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TL;DR Suggestions for an epic encounter
upgraded Nualia + Malfeshnekor + minions VS four level 3-4 PCs and some Sandpoint NPCs.
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My PCs have discovered that Nualia is still alive. I am going to start a countdown: if they don't stop her before time X, whatever ritual is needed gets completed, she releases Malfeshnekor (Lamashtu helps with that) and advances in her transformation into a demon. I am inclined for this to happen to get an epic end of chapter so perhaps no timer and I'll just fiat it.

I want evolved Nualia + Malfeshnekor + minions to be too hard a threat for the PCs to face alone, so that some NPCs will have to join in.
The plot would go like this: once Malfeshnekor is released and bound to Nualia the goblins near Sandpoint recognise Nualia as their god, maybe thinking she is an avatar of Lamashtu, and amass at her command. PCs or Sandpoint NPCs realise the situation, but it's already too late for a full on attack as too many goblins have gathered under her command. She is going to come to raid Sandpoint soon, so the only hope is to anticipate her and send in a small commando to eliminate the barghest and Nualia. With their god killed the goblins will surely scatter.

How do I build an interesting, (very) hard but not impossible encounter? This should play like an epic chapter finale. Death of multiple PCs and/or significant NPCs should be a very concrete possibility - the start of a new chapter is a good point to reroll a PC if needs be.

My players are not expert (neither am I, first time GMing) but two of them have some previous experience. I am thinking of having a minimum of one and a maximum of five NPCs join the fight as PC allies. That way each of us (at a maximum) can play an allied NPC in the fight. NPCs will probably be at a higher level than PCs and I am fine with that. Please help me build this encounter so that I don't completely mess up the balance.

Nualia side
upgraded Nualia (haven't decided how to upgrade her yet, and suggestions are very welcome, but perhaps half-fiend template)
Malfeshnekor (maybe upgraded to a greater barghest)
Whatever sensible minions you want to include (goblin chiefs, mercenaries, yeth hounds, whatever Lamashtu touched thing you like to come up with...)

PCs side
Four PCs (cleric, bard, sorcerer, fighter) at level 3, or possibly 4.
Minimum 1 maximum 5 NPCs, preferably among the named ones from Sandpoint. NPC which I think would volunteer to go include (statblocks for them are given in RoTR or the Sandpoint setting book) Belor Hemlock (fighter 4), Shalelu Andosana (fighter 2/ranger 4), Ameiko Kaijitsu (aristocrat1/bard 3/rogue 1), Cyrdak Drokkus (bard 6), Abstalar Zantus (cleric 4), Risa Magravi (sorcerer 4) but feel free to recommend others.

One of my PCs went to the Fatman's Feedsbag (the most disreputable tavern in Sandpoint) to listen for rumours. He got wind of the fact that the sczarni (criminal organisation) are trying to get their hands on the Pixie kitten (local brothel, but PCs still don't know about it), but Belor (sheriff of town) is making things hard.

I am pretty sure they did not understand much of the rumour, but I'd like it to have some consequences. Ideally, I would like one of the sczarni, maybe Jubrayl himself, to contact this PC and trick him into doing something which would help their plans. For example causing a scandal or obtaining some important information which could help the sczarni blackmail the bordel owner into accepting the sczarni "protection". However I am struggling to come up with concrete plot ideas, any suggestions?

The character (not player) in question is a fighter, a bit of a solitary (for a bunch of sessions decided to stay at the White Deer while the rest of the group was at the rusty dragon because he doesn't like too much company), pretty stubborn and not very sophisticated (Int 11, cha 10, wis 10 though), but alignment is good, so he would not help the sczarni willingly and has to be tricked into it. The group just got to second level after the glassworks thing.

The brothel owner is the (secretly but not really) fiancee of the town sheriff, which could lead to interesting developments. For example it could be funny if this PC helped the sczarni, while Belor asks the rest of the group to help with the situation. It could also be an occasion to involve Aliver Podiker, who they have not met yet (I'd like Aliver and the Sczarni to play some role in the campaign, however I do not want to go into red bishop or Kanker territory).

TL;DR brainstorming ideas to better integrate late unpleasantness and the catacombs of wrath in the first chapter.

