# Hunted Shot Clarification

### Rules Discussion

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SuperBidi wrote:
And your maths are wrong. I'm raising awareness against this fallacy: -6 attacks are not good attacks.

What if I can hit on a 18 at -6? Is that a good attack? What if I can hit on a 16? 14? What number do I need to be able to hit on before I am making a "good attack?"

You won't hit on a 10 with a -6 attack. In general, you'll hit around 17. And it's not good.

Not really bad, compared to -10 attacks. But not worth a class ability as important as Hunter's Edge.

If I need a 17 and I'm getting +2 from other buffs, then I'm only needing a 15. Is that a good attack?

SuperBidi wrote:
You won't hit on a 10 with a -6 attack. In general, you'll hit around 17. And it's bad.

That doesn't sound quite right to me. That is more like level+1 or level+2 boss territory as opposed to in general. That would imply most martials other than a fighter shouldn't bother with their 2nd attack. And that just doesn't feel right based on my experiences playing along side a Champion.

Typical Ranger will have an 18 attack stat (Strength or Dexterity), and trained at level 1 for +7. Level 1 "high" AC for monsters is 16. That should be 15 or higher to hit (25% chance to hit, 5% chance to crit) assuming a -6 MAP. First shot hits on a 9 or higher (50% chance to hit, 10% chance to crit). Expected damage of the 3rd attack is exactly half that of the 1st. A -10 instead would imply hit on 19, crit on 20 (5% chance to hit, 5% to crit, expected 15%), so 3rd attack does something like 1/5th expected damage of the 1st (ignoring precision).

This holds at higher levels. At level 11, a high AC is 31. Typical Ranger at 11 would have 20 attack stat, +2 to hit weapon, and expert proficiency, for +22. 1st shot hits on a 9, 3rd shot hits on a 15.

A moderate AC level 13 or a high AC level 12 would require a 17 to hit with a -6 penalty for a level 11 Ranger.

Is 50% expected damage of your first attack, or phrased another way, a 70% chance of failure a bad option? Every two "third" attacks in that case is worth a single first attack. Really depends on your other options, but it doesn't sound crazy to take the shot.

N N 959 wrote:
If I need a 17 and I'm getting +2 from other buffs, then I'm only needing a 15. Is that a good attack?

It's not a question about being a good attack or not. There are other alternate abilities which will give you similar bonuses, like the Bear Support Ability that I have highlighted in my graphs. And to be really better than the Bear Support Ability, they need to reach ridiculous level of chances to hit, meaning you're certainly in a Trivial Encounter.

They are not good enough because you can get similar damage by using something else that is far easier to get than an Hunter's Edge.

SuperBidi wrote:
N N 959 wrote:
If I need a 17 and I'm getting +2 from other buffs, then I'm only needing a 15. Is that a good attack?
It's not a question about being a good attack or not.

It absolutely is because you're the one who insisted on that qualification as to whether it makes sense to use a -6 attack.

Quote:

There are other alternate abilities which will give you similar bonuses, like the Bear Support Ability that I have highlighted in my graphs. And to be really better than the Bear Support Ability, they need to reach ridiculous level of chances to hit, meaning you're certainly in a Trivial Encounter.

Bear Support only works if you hit with an attack. So the more attacks I hit with, the better my Bear Support damage. A Ranger gets ZERO damage from an attack that is never made because the MAP modifier precludes the attack. So if you're going to hammer me that -6 is a bad attack, then no Precision Ranger is using it's 3rd and 4th attacks...ever. So cross that expected damage off your total along with its Bear Support.

A Mature Companion (lvl 6 feat) doesn't even need to use an action to use Support because it gets 1 free action without a command. This blows up the action economy argument vs bosses.

If you read the entry for AC's, you'll note that the Companion gets the benefit of the Hunter's Edge. That means a Bear will actually get another 1d8 damage from Precision, if it attacks and does not use Support. Considering an AC can only get two attacks, that approach would seemingly favor Precision over Flurry. And if your Precision Ranger is at -5 (certainly on the threshold of what you consider a bad attack) then is it better to have the Bear simply attack and get Precision damage? I don't know. Lots of moving parts.

However, I want to avoid getting into the pros/cons/impacts of companions on the Edges. Your initial assertions were about Precision vs Flurry, straight up. Adding companions is far more complex than just Bear Support.

The bottom line is your "fallacy" that no one should use an attack at -6 off the Primary is the actual fallacy. If you want to subscribe to it, that's entirely your prerogative. But I see how it's a critical assertion for Precision advocates because you want to be convinced that the -6 attack is no better than the -10 and thus you aren't losing anything by not having Flurry.

SuperBidi wrote:
N N 959 wrote:
If I need a 17 and I'm getting +2 from other buffs, then I'm only needing a 15. Is that a good attack?

It's not a question about being a good attack or not. There are other alternate abilities which will give you similar bonuses, like the Bear Support Ability that I have highlighted in my graphs. And to be really better than the Bear Support Ability, they need to reach ridiculous level of chances to hit, meaning you're certainly in a Trivial Encounter.

They are not good enough because you can get similar damage by using something else that is far easier to get than an Hunter's Edge.

Of course, bear support does come with its own opportunity cost, namely in terms of feats to get and keep your pet up to date. At 1st level it takes your class feat (so no Hunted Shot at 1st), at 6th it takes 2 out of 4 feats, at 10th it takes 3 out of 6 feats, and 4 out of 9 at 16th.

So at 1st level isn't the comparison more like:
Precision + Bear Animal companion feat + 14 Str/18 Dex composite longbow:
1) Minion action to have the bear move 35 feet and support
2) Hunt prey
3) Strike for 1d8+1d8+1d8+1

Flurry + Hunted Shot + 14 Str/18 Dex composite longbow
1) Hunt Prey
2) Hunted shot (-0/-3) 1d8+1/1d8+1
3) Strike (-6) 1d8+1

Option 1 is clearly better with enemies starting within 35 feet, but the second option is arguably more flexible if enemies start farther away or you have to deal with difficult terrain or even flying enemies.

