What are the odds?


Off-Topic Discussions

The Exchange

I was playing Axis and Allies with some buddies over the weekend and I had an amazing defense roll that I need to figure out the odds for. My math is weak in these areas so if someone could do the math I would appreciate it.

I had 13 defenders that needed 1 or 2 to hit. The first 6d6 was 5 1's and 2's. The second 6d6 was all 1's. Really. The other players were hysterical! and the last roll was a miss.
First of all I would love know what the chances are of having 11 out of 13 dice rolled ending up as a 1 or 2 would be.
Second I really would like to know the odds of rolling 6d6 and getting all 1's.

I would love to put stats to the story that will live amongst my group forever.

Thanks.

RPG Superstar 2012

Fake Healer wrote:

I was playing Axis and Allies with some buddies over the weekend and I had an amazing defense roll that I need to figure out the odds for. My math is weak in these areas so if someone could do the math I would appreciate it.

I had 13 defenders that needed 1 or 2 to hit. The first 6d6 was 5 1's and 2's. The second 6d6 was all 1's. Really. The other players were hysterical! and the last roll was a miss.
First of all I would love know what the chances are of having 11 out of 13 dice rolled ending up as a 1 or 2 would be.
Second I really would like to know the odds of rolling 6d6 and getting all 1's.

I would love to put stats to the story that will live amongst my group forever.

Thanks.

I can answer the second case more readily: To get all ones on 6d6 is 1 out of 46656 (6^6), which is about a 0.002% chance.

Edit:
The first case is easier to achieve, but still highly improbable: To get 11 1's or 2's is 1 out of 177147. Since you have 13 dice and you have to get at least 11 of those dice to be 1's or 2's, you can get 92 different combinations (78 with exactly 11, 13 with exactly 12, and 1 with all 13 dice). This gives you about a 0.052% chance.

The Exchange

taig wrote:
Fake Healer wrote:

I was playing Axis and Allies with some buddies over the weekend and I had an amazing defense roll that I need to figure out the odds for. My math is weak in these areas so if someone could do the math I would appreciate it.

I had 13 defenders that needed 1 or 2 to hit. The first 6d6 was 5 1's and 2's. The second 6d6 was all 1's. Really. The other players were hysterical! and the last roll was a miss.
First of all I would love know what the chances are of having 11 out of 13 dice rolled ending up as a 1 or 2 would be.
Second I really would like to know the odds of rolling 6d6 and getting all 1's.

I would love to put stats to the story that will live amongst my group forever.

Thanks.

I can answer the second case more readily: To get all ones on 6d6 is 1 out of 46656 (6^6), which is about a 0.002% chance.

Edit:
The first case is easier to achieve, but still highly improbable: To get 11 1's or 2's is 1 out of 177147. Since you have 13 dice and you have to get at least 11 of those dice to be 1's or 2's, you can get 92 different combinations (78 with exactly 11, 13 with exactly 12, and 1 with all 13 dice). This gives you about a 0.052% chance.

Cool thanks for the stats!

Paizo Employee Chief Technical Officer

Never tell me the odds!

The Exchange RPG Superstar 2010 Top 32

Can't you handle the odds?

Community / Forums / Gamer Life / Off-Topic Discussions / What are the odds? All Messageboards

Want to post a reply? Sign in.