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"Nope. I'm telling you how it is." she says, very confidently. "Now, if you don't mind, I have a cake that needs to go into the oven."
With that she closes the door.
As the door closes, Dorian catches a whiff of a familiar smell... that of a forge. He then hears the "Clink!", "Clink!" of a smith's hammer striking metal on an anvil.
Making your way over to Braybon's Smithy, you see a muscular red-headed woman working a forge. The building and its immediate vicinity are covered in a haze of smoke.
There is far more smoke than should be here, so it is likely that she is putting green boughs onto the fire to create it.

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Toadlicker continues to plod along with the others, going from house to house, the new doll still grasped in his hand. He occasionally stares at it, gives it a shake, looks around, then shakes his head in disappointment before continuing to follow the group.
As they approach the smithy, Toadlicker wrinkles his nose at the smoke. "Smoke make bugs go away... why you do that? Tasty treat." His stomach agrees with his statement with an audible gurgle, and Toadlicker licks his lips loudly in response.
Sorry that I haven't been more helpful. TL's skills are few and far between.

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Dorian stands ready expecting Blood bugs at any second and glances into the smithy. What ya be craftin there lass? he left off the part about the green boughs since Toadlicker had already remarked. Smoke would keep the skeeters away.

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The woman looks up from her forge, and looks to Array. "Ain't it obvious? Keeps them damned skeeters away, it does!"
She then turns to Dorian, "Oh, you know, this and that. Right 'bout now I am workin' on some nails. Ain't excitin' work, but its gotta be done, doncha know.
"So, what kin I do fer ye'?"

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"We are looking for the Mosquito Witch, to try to determine why Shimmerford has become as it has," Arra repeats from before, hoping for more luck this time. "And a man in white looking for stagnant water. And a half-elf Hunter in gold armor, with strange rocks."

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Autumn eyes the green boughs thoughtfully as the blacksmith explains their use.
"It's as Arra said. Do you have any spare boughs we could take with us?" she asks. "They would be very helpful in our mission. We're Pathfinders," she adds with a grin.
Diplomacy: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (16) + 6 = 22

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"So, now that you mention it, I do recall seein' a half-elf in golden armor. She bought a compass from me a few weeks back, claimin' hers was busted. Now, mind you, I ain't never heard of no compass breakin' like that, but she was insistent. I asked her bit later if the new one worked, and she admitted the new one was busted too, but it was workin' when I sold it to her, so she didn't make no fuss."
Something external must have been interfering with the compasses, likely of a magnetic source.
"As for some boughs, why there ain't nuttin' special 'bout these. Jsut some shrubs I hacked down outside of town. I throw 'em on the fire in the evening to scare away the skeeters. Its the smoke, not the boughs."

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Survival: 1d20 + 4 ⇒ (4) + 4 = 8
Toadlicker just scoffs. "Goldie armor prob'ly too dumb. Where they go? We set straight."

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Crafting (untrained): 1d20 + 4 ⇒ (5) + 4 = 9 I'm also trained in Survival, if that matters, but it's 1 less.
"Indeed. Perhaps that can help us keep the mosquitoes away," Arra agrees. She shakes her head. She should have thought of something like that herself, but the bugs were never this insistent in the Stolen Lands, even when she had to skirt Hooktongue Slough.

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Survival: 1d20 + 5 ⇒ (5) + 5 = 10
"Maybe? Can't say I know." Zandu says. "I tell you though that my head feels like it's spinning like a broken compass. Just what is going on here?"
Just going to add that the player is also incredibly confused. I'm not good at solving mysteries, and this is clearly a mystery.

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"Rare ore? What do you mean?" asks the smith. "By the way, name's Luca, Luca Braybon. Didn't catch yours."

