So, I have the first pick overall in a 10 team league with this setup:
6 points for all TDs
1 point for each 50 yds passing, 1 pt/20 yds rush/rec
extra points for big games (+2 for 300 yds passing, 100 yds rec/rush)
Start: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 RB/WR
Keep three players each year.
So... do I draft Brady, Manning, LT or AP? And why?
And, yes, I'm aware that Fantasy sports is gaming for ex-jocks. Which is why I like to win.
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So, I have the first pick overall in a 10 team league with this setup:
6 points for all TDs
1 point for each 50 yds passing, 1 pt/20 yds rush/rec
extra points for big games (+2 for 300 yds passing, 100 yds rec/rush)Start: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 RB/WR
Keep three players each year.
So... do I draft Brady, Manning, LT or AP? And why?
And, yes, I'm aware that Fantasy sports is gaming for ex-jocks. Which is why I like to win.
Funny, most of the guys I play with are ex-Roleplayers who happen to love football.
I think you can make arguments to draft someone other than LT 1st, but you likely will regret it. This is the last year where probabilities suggest that LT should have run away dominance at his position. He averages over 1500 total yards/year, he is capable of catching 100 passes when the team needs him to (he did in 2003), and is a prodigious TD scorer, with multiple 4 TD games per season.
With 1pt/ 50 yards passing, Brady will not score you enough to be a #1 overall pick. Adrian Peterson has fantastic talent, but only one year under his belt. We don't know about his durability or if he can repeat his last year's performance. Now if he does, he may be next years #1 lock pick...
Manning shouldn't come in either for the same reason as Brady. plus, Indy has a balanced offense. All NE can do is throw which makes Brady the more attractive of the pair.
Take LT and as long as he is healthy, you won't regret it.
I think you can make arguments to draft someone other than LT 1st, but you likely will regret it. This is the last year where probabilities suggest that LT should have run away dominance at his position. He averages over 1500 total yards/year, he is capable of catching 100 passes when the team needs him to (he did in 2003), and is a prodigious TD scorer, with multiple 4 TD games per season.
If this is the last year for LT to have runaway dominance, since he's 29, does that increase the value of taking a QB like Manning, due to a QB's longer shelf life in a keeper league?
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If this is the last year for LT to have runaway dominance, since he's 29, does that increase the value of taking a QB like Manning, due to a QB's longer shelf life in a keeper league?
I think you can make arguments to draft someone other than LT 1st, but you likely will regret it. This is the last year where probabilities suggest that LT should have run away dominance at his position. He averages over 1500 total yards/year, he is capable of catching 100 passes when the team needs him to (he did in 2003), and is a prodigious TD scorer, with multiple 4 TD games per season.
Oh, I didn't realize that you could keep players from the 1st round. Many leagues don't allow that. Manning still wouldn't be your best choice. But under a keeper format, Brady and manning become more attractive. However, you really should narrow your decision to either LT or AP. I can guarantee you that whichever one you don't take will likely go with pick 2, or 3 on the outside.
Even if LT begins to slip, he will be a point machine for years to come - likely for the next 3-5 years barring injury. At this point, you'd be betting on LT's proven track record (but fear of declining ability) vs. AP's huge potential (with fear that last year was an anomaly).
Beyond that analysis, you'll likely have to trust your gut.
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So, I have the first pick overall in a 10 team league with this setup:
6 points for all TDs
1 point for each 50 yds passing, 1 pt/20 yds rush/rec
extra points for big games (+2 for 300 yds passing, 100 yds rec/rush)Start: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 RB/WR
Keep three players each year.
So... do I draft Brady, Manning, LT or AP? And why?
And, yes, I'm aware that Fantasy sports is gaming for ex-jocks. Which is why I like to win.
no d/st or kicker?
only pick brady if you KNOW you can get moss as well, the "6pts for all tds" would be brutal.
is it a snake draft or is the order the same for each round? if its a snake draft, don't pick a qb first, all the stud rbs will be gone, and too many teams are going with tandem backs this season. if you take a qb now, and have to wait until pick 20 & 21 for your next players, hello basement.
to put this in perspective, there wasn't much difference between brady and derek anderson (like, 6 points per game, average) last year. you can always pick up a decent qb in the second or third round, but the rb's are premium in any league...
Every team needs at least one Balrog.
Yeah, I heard he's really strong. But not as good as having Wulfgar as a tight end.
no d/st or kicker?only pick brady if you KNOW you can get moss as well, the "6pts for all tds" would be brutal.
is it a snake draft or is the order the same for each round? if its a snake draft, don't pick a qb first, all the stud rbs will be gone, and too many teams are going with tandem backs this season. if you take a qb now, and have to wait until pick 20 & 21 for your next players, hello basement.
to put this in perspective, there wasn't much difference between brady and derek anderson (like, 6 points per game, average) last year. you can always pick up a decent qb in the second or third round, but the rb's are premium in any league...
Snake draft, so I've the last pick in round two and the first pick in round three. There's slots for TE, K, and D/ST, but those aren't really a concern till the late rounds.
My opinion...with a 2QB start, the QBs become soooo much more important than in a normal league since there are only so many good QBs. I'd go Brady first.
CEO
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I would take LT. I had the #1 pick in our league last year and picked LT. Even though he had a subpar LT type of year, he still was the reason I won many weeks.
I am worried about AP and the sophmore slump. Also, Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit all have really decent defensive lines that are stiff against the run. Since that is 6 of the 16 games for the Vikings, that would give me a bit of pause. If it was a keeper league, I would go AP all the way. The kid has long term talent.
As much as I like Brady and Manning, I wouldn't pick either until the end of the 1st, after the top 4 or 5 backs are picked.
-Lisa
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Ooh, I hate those 2 QB leagues. They do make drafts much more interesting, though. The RB by committe trend in the NFL has really changed the fantasy landscape. Other than a couple of top RBs, most teams are playing two guys on a regular basis. This is no Mike Alstott TD vulture thing, this is widespread. I would say go RB if you have a chance to get one of those rare studs who carries the whole load, otherwise go QB and pick up one of the better #2 backs of these two-back systems later(like Norwood of the Falcons or Chris Johnson of the Titans). Just my two cents. Personally, I have more problems at WR every year than with any other position. Consistency is tough to come by at WR.