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In general, if you qualify for two different faction goals in a scenario, do you think it's better to complete a goal that has only one box, or check off one box towards a goal with multiple boxes?
(Specifically, I have a Scarab Sages PC that can check off one of two boxes for the "explore an ancient site" goal, or can check the only "find a gem worth X" goal (both from season 9). Both seem situational (ancient site, finding a gem), but not terribly rare either.)

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It can be difficult to judge which are more or less likely, particularly if you're new to the campaign. Some are incredibly easy (rescuing a captive or slave on Liberties Edge), some are more difficult.
In my experience (and I have a few Scarab Sage characters), the jewel comes up less often than the ancient site, but that could just be the random nature of scenario selection.