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"I am called Arra Vliegerzot. We are Pathfinder Society agents, here to help Shimmerford," she replies.
"The tanner said a half-elf in gold armor who called herself 'Hunter' brought in a strange rock, called magnetite," she explains, still trying to put the pieces together.
We know that there's something not natural, based on the repeating timeline of Mordha Lyons (not to mention our moving doll). That could be related to the mosquito witch -- per the gnome baker, she drinks tears and emotions, which could also explain the tanner's strange affect. But she's presumably been here for ages and while those may be an issue, I think she's typically not a major threat -- the village had no problem with her, to the point they sold these dolls and were a tourist attraction. Something clearly changed that has caused the mosquitoes and blood seekers to become a real threat.
We also know a hunter came by fifteen days, seven hours ago (maybe eight at this point), with a strange magnetic stone. She's clearly found some magnetic lode, which is messing with her compasses. We also know several weeks ago that a man in white clothes named Andor asking about water. That was well after the problems started, though, so I would guess he was trying to solve the problem. It doesn't sound like he's a possible cause.
So, right now, if I had to guess: Hunter got some hint of this rock and came looking for it. She disturbed the mosquito witch, leading to where we are now. I think we need to be looking for Hunter and her magnetlode to solve the problem. Now maybe talking to the witch on Witchtop Hill, or finding Andor, might help us with some more clues, but that's my thought at the moment.
Unless I've missed something?

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Having found all the information they could out of the smith, the party makes their way up to the inn. The Whitefish and Stag inn is the tallest building in Shimmerford and one of the few with a view over the town gates.
You are greeted by the innkeeper, Callum Shay. "Good day, travelers. How can I help you? Rooms? Dinner and a pint?"
There are few people in the inn at this point, just a couple of townsfolk by the looks of it. However, one individual stands out. A haggard looking man with dark messy hair, stubble sparsely forming a goatee, and gaunt cheeks is hunched over and muttering to himself by the front desk near the doorway.

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That was fantastic, thank you!

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My pleasure. I think one of the things I like about PFS Scenarios is they're usually not quite as much to go back through and keep track of as APs!
"Do you have any magnetic rocks? Or men seeking water? Or hunters in gold armor?" Arra asks, ignoring the innkeeper's actual questions.
She looks over at the haggard man, wondering if he might be able to answer her questions -- or even be the answer to one of them.

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Dorian stood slightly behind Arra, watching the haggard m,an as she talked to the Innkeep.
perception: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (9) + 6 = 15

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"Not sure what you are getting at, my friend." replies Shay. "I am an innkeeper. I have rooms, drafts, and dinner."
Dorian doesn't notice anything else about the man.

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"No, thank you," Autumn replies, glancing Arra as she immediately begins questioning the innkeeper.
"We were hoping you might have some information you could share with us about the Mosquito Witch?" she asks, lowering her voice at the end. "Or maybe know someone here who knows something?" she adds, also glancing towards the haggard man.
Yes, thank you for that summary!

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Uninterested in the Innkeeper, or her longshank foods, Toadlicker joins Arra at the table. He holds out the doll to the haggard man. "Maybe this help. Bring buggies. Tasty!"

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Not wanting to burn the bridge with the Innkeeper Dorian stepped up to the counter. Aye we be needin rooms. I be thinkin 3 will do. and yes. meals and drinks for all of us. Bring it to the table next to the man me comrades be talkin to. An can we be gettin him a drink as well. how much we be owin ye for this

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As Toadlicker goes to show the man his waterlogged doll, he notices that he is turning a paper doll over in his hands, the sweat from his skin starting to cause the paper to melt into something horrific looking.
"No... no I am not well.." mumbles the man, staring at his doll.
--------
To Dorian, the innkeeper says, "Sure, I can set you up with that. Business is not what it was, so we have plenty of rooms."

