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Background: First time playing D&D, also first time DMing. My party consists of a Barbarian, Druid, Monk, Rogue, and Sorcerer so its pretty stacked in terms of power.
So this evening we were starting our third session at thistletop. The party chose to invade at night, so I had to make some adjustments to NPC behavior. They left off at the watchtower with the goblins playing cards. They saw the goblin dogs in the exercise yard from the roof of the watchtower and were determined to avoid them. They make a beeline for Ripnuggets throne room completely by accident. The barbarian kills stickfoot on the first round in 1 swing so I only got the chance to do one spirited charge. The monk stuns the warchanter early on as well so the goblins did not fare very well from that point on.
Eventually the party makes it down to Bruthazmus getting busy with some goblin wives after a slight detour to murder goblin babies. They crowd the doorway so he cant escape, and the barbarian proceeds to rip him a new one. Smooth sailing so far and I am starting to wonder if they are going to make Thistletop look like a joke in the end. The next stop is the chapel of Lamashtu via the prison. Round 1, every single one of them fails their will saves and through some hilarious rolls they are basically panicking for 6+ rounds a piece. The fleeing party makes its way all the way back to the rope bridge where they curse this horrible place and cut the rope bridge from the other side to trap the remaining bad guys on the island.
They returned a day later to find the goblins had repaired the bridge to its normal functioning state. Much discussion follows about what to do next and they finally decide to give it another shot. Upon making it to the fortress the goblins spring an ambush via ranged attacks from the watchtowers and the party retreats. I ended the session for the night here.
Their plan is to burn the bridge so it cannot be put back up, and use excavation spells to remove chunks of the cliff effectively lengthening the distance it would require a new bridge to span. They reason, "we killed Ripnugget, and most of the Thistletop tribe, we accomplished what we set out to do." So I wanted to ask the community for some advice going forward. By my count the only living goblins were the 6 in the barracks and the two pickle thieves, so 8 total. Bruthazmus and Ripnugget are dead, leaving only Nualia, Orik, and Lyre alive to lead the remaining goblins. Tsuto was hauled off to Magnimar for trial after being caught in the glassworks.
1. With the tribe weakened like this, will they simply wait for Malfeshnekor to be released? How long would that take?
2. Would Nualia reach out to other tribes to bolster her forces and mount a retaliation attack on Sandpoint? Even if she did, how can they get off the island if the party sabotages the bridge?
3. They frequently talk about getting the assistance of the people Hemlock and his allies he summoned from Magnimar on his recent trip there. How do I allow them to get this help without breaking the encounters in their favor while at the same time not making it look like the rest of the world is incompetent?
4. What other options do the remaining baddies have for getting off the island? The expeditious excavation idea is ingenious I have to admit, and was stunned when the druid proposed the idea. I don't think they could rebuild the bridge if the party does this. They are also talking about starving them out and picking off anyone who tries to leave and get food.
5. How can I encourage them to go back in at this point when all these ideas they have seem so much better than risking their lives?
If I were Nualia, I would counter-attack the players. She can easily throw together a raft and lower it down the far side of the island with ropes. She cares nothing at all for the goblins, and will happily use them as cannon fodder. With Lyrai's spells she can easily launch the boat down the coast at night. Then she puts in at a beach and circles back to Thistletop intending to ambush the players and trap them against the cliff. With 8 goblin fodder, Orik, Lyrie, Nualia, and three Yeth hounds (she won't leave the temple guards behind - the players have already proved how dangerous they are), the party is in for one hell of a fight. Smart PCs will hopefully spot the ambush (goblins aren't great at discipline) and retreat. They can try a fighting retreat and might be able to thin the goblins out, but Orik's and Nualia's bows and Lyrie's spells, not to mention divebombing Yeth Hounds are likely to make that a losing proposition.