At higher levels its going to depend a lot on the precise builds you are considering (pun intended).

I could totally see a Ranger with Rogue Archetype aiming to grab things like Hunted Shot, Rogue Dedication, Sneak Attack, Snare Specialist, Powerful Snares, and Camouflage, and not wanting a large, non-sneaky animal companion around. The build would aim to avoid notice, detect enemies early, and place snares out of sight before beginning combat, and aiming to catch targets flat footed against their stealth initiative.

Or a Ranger with Fighter Archetype grabbing point blank shot and combining with Far Shot on a composite shortbow for an additional +2 damage within 120 feet, and no ranged penalty out to 240 feet against their hunted target.

Of course those types of options are very feat intensive and become harder to combine with an up to date animal companion.

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N N 959 wrote:
A Mature Companion (lvl 6 feat) doesn't even need to use an action to use Support because it gets 1 free action without a command. This blows up the action economy argument vs bosses.
Mature Animal Companion wrote:

Your animal companion grows up, becoming a mature animal companion and gaining additional capabilities (page 214).

If you have the Hunt Prey action, your animal companion assaults the prey even without your orders. During an encounter, even if you don’t use the Command an Animal action, your animal companion can still use 1 action that round on your turn to Stride toward or Strike your prey.

N N 959 wrote:
Considering an AC can only get two attacks

Mature Companions can do 3 Attacks. 1 for free and 2 when ordered.

4 with Companion's Cry.

After doing some calculations by hand, I'm convinced the highest Ranger DPR build is a Flurry Ranger with an Animal Companion with Bear Support (assuming the bear Support ability can crit), regardless of if you have to mark your target or not.

This is comparing Flurry + Bear support, vs Precision vs Bear Support, specifically at level 10.

Comparing generic flurry vs generic precision, flurry wins when using all 3 actions to attack and you don't need to spend an action to mark.

Precision wins at 2 attacks.

Yes, I can see that a strict reading suggests that despite Support only costing 1 action, it's technically not one of the actions the animal can take without a Command. Still, that means the Ranger doesn't have to spend actions getting the Mature AC into position.

If the Mature AC gets a Free strike, and the Ranger uses that option, it would seem stronger with Precision...but then the Precision Ranger doesn't really need the extra actions, so an odd marriage at first glance.

Nevertheless, thank you for pointing that out.

Quote:
Mature Companions can do 3 Attacks. 1 for free and 2 when ordered.

I'm not seeing where it says it gets an extra action, only that it gets at least 1 action if not Commanded to do anything (because otherwise it would get none). IIRC, this was a change made post-Playtest for Rangers to alleviate some of the action economy issues.

MongrelHorde wrote:

After doing some calculations by hand, I'm convinced the highest Ranger DPR build is a Flurry Ranger with an Animal Companion with Bear Support (assuming the bear Support ability can crit), regardless of if you have to mark your target or not.

This is comparing Flurry + Bear support, vs Precision vs Bear Support, specifically at level 10.

Comparing generic flurry vs generic precision, flurry wins when using all 3 actions to attack and you don't need to spend an action to mark.

Precision wins at 2 attacks.

Bear support can't critical as it does not roll to hit. It is also the bear dealing damage, so it is not added to your attack damage. It is a separate damage roll that just happens with the bear as the source. This also means damage reduction is extremely effective against it since it applies both to the bear's 1d8 slashing damage as well as to your shot's damage. It also means when you roll a critical hit, the bear's damage is not doubled.

MongrelHorde wrote:

After doing some calculations by hand, I'm convinced the highest Ranger DPR build is a Flurry Ranger with an Animal Companion with Bear Support (assuming the bear Support ability can crit), regardless of if you have to mark your target or not.

This is comparing Flurry + Bear support, vs Precision vs Bear Support, specifically at level 10.

Comparing generic flurry vs generic precision, flurry wins when using all 3 actions to attack and you don't need to spend an action to mark.

Precision wins at 2 attacks.

Well, there's an issue somewhere as my graphs prove that Bear Support + Precision outdamages Bear Support + Flurry...

And I really tend to trust my graphs on this one, as the less arrows you throw with Flurry and the more Precision goes ahead.

Hiruma Kai wrote:
Of course, bear support does come with its own opportunity cost, namely in terms of feats to get and keep your pet up to date.

Some good stuff in your posts. I think there are some other opp costs you wont see in a line graph, that being that an AC is usually crit magnet for Bosses...on 2nd and even 3rd attacks. If we focus on bosses, whether your AC survives more than one or two rounds may be highly dependent on the GM's choice of targets. Even one shot might compel a Ranger to withdraw it, eating up actions.

Quote:
3) Strike for 1d8+1d8+1d8+1

Wouldn't that be 3d8+1, not 3d8+3? I don't think the Bear or Precision get to add STR damage.

SuperBidi wrote:
as the less arrows you throw with Flurry and the more Precision goes ahead.

Absolutely. The whole point of Flurry is to reward the Ranger for making more attacks. The questions is how often does that happen and what are the likelihood of hitting with those attacks? For Precision, you're really only interested in the 1st attack. You really don't even need Hunted Shot or Twin Takedown to be effective, so taking a Companion makes a lot more sense.

Again, the greatest thing about Precision is the alternate build space it opens up without being universally inferior or universally better..

SuperBidi wrote:
MongrelHorde wrote:

After doing some calculations by hand, I'm convinced the highest Ranger DPR build is a Flurry Ranger with an Animal Companion with Bear Support (assuming the bear Support ability can crit), regardless of if you have to mark your target or not.

This is comparing Flurry + Bear support, vs Precision vs Bear Support, specifically at level 10.

Comparing generic flurry vs generic precision, flurry wins when using all 3 actions to attack and you don't need to spend an action to mark.

Precision wins at 2 attacks.

Well, there's an issue somewhere as my graphs prove that Bear Support + Precision outdamages Bear Support + Flurry...

