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So in book 2 of the Dead Suns AP (Temple of the Twelve Suns) we have a map of a few constellations of stars (including 2 unknown ones and a secret message) as they were when the structure was built.
We know that stars move over time and that over hundreds of years (and for other stars for thousands of years) their position in the sky changes. We have had 300 years to study how quickly they move across space (and while that isn't a lot of time for some stars, with advanced scientific equipment I expect it should be more than enough to know the speeds at which most of the stars move) and we know where they currently are. It wouldn't be too difficult to plug in those details into a simulator to work out how many years would have to pass to match their position as shown in the scientifically accurate Temple of the Twelve Suns (and it's specifically mentioned that the star map is scientifically accurate).
What does this do? Well it doesn't tell them how long the Gap lasted. But it does tell give them a maximum length of time that the Gap can't be greater than. If the GM was so inclined he could say that the Planelliar knows how much time passed between when he was stationed at the temple and when the Gap occurred (it would take a very rigorous mind to withstand millenia of monotony. I personally won't have that be the case. I'll have the Planelliar retreating his consciousness into a dormant state and basically operating on auto pilot until such time as some stimulus occurred for him to awaken from his vegetative state. But another GM could rule in a different direction if they were so inclined) and you then actually have an accurate start time for the Gap.
Finally we know that when the elves of Soyvorian emigrated back to Golarion (in 2632 AR) a group of them instead chose to travel to Ukulam instead. Now we don't know how long they were on the continent before they built their temple, so a GM would have to determine that (I'd probably say between 500 years and 1,000 years myself) and then work out how long that is until the present day.
Now all of this of course relies on GM fiat to allow the PC's to do this. A GM could simply say "No. The computer simulations for some inexplicable reason crash before they can return a result. It would take someone years to do it by hand and even then they go insane while doing so." But for me that isn't fun. If my player's go to the effort of carefully taking down the position of the constellation from the temple, go to the effort to compare that to where the stars are now, take it to a researcher and mathematician and get them to plug in the numbers to their simulator then hell yeah they should be rewarded with getting an actual answer.
So my question is: Does anyone see a flaw in my reasoning with the above? Or should it all work (with a GM whose willing to let his players do so assuming they think of the idea themselves)?
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The flaw is that the gap was caused by magic, and magic (especially got level magic) doesn't need to worry about the sense or impossibility of a thing.
One of the things that magic did was mess with every. single. thing. that could conceivably tell you anything about the gap. Including the solid stone/gems of the temple of 12 stars. So examining the temple will give you a rough idea of an age, but examining an equally old other astronomical structure will get you a slightly different age, because they've been messed with.
The flaw is that the gap was caused by magic, and magic (especially got level magic) doesn't need to worry about the sense or impossibility of a thing.
Sure. If you want to explain why it doesn't work you can definitely use that trope (see my above examples of computer programs crashing and mathematicians going insane)
One of the things that magic did was mess with every. single. thing. that could conceivably tell you anything about the gap. Including the solid stone/gems of the temple of 12 stars. So examining the temple will give you a rough idea of an age, but examining an equally old other astronomical structure will get you a slightly different age, because they've been messed with.
Can you point me to where this is? Because the adventure specifically points out as saying that the constellations and their movement are scientifically accurate. So I'd like to reconcile that with the passage you're drawing on.
What I do see on Gap is page 424 of the Starfinder Core Rulebook which says that history is fine for the last 300ish years and then it goes wonky for the period before that until you eventually get to the "dim and misty ages of the ancient past." Given that the Temple of the Twelve describes the Oatian emigration from Ukulam as being "millennia ago" I feel comfortable saying that the historical record in the Temple of the Twelve falls into the category of the "dim and misty ages of the ancient past" which makes it reliable. Now I totally understand that you might not make that interpretation as a GM (and that's a completely valid choice) but it's one I'm willing to make unless you have further information that I haven't read which contradicts that assertion (and if you do have that information, I'd be happy for you to point it out to me so I can see what it says).
Now let's assume I'm a GM that doesn't want to block any attempts by the PC's to find out even a glimmer of information about the Gap*: Is what I put in above (when you exclude magic) accurate and feasible using technology and maths? Do I have any critical flaws that I've completely overlooked?
*I am. I personally think that Paizo should have pulled the trigger on revealing Aroden's death years ago. In my view it went from being "a big mystery" to becoming "a small footnote in Golarion history that doesn't even bother getting mentioned at the game table anymore". If I keep the Gap as mysterious as Aroden's death my player's will quickly get bored with the whole idea. Knowing Paizo's history, reasons for having the Gap and natural inclinations, I know they're not going to ever reveal any meaningful information about the Gap. So as a GM I get to invent it and make it available to my player's if they're clever enough to find it.
I think the only barrier is getting hold of sufficiently accurate equipment. I say if player can work out how to do this, let them have an answer and the in-game fifteen minutes of fame as it doesn't (presumably) break the adventure and it's a good story. Why invent a way to say 'no' when 'yes' is more fun?
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I see no problem with your reasoning John, and if you want to reveal info about the Gap in your campaign then that sounds like great story. I suppose the big question is what to tell the PCs in terms of a maximum length of the gap.
Using the meta-game reason for the Gap as a starting point the latest date it can start is early 4707AR (ie. just before the first AP and Gamemastery Modules set in Golarion). The end date is more tricky as, meta-game wise that needs to really be after the end of the last Pathfinder adventure set on Golarion which is, hopefully, a long way off in both real time and game time. Your call really but you could settle for anything from a few hundred (to allow technology to evolve) to a few thousand (to be on the safe side) years.
Would be good to hear what you settle on as I'm intrigued by this idea.
EDIT: This has also now got me thinking about whether there is a historical event on the Pathfinder timeline that could be the cause of the Gap. No ideas yet but interesting to think about. Of course, the cause of the Gap does not need to be on Golarion (although I think it's more fun if it is).
FURTHER EDIT: I'm also now thinking about when Golarion disappeared as it can't happen at the beginning of the gap as, meta-game wise, Golarion needs to be present into the Gap so that Pathfinder stories can still happen. At some point during the Gap, Golarion needs to disappear and be replaced by Absalom Station. Something else for PCs to figure out information on.
I suppose the big question is what to tell the PCs in terms of a maximum length of the gap.
Using the meta-game reason for the Gap as a starting point the latest date it can start is early 4707AR (ie. just before the first AP and Gamemastery Modules set in Golarion). The end date is more tricky as, meta-game wise that needs to really be after the end of the last Pathfinder adventure set on Golarion which is, hopefully, a long way off in both real time and game time. Your call really but you could settle for anything from a few hundred (to allow technology to evolve) to a few thousand (to be on the safe side) years.
I'm going to go a different route actually. At the end of most of our campaigns we have an epilogue where the GM tells us what happens to our characters in the next few years. Our epilogue for Iron Gods covered about 500 years (magically and technologically extended lifespans). So I will actually be going with it starting at 5518 AR (or thereabouts) to give room for our epilogues to occur after our Pathfinder games.
As for duration I'm potentially going to have the present day Starfinder be 7718 AR. This would be 2,000 years during the Gap. Due to how slow technology advances on Golarion I'm estimating that to get from the Rennaisance era to 2518 equivalent (which would take humans on Earth 1,168 years) would take Golarion 3,000 years.
As for what causes it, I'm not sure. But I certainly think elves would be involved and definitely time travel (because the time wraith Aeons are awesome).
[EDIT]: GOlarion definitely disappeared just before the Gap ended. Absalom Station was a lifeboat for the survivors.