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Aroden's Fate
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Yes, another forum post theorizing about Aroden's fate. However, with this post I intend to summarize existing theories before digging into my own theories based off of what Paizo themselves have said (as much as possible).

The most popular theories I've run across (in no particular order) are:

  • Aroden approached Pharasma to have himself killed in order to prevent Rovagug's eventual return.
  • Aroden isn't actually dead, and his whereabouts are unknown.
  • Tar-Barphoon is somehow responsible for Aroden's death in order to gain greater ascendancy.
  • Asmodeous, Norbringer, or some other god killed Aroden at an opportune moment for whatever reason.

I think some of these are getting close, but I have reason to believe that none of them address the whole picture. Paizo has stated that they will never reveal their version of what happened to Aroden because they want to leave it as a mystery for players to explore in their own campaigns. They've left little clues for readers to base their own theories off of, but I believe these clues also align with their untold "true" story regarding Aroden's fate. Some of these clues have portions of them that are meant to throw you off, but they're there all the same. Some clues I've found are:

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Aroden

Spoiler:
"No one knows for sure what happened to Aroden, or if he is truly alive or dead. He is presumed to be dead because his clerics no longer receive his spells, and because of the appearance of the Eye of Abendego and Worldwound. Countless theories exist about how he might have died, including a battle with Rovagug or Asmodeus, a journey beyond the Outer Sphere, or reincarnation into a mortal man to save humanity. The gods might know his true fate, particularly Pharasma, but if they do, they are not revealing it to mortals."

"When Aroden walked the world disguised, he took on one of twelve guises: artist, beggar, craftsman or artisan, farmer, fisherman, hunter, merchant, scholar, shepherd, soldier, tailor, and thief."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/The_History_and_Future_of_Humanity

Spoiler:
"Passages of this sacred text, along with numerous carvings depicting the twelve guises of Aroden, are carved into the Pilgrim's Cave, a large cavern in the foothills of the Kortos Mounts. The carvings are thought to be centuries old, yet still contain a faint echo of the dead god's power."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Pilgrim%27s_Cave

Spoiler:
"The chamber's walls are covered with numerous, detailed carvings depicting of the twelve guises of Aroden, along with inscriptions from his sacred text, The History and Future of Humanity. Even though the god is believed to be dead, these inscriptions still carry an echo of the deity's power, albeit a quickly fading one."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Starfall_Doctrine

Spoiler:
"The Starfall Doctrine is a series of prophecies written in Azlanti that predicted that the god Aroden would return to Golarion in 4606 AR and lead the human race in a millennium of prosperity known as the Age of Glory. He was supposed to lead the world from Cheliax, which he would personally rule and which would also become the pre-eminent nation in the world. When the appointed year came, instead of Aroden's appearance, his clerics lost all connection to the god, and he has been assumed dead ever since."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Hermitage

Spoiler:
"The Hermitage is a small, barren island just off the southern tip of Mediogalti Island. It is named after its only inhabitant, a mysterious old man known only as the Hermit. The Hermit lives in a small, ramshackle hut made of driftwood and is rumored to have some kind of connection with the Mayor of Ilizmagorti or the Eye of Abendego itself."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Hermit

Spoiler:
"The Hermit is a mysterious old man who lives alone on the Hermitage, a barren island off the southern tip of Mediogalti Island. His home is a crude hut constructed out of driftwood."

"Next to nothing is known about the Hermit, not even his name. He appears to be a deaf mute, and has been seen staring eastward into the storms generated by the Eye of Abendego."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Eye_of_Abendego

Spoiler:
"The Eye of Abendego is a vicious, permanent hurricane."

"The Eye appeared in 4606 AR ... Although the exact cause of its appearance is unknown, it came into being after three weeks of tempest following the death of Aroden, and remains as the greatest physical evidence of the event."

"Magical divinations focused on the center of the Eye (since navigating there is impossible due to the rough seas and high winds) have discovered a large eye of calm whose waters are choked with debris."

"A splinter cult of Gozreh known as the Storm Kindlers believed that the Eye was a manifestation of their deity, while the boggards of the Sodden Lands believe it is connected to their patron god, Rovagug."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Pharasma

Spoiler:
"Pharasma makes no decision on whether a death is just or not; she views all with a cold and uncaring attitude, and decides on which of the Outer Planes a soul will spend eternity. Pharasma is also the goddess of birth and prophecy: from the moment a creature is born, she sees what its ultimate fate will be, but reserves final judgement until that soul finally stands before her."

"The death of Aroden, the first of the ascended gods, at the end of the Age of Enthronement was extremely unexpected. His death was not prophesied, and once he died, most of the other prophecies in the world started to go awry as well. Many of Pharasma's priests have lost their faith or have gone mad as a result, but those who remain, are finding that Pharasma's hold over prophecy is becoming less important, while her domain over death, birth, and fate, are growing stronger. It is a time of change for Pharasma and her faith. Some legends say that Pharasma knew the death of Aroden was approaching, but chose not to tell her followers for reasons unknown."

"Echo of Lost Divinity: This minion is a spectral warrior bedecked in expensive Azlanti dress. It bears an uncanny similarity to known renderings of Aroden, and only appeared in Pharasma's service at the beginning of the Age of Lost Omens."

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Asmodeus

Spoiler:
(I just wanted to point out that Aroden doesn't pop up anywhere on this page, despite Asmodeus' interest in Cheliax and the fact that Aroden held significant influence over Cheliax up until the time of his death. I also find it curious that Aroden and Asmodeus bare unusual similarities to one another in that they're both on the frontier of exploring their own potential.