And I really tend to trust my graphs on this one, as the less arrows you throw with Flurry and the more Precision goes ahead.

Are you able to copy and paste the full attack routines from the graph? They are cut off, so I can't compare my analysis, my run of the tool, and your graph.

SuperBidi wrote:

And your maths are wrong. I'm raising awareness against this fallacy: -6 attacks are not good attacks.

If -6 attacks are not good, are they really all that worse than the second shot from a Precision hunter? AS NN 959 just mentioned, why would a Precision ranger take Hunted Shot if a -6 attack is bad and therefore a -5 shot is almost as bad.

If -5 shots are worth taking on their own, then all you need is Inspire courage and the potentially 2 additional -6 attacks are now ALSO worth taking. If -5 shots aren't worth taking unless part of Hunted Shot, then why would a martial without agile weapons ever use more than 1 action to attack?

MongrelHorde wrote:

Are you able to copy and paste the full attack routines from the graph? They are cut off, so I can't compare my analysis, my run of the tool, and your graph.

2 actions:

Ranger Precision Edge + Ranger Bear Support + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -5a

Ranger Bear Support + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -3a

Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -3a + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -6a

3 actions:
Ranger Precision Edge + Ranger Bear Support + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -5a + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -10a

Ranger Bear Support + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -3a + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -6a

Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -3a + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -6a + Martial Propulsive 18a16++ 1d6 deadly d10 -6a

N N 959 wrote:
Hiruma Kai wrote:
Quote:
3) Strike for 1d8+1d8+1d8+1
Wouldn't that be 3d8+1, not 3d8+3? I don't think the Bear or Precision get to add STR damage.

Isn't that what I wrote? 1d8+1d8+1d8+1 = 3d8+1. Three d8's and a +1. Apologies if it is hard to read.

Just to make things explicit at level 10, which is presumably similar to the chart's underlying math:
Assume Str 18/Dex 20. +2 striking composite shortbow of flaming shock. +10+4+5+2=+21 to hit and 2d6 P +2 Str + 2 weapon spec + 1d6 F + 1d6 E (or 4d6+4)

Feats assumed are Animal Companion, Hunted Shot, Far Shot, Mature Animal Companion, Hazard Finder, Incredible Companion.

Moderate AC level 10 is 29 AC.

0) Presume prey has been hunted prior to turn
1) Minion action to support and/or move
2) Hunted Shot (-0/-5)
3) Strike (-10)

Precise and Bear support rolled damage (2d8 for nimble/savage):
4d6+4+1d8 = 22.5+ 9 = 31.5 non-crit
8d6+8+2d8 + 1d10 = 50.5 + 9 = 59.5 on critical

No precise, but does have Bear support rolled damage
4d6+4 = 18 + 9 = 27 non-crit
8d6+8 + 1d10 = 41.5 + 9 = 50.5 on critical

1st attack: Hits on 8, criticals on 18: 0.5 * 31.5 + 0.15*59.5 = 24.675 expected
2nd attack: Hits on a 13, criticals on 20: 0.35*27 + 0.05*55 = 12.2 expected
3rd attack: Hits on an 18, criticals on 20: 0.1*27 + 0.05*55 = 5.45 expected

1 attack 24.675, 2 attacks 36.875, 3 attacks 42.325

Flurry and bear support (-0/-3/-6):
1st attack: Hits on 8, criticals on 18: 0.5*27 + 0.15*55 = 21.75 is expected
2nd attack: Hits on 11, criticals on 20: 0.45*27 + 0.05*55 = 14.9 expected
3rd attack: Hits on 14, criticals on 20: 0.3*27 + 0.05*55 = 10.85 expected

1 attack 21.75, 2 attacks 36.65, 3 attacks 47.5

So flurry deals 88% of precision on a single attack, 99% of precision on 2 attacks, and 112% on 3. Given these parameters at least.

If we bump the level up by 1 (moderate AC goes to 30, to hit goes to +22, precision damage goes up by 1d8, so an extra 0.5*4.5 + 0.15*9=3.6 on the 1st attack), then the numbers become:

Precision 1 attack 28.275, 2 attack 40.485, 3 attacks, 45.925

In this case flurry stays the same. Flurry still edges out the 3 attack case at level 11, but no longer ties the 2 attack case.

Not sure why my numbers seem to disagree with your chart's level 10 and 11 calculations. It is possible I made a mistake, but I'd love it if someone points it out to me. Or perhaps note the different assumptions I've made?

Edit: It is possible I'm over estimating the wealth in the character's weapon. Dropping a shock rune would shift the numbers more towards the precision case, although it seems in line with a potential level 11 character focusing on damage.

Ah, you're writing 1d8 + 1d8 + 1d8 + 1. Yes, my bad. It looks like there's a +1 on the end of all those 1d8s. lol.

As to the analysis...

Interesting. But ask yourself if a Precision Ranger is taking that shot at -10? If not, then you're really looking at Precision at 36.975 and Flurry at 47.5 with the Precision Ranger taking some alternate action and then you have to try and decide if that is something you can tack on to a straight damage calculation, which is what we are suppose to be comparing, not ancillary benefits.

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Hiruma Kai wrote:
Not sure why my numbers seem to disagree with your chart's level 10 and 11 calculations. It is possible I made a mistake, but I'd love it if someone points it out to me. Or perhaps note the different assumptions I've made?

You've forgotten to add Precision damage on the second attack and third attack if the previous attacks misses.

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SuperBidi wrote:
Hiruma Kai wrote:
Not sure why my numbers seem to disagree with your chart's level 10 and 11 calculations. It is possible I made a mistake, but I'd love it if someone points it out to me. Or perhaps note the different assumptions I've made?
You've forgotten to add Precision damage on the second attack and third attack if the previous attacks misses.

You're right, I did. Although looking at that, its a relatively small expected damage increase. 0.35*0.45*4.5=0.70875 for a 2nd attack at 10th and 0.6*0.35*0.2*4.5=0.189 for the second, so roughly a 1 point difference in the cumulative damage for 3 attacks.

