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Okay, so we started having this discussion in another thread but to avoid any more threadjacking, I decided to open a new thread to discuss it. What do you think are the possibilities that the next major war will be between Russia and China? Here are the facts:
1) China and Russia share a long land border and China has a powerful army.
2) Siberia has major undeveloped or under developed deposits of natural resources.
3)China has a large surplus population of men and are concerned with rising violence as these men come of age without a woman to temper their instincts.
4)There is a growing discontent in Siberia for Moscow's policies which could lead to an independence movement there.
There is more that can be found here if you are interested. Discuss.
I vote for Ivan.
Siberian independence is fine with me, but better it stay Russian than go Chinese. China's gobbled up enough neighbors.
I don't think it'll happen, due to MAD and Russia's dead hand system.
Compared to other times in the past, a war between Russia and China today is pretty much completely unthinkable. Neither side really has anything the other needs so badly they'd go to war over it.
At the moment, a war between China and the USA over Taiwan is much more likely, although still vanishingly small as a realistic probability, than a war between Russia and China.
The next major war will more likely be between North Korea and the South, between Israel and Iran, or, most likely despite relations improving from a low point in 2001-02, India and Pakistan.
MAD only works if loosing a few citizens is actually aproblem for you. Otherwise it falls apart.
Unless of course your industrial knowledge and political elite are very concentrated. I don't get the impression that China's well educated and politically savy are all that decentralized. I suspect if you cut out the main leadership, you'd end up with a country with a very large population of peasants and surprisingly little infrastructure.(Obviously I could be completely wrong about that, but even if you just turned the coast line into a radioactive beach you'd destroy their capacity to export good and financially ruin them, and that's ignoring the human casualty element.
besides most of Russia's missiles are still aimed at the U.S. and Europe, which actually helps the Chinese remove a few more players from the board.
I suspect that given the USSR's past skirmishs with China, switching targets isn't that difficult at all.
2) Siberia has major undeveloped or under developed deposits of natural resources.
There are reasons for this, like 12 inches of permafrost. Getting at these resources will require significant investment infrastructure. This makes war an unlikely solution.
Further, Russia would probably be very happy to have China come in and develop some of the necessary infrastructure (roads, pipelines) as long as the contracts were favorable to Russia. One of the major arms of Russia's foreign policy is energy.
3)China has a large surplus population of men and are concerned with rising violence as these men come of age without a woman to temper their instincts.
China can, and probably will, continue to basically import women from SE Asia. This doesn't need to be government policy. Urban migration is often driven by economic realities, and the reality is that China is hiring.
4)There is a growing discontent in Siberia for Moscow's policies which could lead to an independence movement there.
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
The thing to remember is that while these countries have not necessarily embraced democracy, they have embraced capitalism (just not a completely free marketplace).
I see a number of other problems with this scenario as well.
A) China's military trends are clearly aiming for a smaller better trained and better equipped force. The kind of peoples war, military doctrine they'd need for full on war with a state as powerful as Russia has largely been left behind for the last 15 or so years of military development and they'd need some significant time to implement it. Right know China can move and support a handful of divisions outside of their borders and they've gotten to the point where they actually have some fairly good power projection for a handful of elite divisions but they don't have anyway of trying to support dozens of divisions in a remote wastland. Their divisions would starve to death on the Russian Steppe if they tried to invade with any significant numbers. The Russians however are well practiced in keeping many divisions deployed in the far east and should be able to manage.
So militarily this is unfeasible at the moment.
B) Both sides often have what the other wants. The amount of gains in trade these two nations potentially have is extremely high and each side can conceivably gain most of what it is looking for without the problems of war.
C) They're allied. Russia and China are in a military alliance that pretty much reads "We fear the United States". Politically the alliance has troubles as it turns out fearing the United States is about all they have in common in terms of wider geopolitical objectives (Russia usually cares about whats going on in the west while China is interested in the Pacific) but the alliance is tight enough that the best fighter plane in the Chinese arsenal is the Russian created SU-27 (easily one of the best fighters in the world and, with a good pilot, comparable to anything made in the West). This is a good example of gains in trade. The Russians are struggling in a lot of ways economically but they do have raw resources which China wants and they still make some very solid military equipment which China likes to buy.
D) Geography. We think of China as being this heavily overpopulated place with little real estate they can develop...were wrong. Its what? 3rd or 4th largest country on earth. Not only that but those huge numbers of people are not evenly spread out at all. The vast majority of them are living in the fertile flood plains along China's coast. Maybe a third or so of the country is heavily populated. The other two thirds, toward the interior is much less populated, the northern expanses border Siberia and presumably would offer much the same kind of resources they might find in Siberia. Bottom line here is that China has a hinterland and they've not tapped it out by any means - there is simply no conceivable need for a war until they do.
