail the save. It can also throw 3 quickened fireballs in there while it tries to paralyze you.

fight 4
The Linnorm also has a higher init than you.

It moves up to you and tail slaps you.The concentration check is not looking to good.<--I am assuming it makes the grapple check.

I think the gold dragon has the best chance at losing due to a poor initiative.

edit: added "have" and bolded "fight 1"


Ravingdork wrote:
Mr.Fishy wrote:

Mr. Fishy looked at the monsters you listed...Meta magic feats do they take a full round to cast because you have one round before those bastards ruin your life.

Metamagic feats don't take a full round to cast. They take a full round action. There's a HUGE difference there. Also, being of the arcane bloodline (look at the character sheet I provided) I can use metamgic several times each day without increasing the casting time.

I noticed a lot of the numbers you other posters are using are wrong. When it comes to bypassing spell resistance, my character doesn't have a caster level of 15, she has a caster level of 23. I said this in the OP. Seriously, look at the character sheet. I provided it for a reason.

From your character sheet-->Sorcerer Spells Known (CL 15th, or CL 19th to overcome SR)

Now I did not include that with the chance to beat the gold dragon(SR 31). With that in mind you have a less than 50% chance to get by its SR.
If the caster level to bypass SR is 23, and the character sheet is wrong then your odds are a lot better. You must win initiative, and then hope for the best.


YuenglingDragon wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:

The gold dragon has a

Fort +23

He needs a 12 to make the save.

that's a 12/20 or 3/5 chance to make the save

the chance of him making both saves is

3/5 * 3/5 = 9/25 = 36% chance. Good for you, not a lock though.

I think you got your math a bit mixed up. If it needs to roll a 12 to make the save that's actually a 45% chance to make the save, not 60%.

DOh.. thats what i get for trying to skip a step. Thank you.

Chances of you winning in 1 shot

.45 *.45

79.75% chance of missing 1 or both saves

times

65% chance of him being affected thanks to his SR <--- edited

= 51.8375% chance of victory in round 1.

Then he walks over to you and casts antimagic field. If you walk away he grapples you. If you stay there you're doomed.

If the monster can cast spells before the fight, you're screwed. Improved invisibility will keep you from targeting him.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
wraithstrike wrote:

From your character sheet-->Sorcerer Spells Known (CL 15th, or CL 19th to overcome SR)

Now I did not include that with the chance to beat the gold dragon(SR 31). With that in mind you have a less than 50% chance to get by its SR.
If the caster level to bypass SR is 23, and the character sheet is wrong then your odds are a lot better. You must win initiative, and then hope for the best.

Spell Perfection is what really makes it work. It doubles the Spell Focus DC increases as well as the Spell Penetration caster level increases.

That's why it is CL 23rd vs SR where flesh to stone is concerned (and CL 19th for everything else).

VS SPELL RESISTANCE
15 base caster level
04 greater spell penetration
04 spell perfection
23 TOTAL CL vs SR (at least with flesh to stone)

VS SAVING THROWS
10 base
12 Charisma modifier
06 spell level
02 greater spell focus
02 spell penetration
02 school power
01 heighten spell (+1 level)
35 TOTAL SPELL DC (take lower of two rolls due to persistent spell)

This is definitely a "all your eggs in one basket" kind of character. She is specifically designed to get that spell to work as much as possible, blowing past far superior resistances than her level would normally indicate.

Dark Archive

BigNorseWolf wrote:


20% chance of him being affected thanks to his SR

= 15.95% chance of victory in round 1.

Then he walks over to you and casts antimagic field. If you walk away he grapples you. If you stay there you're doomed.

You're skipping a lot of steps. CL to bybass SR is 23 not 15. Should be a 65% chance to bypass SR.


YuenglingDragon wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:


20% chance of him being affected thanks to his SR

= 15.95% chance of victory in round 1.

Then he walks over to you and casts antimagic field. If you walk away he grapples you. If you stay there you're doomed.

You're skipping a lot of steps. CL to bybass SR is 23 not 15. Should be a 65% chance to bypass SR.

i couldn't download his character, its corrected now

Grand Lodge

wraithstrike wrote:

In the Red corner the master of magic, Yiankun Lee.

In the blue corner we an ancient gold dragon, a balor, a pit fiend, and a tarn linnorm.
[]fight 1[/b]
The gold dragon takes a bow and ask Mr.Lee to surrender. Mr. Lee says "No way stupid lizard breath."

Assuming the dragon wins init, and the fight starts 60 feet away.

The dragon moves up 60 feet and readies an action to breath in your face if you try to cast a spell.
20d10

This is a high concentration check

Round 2 it is in full attack range unless you have a way to teleport. If not then it goes for a grapple. I don't see you making that concentration check either.

fight 2
The Balor is up next. It actually has a higher init than you do.
It moves close to you and cast blashemy
PRD:Blasphemy
--->Up to caster level –5 Paralyzed, weakened, dazed
Paralyzed: The creature is paralyzed and helpless for 1d10 minutes. Save reduces the paralyzed effect to 1 round.

