Black tentacles does not directly target people, it indiscriminately attacks everyone in the area. Therefore the 50% targeting miss chance for blink does not apply. However, since a grapple check is considered an attack, the 50% miss chance for attack rolls likely still does.
What I want to know, is if a player character could use blink to escape a grapple once already grappled by the tentacles. I had a player attempt this, to which I said "no, that's beyond the power of the spell." The player then later tried to enter a vault by passing through the wall by casting blink. Again I said that, that was beyond the power of blink--that it was only combat spell that provided miss chance.
The player looked up the rules and proved me wrong on that point (a rare event), but I'm still left to wonder if you can slip out of the tentacles once grappled and, if so, how that should be adjudicated.
(In all my many years of roleplaying, I myself have never used blink, have never seen it used, and had at some point got it in my head that it was a rather overestimated spell that penalized you almost as much as your foes. Now that I've seen it in action, I am beginning to see why it is so popular.)
It seems like the miss chance would apply to the tentacles' maneuver check to maintain the grapple.
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Unless the tentacles or a grappling creature can hold onto a body while it's in the ethereal plane I would say blink would effectively make you immune to being grappled since it requires some sort of hold being mantained on the creature. I would say other combat maneuvers suffer from the same 50% miss chance though. A tentacle might grab onto a creature one moment to have it slip away the next while it is ethereal.
I guess my ultimate ruling would be roll the miss chance to determine if the character takes damage from the spell, but otherwise just treat the tentacles as difficult terrain for them.
It seems like the miss chance would apply to the tentacles' maneuver check to maintain the grapple.
This does seem like the simplest way to manage it, now that you mention it.
Black Tentacles is a conjuration spell. its not like constricting coils which is an enchantment that compels you to stay in place and take no action.
Black tentacles is a physical thing that is attacking you.
if it succeeds in the miss chance to grapple you you are being held by a physical restraint. but that physical restraint is no different than any other physical object that could restrain you.
If you were entombed in a 1' thick stone tomb, blink would allow you to phase right through the stone, there is no reason you couldn't do the same when phasing through the grappling tentacles.
However the blink spell has specific rules for this:
Just like when the character tries phasing through the wall, there is a 50% chance the character materializes while still in the occupied space. So when the character tries to escape the grapple have a them roll a d100 to see if they reappear while trying to pass through the tentacle.
if they do not materialize, then they escape successfully. if they do materialize - they will take 1d6 damage and get shunted to the nearest location where they can freely exist. in this case - there is another 50% chance that they end up inside the grapple once again and 50% chance they end up outside the grapple. so have them roll a second d100 and see if they end up free and clear.
Except when you are no longer on the same plane of existence that the spell is in.
If you cast plane shift while grappled, are you saying that you would still not be able to move once you had materialized on the other plane because Black tentacles said you cannot move unless you make an escape artist check or an opposed grapple check?
Black Tentacles does not affect things on the Ethereal plane so yes it could miss. Now if the miss chance was just to due to concealment from being invisible that would be different.
Physical attacks against you have a 50% miss chance.
It also makes you incorporeal, but personally I think that is a mistake on Paizo's part since being etheral and incorporeal are two different things. They just never bothered to fix the spell.
Black Tentacles does not affect Ethereal creatures.
I would rule a 50% miss chance on the initial grapple and a 50% chance to get free each round as the character attempts to pass through the tentacles.