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I've a party of 5 lvl 4 characters. Barbarian, Warpriest, Fighter, Wizard and Investigator. They're about to go up against a level 7 young adult black dragon (spell caster variant).

It's listed by experience as between moderate and severe for a party of their size but I'm concerned that it might just TPK them given it's to hit bonus, AC and various offensive abilities.

Have I given them too much to handle?

Hi all, was looking for some ideas/advice.

The setting is this: the intrepid party have the artefact of doom which they are meant to be getting to the Lord High Know It All for some advice on how to destroy it before it destroys the world.

Unfortunately they've been distracted by shiny things/troll slaying which has allowed the forces of evil to hunt them down. They've just defeated a determined band of mercenaries and now know that they are the quarry.

They are in the wilderness. There are numerous enemy groups in the area hunting for them.

I could play it as a survival check a la stealth/perception with the ranger's survival vs. the enemy's survival but I was hoping for something a little more dynamic/tactical and something that would give the group a sense of achievement when they slip from the enemy's desperate grasp.

Any and all ideas welcomed and worshiped.