There are a lot of things which I like about burnt offerings, but some which I would like to modify. The module gives a lot of background about the late unpleasantness period, which are very interesting and absolutely irrelevant for the campaign as written. Which is a shame. I feel that the catacombs/runewell should play a more important role in the present events, while currently they could be entirely skipped.

I am thinking of something like this:
First, after the festival PCs have to investigate to find what is the problem, getting to know about the late unpleasantness events. They should believe that the episodes of wrath are of importance for the current events. At some point they may need to deal with Tsuto to discover an entrance to the catacombs, or maybe they find the one hidden in the abbey. As a result they explore the catacombs of wrath.
Second, they focus on (Tsuto)/Nualia/Thistletop.
The two parts may partly overlap rather than being strictly sequential depending on how Tsuto's murder/kidnap plays out - here again I am thinking of inserting some more detective work rather than having a note delivered by the halfling servant: Ameiko has disappeared and they don't know what happened to her.

Here are my current ideas, but I am not completely happy about them.
Shortly after the festival there is another episode of people getting wrathful (possible including PCs). Of course the past events come to light and the PCs start investigating them. This should lead to a few things:
- PCs start to discover things about Nualia
- Maybe other discoveries/events related to Lonjiku and/or chopper island (please give me ideas!)
- Meanwhile, Tsuto's may or may not be doing his things. I find his action as written a bit too stupid so I am inclined for PCs to be able to discover Lonjiku's murder and maybe fight Tsuto/goblins in the glassworks, but at that point Ameiko has been already brought to Thistletop. However this may push the PCs to go straight away to Thistletop, which I don't want to happen.
- PCs explore the catacombs
- PC realise/start realising that something big is behind the activation of the minor runewell.
This new discharge from the minor runewell should coincide with some major advancement of Karzoug, but I am not sure what that could be, and it's a bit early for him to start antagonising the PCs...
- Finally, we go back to Nualia/Thistletop.

Other ideas are welcome. Also ideas about developments on chopper island, Lonjiku's murder of his wife, fun things to do with the minor runewell, and how to justify another runewell discharge would be great!

I am preparing to GM Rise of the Runelords. So far I have only read the first two chapters.
I like how some of the PC opponents have very strong motivations. For example the quasit does not care about Karzoug, but she is still happy to help Nualia so that she can create more sinspawns for her army.

Tsuto does not have strategic motivations, but he hates Lonjiku and is in love with Nualia and that works perfectly fine. He manages to get Lonjiku involved with the goblin attacks and can now blackmail him. Very good. But then he decides to have a rendezvous just to murder him? That's really stupid. He can manipulate one of the most powerful men in Sandpoint and decides to kill him instead of using him for Nualia's cause? So far Tsuto seems quite passional but not an idiot. While the AP unambiguously states that Tsuto has planned the murder in advance I feel that a rendezvous to further blackmail him which escalated makes more sense. Lonjiku wanting to kill Tsuto seems in character. Tsuto is there, the goblins are hidden and when Lonjiku attacks Tsuto and the goblin kill him and the workers. The idea of killing the workers just to frighten the population seems weak, but now that they have witnessed the murder they cannot be left alive, also there is no holding back excited goblins.

But now Tsuto sends a message to Ameiko to meet in the place where 9 people have been murdered that night???? Waiting in the place of crime for several hours just so that he can be caught and incriminated???? In fact he is still there the day after when the place should be open for business??? People will worry when the workers do not come back home, and start searching. And there is absolutely no reason to meet Ameiko at the glassworks. There is no reason to expect her to join once she knows that he has murdered 9 people, her father among them. And if Tsuto just wanted to kidnap her, most other places would have been much safer.

Have I misunderstood something? Has anyone changed up these events a bit? I think I will go with Tsuto having organised a night meeting (less people around) at the glassworks with both Ameiko and Lonjiku at the same place/time to put one against the other or something, and Bethana deliver the message to the PCs in the evening and not the morning after. Things go awry during the meeting, Lonjiku is killed and Ameiko captured. The workers who were sleeping at the glasswork also get killed since they woke up and are now witnesses. Since it is night Tsuto and the goblins have until sunrise to leave and it makes sense that they spend some time cruelly acting on Lonjiku's body. Not long afterwards the PCs arrive. What do you think? Curious to hear other ideas as well.