Now that you are paralyzed. It power attacks with a full attack. 2d6+31, and unlikely to miss on any attacks means it wins.

PS: I looked at your HP after deciding to full attack
fight 3
The Pit Fiend also has a higher init.
The Pit Fiend has Blasphemy at will, instead of just 1/day. If it wins init then there is no way it should lose the fight. You can make the fort save on a 9, but with enough rolls it keeps you paralyzed until you fail the save. It can also throw 3 quickened fireballs in there while it tries to paralyze you.

fight 4
The Linnorm also has a higher init than you.

It moves up to you and tail slaps you.The concentration check is not looking to good.<--I am assuming it makes the grapple check.

I think the gold dragon has the best chance at losing due to a poor initiative.

This.


1) A Balor.
http://www.d20pfsrd.com/bestiary/monster-listings/outsiders/demon/balor
I will assume none of it's treasure has gone to useful stuff for it...(ie. the best case for you, if not, expect an item of resistance +6). a) It has an init of +11. You will outright win init 30% of the time. You will tie 4% of the time b) If it wins init, you die. Power word stun at will means you are disabled, no save... Then it kills you. c) You casting at it. This assumes the DM won't let it use quickened telekinesis to disrupt your casting.
Sr31 vs effective CL of 23. Your spell succeeds 65% of of the time.
DC 35 Fort 2x over vs +29 Fort save. a 56.25% chance of making both saves.
Multiplying results in a 28.4% chances of killing it.

Including initiative you have a ~9.7% chance of killing it. 4/34 tries when you succeed, it will have a round to kill you, as it tied your init...And it will probably succeed.

2) Gold Dragon (ancient)
http://www.d20pfsrd.com/bestiary/monster-listings/dragons/dragon/metallic-g old/ancient-gold-dragon
Treasure Assumption as before
a) Init outright win 80.5%, tie 3%
b) I'm not going to worry about it killing you from now on...
c) Spell succeeds 65%. 20.25% chance of both saves (assuming +23; this doesn't include the luck ability, would make it +24 & 25%)
51.8% chance of killing with one spell.

With init 41.7% chance of killing it in the 1st round before it acts. Another roughly 1.6% chance of killing it but it has a round to kill you due to tied init...

3) Green Great Wyrm
See gold dragon, but it has a +2 init rather than -1.
a) outright init win 70%, 3.75% chance of a tie.
c) Spell succeeds 65%. 20.25% chance of both saves
51.8% chance of killing with one spell.

With init 36.3% chance of killing it in the 1st round before it acts. Another roughly 2% chance of killing it but it has a round to kill you due to tied init...
X
4)Pit Fiend - see Balor. It has power word stun at will...
a) init + 13... You will outright win init 22.75% of the time. You will tie 3.5% of the time
c) Spell succeeds 65%. 25% chance of both saves
48.75% chance of killing with one spell.

Including init 12.8% chance of killing it. 14/91 tries when you succeed, it will have a round to kill you, as it tied your init...And it will probably succeed.

Okay, I'm bored, I won't bother with the remaining two...

Dark Archive

Deleted for grumpy nature of post.

-YD


YuenglingDragon wrote:
Cold Napalm wrote:


This.
No, not that. Read the OP. Ravingdork wanted math not a theoryhammering of how a fight might go based on supposition. See mine and Pad300's posts for things to "This."

I did not show the math, but even with a 20 on the dice he is not making those concentration checks.

As far as being paralyzed it does not matter what he rolls. For all intents and purposed he is rolling a 1, since even on a 20 he gets paralyzed for one round, which long enough to set up round 2.
The dragon is the only monster that he has a good chance at beating on initiative in round 1, and even that one negates any rolls the caster can make if it grapples him since his rolls won't matter if any of them get to act, assuming the DM runs the monsters like I would.

I can show the math if it is need, but I don't really think it will change anything.

He might win all four fights, but it is not likely. I don't know if the nature of the argument was RD can(even a .01%) win, or he will(99%)win. I think any character can get their butt kicked but the likelihood of it happening is an entirely different matter.

Dark Archive

I removed the text you referred to because it was grumpy and not worth arguing. I guess what I really wanted to say there is that Raving Dork is clearly aware that he has to win Init in all four fights or he loses. That's why he asked for the likelihood that the dice would favor him in all three rolls. While you adequately describe what happens when he doesn't win Init, it really has no bearing on the question at hand.


YuenglingDragon wrote:
I removed the text you referred to because it was grumpy and not worth arguing. I guess what I really wanted to say there is that Raving Dork is clearly aware that he has to win Init in all four fights or he loses. That's why he asked for the likelihood that the dice would favor him in all three rolls. While you adequately describe what happens when he doesn't win Init, it really has no bearing on the question at hand.

I did think he was talking about math for the entire fight at first. Oh well. I guess even uber-powerful demiliches can be wrong from time to time.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

So...a victory is unlikely. I guess that's not too surprising considering I was attempting to solo a CR 20 creature at level 15. :P

I wonder how I would fair against a more appropriate CR 15 encounter.

Let's see, that includes...

...adult gold dragon.
...neolithid.
...pheonix.
...ancient white dragon.