My bigger issue is using 55.0 damage for non-precision criticals instead of 50.5 in the calculations apparently.

So I went to code it up real quick in python, including the precision applying to first successful hit, and fixed the 55 to 50.5 assumption of non-precision critical damage.

Level 10, precision
1st:24.675, 2nd: 12.68375, 3rd: 5.52425
Cumulative 2nd: 37.35875, Cumulative 3rd: 42.883

Level 10, flurry
1st: 21.075, 2nd: 14.675, 3rd: 10.625
Cumulative 2nd: 35.75, Cumulative 3rd: 46.375

Flurry wins out on 3rd or more attacks, precision wins on 2 or fewer. Even if you drop 1 shock rune, this stays true.

Level 11, precision
1st: 28.275, 2nd: 13.3925, 3rd: 5.8235
Cumulative 2nd: 41.6675, Cumulative 3rd: 47.491

Edit: Had left the lack of a shock rune in the calculation I first posted for level 11.

Flurry remains the same. In which case precision not quite but almost ties flurry on 3rd attack. Precision pulls ahead slightly on 3 attacks.

My guess is the equipment rune assumptions are affecting this compared to the charts.

One the bright side, I think the Dev's did a good job on the math for this, as precision and flurry seem to be comparable, while also having interesting differences. Flurry for example becomes more powerful with buffs like haste, while Precision is going to be stronger if you've been slowed. Flurry will be better if you are exploiting a weakness to silver, while Precision will be better against enemies with resistance (although not immune to precision damage for obvious reasons).

Edit: An interesting point of comparison is the 3rd flurry attack is worth roughly 83% of the precision's 2nd attack in terms of expected damage. Also, if you take the 1st shot with a precision build, and know you hit, then you know your expected damage for your 2nd shot is only

Now, wouldn't it be nice if we could switch which we wanted to use in any given round :)

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I'd be interested in the comparison sans bear (for both Precision and Flurry). Not everyone wants a bear, y'know?

I'd be interested in the comparison sans bear (for both Precision and Flurry). Not everyone wants a bear, y'know?

Propose a build?

Here's how the numbers might play out for a Hunted Shot, Fighter Dedication, Point Blank Shot, Far Shot build using the same gear as before and within 120 feet of the target. 4d6+6 normal hit, 8d6+12+1d10 critical, so +2 striking shortbow of flaming shock.

Actions would be:
0) Assume hunt prety from a previous turn
0) Assume point blank shot from beginning of fight
1) Hunted Shot
2) Strike
3) Strike

If there's no companion, then there's no need to spend an action on support. Point blank is a 1 time cost, at the beginning of a fight, so sometimes you'll be able to get 4 attacks off.

10th, 1d8 Precision + Point Blank Shot Stance
1st = 20.425, 2nd = 9.98375, 3rd = 4.57425, 4th = 4.5293625
2nd cumulative = 30.40875, 3rd cumulative = 34.983,4th cumulative=39.5123625

10th, Flurry + Point Blank Shot Stance
1st = 16.825, 2nd = 11.275, 3rd = 8.275, 4th = 8.275
2nd cumulative = 28.1, 3rd cumulative = 36.375, 4th cumulative=44.65

11th,2d8 Precision + Point Blank Shot Stance
1st = 24.025, 2nd = 10.6925, 3rd = 4.8735, 4th = 4.783725
2nd cumulative = 34.7175, 3rd cumulative = 39.591, 4th cumulative = 44.374725

Precise does really well at the level 11 bump it looks like, but loses out at 3 or 4 attacks at 10th level, for example.

So the tool defaults to one d6 rune at 8 and one at 15 if super bidi didn't change anything. The runes aren't named though, so no flaming critical damage.

Hiruma Kai wrote:

10th, 1d8 Precision + Point Blank Shot Stance

1st = 20.425, 2nd = 9.98375, 3rd = 4.57425, 4th = 4.5293625
2nd cumulative = 30.40875, 3rd cumulative = 34.983,4th cumulative=39.5123625

10th, Flurry + Point Blank Shot Stance
1st = 16.825, 2nd = 11.275, 3rd = 8.275, 4th = 8.275
2nd cumulative = 28.1, 3rd cumulative = 36.375, 4th cumulative=44.65

11th,2d8 Precision + Point Blank Shot Stance
1st = 24.025, 2nd = 10.6925, 3rd = 4.8735, 4th = 4.783725
2nd cumulative = 34.7175, 3rd cumulative = 39.591, 4th cumulative = 44.374725

Precise does really well at the level 11 bump it looks like, but loses out at 3 or 4 attacks at 10th level, for example.

Quote:
Edit: An interesting point of comparison is the 3rd flurry attack is worth roughly 83% of the precision's 2nd attack in terms of expected damage.

I think what's more interesting that the expected damage of the 3rd attack for Precision is adding only 15% more damage, or less to total at that point. Compare that with Flurry and the 3rd attack is tacking on about 30%, at that point.

As I said before, the Precision Ranger is going to see far less value in taking attacks at -10. We see the pro-Precision group in this thread insisting that -6 isn't worth taking. This suggests it is not really valid to compare the builds on an attack per attack basis when that's not what's happening in actual game play. Given that fact, in actual game play, Flurry builds are going to do considerably more straight up damage to the extent that can take a 3rd attack and Precision builds don't want to roll at -10 to the Primary. And as I stated, it's an open question as to what that 3rd action is doing for the Precision build and its combat value.

I think third attacks are valid for both. You're not going to just waste your actions… fishing for 20s is always a valid option.

citricking wrote:
I think third attacks are valid for both. You're not going to just waste your actions… fishing for 20s is always a valid option.

You may think that, but the issue whether the people who are using Precision builds think that. Two of the most ardent Precision advocates in this thread insist that -6 is bad. So they aren't taking a shot at -10 and any damage comparison that uses the 3rd and 4th shot for Precision is inaccurate. Their damage profile stops at two shots, not three.