E) Furthermore resource rich Siberia is not developed either - all those wonderful oil beds are out around the Caucus with a few spreading out near the border with Kazakhstan (which has a pretty good oil industry itself, inherited from the Russians). The distances involved in the Chinese getting to these areas are truly and awesomely huge. There is simply no way they have the infrastructure to pull it off. It'd take them a year to march all that way.
The whole thing brings to mind something one of the Russian Czar's said "Two of my best generals are named January and February".
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Oh no doubt! but Jet is a bit of a pacifist despite his movies. Jackie is growing long in the tooth. hhmmm Maybe Russia has a chance.They've also got Jet Li.....I vote for Ivan.the Chinese have Jackie Chan......
I don't know. If it came down to it, Jet and Jackie could still kick some ass. Besides, isn't China also friendly with Mongolia? What if they decide to reconstitute the Mongol Hordes?
I don't think China will give up its new found world acceptance for a land grab.
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I don't know. If it came down to it, Jet and Jackie could still kick some ass. Besides, isn't China also friendly with Mongolia? What if they decide to reconstitute the Mongol Hordes?Oh no doubt! but Jet is a bit of a pacifist despite his movies. Jackie is growing long in the tooth. hhmmm Maybe Russia has a chance.They've also got Jet Li.....I vote for Ivan.the Chinese have Jackie Chan......
Is that a PrC?
I don't know. If it came down to it, Jet and Jackie could still kick some ass. Besides, isn't China also friendly with Mongolia? What if they decide to reconstitute the Mongol Hordes?Oh no doubt! but Jet is a bit of a pacifist despite his movies. Jackie is growing long in the tooth. hhmmm Maybe Russia has a chance.They've also got Jet Li.....I vote for Ivan.the Chinese have Jackie Chan......
Most of the Mongol Hordes are Russians now.
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I don't thik China will give up it new found world acceptance for a land grab.
Yeah, but they could pull a Putin manuver, as with Georgia and South Ossetia (did I get that correct?). If, as someone above stated, a separatist movement starts in Siberia, China could maybe claim they are just helping these dudes claim their freedom.
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Folks, you don't know that much of Russians, do you? For one thing, Chinese are very much interested in Russia's agricultural resources. Tens of thousands of Chinese are working on Russia's farms and exporting the food to China. Russia is huge country with population problems, not only in Siberia, but in Central Asia as well. So, they need workforce.
But, in eventual war Russia will win. There is no country in the world that can beat Russia in an armed conflict. Reason for that is simple: Russians are mad.
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
But what if I wish for it really hard?
Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
*Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>
*Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
You have to wish upon a star!
Unfortunately, Texas only has one, and its overwished-on.
Well, I could just skip the middle man and go find the blue fairy. Shouldn't be too hard to find. I only live like 30 minutes from San Francisco after all. *Rimshot*
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Well, I could just skip the middle man and go find the blue fairy. Shouldn't be too hard to find. I only live like 30 minutes from San Francisco after all. *Rimshot**Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
You have to wish upon a star!
Unfortunately, Texas only has one, and its overwished-on.
Yes, but how are you going to make him blue? :P
Yes, but how are you going to make him blue? :PWell, I could just skip the middle man and go find the blue fairy. Shouldn't be too hard to find. I only live like 30 minutes from San Francisco after all. *Rimshot**Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
You have to wish upon a star!
Unfortunately, Texas only has one, and its overwished-on.
Get him excited and the tell him you only like him as a friend.
Yes, but how are you going to make him blue? :PWell, I could just skip the middle man and go find the blue fairy. Shouldn't be too hard to find. I only live like 30 minutes from San Francisco after all. *Rimshot**Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
You have to wish upon a star!
Unfortunately, Texas only has one, and its overwished-on.
Have you been to San Francisco? A blue gay man is nowhere near the wierdist thing you'd see in any given day.
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Have you been to San Francisco? A blue gay man is nowhere near the wierdist thing you'd see in any given day.Yes, but how are you going to make him blue? :PWell, I could just skip the middle man and go find the blue fairy. Shouldn't be too hard to find. I only live like 30 minutes from San Francisco after all. *Rimshot**Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
You have to wish upon a star!
Unfortunately, Texas only has one, and its overwished-on.
Yeah I know. Xabulba got the joke better than you though. :P
Who would win?
America.
I vote for Ivan.
Interestingly, one of my professors from grad school is from Russia. He made the comment last summer that the Russian economy was in such shambles they do not even have the resources to build tanks for battle fields. Russian tanks are pretty much the staple of a Russian army. So, I'm leaning toward the Chinese on this one. But I'm not sure what the Chinese want from Russia that they have not already sold them to begin with.
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Yeah I know. Xabulba got the joke better than you though. :PHave you been to San Francisco? A blue gay man is nowhere near the wierdist thing you'd see in any given day.Yes, but how are you going to make him blue? :PWell, I could just skip the middle man and go find the blue fairy. Shouldn't be too hard to find. I only live like 30 minutes from San Francisco after all. *Rimshot**Sigh* Disney lied to me >.>Yeah don't think that will help much.But what if I wish for it really hard?