...my money's on the phoenix. I don't think it's made of flesh.

Thanks for the help guys.

Dark Archive

Ravingdork wrote:

So...a victory is unlikely. I guess that's not too surprising considering I was attempting to solo a CR 20 creature at level 15. :P

I wonder how I would fair against a more appropriate CR 15 encounter.

Let's see, that includes...

...adult gold dragon.
...neolithid.
...pheonix.
...ancient white dragon.

...my money's on the phoenix. I don't think it's made of flesh.

Thanks for the help guys.

Adult Gold Dragon:

A 65% chance to win Init. 90% chance to beat SR. 97% chance to fail Fort.

.65 x .9 x .97 = .567

Even when in this far easier situation, the chances of all the rolls going your way is only about 57%. It's your low Initiative score that's killing you.

Neothelid:
.75 x .9 x .99 = .668

About a 67% for turn 1 victory. Getting better.
I'll edit this with more monsters later unless someone beats me to it.

Phoenix:
I'd argue that the Phoenix is actually made of flesh. Its Shroud of Flame ability states that it causes its feathers to burn. Feathers imply flesh to attach to.

Without getting into the specific math, its fort and SR are equal to the Gold Dragon above but its init is higher than yours dropping your chnces for a turn 1 victory dramatically.

Ancient White Dragon:
Better Init and Fort than the Gold Dragon so worse than a 50/50 chance here, too.

You know, if nothing else, this thread has really illustrated for me the value of the path of the God Wizard/Sorcerer. Even as optimized as you can get with this spell, you have a crap chance of getting to do it before it kills the bejeezus out of you. On the bright side, other than your initiative, your chances of this going off are awesome. As long as you can ensure that some other poor schmuck is getting attacked by these monsters (or you get surprise rounds), you can definitely beat them. If you take into account Invisibility and Overland Flight, you can get that surprise round.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

So it seems to me that, even in the worst random encounters (of CR 20 or less), I have at least a 10% survival rate.

I find that extremely interesting.

Most of those CR 20 creatures are incredibly intelligent and have most likely worked a long time to get to where they are.

If I have even a 10% chance of wiping them out of existence, that gives me enough leverage/makes me enough of a threat to truthfully ask "Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?"

Most intelligent creatures with that much to lose won't gamble with those odds (intelligent creatures wait till a win is guaranteed).

I wonder if, upon a chance encounter and with my high Charisma, I could talk such a creature down and have us both walking away (since most sentient creatures don't want to die).

And that's not even counting the party this character likely travels with. With a party at her side, I imagine her chances of survival (one way or another) go WAY up.

EDIT: Hmmm...maybe I should change some of the skills around and get ranks in Diplomacy. That'd be at least a +27 modifier. :D


Ravingdork wrote:

So it seems to me that, even in the worst random encounters (of CR 20 or less), I have at least a 10% survival rate.

I find that extremely interesting.

Most of those CR 20 creatures are incredibly intelligent and have most likely worked a long time to get to where they are.

If I have even a 10% chance of wiping them out of existence, that gives me enough leverage/makes me enough of a threat to truthfully ask "Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?"

Most intelligent creatures with that much to lose won't gamble with those odds (intelligent creatures wait till a win is guaranteed).

I wonder if, upon a chance encounter and with my high Charisma, I could talk such a creature down and have us both walking away (since most sentient creatures don't want to die).

And that's not even counting the party this character likely travels with. With a party at her side, I imagine her chances of survival (one way or another) go WAY up.

EDIT: Hmmm...maybe I should change some of the skills around and get ranks in Diplomacy. That'd be at least a +27 modifier. :D

You are a PC. The average NPC won't have your abilities, and would have his arse handed to him. Such monsters may also have protections in an actual campaign, even if the book does not give them to them because the book can not account for player/DM/group differences.

To add: I doubt a 15th level caster would go unnoticed in a campaign world, and the DM prepared monster would be better prepared than the stock monsters are due to info gathering.

PS:I admit that monsters "spying" on players is more of a DM thing than a rule, but it is something for anyone to take into consideration once they reach high levels.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
wraithstrike wrote:
Ravingdork wrote:

So it seems to me that, even in the worst random encounters (of CR 20 or less), I have at least a 10% survival rate.

I find that extremely interesting.

Most of those CR 20 creatures are incredibly intelligent and have most likely worked a long time to get to where they are.

If I have even a 10% chance of wiping them out of existence, that gives me enough leverage/makes me enough of a threat to truthfully ask "Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?"

Most intelligent creatures with that much to lose won't gamble with those odds (intelligent creatures wait till a win is guaranteed).

I wonder if, upon a chance encounter and with my high Charisma, I could talk such a creature down and have us both walking away (since most sentient creatures don't want to die).

And that's not even counting the party this character likely travels with. With a party at her side, I imagine her chances of survival (one way or another) go WAY up.

EDIT: Hmmm...maybe I should change some of the skills around and get ranks in Diplomacy. That'd be at least a +27 modifier. :D

You are a PC. The average NPC won't have your abilities, and would have his arse handed to him. Such monsters may also have protections in an actual campaign, even if the book does not give them to them because the book can not account for player/DM/group differences.

