My players are just Beginning the 3rd adventure Book, Rivers Run Red. They are aware of the growing tension Between their sponsors in Brevoy and the official government in Issia. Their plan is to to fake a war with Brevoy, and have Brevoy call to Issia for reinforcements. Meanwhile, the PCs and their army will pretend to fight with the forces of Brevoy, until Issia arrives at which time they will actually Begin fighting and killing Issian soldiers.
I thought this was a clever and amusing idea. Of course, if the time comes, I'm not sure that Issia would actually send any troops, rather letting Brevoy and the potential "invader" kill each other, until Both were weaking enough for Issia to come in and "mop up".
Has anyone else had the players come up with plans of conquest into Brevoy or Issia? Just curious.
Thanks.
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My two cents, which may or may have relevance to how the OP is running his game:
You might be able to fake a siege for a very short period of time, like less than a day, but I can't see how you could possibly fake a war or even a skirmish. You might be able to evacuate some villages and burn then to the ground, but anyone with half a brain will notice the lack of dead bodies.
All that aside, there technically is no Issia and Rostland anymore, its all Brevoy, even without Choral, at least by canon. Obviously you can do anything you like politically in your game :)
It is not really clearly stated in Kingmaker, but the Swordlords in the south, mainly in Restov are hiring the party to form a colony in The Stolen Lands. So the faction opposing them would be Regent "King" Surtova and the Brevic Royal Armies. If they wanted to start a war with Brevoy and the King, the easiest way for them to do that would be to claim some hexes that belong to Brevoy, like those north of Oleg's. If your politics follow along with canon, he would be likely to have to do something to protect his position, since he is only a Regent technically and not a king. Any weakness would be an invitation for the other lords like challenge his regency.
In the scenario you describe in the game we are running, King Surtova would probably try to annex/bully some land or resources away from the Swordlords who were being threatened, taking advantage of the fact they were already fighting a "war". If your players really want to go to war with Brevoy, especially this early, I suggest you come up with some ways they can "paralyze" Brevoy from slaughtering them and annexing their kingdom. Because Brevoy's forces are way larger than theirs are at this point in the game. If they are able to arrange things politically or storywise to keep Surtova from moving south, then they do have a little free reign to engage their "enemy". My players are trying to figure a way to do this very thing, but their goal is to kill an enemy lord in Brevoy that is causing trouble for them, then return back to their kingdom. Something like this you might be able to get away with at this point in kingdom building, but even then, Surtova is very likely to remember this as a serious offense he will want payback for later.
However it seems your party's goal is to get the armies to move south so they can fight them, which is somewhat akin to a chipmunk deliberately trying to pick a fight with a bear.
Now after Book 5, they are probably capable of engaging Brevoy directly. If you let them do it before that, you risk them conquering part of Brevoy far more easily than they should. Problem is, they could be in trouble if they start a war with Brevoy and then start Book 6 :P....
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Here you go
To the OP: Notice that even here, the player's kingdom is on the defensive, trying to protect their kingdom from Brevoy, not attempting an invasion.
If you really want to give them a chance to fight Brevoy forces, have an obnoxious lord travel south to visit their kingdom and the start ordering them around, telling them they are not following Brevic policy and they have to make all sorts of changes or else. Just give him enough bodyguards so they can't kill him. When they ignore him or kick him out, have him come back with an army to force them to do his will. Cue war music, and the party gets the fight with Issian forces they desire.
Whether or not the lord is acting on direct orders from Surtova or just being a jerk all on his own is up to you :)
It appears the OP is suggesting that the PCs are already engaged in backroom politics with the Swordlords (aka Rostland) in order to draw Surtova's forces out...
The Plan as I see it...
PC Kingdom picks a fight with Rostland (Restov). This is secretly a fake war, but Restov turns around and requests aid from Surtova, maybe with the Lord Mayor offering his support for Surtova's Kingship if the Regent comes down and crushes these upstarts (now mind you, these upstarts are not just a threat to Restov, if Surtova looks weak then some of the other Houses may move against him).
Surtova responds in force and the Swordlord allies turn on them in the thick of things. Probably getting an assassination attempt against the Lord Regent if he came himself or at the last grinding his army (thus power base) into dust.
Now a few things could happen with this plan...
Surtova uses it to put political pressure on Restov by annexing "hexes" that would traditionally be handled by Restov/Rostland. All the while Surtova is using diplomacy against the other Houses to keep them on his side or in the middle at the very least. He would probably cite the fact that Restov is the cause of this conflict (they sponsored the nation).
Or
He does respond to them. The Plan is a success... Surtova is dead or his armies broken. This opens up a ton of political opportunity in Brevoy. Lord Orlovsky is almost certain to make a move against Surtova now. Restov may take advantage of the weakened state of Issian to declare their independence becoming Rostland once again. Surtova's sister is likely to become involved by extension get her uncle involved and the remaining forces of Surtova will likely come to New Stetven. Civil War is assured.
I'd suggest giving the players and idea of just how powerful Brevoy is. Then, if they persist in picking a fight, let them get crushed. Once defeated, impose penalties. Tribute, council positions going to Surtova family members, providing a military force that is always used as cannon fodder, etc. This will let the players stay in control and show them how dangerous, but vulnerable, their enemies are. Issia can defeat the rebel armies anytime they want, but occupying the land is riskier. Better to just leave the defeated nobles in place and exact tribute.
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As noted, Issia is not a separate country but rather the regional north portion of Brevoy. I'm not sure there's anything the party could do to antagonize Brevoy by book 3 since there's no way they can afford the BP cost of an army much less raise one large enough to even get Brevoy's attention. Marching any forces across the border would prompt a response from all houses, and it should be the end of the players who'd become bandits themselves.
The Swordlords can't really help because they aren't even of a major house and don't have standing armies, just finances and some influence. They're a throwback to the glory days before Choral came in and smashed them on the battlefield, creating what would become Brevoy.
The party just isn't a "big dog" yet, but there's other ways they can get into the political game. For example:
In my campaign, we began with an event in which the Swordlords tried to marry into the Orlovsky House, and during the wedding the groom was assassinated. It set the stage for future politics.
Varnhold became a big political piece that could have ignited civil war between the major houses. King Surtova contracted his bastard cousin to marry Varnhold's daughter, the heir to Varnhold, and Maegar had to agree because his finances were in dire straits thanks to fighting centaurs. When our party liberated Varnhold, they realized the political ramifications. If the Surtovan bastard marries the heiress, he'll of course have to send a large garrison of troops to manage the region, subdue threats, protect his wife from centaurs. This would put an army on the backdoor of Restov, the swordlords, the hotbed of opposition to the Surtovan succession. It would also legitimately expand the power of the Surtovan line.
Those houses opposed to Surtova would be left with the undesireable option to let an army entrench and at will be able to strangle trade to Restov if the region revolts. They would be forced to rouse armies of their own to protect Restov by taking Varnhold. In doing so, it would spark civil war between the houses supporting the Surtovan line of succession and those opposed, including the Swordlords who have much influence in the south. Caught in the middle would be the hapless kingdom of the players with its resources, which would be "borrowed" by either side to feed and fund the war. Thanks to some expert talk and forged documents, our party invalidated the marriage.