Other entities that share this sort of characteristic are Irori and Nethys, both of whom attained the status of deity... though neither utilized the Starstone like Aroden did. Being immortal, could Aroden have eventually attained divinity without the use of the Starstone?)

Now, here's where my theory comes in, but it needs a little bit of background behind my understanding of how Domains work. I consider Domains to be a fundamental aspect of reality, a universal law, an original law, something that just is. The more an entity (such as a deity) adheres to that law, the more power they will have in regards to that law. This is why multiple gods in Pathfinder are able to able to have the same domain. The domain doesn't originate with any particular deity, but a deity adhering to the domain is able to withdraw power from it. When a deity stops adhering to the guiding laws and principals of a domain, they are no longer able to withdraw power from it.

MY THEORY
For whatever reason, Pharasma saw fit to violate the domain of prophecy and take Aroden's divine life. As a result, Pharasma's access to the Prophecy Domain was forfeit (hence the chaos ensuing after Aroden's death). Aroden's divinity is now kept under guard as Pharasma's herald, "Echo of Lost Divinity". Aroden's mortal body now resides on Hermitage and is known today as the Hermit. His catastrophic separation from his own divinity left him deaf and mute, and is also perhaps forbidden to reveal his identity. He has been on the island for over 100 years (since 4606 AR when the Eye of Abendago, current year being 4718+ AR). The Eye of Abendago is only named as such because of the former name of the location it inhabits (Abendago Gulf), but the most correct name for the storm is actually "Eye of Aroden", a twisted manifestation of his holy symbol. The storms leading up to the creation of the eye may well have been side effect of the battle between Pharasma and Aroden until "he died" (or rather, his divinity was taken from him, so "Aroden the God" died, but not Aroden the "mortal").

BUT WHY WOULD PHARASMA KILL ARODEN?
That's the big question, isn't it? Aroden seems to be the embodiment of humanity's journey to exploring its fullest, unlimited potential (and in the context of a universe full of so many humanoids, all humanoids are included in this sense of "humanity" even if "humans" are perhaps the purest embodiment of "humanoid" characteristics). If Aroden was able to achieve divinity when such was not within his original potential (as such is typically understood among the Gods), what is preventing him from eventually obtaining something being divinity? Pharasma's got a good gig, and effectively has Groetus as a "reset button" if things ever get out of hand. Paizo developers have claimed that Pharasma is the most powerful among the gods, and not by a little... perhaps Aroden threatened her position of supremacy? Perhaps Pharasma keeps quiet about it because she knows that in her weakened state, she is could no longer win if the other gods ganged up on her (her connection with Prophecy clearly isn't what it used to be, even if she still maintains some degree of connection with it). Prophecy itself dictated a rise in Aroden's power and influence over Golarion (and who knows where that route would have continued into the eternities?), and Pharasma did not like it.

COULD ARODEN RETURN?
Uncertain, though there is room for a possibility. Honestly, I think it would be a wonderful marketing/PR opportunity for Paizo to reveal details surrounding Aroden as part of their Pathfinder 2e launch and accompany it with a new adventure path which involves the party of adventurers helping Aroden to reascend to divinity so that he and the other gods can put Pharasma in her place and seize fate for themselves.
Nonlethal Attack Penalty = Nonproficiency Attack Penalty?

All of the following give a -4 to your attack roll:
- Attacking with a weapon you are not proficient with.
- Attacking with an improvised weapon.
- Attempting to deal lethal damage with a nonlethal weapon.
- Attempting to deal nonlethal damage with a lethal weapon.

Are all of these actually referring to the same attack penalty, or do they all stack?

I'm interested in Paizo's official stance on the matter. What follows are my guesses.

http://paizo.com/pathfinderRPG/prd/ultimateEquipment/armsAndArmor/weapons.h tml
The page above suggests that a single "non-proficiency" penalty applies for any "weapon" (improvised or otherwise) in which you are not specifically trained in how to use as a weapon. Thus, using an "improvised exotic weapon" is impossible because the "weapon" in question cannot be both exotic and improvised at the same time, even if the improvised weapon is basing its damage (and special weapon properties, such as "monk", "reach", or "nonlethal") on an exotic weapon.

http://paizo.com/pathfinderRPG/prd/coreRulebook/combat.html#nonlethal-damag e-description
The page above suggests that using a lethal or nonlethal weapon (simple, martial, exotic, or improvised) imposes an untyped -4 penalty to your attack roll, even if you are proficient with the weapon. But it isn't clear if this is simply a failure to assign greater clarity to the description or if this was done intentionally.

One could argue that, "Even if you are proficient with a scimitar, attempting to use it as a non-lethal weapon transforms the weapon into an improvised weapon for that attack because there's no such thing as a "nonlethal scimitar" in the base list of Simple, Martial, and Exotic weapons. Thus, the -4 penalty to hit with nonlethal is considered a non-proficiency penalty because you're not proficient with "nonlethal scimitars". It's like a throwing weapon being treated as a light or one-handed melee weapon to attack with in melee, but transforming into a ranged weapon the moment you throw it (thus using different stats for attack and damage and qualifying for different feat bonuses etc based on how the weapon is used... even though it's the exact same item/weapon).

Personally, I think it would make a lot of sense to just have a universal -4 non-proficiency penalty for attempting to use any weapon in a manner in you are not trained in how to use it. But, I could see potential balancing issues with traits like Blade of Mercy (http://www.archivesofnethys.com/TraitDisplay.aspx?ItemName=Blade%20of%20Me rcy) which could effectively give you proficiency to deal non-lethal damage with all slashing weapons, even if you weren't proficient at dealing lethal damage with that same weapon.