To add: I doubt a 15th level caster would go unnoticed in a campaign world, and the DM prepared monster would be better prepared than the stock monsters are due to info gathering.

PS:I admit that monsters "spying" on players is more of a DM thing than a rule, but it is something for anyone to take into consideration once they reach high levels.

Eh, if a monster spies on my character, then he is all that more aware of how dangerous I can be.

Works for me. Especially since there aren't too many defenses against petrification that I'm aware of (I'm good at getting past the basic ones such as saves and SR). In the end they will likely have to settle for the usual BBEG defenses such as minions and traps.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

Oh gosh darn it!

I just realized that persistent spell increases the spell slot by 2, rather than one slot as I previously thought it was.

That means the DC is 34, not 35, as I can't heighten the spell by 1 (spell perfection has a 9th-level spell limit). I suppose I could just drop bouncing spell in favor of heighten spell in the above theoretical encounters. At least then the numbers remain correct (or at least as correct as they were to begin with).


Ravingdork wrote:

Eh, if a monster spies on my character, then he is all that more aware of how dangerous I can be.

Works for me. Especially since there aren't too many defenses against petrification that I'm aware of ......

Contingent spell. You just wasted your turning petrifying him, and now he is mad to put it mildly.

The creature, if it is a dragon could have the spell that allows him to cast through an illusion of him set up. There are ways to avoid being targeted for the 1st round which is all that is needed, most likely. Now depending on the party they may be able to help you out of the situation, but dragons fight other dragons of equal CR without fear so I doubt one of the "lesser races"(dragon think) is going to push them around. The horror of the abyss(or Golarion's) equivalent are much more than some mere mortal can conjure up also. Stat blocks aside high level outsiders have enormous resources. If they are afraid of one spell they deserve to be taken out.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
wraithstrike wrote:
Ravingdork wrote:

Eh, if a monster spies on my character, then he is all that more aware of how dangerous I can be.

Works for me. Especially since there aren't too many defenses against petrification that I'm aware of ......

Contingent spell. You just wasted your turning petrifying him, and now he is mad to put it mildly.

The creature, if it is a dragon could have the spell that allows him to cast through an illusion of him set up. There are ways to avoid being targeted for the 1st round which is all that is needed, most likely. Now depending on the party they may be able to help you out of the situation, but dragons fight other dragons of equal CR without fear so I doubt one of the "lesser races"(dragon think) is going to push them around. The horror of the abyss(or Golarion's) equivalent are much more than some mere mortal can conjure up also. Stat blocks aside high level outsiders have enormous resources. If they are afraid of one spell they deserve to be taken out.

Good points all.

Grand Lodge

Ravingdork wrote:

Eh, if a monster spies on my character, then he is all that more aware of how dangerous I can be.

Works for me. Especially since there aren't too many defenses against petrification that I'm aware of (I'm good at getting past the basic ones such as saves and SR). In the end they will likely have to settle for the usual BBEG defenses such as minions and traps.

Or they see you as a threat who should not get more power and take you out using all their resources....


Quote:

VS SAVING THROWS

10 base
12 Charisma modifier
06 spell level
02 greater spell focus
02 spell penetration*
02 school power
01 heighten spell (+1 level)
35 TOTAL SPELL DC (take lower of two rolls due to persistent spell)

I assume that * is spell perfection instead :P

Hm. Without reading the thread, you're probably using bouncing to redirect it back to the creature that made its save, which is against RAI. I'd make it reach instead, turning it from medium to long, so that you have a lot more range on your spell and can then after casting take a move action to flee, giving you a small extra chance to live long enough to cast again.


Ravingdork wrote:

I am NO good at mathematics WHATSOEVER. However, I recently boasted that my 15th-level character could make short work of any 20th-level CR monster my friends could pull our of the Bestiary.

The problem with these kind of things is that a real CR 20+ encounter needs to be planned and detailed out a lot more than just 'roll init and look at the book entry'.

Also the character entry looks a bit weak and badly designed, you might want to work on it if it's a theoretical build. The hps are WAY too low for a 15th level PC, as others mentioned PW Stun ends you. Likewise the spell selection is weak and needs a good deal of work.

One thing to consider in your theoretical fights.. you cast flesh to stone on target A and say 'make two DC 35 fort saves sucker'.. the DM smiles back at you and says 'actually why don't YOU make two fort saves, after a spell craft roll to realize that the spell has been turned back at you'.

-James


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Cold Napalm wrote:
Or they see you as a threat who should not get more power and take you out using all their resources....

Unless they are completely crazy about their power (in the same way the Queen in Snow White was crazy about being the most beautiful maiden) or I've done something to interfere with their goals/rise to power, I imagine such a scenario would be highly unlikely.

