Alika Epakena

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Stone Shape:
CASTING
Casting Time 1 standard action
Components V, S, M/DF (soft clay)
EFFECT
Range touch
Target stone or stone object touched, up to 10 cu. ft. + 1 cu. ft./level
Duration instantaneous
Saving Throw none; Spell Resistance no

DESCRIPTION

You can form an existing piece of stone into any shape that suits your purpose. While it's possible to make crude coffers, doors, and so forth with stone shape, fine detail isn't possible. There is a 30% chance that any shape including moving parts simply doesn't work.


Looking at the target line, how much stone is the bad guy standing on? If its more than 10+level cubic feet you can rule the spell fails (a problem casting in a natural cave then). If he's standing on cobblestones, the spell only affects one cobblestone. If you're in the middle of the woods he's not standing on stone so the spell can't be cast. Even if you're in a dungeon, there could still be a layer of dirt covering any paving stones, which would muck up the spell.

As to a save, I'd probably allow a reflex save not to be caught in the cage; just because the stone doesn't get a saving throw shouldn't mean the guy standing on top of it won't.


So, I made a quick spreadsheet, based off Egoish's formulas, with minor adjustments to make sure everything worked right at the high and low ends. (Making sure the confirmation roll is never more than a 95% chance and taking into account the fact you can't score a critical threat if you don't hit.) After a little playing about, I've come up with the following minimum damage bonuses for a falchion to be at least as good as a greatsword, damage wise.

Falchion at least as good as a greatsword when:
Chance to hit : with critical focus : without critical focus
0.95 : 19 : 19
0.90 : 18 : 19
0.85 : 17 : 19
0.80 : 16 : 19
0.75 : 15 : 19
0.70 : 15 : 19
0.65 : 15 : 19
0.60 : 14 : 19
0.55 : 14 : 19
0.50 : 14 : 19
0.45 : 13 : 19
0.40 : 13 : 19
0.35 : 12 : 19
0.30 : 11 : 19 <- the 30% to hit asked about in the OP
0.25 : 26 : 43
0.20 : Never : Never
0.15 : Never : Never
0.10 : Never : Never
0.05 : Never : Never
Turns out, even without critical focus the chance to hit is relevant if it overlaps the chance to score a threat. With critical focus, it's definitely relevant.
Math:
Greatsword
(7+x)*(0.3+(0.3+0.2)*0.2)=
(7+x)*(0.3+(0.5)*0.2)=
(7+x)*(0.3+0.1)=
(7+x)*0.4=
2.8+0.4x

Falchion
(5+x)*(0.3+(0.3+0.2)*0.3)=
(5+x)*(0.3+(0.5)*0.3)=
(5+x)*(0.3+0.15)=
(5+x)*0.45=
2.25+0.45x

Compare the two
2.8+0.4x=2.25+0.45x =>
0.05x=0.55 =>
x=11