Gulf oil Spill Model for the next 360 days


Off-Topic Discussions

The Exchange

Time to build those Sea Walls from Florida, to Cuba, to the Yuchatan and drain the Gulf of Mexico.

North America has 360 days before the Gulf of Mexico is Lost for Good and the Atlantic Fisheries are heavily contaminated.


Great vid. I wish I had that simulation software, so I could run my own models.

And I have to say, some of the keyboard warriors posting comments are priceless:

"The oil cannot be stopped because it is not OIL! It is similar to the black liquid on the X-Files only it is real and the Raccoon people created aeons ago but now their society is dead and its technology is coming back to haunt us and the only solution is Art Bell armed with a +5 vorpal sword and an infinite bag of holding."

followed by-

"Eventually it will make it's way to the U.K. . . . was that the plan all along British Petroleum?"

The Exchange

The Raccoon people made me do it...

Sea creatures discovered in the Alantic...now facing extinction due to Oil Spread


yellowdingo wrote:

The Raccoon people made me do it...

Sea creatures discovered in the Alantic...now facing extinction due to Oil Spread

Crickey! Is that thing from Earth?


yellowdingo wrote:

Time to build those Sea Walls from Florida, to Cuba, to the Yuchatan and drain the Gulf of Mexico.

North America has 360 days before the Gulf of Mexico is Lost for Good and the Atlantic Fisheries are heavily contaminated.

Maybe I missed it. Does the model assume uncontrolled discharge from the well head, and if so at what rate of discharge?


Tensor wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:

The Raccoon people made me do it...

Sea creatures discovered in the Alantic...now facing extinction due to Oil Spread

Crickey! Is that thing from Earth?

More from Steven:

Steven Purcell wrote:
Bizarre and beautiful creatures of the ocean depths


Bitter Thorn wrote:
Maybe I missed it. Does the model assume uncontrolled discharge from the well head, and if so at what rate of discharge?

At best, this simulation is a cartoon. But it is still one of the better simulation runs I have seen.

From the article:

"Eight million buoyant particles were released continuously from April 20 to September 17, 2010, at the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. ..."

"The dispersal of the particles does not capture such effects as oil coagulation, formation of tar balls, chemical and microbial degradation. Computed surface concentrations relative to the actual spill may therefore be overestimated."

"The animation, thus, is not a detailed, specific prediction, but rather a scenario that could help guide research and mitigation efforts."


Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
Maybe I missed it. Does the model assume uncontrolled discharge from the well head, and if so at what rate of discharge?

At best, this simulation is a cartoon. But it is still one of the better simulation runs I have seen.

From the article:

"Eight million buoyant particles were released continuously from April 20 to September 17, 2010, at the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. ..."

"The dispersal of the particles does not capture such effects as oil coagulation, formation of tar balls, chemical and microbial degradation. Computed surface concentrations relative to the actual spill may therefore be overestimated."

"The animation, thus, is not a detailed, specific prediction, but rather a scenario that could help guide research and mitigation efforts."

I caught that part. I was just wondering if the model assumes a fixed value of eight million particles or if the model factors in continued discharge as some rate.


Tensor wrote:


[i]"The oil cannot be stopped because it is not OIL! It is similar to the black liquid on the X-Files only it is real and the Raccoon people

There are some prime nutjobs out there.

Raccoon people.

Everyone should have realised by now that it is the aboleths. They thought about an Earthfall, but thought about something new this time.


Bitter Thorn wrote:
I caught that part. I was just wondering if the model assumes a fixed value of eight million particles or if the model factors in continued discharge as some rate.

I'm going to have to assume the discharge rate is uniform through out the time period April 10 - Sep 17. Which works out to 37 particles per minute.

The next question I have is how many particles does it take before one *pixel* in the video gets filled in? Or, I guess I'm asking, how many particles per pixel are we looking at?


Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
I caught that part. I was just wondering if the model assumes a fixed value of eight million particles or if the model factors in continued discharge as some rate.

I'm going to have to assume the discharge rate is uniform through out the time period April 10 - Sep 17. Which works out to 37 particles per minute.