Ice Titan wrote:
Quote:

VS SAVING THROWS

10 base
12 Charisma modifier
06 spell level
02 greater spell focus
02 spell penetration*
02 school power
01 heighten spell (+1 level)
35 TOTAL SPELL DC (take lower of two rolls due to persistent spell)

I assume that * is spell perfection instead :P

Hm. Without reading the thread, you're probably using bouncing to redirect it back to the creature that made its save, which is against RAI. I'd make it reach instead, turning it from medium to long, so that you have a lot more range on your spell and can then after casting take a move action to flee, giving you a small extra chance to live long enough to cast again.

Yes, I meant Spell Perfection. My bad.

And no, I wasn't bouncing the spell back to the same target. The target needs to make two saves due to the Persistent Spell metamagic feat. Bouncing spell is just a nice way of making sure SOMEBODY gets hit by it. Fail to take out the BBEG and peg one of his bodyguards/lieutenants instead.

james maissen wrote:
Also the character entry looks a bit weak and badly designed...

Weak and badly designed?! *picks jaw up off the floor* She's an overly focused one trick pony perhaps, but I completely fail to see how she is any weaker than any other sorcerer (if anything, I think she's quite powerful).

As for the hp, she's a 25-point buy character with 3/4 of the maximum variable in hit points! And she has a belt of Constitution +4! If anything, she has more hit points than a typical spellcaster of her level would have.

She may have crap AC, but AC rarely matters at those kinds of levels anyways (it's allies, buffs, and distance that keep enemies off).

Grand Lodge

1) Umm your a level 15 caster...your a level 15 ANYTHING...sorry, but being with powers have tabs on you. And if you can amass enough power to be a viable threat to them...then yes they will take you out. Well the good being may not...but evil one? Hell yeah. Why wait til you become a REAL threat with 30-40% chance of you taking them out when they can just nip that in the bud. Sorry, but, my evil beings are evil little gits and not...you know DUMB.

2) It is considered a bad build specifically BECAUSE it is a one trick pony.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Cold Napalm wrote:
1) Umm your a level 15 caster...your a level 15 ANYTHING...sorry, but being with powers have tabs on you. And if you can amass enough power to be a viable threat to them...then yes they will take you out. Well the good being may not...but evil one? Hell yeah. Why wait til you become a REAL threat with 30-40% chance of you taking them out when they can just nip that in the bud. Sorry, but, my evil beings are evil little gits and not...you know DUMB.

I follow the Forgotten Realms logic. That is, just because you are powerful does not necessarily mean you will be targeted or that you will want to target others. Why take a 10% chance of being destroyed to stop someone who might become a threat? It's better to focus one's energies on those you know to be a threat or those that are likely to become a threat.

I think Elminster himself had a quote somewhere about why he and others didn't just actively hunt down all the evils of the realms. I'd quote it if I could find it.

EDIT: Keep in mind that, being an adventurer, it is quite likely that I've made some enemies along the way. Probably stepped on the toes of a dragon or two, or some dictator with the resources to have a crack team of high level assassins hired or balor summoned, or something like that. I don't view this as the same thing as the GM saying "A balor has noticed your exploits and has come to kill you, well, just because."

Cold Napalm wrote:
2) It is considered a bad build specifically BECAUSE it is a one trick pony.

Are you saying that because that's what I labeled it (something I'm beginning to regret), or because you've actually taken the time to look at the character in detail and have arrived to that conclusion after some thought?

The character's spell list is actually rather versatile I think (though I'm considering dropping Move Earth in exchange for Veil).

Grand Lodge

Ravingdork wrote:
Cold Napalm wrote:
1) Umm your a level 15 caster...your a level 15 ANYTHING...sorry, but being with powers have tabs on you. And if you can amass enough power to be a viable threat to them...then yes they will take you out. Well the good being may not...but evil one? Hell yeah. Why wait til you become a REAL threat with 30-40% chance of you taking them out when they can just nip that in the bud. Sorry, but, my evil beings are evil little gits and not...you know DUMB.

I follow the Forgotten Realms logic. That is, just because you are powerful does not necessarily mean you will be targeted or that you will want to target others. Why take a 10% chance of being destroyed to stop someone who might become a threat? It's better to focus one's energies on those you know to be a threat or those that are likely to become a threat.

I think Elminster himself had a quote somewhere about why he and others didn't just actively hunt down all the evils of the realms. I'd quote it if I could find it.

EDIT: Keep in mind that, being an adventurer, it is quite likely that I've made some enemies along the way. Probably stepped on the toes of a dragon or two, or some dictator with the resources to have a crack team of high level assassins hired or balor summoned, or something like that. I don't view this as the same thing as the GM saying "A balor has noticed your exploits and has come to kill you, well, just because."

Umm elminster is a GOOD guy remember? And yes if the bad guys have bigger fish to fry...and they usually would, then they would save you for later or until you become strong enough or a pest enough to no longer ignore...but make no mistakes, your on their to do list.

Quote:
Cold Napalm wrote:
2) It is considered a bad build specifically BECAUSE it is a one trick pony.

Are you saying that because that's what I labeled it (something I'm beginning to regret), or because you've actually taken the time to look at the character in detail and have arrived to that conclusion after some thought?

The character's spell list is actually rather versatile I think (though I'm considering dropping Move Earth in exchange for Veil).

