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Hi
We're running through Stolen Lands at the moment and the players have spent approx 30 days exploring the Green Belt purposely avoiding the Thorn River Bandit Camp (this was due to missing a player for each of the first three sessions)
So I'm looking for suggestions for what the bandits would have done in this time to prepare. None of the original bandits sent to the trading post returned and the book states they know something is wrong after 5 days.
Well, we're well past that now. I assume they would have sent a message south to the Stag Lord, and I'm imagining he would likely send a response (when he's not drunk).
My current plan is for a more fortified camp and work out how long it would take for reinforcements from the Stag Fort to arrive. I did roll bandits on the wandering monsters and the players failed their perception checks - I decided the bandits would just watch the players for now and report back.
So, does anyone have any other suggestions of how to spice up the bandit fight?

RobRendell |

I think Thorn River camp would have sent some bandits to the trading post to check up on what happened to Happs and co. after a week or so. Assuming they disguised themselves as trappers and went in to ask around, they'll know about the band of adventurers that killed Happs and is now roaming the lands. Even if they just scoped Oleg's out from the outside they'd see there are now men-at-arms guarding the place.
At the very least, Kressel will have fortified her camp, as you say. If your PCs have levelled up in the mean time, that's probably a good thing for balance reasons as well as story reasons. If she knows specific information about the PCs, there might be further counters... caltrops and scattered rock (rough terrain) if they have a mounted warrior or barbarian who likes to charge, standing orders for her bandits not to clump up if they have a bomb-throwing alchemist, some extra thunderstones to throw at spell casters etc.
You'll also need to decide whether Kressel has been a good little lieutenant and passed all this intelligence on to the Stag Lord's fort, or whether she's going to try to solve her mess herself. If she has reported to the fort, they may have sent her extra bandits... perhaps consider making one of these reinforcements Falgrim Sneeg as a way to increase the reward for taking on the tougher Thorn River camp without having to just increase the loot there. It's also entirely possible that one of the other lieutenants (Dovan, Akiros or Auchs) could have been politically maneuvered out of the fort and is now cooling their heels at Thorn River camp, although that won't please either Kressel or whoever is no longer near the centre of power and relative comfort of the fort.
Kressel can't afford to wait in her camp indefinitely... she has to get loot and booze that the Stag Lord expects in regular shipments, and the PCs have cut off her easy source of these. She's going to have to organise raids hitting harder into southern Brevoy to meet her obligations because she can't get at Oleg's, which might cause the Swordlords to send unhappy messages to the PCs about them stirring up a hornets' nest and then not dealing with the hornets. These raids means that the bandits might occasionally abandon the Thorn River camp and take all hands with them up north, so the PCs might have a chance to encounter the camp completely empty and lootless - the bandits should approach home with caution when returning, of course.
There's also the possibility that the bandits might ally themselves with other factions in the Greenbelt that the PCs have annoyed. If there are any intelligent creatures the PCs have fought but which escaped (either from random wandering encounters or from the fixed encounters, particularly the Mites and Tartuk), they might temporarily work with the bandits to revenge themselves on the PCs. There is a thread about something like this happening in pennywit's game where the Mites and Kobolds besieged Oleg's trading post that might be of interest. Staging an ambush against the PCs while they're out in the wilds is also going to be tempting for them, especially if they can arrange to attack when the PCs are heading back to Oleg's low on supplies. Perhaps the bandits that are currently spying on the PCs have orders to assess how beaten up and vulnerable the group is, and rush back to organise the ambush if they see it's a good opportunity.
I hope some of those thoughts are useful to you. Let us know what you do!

Spatula |

When the Thorn River camp doesn't get attacked, the bandits scout out Oleg's and see that it's now guarded. They call in reinforcements, and then burn Oleg's to the ground when the PCs aren't around. Oleg, at the very least, dies. Kressle's racket with Oleg was profitable, but when you rule by fear you can't let someone kill your underlings and walk away from it.

