Bell Curve rolls in Savage Tide


Savage Tide Adventure Path

Scarab Sages

So, I will finally be able to get my Savage Tide adventures started and am considering using the 3d6 bell curve variant from Unearthed Arcana. I want critical fumbles and successes to be more rare but more exciting when they do happen. The characters will be gestalt, and I will be also using the Defense Bonus and Armor as Damage reduction as I think they will help with the tone of the story.

For those of you who have already ran the first adventures, what do you think? Any opinions and constructive criticism is appreciated.

Tam

Scarab Sages

I like the fact that the character's bonuses and stats will play a greater role than previously and that they are less likely to fall prey to a TPK due to a rash of really poor roles.

Tam

The Exchange

Personally, I find that using a bell curve system with saves and attack rolls further transforms D&D combat into a mere mathematical exercise, as any attack or save that requires a 9 or less to succeed becomes a near guarentee, it has been very viable when applied to skill checks in my own campaign.

Aside from Use Magic Device (still use a d20) I have applied the bell curve to all other skills and found it actually encourages skill use in and out of combat (especially Jump & Climb checks mid-battle) as the players appreciate the reliability of their characters' training.

Still, here's hoping it works out for you, both in and out of combat.


I'm doing something similar with the Age Of Worms campaign I'm running. I also found that changing from d20 to 3d6 made things a little too weighted towards the middle; we're using 2d10 instead, and it's worked out great as a middle ground, especially since it keeps +20 as the maximum roll. 2 becomes the auto-failure threshhold, and we've got a nice little crit equivalency table worked out. It's been pretty popular with the players so far. It might be feeding a bit into my newfound terror of warforged, of course - the 19 AC my adamantine-bodied fighter and cleric are sporting is even more intimidating to first and second level mooks when using 2d10. By contrast, with 3d6, it's be nigh-impossible to hit for a +1 BAB opponent.

Anyway, I fully endorse the bell curve, but I do suggest you try the 2d10 version instead.


I'm rather with Magagumo on this -- using 3d6 is not far from taking 10 on everything.

It'll dramatically reduce the frequency of the more spectacular successes and failures. While you want it for that reason, I prefer the added drama.

Either way, good luck with it.

Scarab Sages

Can anyone tell me the percentage breakdown of the individual possible results using both the 3d6 and 2d10 methods, or maybe point me in the direction of a sight that breaks them down?

Tam


Adventure Path Charter Subscriber; Pathfinder Rulebook, Starfinder Adventure Path, Starfinder Roleplaying Game, Starfinder Society Subscriber
Tambryn wrote:
Can anyone tell me the percentage breakdown of the individual possible results using both the 3d6 and 2d10 methods, or maybe point me in the direction of a sight that breaks them down?

If I remember correctly (I was a math/comp-sci major), the breakdown is detailed below.

d20: 5% chance for each number.

2d10:
2 - 1%
3 - 2%
4 - 3%
5 - 4%
6 - 5%
7 - 6%
8 - 7%
9 - 8%
10 - 9%
11 - 10%
12 - 9%
13 - 8%
14 - 7%
15 - 6%
16 - 5%
17 - 4%
18 - 3%
19 - 2%
20 - 1%

3d6 (rounded):
3 - 0.46% (1 in 216)
4 - 1.39% (3 in 216)
5 - 2.78% (6 in 216)
6 - 4.63% (10 in 216)
7 - 6.94% (15 in 216)
8 - 9.72% (21 in 216)
9 - 11.57% (25 in 216)
10 - 12.5% (27 in 216)
11 - 12.5% (27 in 216)
12 - 11.57% (25 in 216)
13 - 9.72% (21 in 216)
14 - 6.94% (15 in 216)
15 - 4.63% (10 in 216)
16 - 2.78% (6 in 216)
17 - 1.39% (3 in 216)
18 - 0.46% (1 in 216)

Liberty's Edge

Dragonchess Player wrote:

3d6 (rounded):

3 - 0.46% (1 in 216)
4 - 1.39% (3 in 216)
5 - 2.78% (6 in 216)
6 - 4.63% (10 in 216)
7 - 6.94% (15 in 216)
8 - 9.72% (21 in 216)
9 - 11.57% (25 in 216)
10 - 12.5% (27 in 216)
11 - 12.5% (27 in 216)
12 - 11.57% (25 in 216)
13 - 9.72% (21 in 216)
14 - 6.94% (15 in 216)
15 - 4.63% (10 in 216)
16 - 2.78% (6 in 216)
17 - 1.39% (3 in 216)
18 - 0.46% (1 in 216)

Off hand, could you let me in on the math involved in determining that?


Azzy wrote:
Off hand, could you let me in on the math involved in determining that?

It's permutations. It sucks. =)

Quick not-really-a-summary: in the 3d6 case, each die can roll one of 6 choices, for 6x6x6=216 possible rolls. For each combination of numbers adding to your total, you determine the number of permutations resulting in that sum - for 15, there is 1 permutation of 555, 6 of 654, 3 of 663. Hence a 10 in 216 chance of rolling a 15. Repeat this process for each of the numbers, put salve on your scalp where you've been pulling your hair out, et voila!