Because it IS a one trick pony. Your feats are based on doing that one trick at the cost of doing other things well. Well about as one trick as a caster gets anyways.


Ravingdork wrote:

So it seems to me that, even in the worst random encounters (of CR 20 or less), I have at least a 10% survival rate.

I find that extremely interesting.

Most of those CR 20 creatures are incredibly intelligent and have most likely worked a long time to get to where they are.

If I have even a 10% chance of wiping them out of existence, that gives me enough leverage/makes me enough of a threat to truthfully ask "Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?"

Most intelligent creatures with that much to lose won't gamble with those odds (intelligent creatures wait till a win is guaranteed).

...

RD, this is extremely interesting.

You talk about most intelligent creatures not wanting to gamble on a 10% chance of losing, yet your PC is apparently willing to gamble on a 50% or worse chance of losing? What does this say about your PC?

Ravingdork wrote:

Cold Napalm wrote:

Or they see you as a threat who should not get more power and take you out using all their resources....

Unless they are completely crazy about their power (in the same way the Queen in Snow White was crazy about being the most beautiful maiden) or I've done something to interfere with their goals/rise to power, I imagine such a scenario would be highly unlikely.

It's not about power or what you've done to them so much as eliminating potential threats. Why did we cheer when Israel bombed the Iraqi reactor? In 81' Iraq was still out ally in the fight against Iran. But we didn't want them to have an A-bomb anymore then, than we want the Taliban to have one now.

Depending on your level of paranoia, pre-emptive strikes can look very attractive.


Ravingdork wrote:


Weak and badly designed?! *picks jaw up off the floor* She's an overly focused one trick pony perhaps, but I completely fail to see how she is any weaker than any other sorcerer (if anything, I think she's quite powerful).

As for the hp, she's a 25-point buy character with 3/4 of the maximum variable in hit points! And she has a belt of Constitution +4! If anything, she has more hit points than a typical spellcaster of her level would have.

She may have crap AC, but AC rarely matters at those kinds of...

Let's start with the hps.. you have 114hps at 15th level.. that's LOW. On a 25pt buy you only bought a 13CON. Nor did you decide to shore this up with even a simple investment in false life (which empowered would net you 22 more hps on average) as a known spell. With a minimal change you're looking at 151hps or so, which depending on dice rolls and before you're scratched can have you at least avoid an initial power word stun.

All of your defenses are weak, not just AC. You have very little mitigating this.

This reads like a PC that was designed quickly (especially when you look at the gear). I imagine that this is either a PC you designed just for this post or one that you've projected a few levels into the future. It doesn't read like a 15th level PC.

Am I wrong?

-James


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
james maissen wrote:
Let's start with the hps.. you have 114hps at 15th level.. that's LOW. On a 25pt buy you only bought a 13CON. Nor did you decide to shore this up with even a simple investment in false life (which empowered would net you 22 more hps on average) as a known spell. With a minimal change you're looking at 151hps or so, which depending on dice rolls and before you're scratched can have you at least avoid an initial power word stun.

All the level increase points went into her primary spellcasting stat. That isn't so atypical for a spellcaster is it?

So let me get this straight, according to you and others, anyone who doesn't invest, what, like a 16 in their Constitution score at first level has made a weak spellcasting character? Even with a 25 point buy, I don't see how you can honestly expect a spellcaster to have great spellcasting abilities (primary casting stat), be able to go first on initiative almost all the time (Dexterity), AND have buckets of hit points (Constitution). You gotta make cuts somewhere dude.

I think your expectations of a "typical character" are a fair bit unrealistic.

james maissen wrote:

This reads like a PC that was designed quickly (especially when you look at the gear). I imagine that this is either a PC you designed just for this post or one that you've projected a few levels into the future. It doesn't read like a 15th level PC.

Am I wrong?

-James

I SPENT MONTHS FLESHING THIS BUILD OUT!!! *displays an incredulous slack-jawed look*

EDIT: Well, on and off, anyways. :P

Grand Lodge

Ravingdork wrote:
james maissen wrote:

This reads like a PC that was designed quickly (especially when you look at the gear). I imagine that this is either a PC you designed just for this post or one that you've projected a few levels into the future. It doesn't read like a 15th level PC.

Am I wrong?

-James

I SPENT MONTHS FLESHING THIS BUILD OUT!!! *displays an incredulous slack-jawed look*

EDIT: Well, on and off, anyways. :P

I'm not sure you wanna admit that....


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
therealthom wrote:

RD, this is extremely interesting.

You talk about most intelligent creatures not wanting to gamble on a 10% chance of losing, yet your PC is apparently willing to gamble on a 50% or worse chance of losing? What does this say about your PC?

She's an adventurer. That alone should explain the insanity.

"Adventuring is something no sane person with an IQ higher than their age would do. You endure crappy conditions most of the time, making camp in the wilderness even if it seems as if the weather gods hate you, you don't get to have a proper wash, you have to eat crappy food, and are bored most of the time. And when you're not bored, you face mortal danger and horrors you couldn't come up even in your worst, bed-wetting nightmares. And for what? For some shiny metal you use to buy useless crap that won't let you do anything other than keep up this miserable lifestyle for longer. The standard state of mind for an adventurer is STARK RAVING MAD, because sane people would just get a normal job and live comfortable lives." - Some other forum poster whose name I don't recall

Cold Napalm wrote:
I'm not sure you wanna admit that....

