Balancing a boss fight for level 2 characters

[Shorticus]

Specifically, level 2 characters with 500 gp worth of items each. Automatic Bonus Progression is in, but they won't enjoy it until level 3. Their stats are 20 point buy or higher (I let them roll with 20 PB as a minimum). Notably, they lack spellcasters, and this is something everyone is cool with.

Anyway, in the given fight they'll have already fought a battle or two in the same day. The previous fights will be CR 2 or lower. This fight will include the following:

1. A permanently Staggered Ogre with Inspire Courage.
2. 2-3 orcs
3. 2 wolves
4. However, they'll have NPC allies to help them with this fight - probably two Footsoldiers with longspears and javelins.

As I see it, the Staggered condition would reduce the ogre's CR by 1, and the Inspire Courage brings it back up by 1, so he remains CR 3, worth 800 XP. The wolves are 400 XP each, and the orcs are 135 XP each. Subtract the NPC allies from the orcs (each NPC ally is worth 135 XP) and we're getting 1600 XP or 1735 XP, roughly a CR 5 encounter - 3 levels above the party. Considering the Ogre is permanently staggered, I might just say there's three orcs and the fight is worth 1600 XP.

The tactics for the enemies are as planned:

Round 1 - Ogre plays Inspire Courage, and will maintain it on subsequent rounds. Orcs throw javelins. Wolves engage.
Round 2 - Orcs and ogre engage.

Does this sound fair? Note, this is meant to be a sort of 'boss' fight. I don't want this fight to be unwinnable. I DO want it to be a good end-of-session sort of challenge.

[Matthew Downie]

Remember that standard orcs are very tough for their CR, compared to other CR 1/3 creatures.

Also, the Ogre isn't much weaker for being staggered. If the party were trying to avoid it they'd find it easier, but if they get within its reach its damage output won't be any less (and will actually be higher than normal considering the Inspire Courage). It could defeat a level 2 PC with a single AoO.

It still sounds winnable with good tactics, although I don't know enough detail to be sure. (How many PCs? Do they have any form of healing if they're injured earlier in the day?)

[Shorticus]

4-5 PCs, depending on a few things. Given that nobody has magic, I've houseruled that the players don't die unless they hit 2x their constitution modifier.

As far as healing goes: they won't have potions or scrolls at this point; however, someone (either a PC or NPC) will have used Treat Deadly Wounds on everyone. They'll have an herb (well, berries) that grants them temporary hit points for 60 minutes as well, though not a bunch. It's a low magic setting.