You're forgetting the refugees.
Regardless of what choices you've made, you have at least a handful of people to assist you. Even if the Smithy is the 1st place you go after the inciting event, you'll be packing 5 refugees at least.
The AP specifically states that these refugees are to be viewed as helpful tools for the PCs to use when they need to. I think this is a perfect opportunity for that!
Also, the door can be broken. In the game I'm running for my family, the monk broke the door on his first attempt. I know that's not super easy (DC 20 for standard door) but it's easier than 25.
But I really think they intended for you to make use of the refugees if you don't have magic to assist (Create Water).
grandpoobah wrote:
Concern on Encounter B1 & B2 (the burning Smithy).
The math on this one seems flawed:
The PCs have 7 rounds to fight three hobgoblins and either put out the fire or open the door and get the people out.
Putting out the fire seems impossible. On Round 1 it is in 1 square with a 50% chance each round to spread. It takes 12 gallons to put out (create water is 2 gallons per casting at level 1). The nearby water is four 3-gallon buckets, that probably take at least three move actions to use. So the fire will spread during the first 1-3 rounds as the PCs deal with the combat, and then be impossible to stop (it would take an entire 4-person party two rounds to put out one square, best-case).
The door is a DC 25 strength check. No one is opening that one on the first round. You need to have someone roll a Natural 18-20 with at least two assists, and you only have 2-3 rounds to try it.
Seems like everyone in this place is murdered by the math of the encounter and the action economy of pathfinder.
Unless I missed something...