I'm proud to admit that. She's a powerful character. She's got a few weaknesses, sure, but what character doesn't? Despite what the vocal minority here says, she would annihilate almost anything of her CR or lower without breaking a sweat. By herself! That (at least from a combat perspective) doesn't make her powerful, it makes her brokenly powerful.


Ravingdork wrote:

I SPENT MONTHS FLESHING THIS BUILD OUT!!! *displays an incredulous slack-jawed look*

EDIT: Well, on and off, anyways. :P

Really?

It looks like it was made fairly quickly and it certainly doesn't have much depth into it. Just seems as if you went with 'how high a DC could I get' and crunched numbers for a half hour at most. No offense meant on this mind you.

Your spell list needs a lot of work, your feats need a bit as well (likely to tweak in response to thoughts about spells), and your items certainly need a ton of thought in them.

Are you going to play this PC with a group of other players that also haven't ever played PCs up to this level as well? Is this also the same for the DM?

You might get away with things here if you're all in the same boat, but if you're the odd man out then you might have a very rude awakening.

In general this is why I prefer to play PCs up to higher levels as you perforce spend the time designing them and getting used to them.

Even with the horribly picked spell list that a CR 20 gold dragon has (i.e. both teleport and greater teleport as spells known) not to mention its bad feat selection (4-5 feats spent in improved critical), the dragon is likely to fry you. Simply changing its spells up a little (say swaping greater teleport for spell turning) and you're the statue if you win init and just dead otherwise (as you likely fail the dragon breath save, take another d6 fire from proximity, and eat an AOO to leave the area of its quickened silence).

-James


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

*sighs*

Any other advice for improving her then, since you guys seem to be such experts on the matter?

Many of the spells on her spell list were to emulate an "earth sorcerer" theme. It wasn't all JUST numbers.

I've already switched out Move Earth for Veil, which I think gives her some better out of combat versatility.

I've also dropped Knock for False Life (I just don't see myself using Knock as much as I would False Life), Dimension Door for Heroism (no need for multiple teleports, but self buffs and ally buffs are a little short), and Secure Shelter for Haste (which every spellcaster with minions/party members should have).


Cold Napalm wrote:
2) It is considered a bad build specifically BECAUSE it is a one trick pony.

Personally I find one-trick pony type characters more fun to play,, I'd rather be ridiculously good at one thing and hope the rest of my party can help balance out my weaknesses :P

I can understand why that might sound bad though!
The last character I made was a ranger who was mediocre to average at most things, but could rip apart a higher level dragon with his bare hands.. not so good most times but every once in a while AWESOME


Ravingdork wrote:

*sighs*

Any other advice for improving her then, since you guys seem to be such experts on the matter?

Many of the spells on her spell list were to emulate an "earth sorcerer" theme. It wasn't all JUST numbers.

I've already switched out Move Earth for Veil, which I think gives her some better out of combat versatility.

I've also dropped Knock for False Life (I just don't see myself using Knock as much as I would False Life), Dimension Door for Heroism (no need for multiple teleports, but self buffs and ally buffs are a little short), and Secure Shelter for Haste (which every spellcaster with minions/party members should have).

I have no idea what point buy you use so I will assume 20 and PF only. You have way too many wands.

HP:6+(3.5 X 14)+(3 x 15)= 100 HP
Init = 9

Starting point buy:
Str 8(9 base -2 for being a halfing, +1 leveling) -1
Dex 20(12 base +2 race, +6 belt of dexterity) 2
Con 14 5
Int 10 0
Wis 14 5
Cha 26(16 base +2 for race, +2 for leveling, +6 Headband of Charisma) 10

wealth 240000 according to WBL

Gear are all I will be changing

Belt of Incredible Dexterity +6 36000

Headband of Charisma +6 36000

Cloak of Resistance + 5 25000

Rod of Metamagic Extend 11000

Cloak of Displacement, Major 50000 Much better than AC unless the monster has true seeing.

Ring of Counterspell 4000

Ring of Freedom of Movement 40000 You won't grapple me.

Stone of Good Luck (Luckstone) 20000 +1 to skills, checks, and saving throws.
I have spent 222000. I will assume the rest is used for scrolls and other consumables and/or is being saved for the next big purchase.

Honestly I don't approve of 1 trick ponies because they are too easy to negate. Considering the price of a +5 tome I am assuming your DM allows the crafting feats to bypass WBL. I did not notice you had the feat until after I chose my items, but I think I have done well enough. As a sorcerer I probably won't run out of spells anyway, and the DC is still high enough, assuming any SoD moments come up to remain a threat.

I was too lazy to redo the spell list.


Ravingdork wrote:

*sighs*

Any other advice for improving her then, since you guys seem to be such experts on the matter?

Many of the spells on her spell list were to emulate an "earth sorcerer" theme. It wasn't all JUST numbers.

