Well, it's partly dependent on what you want to do with your Druid.
If you want to play it as a caster, always behind a proper frontline, then you should go with Studded Leather. 15ft. of speed is really crippling and you don't need AC that much if you are not on the frontline.
If, on the other hand, you want to be on the frontline then you are quite screwed. Either you take a proper AC with the Hide Armor but you have subpar speed or you take a Studded Leather Armor but you have low AC, which is really a bad idea on the frontline. But you don't have neither Strength nor Dexterity, so I think the frontline is a bad idea for your character.
I don't see much of the appeal of Leather Armor, skills are not that important especially considering that you have neither high Strength nor high Dexterity.
Are you planning to use wild shape often/primarily? (ie since it sets your AC, if its your primary plan in battle, trading off AC for mobility is easier to justify in that case).
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Druid's can't wear metal armor.
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Assumptions: 10 str, 14 dex, no Unburdened Iron.
The dwarf is part is mentioned in case the below average speed is a factor.
Can't decide between leather, studded leather, or hide. Should AC be maximized, or are the costs for checks and movement too high?
Hide Armor without doubt.
Drakeheart Mutagen is a thing.
I agree but it can be very expensive in early levels if there are no alchemist dedication or one in the party and Polymorph trait can be a problem too if the druid wants to switch between caster and wild shape mode.
This recommendation is only in low levels. At LvL 5 switch to a Studded Leather Armor and at LvL 10 switch to Leather Armor. This way you will removing the penalties over time.
This probably belongs more in the 'why isn't there more variety in armors thread', but... I really dislike that the only cross-armor-type progressions are "going lighter and lighter as you level up" or "anything->plate mail once you can afford it".
Sure, for the ultimate rogue/thief, the lighter and lighter armor "dex is my armor/evasion" fantasy is really strong, and I'm glad that supported/stays competitive, but it would be nice it it wasn't as universal for non plate wearers.
This happen more due how PF2 increases the stats over time not exactly because how the armors work problem.
In D&D and PF1 as you can choose only one stat to increment the players tend to only increment their key stats and abandon the other stats to initial one until the end of the game. In this situation you basically keeps the same armor category during all game.
But PF2 the designer chose to increase 4 different stats at same time. This avoid that situation where characters become overspecialized how usually happen in D&D and PF1 versions where for example a DEX focused char will only have DEX and the rest of stats just became frozen since the creation (OK I know that 5E the stats are limited to 20 and in 3.5/PF1 usually the spellcasters tend to switch to DEX/CON after achive the 20 in their spellcasting stats but yet you rarely see a non DEX focused char improving DEX).
And this is what make the chars to abandon medium armors over time. They simple becomes more and more agile and the lighter armors becomes more interesting over time. It's not like the medium armors become worse. It's just the char that becomes more agile over time and tends to switch to lighter armors due this.