Book one spoilers...
My table's party captured one of the monkey goblins, but were unable to communicate with them. After holding them captive for a bit, they decided to let them go, wait a few minutes, then follow them back to their tribe. They hope to see if the goblins were behind the fate of the colony, maybe see if they have captives. The problem, of course, is that this party of 1st level adventurers is really not up for roughly two dozen goblins with a barghest chief (Arghelnar, page 79).
What would you do?
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I'd probably let them do it.
Have them make stealth checks to see if the goblin notices, otherwise the goblin may call for help or lead them to a different location, which you can use to take them to whatever encounter you'd rather have them do.
If they manage to follow, give ample warning (hearing lots of goblin voices and such). Your players might decide the information is enough for now. They might also decide that they can pick a fight with 12 goblins at once or have some clever plan. Whatever they do, unless they die, it's not going to cause much trouble to the plot, so let them try. Maybe just have the Barghest be gone somewhere when they get there, since that would be far too dangerous (I actually removed him and replaced him with a higher-level goblin, since I just didn't like the idea of a barghest being on this island and just sitting there with the goblins while other powerful intelligent beings schemed all around). 12 goblins is already a lot for a level 1 party.
If you don't want the fight, you could also have the goblin stumble into some hazard or wandering monster, likely getting killed unless the PCs save them. Then, you'd get a chance to trigger an encounter and give the players a warning that some things on the island are very dangerous, and you would delay their finding the tribe. They might still just go looking for it, though.
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I'd probably let them do it. <snip>
Agreed, @JackieLane.
A couple of other thoughts:
1) If they wait a few minutes, the PCs will need to succeed at the appropriate survival checks to follow. I'd go with DC 16 to start (firm ground DC 15 + 1 for small creatures), and then at some point the goblins will naturally take to the trees requiring another check but now DC 21 or DC 26 depending on how you rule it). Chances are the PCs will lose the trail and you wont have to worry about a premature encounter with the barghest.
2) Once the PCs set off into the jungle after the goblins, casually drop the rules on them regarding not getting lost and the consequences of getting lost. That actually might deter them.
3) If they do succeed at tracking the gobs, there are several open areas in the jungle interior where you could have them spy Arghelnar and company from a safe distance. Hopefully, someone in the party will know what a barghest is and realize they are out of their league. If not, give them a knowledge (planes) check (DC 14+) to get enough info to give em a good scare.
4) In my campaign, the PCs learned of Arghelnar early (but through Anya's scouting activities in chapter 2 - she found the barghest's footprints) and that was more than enough for my metagaming players to steer clear. Arghelnar became a recurring threat and was finally dealt with in the middle of book 2 when the PCs were lvl 4.
5) Instilling a healthy fear of the Ancorato jungle is such a fun part of this game. I ran a modified version of this scene from the first episode of Lost during my group's first night on the island and it did the trick: Lost smoke monster's first appearance. I was initially going to use the smoke monster listed in the book 2 appendix, but ended up going a different route. Still - the scene was very effective at keeping the PCs from just running willy-nilly into the jungle.
BTW, @rogeurogue, I'll post my write-up on Ancorato's flora/fauna in the Lost Outpost GM section tonight. My entire write-up is not done yet, but that part is and it might be helpful - maybe - hopefully. :)