The next question I have is how many particles does it take before one *pixel* in the video gets filled in? Or, I guess I'm asking, how many particles per pixel are we looking at?

You've got me stumped.

I tend to be deeply skeptical of many models like this especially without knowing the underlying assumptions, data input and how it's weighted.

Of course I have no doubt that this is an epic disaster that will impact a huge region for decades.


Someone is going to have to contact the >Manoa's School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology<, and get a copy of their technical report on this matter.

>Official Press Release<

* Tara Hicks Johnson, Outreach Specialist
* 2525 Correa Rd, HIG 135, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
* Tel: (808) 956-3151 • Fax: (808) 956-9987
* Email: hickst@hawaii.edu

RPG Superstar 2011 Top 4

Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
I caught that part. I was just wondering if the model assumes a fixed value of eight million particles or if the model factors in continued discharge as some rate.

I'm going to have to assume the discharge rate is uniform through out the time period April 10 - Sep 17. Which works out to 37 particles per minute.

The next question I have is how many particles does it take before one *pixel* in the video gets filled in? Or, I guess I'm asking, how many particles per pixel are we looking at?

They said if the oil was dispersed for 150 days.


Scipion del Ferro wrote:
Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
I caught that part. I was just wondering if the model assumes a fixed value of eight million particles or if the model factors in continued discharge as some rate.

I'm going to have to assume the discharge rate is uniform through out the time period April 10 - Sep 17. Which works out to 37 particles per minute.

The next question I have is how many particles does it take before one *pixel* in the video gets filled in? Or, I guess I'm asking, how many particles per pixel are we looking at?

They said if the oil was dispersed for 150 days.

Dohp! I see it now. Thanks, I feel a little silly now.

"Eight million buoyant particles were released continuously from April 20 to September 17, 2010, at the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig."

They specify buoyant too, and I wonder what a "particle" means in this model.

The Exchange

I emailed the whitehouse recommending seawall construction begin within fifty days to avoid contamination of Atlantic Fisheries.

Most likely wont happen but I cant say I didnt offer my advice...even if you guys are a foreign state.


yellowdingo wrote:
I emailed the whitehouse recommending seawall construction begin within fifty days to avoid contamination of Atlantic Fisheries.

Where would you build this sea wall? (use google maps)

The Exchange

Florida to Cuba


No way. You have to do better than that son.

Look at >THIS<

The Exchange

Tensor wrote:

No way. You have to do better than that son.

Look at >THIS<

Thats failed policy thinking... You need to build a Seawall from Florida to Cuba. Then a second a sea wall From Cuba to the Yuchatan. Then Drain the Gulf of Mexico. It may take a century to fix the damage but it can be fixed - the plan here and now is to prevent contamination of the Atlantic Fisheries - The Gulf is Gone.

THis is how it gets fixed. Got a Problem with that?


yellowdingo wrote:
Tensor wrote:

No way. You have to do better than that son.

Look at >THIS<

Thats failed policy thinking... You need to build a Seawall from Florida to Cuba. Then a second a sea wall From Cuba to the Yuchatan. Then Drain the Gulf of Mexico. It may take a century to fix the damage but it can be fixed - the plan here and now is to prevent contamination of the Atlantic Fisheries - The Gulf is Gone.

THis is how it gets fixed. Got a Problem with that?

Yes, two:

One- You still have not made a pic for me to look at.

The Exchange

Tensor wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:
Tensor wrote:

No way. You have to do better than that son.

Look at >THIS<

Thats failed policy thinking... You need to build a Seawall from Florida to Cuba. Then a second a sea wall From Cuba to the Yuchatan. Then Drain the Gulf of Mexico. It may take a century to fix the damage but it can be fixed - the plan here and now is to prevent contamination of the Atlantic Fisheries - The Gulf is Gone.

THis is how it gets fixed. Got a Problem with that?

Yes, two:

One- You still have not made a pic for me to look at.

Firstly...you dont need artwork. YOu have three options.

Option 1: You can build a sea wall directly south from the Florida Coast in line with Homestead...but that leaves the florida Keys and the Evergladed exposed to the Oil. - That is the Shortest and Straightest Sea Wall and will keep your costs down.

