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So we just finished the retaking of Fort Rannick in Hook Mountain Massacre. My group entered from behind the waterfall and secret passages, and came upon Lucrecia as soon as they entered through the basement. Kaven ran away while the group was distracted fighting Lucrecia, and they discovered his treachery, though they don't know exactly how far it goes.
They've since finished killing all the ogres and clearing the fort. Since there are no obvious clues to pursue as to the bad guys' plans, they're all assuming that hunting down Kaven is their top priority.
The book (anniversary edition) says that he'll try to rendevous with Lucrecia, but that's no longer an option. Where would he go at this point? Should I make it possible to track his movement once he left the fort, or would the heavy rain in the area wash away footprints?
The oracle of the group also took Divination as a known spell, so I'm assuming they'll find useful questions to ask and track him down one way or another. I'm just trying to figure out how that should play out.
Once they get back to Turtleback Ferry the flood event should probably happen, so their priorities will probably naturally change from Kaven to the dam, and that will lead them to Hook Mountain. So, there's not necessarily any reason you even need to involve Kaven any further; realistically speaking I think he would be trying to get the heck out of the area if Lucrecia is already dead. You could have the surviving Black Arrows and Shalelu (if she's along) volunteer to go after him if you think it's a distraction you don't want to pursue further; Kaven doesn't make for much of a fight by himself and the Arrows would have plenty of reason to want to go after him themselves.
If you do want to involve him further, it's not too much of a stretch to have the Hook Mountain ogres catch him and turn him over to their hag coven, he could end up as another frost wight or as some other object lesson in not teaming up with ogres.
A few random thoughts:
I think you're on the right track - you should support if not encourage their hunt for Kaven - it's a good way to keep the railroad feel out of your campaign.
Tracking him should be difficult but not for a ranger - is there one in your pc group? If a 8th or 9th level ranger can't track this guy, what sense is there in being a ranger? If there are any surviving Black Arrows or Shalelu is there, they might serve in this role as well.
They don't have any other clues? Does that mean they missed the love notes in the commander's quarters? Those should hint at a trip to Whitewillow.
As for where he's gone, I think that varies based on what he knows about Lucretia. If he knows she's dead, he most likely would flee the region entirely. If he thinks she may have survived, he would try to rendezvous with her, though it he was at the fight with her long enough to see her transform into a Lamia, that might make him reconsider.
I like Ian Bell's idea of a frost wight. If he did show up at the clanhold without Lucretia, Barl would most likely have him killed. He'd only be tolerated there if he was Lucretia's pet. I suspect, though, that he wouldn't go there if he didn't believe Lucretia would be there already.
Crazy idea: what if while fleeing Fort Rannick he ran into Yap, who knowing no better recruits him to talk to Myriana? He has no intention of actually helping but thinks he can exploit the pixie to guide him through the Shimmerglens (a place he probably wouldn't tackle on his own.) The pc's can track him to Whitewillow, finding him lost in the haunted wilderness perhaps afflicted by some of the effects described in the AP. Or he's cowering in Myriana's presence, awed or terrified by her ruined beauty. Or she's slain him outright seeing him for what he is and his role in her and Lamatar's fate. And he's risen as a spectre and now haunts Whitewillow.
Hunting down and killing Kaven is a revenge story.
Kevan betrayed the Black Aarows and did bad things to even end up at Fort Rannick in the first place. I had wanted to make a connection (as part of one of my pre-campaign scenes) with one of my PCs and Kevan to make that whole situation more interesting, but a better story came up.
As revenge stories goes, its not a great one for the PCs.
There's no personal connection, for the PCs. Really it's someone else's revenge story. The Black Arrows, Myriana even Shalalu.
I really think that Ian Bell's idea of tracking him to Turtleback Ferry, where the flood event happens and then the dam become the new focus.
Having The Black Arrows/Myriana/Shalalu handle the situation off screen works fine. You can always "save" Kevan up for another time.
From Kevan's POV, if he can't find/doesn't want to hook back up with Lucrecia, I suspect that getting out of the area is high on the list. Sandpoint sounds like a nice quiet town with NO OGRES in the area.
Heck for my campaign, that could well be the hook, as my players are considering opening up a casino themselves in Sandpoint.