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Toadlicker looks at the mangled paper doll with interest. "What that for? You make own buggie doll? It make you sick?" The goblin doesn't seem overly concerned with catching anything, and actually takes a step forward to examine the paper in more details.
Perception: 1d20 + 6 ⇒ (1) + 6 = 7

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"NO, I did not make it! It’s following me. Ha... hah hahaha! Of course its following me. I’m being stalked by a doll!" He crushes the doll in his hands. "’The iron cave will fall’... what is that supposed to mean? What do you want from me?!"

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"Ha ha haha ha! Yes, 'The iron cave will fall!' I heard it, I did. They keep telling me that!" he cackles, pointing at the now complely uncrumpled paper doll.
When you looked at the doll, you say those exact words scribbled on the doll!

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Toadlicker looks at the paper doll with a degree of fascination, but is able to tear his eyes away. "Where is iron cave? Why it fall?"

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Zandu studies the man, trying to get a measure of him.
Sense Motive? Perception mod is +7

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"Do you have a name?" Arra asks absentmindedly as she listens for the paper doll to speak.
“An idiot. An absolute idiot...” The man laughs sadly to himself, before jerking himself upright. “Oh, wait, you’re... where are my manners? Sorry. Introductions. I’m Quintus. Quintus Chevunier.”

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"Nice to meet you, Quintus. Now, who is 'they' that told you about the cave falling? And do you know Andor? Or Hunter? And why do you think the doll is following you?"

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”Not following me.... watching me. I am such an idiot! Such an idiot!” he cries out. His head falls to the desk as he clutches the paper doll.

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"The mosquito witch is watching you, or is someone or something else? Why are you an idiot? Did you do something? Should we be watching you?" Arra asks, eyes now focused directly on Quintus. "If you tell us, maybe we can help you."

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”You would be too, if you came here,” he says, before realizing his mistake. “Not that I'm implying you're idiots. I just meant that if you were me and came here, you would be an idiot... I'll shut up now.”

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Gonna help this along.
”Why are you here?” asks Arra.
” “Because it wants me to be here. I shouldn't have come... but no, that's what it wanted me to do. It was trying to scare me, so I wouldn't come... but what if it was being straightforward with me to trick me into thinking it was trying to trick me into staying away?” Quintus twists the doll in his hands. “It doesn't matter... it always gets what it wants.”

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Responding to Zandu, he says. ”No idea... did the Witch get them, too?” he cries out, sobbing even harder.

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“It’s in my nightmares. Go on, laugh!” Quintus snaps. “Laugh at the paranoid madman! Ever since I came too close to this damned town, I can’t get rid of it. It shows up and doesn’t say anything but when I wake up, I know things. Six and four dead on the Shimmerford road. But how? But why? Is the witch causing it? What does that have to do with the mosquitoes? And why is someone stealing shovels? I don’t even know how I know it... Maybe I’m supposed to cause it.”

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"Ten people dead? When? Where? And what shovels are missing?"
Shovels could be used for digging up stone ... magnetic stone... If there are people dead, maybe whoever's going after this stone is killing folks -- and perhaps controlling the mosquitoes somehow? -- to try to drive them away.

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“I don’t know. I have to figure it out. It’s trying to make me do something and I have to make sure I don’t... ah gods, what if telling you was what it wanted? No, no, it couldn’t have known I would talk...”
“Shovels? They’ve all gone missing. And picks. Hammers. Rope. Lanterns too. Maybe it’s a thief? But maybe that’s what it wants me to think. There must be some significance... it’s probably staring me right in the face and I just. Can’t. Think of it!”

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Toadlicker seems to be thinking really hard, then suddenly blurts out "Maybe they need tools for Iron Cave? Maybe Iron Cave is where Magetite rock is found. Where is Iron Cave?"
All those words seemed to take a lot of energy, and the goblin takes a moment to catch his breath.

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Arra nods, pleased that Toadlicker has alighted on what seems the most pertinent questions.
"Then we just need to know why this is angering the Witch... We can go ask at Witchtop Hill," she suggests.

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Zandu listens for the answer, certain the others are onto something.