Does this mean they are automatically doing less damage? Obviously not. I don't have any population statistics on how often a Flurry Ranger can get off three or more attacks. I will say that its going to be far more likely against a Boss based on my own experience.

Hiruma Kai wrote:

Level 10, precision

1st:24.675, 2nd: 12.68375, 3rd: 5.52425
Cumulative 2nd: 37.35875, Cumulative 3rd: 42.883

Level 10, flurry
1st: 21.075, 2nd: 14.675, 3rd: 10.625
Cumulative 2nd: 35.75, Cumulative 3rd: 46.375

Flurry wins out on 3rd or more attacks, precision wins on 2 or fewer. Even if you drop 1 shock rune, this stays true.

Level 11, precision
1st: 28.275, 2nd: 13.3925, 3rd: 5.8235
Cumulative 2nd: 41.6675, Cumulative 3rd: 47.491

First, you have omited 1-action sequences, which should be better for Precision. I agree that they are less common than 2 and 3-action sequences, but they happen and should be taken into account.
Second, you used a 5.5 average damage third attack on the Precision 3-action sequence. I think we can both agree that it's easy to replace it with a more impactful action. At level 11, Warden's Boon should net you around 7 points of damage, True Strike should be easy to get by level 10-11, and then there are lots of non-damaging actions that can be taken (but it would be hard to compare them to a damage-oriented action).

At level 10, we see that Precision and Flurry are extremely close. As it's hard to know the occurrence of 1, 2 and 3-action sequences, it's hard to say which one is ahead, but it should be by less than a single point of damage, so we can safely call it a draw. Level 10 is supposed to be the worst level for Precision.
At level 11, Precision is always better than Flurry.

Which is what I'm pointing out: Precision is never worse than Flurry and very often better. Precision is just a better choice.

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I believe they're assuming Hunted Shot, which does indeed make even one action of attacking equal out to two attacks the vast majority of the time.

And maybe it does beat out at 11th, but at 12th or 13th, they both get Greater Striking and the more damage each individual attack does (as long as the bonus damage doesn't cost actions), the better Flurry is gonna look.

I believe they're assuming Hunted Shot, which does indeed make even one action of attacking equal out to two attacks the vast majority of the time.

And maybe it does beat out at 11th, but at 12th or 13th, they both get Greater Striking and the more damage each individual attack does (as long as the bonus damage doesn't cost actions), the better Flurry is gonna look.

I've posted graphs above clearly showing that it never happens. Level 10 is actually the worst level for Precision.

N N 959 wrote:
citricking wrote:
I think third attacks are valid for both. You're not going to just waste your actions… fishing for 20s is always a valid option.

You may think that, but the issue whether the people who are using Precision builds think that. Two of the most ardent Precision advocates in this thread insist that -6 is bad. So they aren't taking a shot at -10 and any damage comparison that uses the 3rd and 4th shot for Precision is inaccurate. Their damage profile stops at two shots, not three.

Does this mean they are automatically doing less damage? Obviously not. I don't have any population statistics on how often a Flurry Ranger can get off three or more attacks. I will say that its going to be far more likely against a Boss based on my own experience.

When they aren't taking a third shot it's because they are doing something better… so posting the data with a third shot is showing their minimum. They'll be contributing the equivalent of that at the very least.

SuperBidi wrote:
Hiruma Kai wrote:

Level 10, precision

1st:24.675, 2nd: 12.68375, 3rd: 5.52425
Cumulative 2nd: 37.35875, Cumulative 3rd: 42.883

Level 10, flurry
1st: 21.075, 2nd: 14.675, 3rd: 10.625
Cumulative 2nd: 35.75, Cumulative 3rd: 46.375

Flurry wins out on 3rd or more attacks, precision wins on 2 or fewer. Even if you drop 1 shock rune, this stays true.

Level 11, precision
1st: 28.275, 2nd: 13.3925, 3rd: 5.8235
Cumulative 2nd: 41.6675, Cumulative 3rd: 47.491

First, you have omited 1-action sequences, which should be better for Precision. I agree that they are less common than 2 and 3-action sequences, but they happen and should be taken into account.
Second, you used a 5.5 average damage third attack on the Precision 3-action sequence. I think we can both agree that it's easy to replace it with a more impactful action. At level 11, Warden's Boon should net you around 7 points of damage, True Strike should be easy to get by level 10-11, and then there are lots of non-damaging actions that can be taken (but it would be hard to compare them to a damage-oriented action).

At level 10, we see that Precision and Flurry are extremely close. As it's hard to know the occurrence of 1, 2 and 3-action sequences, it's hard to say which one is ahead, but it should be by less than a single point of damage, so we can safely call it a draw. Level 10 is supposed to be the worst level for Precision.
At level 11, Precision is always better than Flurry.

Which is what I'm pointing out: Precision is never worse than Flurry and very often better. Precision is just a better choice.

Thanks for all the analysis.

You can show the impact of wardens boon on an example party member by using the difference of two routines ^_^

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SuperBidi wrote:
I've posted graphs above clearly showing that it never happens. Level 10 is actually the worst level for Precision.

Your charts say it never happens at two or three attacks, when using a bear companion. It does not necessarily follow that this is true for three and four action attacks comparing them sans bear.

A bear companion is really good mathematically, but not every Ranger is gonna have one. Knowing Precision is better when you do have one is good info, but not the whole picture.

Likewise, all those analyses are vs. on-level foes. An analysis of how the two compare vs. Level +2 or +3 foes would also interest me, since those are one thing under discussion. How they do vs. lower level foes is also part of the picture, but probably not as relevant of one.

Your charts say it never happens at two or three attacks, when using a bear companion. It does not necessarily follow that this is true for three and four action attacks comparing them sans bear.

A bear companion is really good mathematically, but not every Ranger is gonna have one. Knowing Precision is better when you do have one is good info, but not the whole picture.