I've already switched out Move Earth for Veil, which I think gives her some better out of combat versatility.

I've also dropped Knock for False Life (I just don't see myself using Knock as much as I would False Life), Dimension Door for Heroism (no need for multiple teleports, but self buffs and ally buffs are a little short), and Secure Shelter for Haste (which every spellcaster with minions/party members should have).

Dimenion Door has no verbal component, IIRC.


Ravingdork wrote:

*sighs*

Any other advice for improving her then, since you guys seem to be such experts on the matter?

Many of the spells on her spell list were to emulate an "earth sorcerer" theme. It wasn't all JUST numbers.

I've already switched out Move Earth for Veil, which I think gives her some better out of combat versatility.

I've also dropped Knock for False Life (I just don't see myself using Knock as much as I would False Life), Dimension Door for Heroism (no need for multiple teleports, but self buffs and ally buffs are a little short), and Secure Shelter for Haste (which every spellcaster with minions/party members should have).

Honestly, I think your character is fairly impressive. Your one trick is quite a trick. I do see some areas you could use some improvement, but I’d hardly call myself an expert.

Feats-

Spoiler:

You used a ton of feats to crank up your spell DC. I think you could afford to lose a few in favor of versatility and defense. I’d ditch Heightened Spell, and Bouncing Spell and replace them with Improved Familiar and Toughness. An imp or mephit with your ranks in UMD has an 85% chance to activate a wand, this really improves your action economy.

Spells-

Spoiler:

I know you have kind of a theme going, but with a Sorcerer you really want to steer clear of spells that duplicate effects. You have no way to see invisible opponents and you can’t Summon Monsters. Here is the list I would choose for that character.
1- Mage Armor, Shield, Magic Missile, Identify, Protection form Evil, Ventriloquism
2- Invisibility, False Life, Make Whole, Mirror Image, Scorching Ray, Glitterdust
3- Haste, Slow, Major Image, Protection from Energy, Shrink Item (I don’t like the spell but I’m trying to keep some of your flavor.
4- Charm monster, Dimensional Anchor, Enervation, Black Tentacles, Stone shape, Stoneskin
5- Teleport, Overland Flight, Telekinesis, Transmute Rock to Mud, Wall of Stone
6- Beast Shape IV, Chain Lightning, Flesh to Stone, Greater Dispel Magic, Move Earth, True Seeing
7- Elemental Form IV, Summon Monster VII (what's more "Earth Sorcerer" than Summoning a Greater Earth Elemental or 1D4+1 Large ones), Limited Wish

Gear

Spoiler:

I know you want the best DC possible for your spells, but you pay an awesome price for the Tome of Leadership and Influence, and you have Craft Wondrous Item but you only used up 3 slots. If you dropped the tome from a +5 to a +3 you only loose one point of DC and get back 55,000 GP in gear. Consider this:

Ring of Force Shielding- 8500 GP
Ring of Protection +3- 9000 GP
Amulet of Natural Armor +3- 18,000 GP
Stone of Good Luck- 20,000 GP

+8 to AC which you can stack w/ Mage Armor, +1 to All Saves, Skill and ability Checks all for 1 point of spell DC. And that is just using gear out of the book if you can custom make items it can get really silly.
Stat boosting items are the best bang for your buck. All the costs are based on squares so it is more cost effective to stack bonuses of multiple types than get one big bonus.

Your Wand selection could use some work too. If you go with the Improved Familiar, think low cost wands that still do something, but wouldn't be worth your action like Wand of Shield 750 GP, Wand of CLW 750 GP -which with the Improved Familiar almost becomes like an 85% chance to regenerate 1D8+1, Wand of MM CL 9 6250 GP (not something a 15th Spell caster should be doing, but your familiar becomes a 17.5 DPR combatant) If you are going to go with the Improved Familiar I'd invest the 4000 GP in a Headband of Alluring Charisma, it gives him UMD +18.


wraithstrike wrote:


Cloak of Resistance + 5 25000

Cloak of Displacement, Major 50000 Much better than AC unless the monster has true seeing.

You have two cloaks, but I agree the CoD is better than AC. I just don't see how he can afford to loose the +5 to all saves. If his DM allowed it though since he has Craft Wondrous Item I'd go with Boots of Displacement, but then somewhere in his spell selection he has to make room for Displacement.


Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber; Pathfinder Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Demigorgon 8 My Baby wrote:
You have no way to see invisible opponents...

She has true seeing. That should be enough (though I do need to switch something out for the components before she sees play).


Demigorgon 8 My Baby wrote:
wraithstrike wrote:


Cloak of Resistance + 5 25000

Cloak of Displacement, Major 50000 Much better than AC unless the monster has true seeing.

You have two cloaks, but I agree the CoD is better than AC. I just don't see how he can afford to loose the +5 to all saves. If his DM allowed it though since he has Craft Wondrous Item I'd go with Boots of Displacement, but then somewhere in his spell selection he has to make room for Displacement.

Darn it. In that case use the Cloak of displacement money for more rods of metamagic, and some other useful item.

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