Option 2: Build a Straight sea wall down from Naples thus keeping the Everglades and the Keys outside the Gulf contamination zone. This is going to be twice as much as Option 1.

Option 3: You make use of the Causeway out along the Keys from which you dump the rock and gravel in the tera-tons and build your sea wall curving out as far as you can go along the Keys and then build a wall directly south to Havana. This is further than option 1 but not as much as option 2 - yet it may be more efficient that option 2 and 1.

Draw your own maps.

The Exchange

PS The Explosion was caused by the Discovery of the Higgs Bosun which is expanding forward and backward through time from origin. YOu must therefor assume the Spill has always existed...

The Exchange

yellowdingo wrote:
Tensor wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:
Tensor wrote:

No way. You have to do better than that son.

Look at >THIS<

Thats failed policy thinking... You need to build a Seawall from Florida to Cuba. Then a second a sea wall From Cuba to the Yuchatan. Then Drain the Gulf of Mexico. It may take a century to fix the damage but it can be fixed - the plan here and now is to prevent contamination of the Atlantic Fisheries - The Gulf is Gone.

THis is how it gets fixed. Got a Problem with that?

Yes, two:

One- You still have not made a pic for me to look at.

Firstly...you dont need artwork. YOu have three options.

Option 1: You can build a sea wall directly south from the Florida Coast in line with Homestead...but that leaves the florida Keys and the Evergladed exposed to the Oil. - That is the Shortest and Straightest Sea Wall and will keep your costs down.

Option 2: Build a Straight sea wall down from Naples thus keeping the Everglades and the Keys outside the Gulf contamination zone. This is going to be twice as much as Option 1.

Option 3: You make use of the Causeway out along the Keys from which you dump the rock and gravel in the tera-tons and build your sea wall curving out as far as you can go along the Keys and then build a wall directly south to Havana. This is further than option 1 but not as much as option 2 - yet it may be more efficient that option 2 and 1.

Draw your own maps.

OK Here are maps.


yellowdingo wrote:
PS The Explosion was caused by the Discovery of the Higgs Bosun which is expanding forward and backward through time from origin. YOu must therefor assume the Spill has always existed...

You're behind on your physics. You need to read Tegmark's stuff.

http://web.mit.edu/physics/people/faculty/tegmark_max.html

Edit: this is more fun http://space.mit.edu/home/tegmark/crazy.html


yellowdingo wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:
Tensor wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:
Tensor wrote:

No way. You have to do better than that son.

Look at >THIS<

Thats failed policy thinking... You need to build a Seawall from Florida to Cuba. Then a second a sea wall From Cuba to the Yuchatan. Then Drain the Gulf of Mexico. It may take a century to fix the damage but it can be fixed - the plan here and now is to prevent contamination of the Atlantic Fisheries - The Gulf is Gone.

THis is how it gets fixed. Got a Problem with that?

Yes, two:

One- You still have not made a pic for me to look at.

Firstly...you dont need artwork. YOu have three options.

Option 1: You can build a sea wall directly south from the Florida Coast in line with Homestead...but that leaves the florida Keys and the Evergladed exposed to the Oil. - That is the Shortest and Straightest Sea Wall and will keep your costs down.

Option 2: Build a Straight sea wall down from Naples thus keeping the Everglades and the Keys outside the Gulf contamination zone. This is going to be twice as much as Option 1.

Option 3: You make use of the Causeway out along the Keys from which you dump the rock and gravel in the tera-tons and build your sea wall curving out as far as you can go along the Keys and then build a wall directly south to Havana. This is further than option 1 but not as much as option 2 - yet it may be more efficient that option 2 and 1.

Draw your own maps.

OK Here are maps.

Two - you linked to wotc. (what's up with that?)

The Exchange

Tensor wrote:

Two - you linked to wotc. (what's up with that?)

Me put pictures of maps on WOTC - It is a good Image store for my stuff. I expect Google maps will hunt me down and do bad things to me with an Atlas burned to DVD.

The Exchange

I like maps.


Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.