I've taken the bear companion because it's easy to make a damage calculation with it. But you'll have the same efficiency whatever action you use, be it Animal Companion, True Strike, Point Blank Shot, or even non-damaging options like Demoralize, Recall Knowledge, Battle Medicine...

What I point out is that you can very easily replace a -10 attack by a more impactful action and that -6 attacks are not good enough compared to alternate actions. Now, the actions you use are yours to decide, depending on what you find the more meaningful for your character or impactful on the fight at this precise moment (pun intended!).

Likewise, all those analyses are vs. on-level foes. An analysis of how the two compare vs. Level +2 or +3 foes would also interest me, since those are one thing under discussion. How they do vs. lower level foes is also part of the picture, but probably not as relevant of one.

Citricking damage calculations show that the enemy AC has a low impact on Precision and Flurry comparison.

I made some really complicated graphs for many different actions a flurry or precision edge archer ranger could take at levels 10 and 11.

At 10 with all 3 actions we have:
46 for flurry (bear+3strikes)
42 for precision (bear+3strikes)
Precision would do more if it could use a limited resource like true strike, or have a wolf attack twice with precision edge.

Without an animal companion we have:
37 for flurry (4 strikes)
32.5 for precision (4 strikes, or some strikes and wardens boon)

So flurry does beat out precision edge in precision edge's worst case scenario...

So warden's boon isn't that good at 10, and true strike is really nice for a precision ranger. But of course that is with bear damage being doubled on a crit, which is not guaranteed how all GMs will rule that.

These are all with one d6 weapon rune, which is not the max, but it really is a significant part of wealth by level for level 10(damage trends seem to indicate those damage runes weren't assumed when calculating power scaling).

the data:

SuperBidi wrote:

Your charts say it never happens at two or three attacks, when using a bear companion. It does not necessarily follow that this is true for three and four action attacks comparing them sans bear.

A bear companion is really good mathematically, but not every Ranger is gonna have one. Knowing Precision is better when you do have one is good info, but not the whole picture.

I've taken the bear companion because it's easy to make a damage calculation with it. But you'll have the same efficiency whatever action you use, be it Animal Companion, True Strike, Point Blank Shot, or even non-damaging options like Demoralize, Recall Knowledge, Battle Medicine...

What I point out is that you can very easily replace a -10 attack by a more impactful action and that -6 attacks are not good enough compared to alternate actions. Now, the actions you use are yours to decide, depending on what you find the more meaningful for your character or impactful on the fight at this precise moment (pun intended!).

Likewise, all those analyses are vs. on-level foes. An analysis of how the two compare vs. Level +2 or +3 foes would also interest me, since those are one thing under discussion. How they do vs. lower level foes is also part of the picture, but probably not as relevant of one.
Citricking damage calculations show that the enemy AC has a low impact on Precision and Flurry comparison.

AC, as well as other damage mitigation effects, have a huge impact.

For example, a Level 4 Ranger with a +1 Striking Longbow, assuming 18 DEX and 14 STR, has a +11 to hit. A Greater Barghest (an actual boss that we encountered at level 4) has an AC of 25.

So, the Flurry Ranger has to roll 14 to hit with the first attack, and 17 to hit with the second. Assuming both of those hit, he deals an average of 9 damage, because Hunted Shot combines for Resistance. If only the first shot hits, which is most of the time, it's 2 damage.

He needs to roll a 20 to hit with either his 3rd or 4th attack, so he essentially gets no Edge benefit at all to those attacks. Even if they hit, they only do an average of 2 damage.

The Precision Ranger on the other hand, has to roll 14 to hit with the first attack, and does an average of 6.5 damage with that attack. He has to roll a 19 to hit with the second shot, and if both hit, he's dealing 13.5 damage, again because Hunted Shot.

On the 3rd and 4th attacks, he has the exact same chance to hit, and the exact same damage as the Flurry Ranger.

This fight was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. My Flurry Ranger was 100% useless, and it only gets worse as enemy levels increase and you throw in things like concealment, hidden, resistances, dazzled, etc...

Against lower level enemies, both are equally great, but that doesn't matter. It's not particularly fun to become a useless lump every time the party encounters a boss, no matter how amazing you feel in regular fights.

First off, Citrick, thank you for joining the discussion.

citricking wrote:
When they aren't taking a third shot it's because they are doing something better… so posting the data with a third shot is showing their minimum. They'll be contributing the equivalent of that at the very least.

That's not an assertion you can make in this context. And...I think you're ignoring the salient point. Whatever a Precision Ranger is doing, they aren't taking that 3rd or 4th shot. So any graph that is adding damage based on those attacks is ....inaccurate.

Superbidi said Precision does more damage, and we can see that in the real game, when Precision Rangers eschew attacks at -6, they aren't taking attacks at -10. So all their damage models must stop at 2 attacks. If you want to assert the 3rd action is doing something better than a 3rd attack, great. But it isn't adding damage as a base assumption and whether it is more impactful is something that has to be proven, not assumed or simply asserted.

The base comparison is a 2 shot Precision vs a 3 (or 4) shot Flurry because that is the optimal pattern for both Edges. And it's clear that barring circumstantial modifiers, Flurry is always doing more damage than Precision. But that assertion hinges on one crucial question, how often does a Flurry Ranger get that 3rd attack? That piece of data is what determines who does more damage.

Now, since we don't know how often a 3rd attack occurs for Flurry, one thing we can do is ball park how often a 3rd attack needs to occur to keep pace with Precision. Looking at HK's numbers (non-bear with HS,Strike, STrike), we see that at 10th level, Precision has 30.4 after two shots and Flurry has 28.1. That's a difference of 2.3. The third attack for Flurry adds 8.x. So this suggests that if a Flurry Ranger gets off one third attack every four rounds, they are keeping pace with Precision.

N, precision rangers can take third attacks. There's no magical force stopping them from taking them because they aren't "the optimal pattern"…

Precision rangers can take third attacks, that's why they are included.

If you were a GM would you stop a player taking a third attack as a precision ranger? Telling them that's not optimal for your edge, you can't do that?