I gloss this over only so I can move on to presenting my own table, which compares the probablilities of hitting certain target numbers (the probablility of rolling at least an 18, rather than the probability of rolling exactly an 18). Apologies in advance for the nasty text formatting:

# | d20 ||| 2d10 | 3d6
01 |100%| ---- | ----
02 | 95% |100%| ----
03 | 90% | 99% |100%
04 | 85% | 97% | 99.5%
05 | 80% | 94% | 98.1%
06 | 75% | 90% | 95.4%
07 | 70% | 85% | 90.7%
08 | 65% | 79% | 83.8%
09 | 60% | 72% | 74.1%
10 | 55% | 64% | 62.5%
11 | 50% | 55% | 50.0%
12 | 45% | 45% | 37.5%
13 | 40% | 36% | 25.9%
14 | 35% | 28% | 16.2%
15 | 30% | 21% | 9.26%
16 | 25% | 15% | 4.63%
17 | 20% | 10% | 1.85%
18 | 15% | 06% | 0.46%
19 | 10% | 03% | ----
20 | 05% | 01% | ----

Some things to note:
[list]

  • It's about 30 times easier to hit an 18 with d20 than it is with 3d6. By contrast, it's only 2 1/2 times easier to hit an 18 with a d20 than with 2d10, and 5 times easier to hit a 20.
  • With 3d6, just over 2/3 of all rolls will be between 8 and 13. With 2d10, a bit over 2/3 of all rolls fall between 7 and 15.
  • The average 2d10 roll is slightly higher than the average d20 roll (11 vs. 10.5). We find this is somewhat compensated for by the reduced chance of hitting a natural 20.

    Anyway. Hope this helps, and is more probablilty factoids than you ever needed or wanted.

  • Liberty's Edge

    Thank you!!! It'll take a while to parse through (not currently in the mood for that--I'm such a slacker), but it is something that I'm interested in. :)

    Grand Lodge

    I use a different system...one that I brought over from my 1st and 2nd edition days. I use a D6/D10 system. The D10 is rolled to generate a number between 1-10, of course, but the D6 is used to determine whether the D10 is either 1-10 or 11-20. It goes like this ........

    D6/D10

    1/1 = 1
    1/2 = 2
    1/3 = 3
    1/4 = 4
    1/5 = 5
    1/6 = 6
    1/7 = 7
    1/8 = 8
    1/9 = 9
    1/0 = 10

    the same is so for the 2 and the 3 on the D6. As for 4,5 and 6 on the D6 it moves to the high range:

    4/1 = 11
    4/2 = 12
    4/3 = 13
    4/4 = 14
    4/5 = 15
    4/6 = 16
    4/7 = 17
    4/8 = 18
    4/9 = 19
    4/0 = 20

    5 and 6 also create a number between 11 and 20.

    Here is where I customize it.

    Special Rolls:
    1/1 = miss / critical failure (D4 rounds of inaction - nasty)
    2/1 = miss / critical failure (1 round of inaction)
    3/1 = miss

    I only make my players suffer bad form, where they have to spend time to recover from a critical failure.

    4/0 = automatic hit / normal critical chance
    5/0 = automatic hit / automatic critical
    6/0 = automatic hit / automatic critical + 1 additional damage dice for this hit (per the weapon type) + Initiative for the next round (we roll initiative every round, not every encounter)

    If I have the formula correct there are a total of 60 possible combinations using this system. Which breaks down to a 5% chance to generate any single number between 1 and 20, three combinations for each (same as the D20 system), but to roll any one of the special rolls listed above there is only 1 combination and that equates to a 1.67% chance.

    Just wanted to share...I am sure some of you have used this D6/D10 system before, but this is my slant on it.


    Scorba wrote:

    I use a different system...one that I brought over from my 1st and 2nd edition days. I use a D6/D10 system. The D10 is rolled to generate a number between 1-10, of course, but the D6 is used to determine whether the D10 is either 1-10 or 11-20. It goes like this ........

    D6/D10

    1/1 = 1
    1/2 = 2
    1/3 = 3
    1/4 = 4
    1/5 = 5
    1/6 = 6
    1/7 = 7
    1/8 = 8
    1/9 = 9
    1/0 = 10

    the same is so for the 2 and the 3 on the D6. As for 4,5 and 6 on the D6 it moves to the high range:

    4/1 = 11
    4/2 = 12
    4/3 = 13
    4/4 = 14
    4/5 = 15
    4/6 = 16
    4/7 = 17
    4/8 = 18
    4/9 = 19
    4/0 = 20

    5 and 6 also create a number between 11 and 20.

    Just wanted to share...I am sure some of you have used this D6/D10 system before, but this is my slant on it.

    A friend of mine uses this system and I am wondering if using the smaller dice decreases the variances of his rolls over using a d20. Does anyone know the answer to this?


    Anthony Morgan wrote:
    A friend of mine uses this system and I am wondering if using the smaller dice decreases the variances of his rolls over using a d20. Does anyone know the answer to this?

    No, the odds of rolling any particlar number are 3 in 60 ( = 1 in 20 ), exactly the same as rolling on a single d20. The only benefit gained from the above is the ability to use finer grained results as Scorba described doing with his crit results.

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