This is akin to Texas leaving the Union. Not going to happen.
You have to wish upon a star!
Unfortunately, Texas only has one, and its overwished-on.
"Why go to the zoo? I live in San Francisco. All I have to do is open my front door to see the wildlife." - Robin Williams.
They've also got Jet Li.....
…but Russia has Dmitry Chaplin!
They've also got Jet Li.....…but Russia has Dmitry Chaplin!
So... there's another point for China.
China v Russia have had many border clashes when Russia was the USSR. Nothing major but there is a level mistrust there.
In a serious non nuclear war, China would win because they have all of the logistical advantages. Distance would cripple the Russians as they have further to project their force.
India v China is something to watch out for they have had the odd "border dispute" of the shooting at each other kind. the Indian's have put guys into space and therefore can put together ICBMs not that they need the distance. India's main rival Pakistan (sadly) is imploding (that is a whole other thread). Both were super powers in the past and are well on there way to becoming superpowers again.
USA v China, both have too much too loose and while the US military at this time is superior, the Chinese have the capability to cripple the US economy before a war starts. I note with interest that before 9/11 George, Karl, Don & Dick were trying to set China up as the big bad because the NeoCon belief was that they needed something to focus the will of the people against and keep America strong.
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Okay so just to address a few things that have been mentioned. One thing that gets glossed over in most history lessons about World War II was that France was Germany's largest trading partner in 1939, just prior to the invasion. Also permifrost presents much less of a problem with modern earth moving and drilling equipment. Of course this is all just hypothetical based on trends observed by the State Department. It may not happen at all. But as gamers it is fun to hypothosize, since that really is what we do right?
So which side has zombies?
For the horde!
Compared to other times in the past, a war between Russia and China today is pretty much completely unthinkable. Neither side really has anything the other needs so badly they'd go to war over it.
At the moment, a war between China and the USA over Taiwan is much more likely, although still vanishingly small as a realistic probability, than a war between Russia and China.
The next major war will more likely be between North Korea and the South, between Israel and Iran, or, most likely despite relations improving from a low point in 2001-02, India and Pakistan.
As a former USN member who actually was part of a carrier group playing policeman during the Taiwan elections a decade plus back...I think that is a realistic problem.
Now that Iran is a "nuclear state" all three of your upper scenarios become cold wars. They all have enough nukes to obliterate each other (most those places would only need 1 or 2.)
Now that Iran is a "nuclear state" all three of your upper scenarios become cold wars. They all have enough nukes to obliterate each other (most those places would only need 1 or 2.)
Not yet. Iran just announced that it has made some 20% enriched uranium. I hear they need 80% or 90% and a good deal of it to start making bombs. Then they have to build and test the bombs. Israel already has nukes, the figures I've heard are in the 100+ range. So Israel has the upper hand for now. And while they do, the motivation to attack is very high. As will the motivation for the US to sit back and let them, so that we don't have to.
As for China and Russia, just give them a few decades of growth and a few decades of Russian economic stagnation, and China might just be able to buy Siberia.
As for China and Russia, just give them a few decades of growth and a few decades of Russian economic stagnation, and China might just be able to buy Siberia.
It happened in the past when Tsar Alexander II needed money.
Not yet. Iran just announced that it has made some 20% enriched uranium.
This is widely seen as hollow boasting and red meat for the Basiji. Most intelligence estimates place the real value around 5%. Also, they can barely keep their current enrichment facility in Natanz running at less than 100% capacity.
To respond to the OP, the problem with permafrost isn't drilling through it, it is traveling and, most especially, building on it, as it is inherently unstable.
Stripping it requires years of time. Building on piles requires a lot of supplies, regular maintenance, transportation infrastructure, sufficient local power and full time engineers. Neither are war time activities.
You certainly can develop resources under permafrost, but the cost is prohibitive, especially if your rival will just blow it up in a week.
I vote for Ivan.Interestingly, one of my professors from grad school is from Russia. He made the comment last summer that the Russian economy was in such shambles they do not even have the resources to build tanks for battle fields. Russian tanks are pretty much the staple of a Russian army. So, I'm leaning toward the Chinese on this one. But I'm not sure what the Chinese want from Russia that they have not already sold them to begin with.
Even if they could not build them at the moment it'd not matter for some time. The Russians are sitting on a stockpile of more then 20,000 tanks. Mostly older T-73's but its still a very usable tank and pretty comparable to Chinese models. The Chinese on the other hand have comparably few. Last I looked they fielded about 500 tanks, less then Isreal's 700 or so Main Battle Tanks. America, for comparison has around 15,000 tanks but almost all of them are first class M1Ax Abrams meaning that they far outclass even the Russians and no one else even comes close to that kind of number - especially that many high quality MBTs.