N N 959 wrote:

First off, Citrick, thank you for joining the discussion.

citricking wrote:
When they aren't taking a third shot it's because they are doing something better… so posting the data with a third shot is showing their minimum. They'll be contributing the equivalent of that at the very least.

That's not an assertion you can make in this context. And...I think you're ignoring the salient point. Whatever a Precision Ranger is doing, they aren't taking that 3rd or 4th shot. So any graph that is adding damage based on those attacks is ....inaccurate.

Superbidi said Precision does more damage, and we can see that in the real game, when Precision Rangers eschew attacks at -6, they aren't taking attacks at -10. So all their damage models must stop at 2 attacks. If you want to assert the 3rd action is doing something better than a 3rd attack, great. But it isn't adding damage as a base assumption and whether it is more impactful is something that has to be proven, not assumed or simply asserted.

The base comparison is a 2 shot Precision vs a 3 (or 4) shot Flurry because that is the optimal pattern for both Edges. And it's clear that barring circumstantial modifiers, Flurry is always doing more damage than Precision. But that assertion hinges on one crucial question, how often does a Flurry Ranger get that 3rd attack? That piece of data is what determines who does more damage.

Now, since we don't know how often a 3rd attack occurs for Flurry, one thing we can do is ball park how often a 3rd attack needs to occur to keep pace with Precision. Looking at HK's numbers (non-bear with HS,Strike, STrike), we see that at 10th level, Precision has 30.4 after two shots and Flurry has 28.1. That's a difference of 2.3. The third attack for Flurry adds 8.x. So this suggests that if a Flurry Ranger gets off one third attack every four rounds, they are keeping pace with Precision.

There is no question about Precision ability to outdamage Flurry at all. Precision+Bear Support always outdamages Flurry. I've provided you with the graphs for 2 and 3 actions. And Hiruma made the same calculations for levels 10 and 11.

There is absolutely no reason to go Flurry for a bow Ranger. I know it's hard to buy, but it is like that.

citricking wrote:

N, precision rangers can take third attacks. There's no magical force stopping them from taking them because they aren't "the optimal pattern"…

Precision rangers can take third attacks, that's why they are included.

If you were a GM would you stop a player taking a third attack as a precision ranger? Telling them that's not optimal for your edge, you can't do that?

Let me try again.

Adding third attacks for Precision is invalid because the evidence suggests that Precision builds aren't taking 3rd attacks. It would be tantamount to me modeling a Flurry Ranger only taking one attack.

Quote:
N, precision rangers can take third attacks.

And Flurry Rangers could stop at one attack. But they don't. So using a model which doesn't reflect what is actually happening is what makes it invalid/inaccurate as a representation of actual game play. Consider that you are using builds which you think are realistic builds, so you need to use attack patterns that are also reflective, and a 3rd attack for Precision is not.

Now, if you want to show the potential damage of each build, then I agree you can include all attacks. But in real game play, Precision builds are avoiding those extra attacks and Flurry builds are seeking them out.

SuperBidi wrote:
There is no question about Precision ability to outdamage Flurry at all....

Actually the graphs prove the opposite. When you play Precision based on your playstyle and I play Flurry to based on mine, I am always outdamaging you, by 15% or more. The only way you can pull ahead is if you can stop me from making a 3rd attack, or, you add circumstantial modifiers that heavily favor front-loaded damage.

N N 959 wrote:
SuperBidi wrote:
There is no question about Precision ability to outdamage Flurry at all....
Actually the graphs prove the opposite. When you play Precision based on your playstyle and I play Flurry to based on mine, I am always outdamaging you, by 15% or more. The only way you can pull ahead is if you can stop me from making a 3rd attack, or, you add circumstantial modifiers that heavily favor front-loaded damage.

My playstyle is blue, yours is red. And it's a 3-action sequence, so Flurry is supposed to shine. There is no single level where Flurry can compete with Precision.

I don't know why I'm doing that. You obviously don't want to listen...

I don't have a bear companion. As DMW says, not everyone plays with a companion. So no, you don't have my play-style or my build choices. And given those, Flurry is the better option (more damage) than Precision.

Superbidi wrote:
You obviously don't want to listen...
Superbidi wrote:
I know it's hard to buy, but it is like that.

SuperBidi wrote:

First, you have omited 1-action sequences, which should be better for Precision. I agree that they are less common than 2 and 3-action sequences, but they happen and should be taken into account

1-action sequence is the damage listed for the 1st attack. I just felt saying 1 cumulative attack was a bit silly. And yes, precision wins hands down in that situation. I presented the individual attack information because you can see the decision break down more easily. If the ranger's are hasted, then you just add on another 3rd attack to the damage (at that point the expected damage difference for precision finally making a hit on the last attack is much less than 1 point of damage). But of course, a single attack is precision's best case. Just as 4 or 5 attacks is flurry's best case. It'd be a false choice if these options did identically in all situations.

I presented levels 10 and 11 as they're basically precision's worst and best match up against flurry, as the damage bonus doubles between those two levels. Plus I only had to calculate flurry once.

Aratorin wrote:

AC, as well as other damage mitigation effects, have a huge impact.

For example, a Level 4 Ranger with a +1 Striking Longbow, assuming 18 DEX and 14 STR, has a +11 to hit. A Greater Barghest (an actual boss that we encountered at level 4) has an AC of 25.

So, the Flurry Ranger has to roll 14 to hit with the first attack, and 17 to hit with the second. Assuming both of those hit, he deals an average of 9 damage, because Hunted Shot combines for Resistance. If only the first shot hits, which is most of the time, it's 2 damage.

He needs to roll a 20 to hit with either his 3rd or 4th attack, so he essentially gets no Edge benefit at all to those attacks. Even if they hit, they only do an average of 2 damage.

Just want to clarify that there is a difference between a flurry and precision ranger on their 3rd attacks in this case.