I sense boredom. ;)

The Exchange

Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.
I sense boredom. ;)

We do need someone who can draw maps in the iso (3-D look) over in the Cleaves Megadungeon thread based on the descriptions of our 100 random rooms...

The Exchange

yellowdingo wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.
I sense boredom. ;)
We do need someone who can draw maps in the iso (3-D look) over in the Cleaves Megadungeon thread based on the descriptions of our 100 random rooms...

I have been talking to someone for that very purpose.

The Exchange

Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.
I sense boredom. ;)

Lack of sleep. 10 hours shifts, spending way too much money on things other then what we should be.

I like maps.


Crimson Jester wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.
I sense boredom. ;)

Lack of sleep. 10 hours shifts, spending way too much money on things other then what we should be.

I like maps.

I hope it gets better.

The Exchange

Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.
I sense boredom. ;)

Lack of sleep. 10 hours shifts, spending way too much money on things other then what we should be.

I like maps.

I hope it gets better.

I just need to get finances in order. Damn this sucks. I am making enough it is just everyone and their cousin wants it NOW.


Crimson Jester wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
I like maps.
I sense boredom. ;)

Lack of sleep. 10 hours shifts, spending way too much money on things other then what we should be.

I like maps.

I hope it gets better.
I just need to get finances in order. Damn this sucks. I am making enough it is just everyone and their cousin wants it NOW.

I hear you on the money front.



Giant Underwater Plume Confirmed—Gulf Oil Not Degrading
Bacteria aren't gobbling up Deepwater Horizon oil, study says.


Bitter Thorn wrote:

Giant Underwater Plume Confirmed—Gulf Oil Not Degrading
Bacteria aren't gobbling up Deepwater Horizon oil, study says.

My neighbor says there was no Gulf Oil Spill. It was all a plot by democrats to attack the oil companies -- I mean have you ever seen an oil spill?

The Exchange

Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:

Giant Underwater Plume Confirmed—Gulf Oil Not Degrading
Bacteria aren't gobbling up Deepwater Horizon oil, study says.

My neighbor says there was no Gulf Oil Spill. It was all a plot by democrats to attack the oil companies -- I mean have you ever seen an oil spill?

How much medication is he/she on?


Crimson Jester wrote:
Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:

Giant Underwater Plume Confirmed—Gulf Oil Not Degrading
Bacteria aren't gobbling up Deepwater Horizon oil, study says.

My neighbor says there was no Gulf Oil Spill. It was all a plot by democrats to attack the oil companies -- I mean have you ever seen an oil spill?

How much medication is he/she on?

She is 67, and sits in her house watching fox news all day. Her fervor for that news channel is known in my community. Sometimes when I walk to get my mail we meet each other on the path and walk together and chat.

The Exchange

Tensor wrote:
Crimson Jester wrote:
Tensor wrote:
Bitter Thorn wrote:

Giant Underwater Plume Confirmed—Gulf Oil Not Degrading
Bacteria aren't gobbling up Deepwater Horizon oil, study says.

My neighbor says there was no Gulf Oil Spill. It was all a plot by democrats to attack the oil companies -- I mean have you ever seen an oil spill?

How much medication is he/she on?

She is 67, and sits in her house watching fox news all day. Her fervor for that news channel is known in my community. Sometimes when I walk to get my mail we meet each other on the path and walk together and chat.

Explains oh so much.


Tensor wrote:
She is 67, and sits in her house watching fox news all day. Her fervor for that news channel is known in my community.

I travel around Texas a lot on business. Every hotel I've stayed in in this state (dozens of them) has the TV in the breakfast area permanently set on Fox News. There is one exception: a tiny Days Inn out in the middle of nowehere run by an Indian couple -- they leave the cartoons on for the kids.


Kirth Gersen wrote:
Tensor wrote:
She is 67, and sits in her house watching fox news all day. Her fervor for that news channel is known in my community.
I travel around Texas a lot on business. Every hotel I've stayed in in this state (dozens of them) has the TV in the breakfast area permanently set on Fox News. There is one exception: a tiny Days Inn out in the middle of nowehere run by an Indian couple -- they leave the cartoons on for the kids.

That explains so much.

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