pennywit |
RobRendell's got a few good ideas. Here are a few more
If the players aren't actively going after the bandits, I think a couple things could happen in your campaign.
If I recall correctly Kressle is of average intelligence and slightly above-average wisdom, so she's not exactly a tactical genius. But I do think she's smart and/or desperate enough to recognize that she's in a situation, and she needs a victory. And she's been at the bandit game for a while. She also knows the Northern
As RobRendell (thanks for the shout-out!) pointed out above, Kressle's not going to maintain her standing among the bandits if she lets some upstart adventurers kill her chief subordinate (and her lover). She has to strike back at the adventurers (and at Oleg), and she has to strike back hard. She needs to punish Oleg for defying Haps, and she needs to punish the players for slaying Haps.
So, keeping in mind her averageness, here's what I think she's been up to:
Gather forces. A lot of bandits roam the Northern Greenbelt, and Kressle ought to call on them. I could see her pulling together a force of around 15-20 ordinary bandits along with a replacement Haps (probably a low-level ranger or rogue) and a specialist (read: arcane or divine spellcaster).
Gather intelligence. You're right that the bandits would watch the players, and watch them closely. They've probably got an eye on Oleg's as well.
Build alliances. If players have ticked off any of the Greenbelt factions, particularly Tartuk or Grabbles, they might join forces with her. Heck, if the players made an alliance, Sootscale would probably backstab them if he got a better offer.
To mirror this, feel free to drop some clues to your players that something's going on. Perhaps bandit attacks are down. Or fewer bandits have been seen. Random trappers and such can furnish information. In the alternative, perhaps bandit attacks are up, as Kressle has concluded that outside of Oleg's the adventurers are a paper tiger.
And here's what I think she's going to do:
Ambush the players. The next time the players go out to explore the Greenbelt, the bandits should track them. (Allow Survival and Perception rolls as appropriate). These ambushes should not even remotely be fair. The bandits know where the dangerous stuff is -- shambling mounts, giant spiders, and marauding attorneys. If your players are getting used to the fifteen-minute workday, the bandits could strike while your players are recovering from a tough battle.
The bandits could also use wandering encounters to their advantage. Did you roll a herd of elk as an encounter? The bandits are driving the elk through the players' campsite. Is that a troll? The bandits told the troll that the players insulted his mother. Is that a trapper? The bandits are holding his wife hostage while he leads the players into a trap (or into a wild-goose chase).
Additionally, these raids can be aimed not at killing the PCs, but at making life hard for them. The bandits could steal the players' horses (or free them). Perhaps a small group of bandits attacks, then another, sneakier bandit comes in and burns up the players' food supply.
Oh, and the bandits are going to run like hell instead of standing their ground. Chase cards can help you here. And for bonus points, perhaps while the players are exploring (a ways away from Oleg's), one of bandits, captured, tells the players there's a little assault under way ...
Ambush Oleg's. I think the bandits would most likely strike while the players are away and their only opponents are Kesten Garess and his soldiers. Kressle's pretty average and she's a bandit, not a siege tactician, so her tactics will probably be built on ambush.
She would probably strike via some kind of Trojan Horse gambit where some of her bandits hide inside a trader's wagon, then fight the fort's occupants from within. She'd likely have Kesten, Jhod, and any soldiers killed, but leave Oleg alive, but perhaps missing some fingers. She doesn't want him dead. She wants him generating income. As motivation, she may also take Svetlana or Oleg as a hostage to compel the other's obedience.
To resolve how this ambush goes (while the players are away), I think you ought to total up something similar to a Loyalty check. The DC ought to be around 20 or 25, I think, and the bonuses ought to be equal to the Charisma bonus of the party's leader, plus bonuses for side quests they've accomplished. If the check succeeds by five or more, then Oleg's repulses the bandits' ambush with no casualties. If the check succeeds by four or less, then the ambush is repulsed, but a named PC (perhaps Kesten, Jhod, or Svetlana) was killed in the attack. If the check fails, then the bandits slew one named PC, plus a couple of Kesten's soldiers, and they made off with a lot of Oleg's stock (reduce his available stock and purchase capacity to 500 gold). If the check fails by 5 or more, then all of Kesten's soldiers are dead, a named PC died, the fort is damaged (holes in the wall, shattered gate, etc.), and Oleg's stock is reduced to 0.
I think that in general, the Stag Lord's lieutenants are going to get bolder with some of their raids. In addition to the Northern Greenbelt, they're going to intercept more shipments coming from Mivon. Any trade on the rivers will be completely stymied. Also, the Stag Lord's lieutenants will start charging ever more ludicrous rents for fishers, trappers, and hunters.
(Sidebar: I've thought it would be amusing and/or horrifying if the Stag Lord thought of himself as a king of sorts, and he dubbed all of his lieutenants "knights." Auchs would completely beleive he's a knight, Dovan would play along, and Akiros would be disgusted. Then, all of the lieutenants would travel around the land "collecting taxes" to preserve the "Stag's Peace." Staggy's completely nuts. Have fun with it, I say).
Additionally, I think the officers are going to get bolder. Instead of hanging out at the keep, they're going to gallivant around the Greenbelt doing more banditry. After all, nobody's stopping them ....
The Swordlords gave your players a charter to stop bandits and to explore the Greenbelt. If the bandits aren't being stopped, then the Swordlords are going to be cranky. I think that at the very least, a representative will show up the next time the players are at Oleg's and tell them to get a move on. Or the Swordlords might yank the players' charter for not going after the bandits. Or they might hire a second adventuring party. There are a lot of possibilities here.
My players hatted up and went after Kressle immediately, then decided to leave Staggy's fortress until they were higher level. When it reached a point where they had been ignoring his fortress for a while, I upped the ante a little bit. Dovan ambushed them with a group of bandits (Dovan lost and escaped, his bandits not so much), and one Craster Feksyev, the most hated NPC in my game, showed up to deride the players for not going after Staggy.
Hope this helps.

tonyz |

If Haps doesn't come back, Kressle is going to wonder why. I can certainly see her scouting out Oleg's and gathering more bandits to spdo something about it. I don't see her telling Staggy anything until she's at least tried to do something herself. Reporting failure makes you look bad to the boss, and weak in front of your underlings.
That gives you a couple of weeks.
Then Staggy gets involved. Maybe he sends one of his lieutenants to back up Kressle or investigate. But I don't see him waiting more than a month or so before doing something.

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Thanks for the advice. I decided to go for a sneak attack on the Trading Post in the end. A couple of infiltrator bandits disguised as hunters scoped out the place. After the players had gone to sleep, these bandits killed the guards and let a horde of bandits in, led by Kressle and Falgrim (who I added in based on suggestions above)
The initial sneak attack took down the team cleric, and the witch and ranger went down shortly afterwards (unconscious but not dead). The fighter and barbarian were able to fend off the rest of the bandits, forcing Kressle to flee back to the bandit camp.
The players walked into a second ambush at the camp but they focused attacks on Kressle, and the other bandits ran when she died.
So, hopefully things will get back on track now.
Thanks to everyone who chipped in with ideas.