Sense Motive: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (16) + 6 = 22
Diplomacy: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (13) + 6 = 19
What are they holding back?
Smiling at Oleg, "Knowing bandits, 'bastards' is probably correct all around. This 'Stag Lord' wouldn't be the first byblow cast off by a lord to seek power and recognition whatever way he could. If that is his history." Tilting his head thoughtfully, "Though he is perhaps unusually arrogant and foolish. To take a name like that as a bandit in lands where Old Deadeye holds sway... there will be a reckoning for certain."
Looking at the rest of the party before focusing on Svetlana, "And that reckoning may be soon indeed if you are right about their schedule. In fact, perhaps one of us should keep watch while the rest eat." Alexei makes to stand and unless someone says or motions to the contrary, he moves to the watcher tower they first spotted Oleg in.