If they retreat to Sandpoint, or if they have already abandoned Thistletop assuming "their job is done", Nualia will use her small force to make a revenge raid on Sandpoint but I don't see her fighting to the death, and Orik isn't suicidal either. Lyrie is likely to be pretty pissed since it's obvious by now that Tsuto isn't coming back. Feel free to add in a few more goblin "hunters" and "foragers" that Nualia picks up along the way so that the forces Hemlock got from Magnimar will be critical to holding off the assault and giving the players a chance to deal with the bad guys. The players are likely to REALLY hate the Yeth hounds by the time this is over and feel some satisfaction each time they kill one.
If Nualia survives (likely) see the section of the module for what she does next. Orik will probably abandon her cause at the first opportunity - the second Sandpoint raid is the last straw for him. If players encounter him in Magnimar during the Skinsaw Massacre, and don't immediately attack him, he could be a good source of information and clues about what Nualia is up to.
Seriously, the module gave them plenty of clues that Nualia is the real danger. If they don't pick up on that, hammer them.
BTW: Thistletop island is magically worked stone. Most excavation spells won't effect it. It was the head of a giant war-statue.
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Thanks for the ideas, I know they won't be able to survive long if all of Thistletop comes after them out in the wilderness. They are planning to excavate the side opposite Thistletop fortress, not the side with the fortress itself. Its a pretty damn good idea from my point of view, since I don't quite understand the logistics of rope bridge construction.
If they do wash their hands of the entire situation and head back to Sandpoint I will give them time to craft and do whatever for maybe 3-4 days before an attack on the city at night. I am wondering though, if its likely that Nualia would wait until she releases Malfeshnekor before sending her forces out again.
It's up to you how close she is to releasing Malfeshnekor, but I advise against it. With his abilities and intelligence, Malfy could easily take over any nearby Goblin tribe and turn them into a raging terror. Look at the Greater Barghest abilities designed just to buff Goblins. Then add his DR 10/Magic and most of the garrison won't even be able to touch him. With Nualia helping and controlling him (remember that her God sent her here, so she will have some way to control it) it will be a massacre.
It is bad enough to sick the whole crew on them without tossing in a Greater Barghest as well. Nualia is smart enough to know her cover is blown here and she doesn't have any more time. In her rage, I see her striking at the characters. If she kills them all, she might return to trying to release Malfy. Otherwise, she will retreat and try something else. She can always return with more help later; as far as she knows, Malfy aint going anywhere.
Take note of the specifics of the spells they plan to use to excavate the cliff. Especially the volume effected and whether it's earth or stone. Also keep in mind that they will have to excavate a huge semi-circle of cliff way back and all the way down to the water line to keep the goblins from being able to rebuild the bridge. At their level, that is likely to take many days worth of spells. And even then, nothing stops the goblins from building the bridge closer to the water with a lift to Thisletop. That's an even better defensive arrangement: Unless the characters can fly, they will have to climb the sides of the island to assault it.
If you point out that goblins climb fairly well and can easily swim across (if they wait until the Bunyip is out), the characters should conclude that the only way to "starve them out" is to lay siege. In that case, Nualia just might decide to let them protect her and redouble her efforts to release Malfy. She has plenty of supplies and the players won't be able to take her by surprise - they burned the bloody bridge! Malfy can levitate and use mass invisibilty and the Yeth hounds fly. She won't have any trouble mopping the floor with the "besiegers" once Malfy is out.
Ultimately it's your choice, but I see her wanting to kill the characters if she can and offer them to Lamashtu. Only if they make that too difficult (perhaps by stationing a small army with them on the cliff) AND make it obvious that they aren't planning an assault (by using their spells to excavate the cliff), will she work to release Malfy first. if that happens, make sure her inevitable assault with the Barghest and enhanced goblins, et al. concentrates of killing the innocent guardsmen that trusted them. Be sure to describe how their weapons don't even scratch the demon while it rips them to shreds. Let the players retreat when they know they're beaten, but let the screams of the people they let down with their cowerdice echo around them while they do.
Hmmm...Hunting down the Barghest before it can rally a new goblin tribe and slaying it could be a good side adventure. They will need to do something to repair their reputations in Sandpoint after a debacle like that. You may chose to have Nualia head down to magnimar for supplies (or whatever) while Malfy scrounges up an army - giving the characters a brief window to take him out.