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Ok, I'm stuck in a rules question, and I can't decide on the answer. This is from a Rise of the Runelords campaign that's reached Fort Rannick. My players went up against the Ogre Fighters and one of my players has whips that he's used to disarm them. The Ogres then tried to punch him and we can't decide if their punches provoke attacks of opportunity or not, and if they do and he winds up tripping them, what then happens to their attack.

These are the relevant rules:

Unarmed Attacks:

Striking for damage with punches, kicks, and head butts is much like attacking with a melee weapon, except for the following:

Attacks of Opportunity:
Attacking unarmed provokes an attack of opportunity from the character you attack, provided she is armed. The attack of opportunity comes before your attack. An unarmed attack does not provoke attacks of opportunity from other foes, nor does it provoke an attack of opportunity from an unarmed foe. An unarmed character can’t take attacks of opportunity (but see “Armed” Unarmed Attacks, below).

“Armed” Unarmed Attacks:
Sometimes a character’s or creature’s unarmed attack counts as an armed attack. A monk, a character with the Improved Unarmed Strike feat, a spellcaster delivering a touch attack spell, and a creature with natural physical weapons all count as being armed (see natural attacks).

Natural Attacks: (relevant section)

Some fey, humanoids, monstrous humanoids, and outsiders do not possess natural attacks. These creatures can make unarmed strikes, but treat them as weapons for the purpose of determining attack bonuses, and they must use the two-weapon fighting rules when making attacks with both hands. See Table 3–1 for typical damage values for natural attacks by creature size.

Do the Ogre's fists count as "natural physical weapons" listed in the "Armed Unarmed Attacks" rule or not? I can make a case for both in this instance. I would count them as weapons to determine their attack bonus, and I would roll damage for them based off of the Natural Attacks by Size chart (I assume they fall under the "Other" listing), so for both attack and damage they count as natural physical weapons, but do they also count as such for attacks of opportunity?

Secondly, if they do provoke an AoO, and he then uses his whips and trips them, what happens to their attacks? The trip AoO would happen before the punch, so they would fall prone. Does that then stop their punch completely and they lose their action, or do they get to still try to punch him while prone (with the related penalty to attack roll)?

I've been GMing for a few years on and off in our group. We can't all get together very often, but we've been slowly working our way through Rise of the Runelords and are now in the Hook Mountain Massacre. One of my players recently had his monk get killed vs the Grauls (our only player death so far), and replaced him with a whip-wielding trip/disarm-focused fighter. Here are his stats at level 8:

Male Human Fighter 8

STR:24 (22 base, +2 with a Pale Blue Ioun Stone)
DEX:16 (14 base, +2 with a Belt of Incredible Dex)
CON:8
INT:13
WIS:7
CHA:7

BAB:8/3

FEATS:
Weapon Focus: Whip
Combat Reflexes
Whip Mastery
Combat Expertise
Improved Trip
Greater Trip
Improved Disarm
Greater Disarm
Fall's Fury

Gear:
+2 Whip
Chainmail
+1 Heavy Steel Shield
Amulet of Natural Armor +1
Locked Gauntlet

This is what he generally does: As a full-round action, trips with his first attack, then takes a disarm maneuver for his attack of opportunity. Then he trips a second enemy and takes a disarm maneuver for the attack of opportunity. He then keeps them tripped through opportunity attacks.

If my math is correct, his CMB for tripping (on his first attack) would be:
+8(BAB) +7(Str) +2(whip) +1(proficiency) +1(focus) +4(feats) +2(Fall's) = 25
Attacks of opportunity are taken at full BAB, so his disarm would be:
+8(BAB) +7(Str) +2(whip) +1(proficiency) +1(focus) +4(feats) = 23

His second trip would be at CMB 20, but his second disarm still at 23.

It's a hilarious build, but I'm running into the issue that it seems to be imbalancing combat considerably. The Ogres they are fighting now have CMD 18. He's only failing to trip/disarm them on a natural 1. The Ogre Fighters have CMD 26. He is only failing to trip them on a natural 1 and has an 85% chance to disarm them. Jaagrath has CMD 29. The fighter has a 80% to trip him and 70% chance to disarm him.

Combat is currently extremely one-sided thanks to this character. Basically, everything they fight winds up perma-proned and disarmed (at least until they get to Lucrecia). I don't mind if my group steamrolls the normal Ogres, but I want them to at least be a little challenged by combat. I've given the Ogre Fighters Improved Unarmed, so they can at least try to do some damage, but I feel like I need to do more. What else can I consider doing to make things more challenging going forward? Should I just add more ranged combatants, or more creatures that are resistant to trip? Since he's completely dumped Wis, should I throw in more casters who can take advantage of his low Will save? I don't want encounters to feel like they're designed just to counter this build. What would you all do in a similar situation?