Natural 20 + 11 - 10 (MAP) = 21. That doesn't even hit AC of 25, so failure bumps up to a normal hit. Natural 20 + 11 - 6 (MAP) = 25. That hits a Barghest's AC, and so bumps to a critical hit. 2d6-5 vs 4d6+1d10-5 is a fair bit of difference on that admittedly 1 in 20 chance. Certainly if you do roll that one 20 during the fight, 2 is going to feel different from 14.5 average damage. Still not great against a boss, but that is why you've got 4 characters wailing on him. Also any debuff on the Barghest won't help a precision ranger's 3rd attack until it reaches +4, while the flurry is gaining normal hit chances with each single point.

I agree resistance will generally make precision better (except maybe against some aberrations with precision resistance/immunity), but on the other hand, a weakness that can be exploited will tend to make flurry better. Slow will make precision better, while for a ranged striker already in position, haste makes flurry better. True Strike is great for a first attack, but haste is great for a 4th or 5th and lasts multiple rounds.

So like many things in the game, which is better really depends a lot on circumstances, build choices, team composition and level.

I still believe Precision is better when the chips are down, but Flurry is more enhanceable and thus can shine more with teamwork. Flurry has lower lows, but higher highs.

As an example of enemy composition, if you're in a campaign fighting demons, flurry is going to be a much better choice, assuming you can get your hands on cold iron arrows.

For teamwork, if your 10th level 6 person team is constantly piling on Synethsia, Fear, bard song or heroism, Haste, and cat pet flat-footed against bosses, flurry is going to do really well. And yes, a flurry ranger will be a priority for haste and heroism in such a party because flurry magnifies those buffs.

If your 1st level 3 person team is up against a construct with adamantine resistance 3, precision is going to do much better (although if you've got 16 strength, pulling out a short sword and attacking that way will probably do better than shooting).

Except in the cases of strong resistance or weaknesses, the two options seem relatively balanced against each other to me. We're not seeing factors of 2 differences, we are seeing 10% or 15% differences with the 2 or 3 attack sequences. A player is unlikely to notice the difference in the long term successes or failures of the party when comparing the two.

Hiruma Kai wrote:
I still believe Precision is better when the chips are down, but Flurry is more enhanceable and thus can shine more with teamwork. Flurry has lower lows, but higher highs.

I definitely agree with this. I'll also add that Precision seems, to me, more thematically appropriate with the "hunt your prey" and lone wolf paradigm. As you suggest, a Ranger who is primarily on his/her own, would be much better served by Precision.

I play a lot of PbP PFS, so 6 person teams are pretty standard, so party buffs/monster debuffs are fairly common. If I were in a 4 person AP, I would probably go Precision (and maybe a companion.

The other benefit from Precision, which you won't see on a graph, is the impact of front-loaded damage. When Expected Damage is equal, getting big hits, is almost always better because it generally leads to killing things earlier in the combat. Crit'ing with Precision has more alpha strike potential and that means fewer retaliatory attacks/less damage taken/fewer resources spent. So Precision has a lot going for it.

Quote:
Except in the cases of strong resistance or weaknesses, the two options seem relatively balanced against each other to me.

Yes, that's exactly what we would expect Paizo to endeavor. So kudos to them for coming up with Precision (a "balanced" alternative to Flurry) late in the cycle (assuming that they hadn't already had it ready as an option). Which makes me wonder if maybe Paizo had designed Precision from the get-go, but withheld it to see how people liked Flurry.

The nice thing about P2 is that retraining is an option. So I might switch over to Precision with my archer if I have lots of experiences similar to Aratorin. But as an archer, I've noticed it's really easy (and safe) to plop down 35 feet from combat and just fire at will.

Hiruma, if you look at the graphs you see precision edge does just as well as flurry against low ACs, this is because of the greater chance for the precision damage to double. Haste is a fair point in its favor though. So if flurry only outperforms precision in exceptional circumstances (haste, 3 actions used to attack with a longbow at level 10, weaknesses) and precision is better in way more situations then it seems like flurry is really underperforming compared to precision, and that's something people should be aware of when making a decision, because I would think people would assume flurry is better when you take 3 attacks.

N, we are asking different questions then, I feel it is better to ask how much damage each build would contribute when spending the equivalent amount of actions on damage. That is more important. And I disagree that precision rangers don't take -10 attacks.

citricking wrote:
N, we are asking different questions then, I feel it is better to ask how much damage each build would contribute when spending the equivalent amount of actions on damage.

But if that is not how the game is played, then the question is mostly irrelevant. It's similar to asking who does more damage on a single attack each round. Or who does more damage unarmed. That isn't actually useful information. Sure, you can answer that question, but it's not reflective of what's happning in the game.

Quote:
And I disagree that precision rangers don't take -10 attacks.

I never said Precision Rangers don't make attacks at -10. The people who play Precision Rangers in this thread are saying. it. You're disagreeing with me, but I'm not the one who is making that claim, I'm reminding you of what they are saying.

SuperBidi wrote:
A Precision Ranger never attacks at -10 as it's a waste of an action.....
Aratorin wrote:
Against enemy bosses, The first Attack hit, and the other 3 routinely missed. Boss ACs are so high, that -3,-6,-6 is just as detrimental as -5,-10,-10.

And to be honest, I don't think Bidi's assertion is outlandish. Psychologically, I would think most players are going to look for an alternative action versus rolling at -10, unless they absolutely have nothing else they can do. How often does any player have a more appealing action than rolling at -10? I don't know.

Hiruma Kai wrote:
For teamwork, if your 10th level 6 person team is constantly piling on Synethsia, Fear, bard song or heroism, Haste, and cat pet flat-footed against bosses, flurry is going to do really well.

Nope. Flurry doesn't do really well, it just does average.

Graph

This is a graph with Synesthesia and Inspire Heroics + Inspire Courage on an average AC enemy. So, this is way overkill against a non boss enemy. I've cumulated 2 and 3 action sequences to get one graph. Precision is blue, Flurry is red. Flurry is like 2% better in an absolutely unrealistic situation where it is supposed to shine.

For Haste, it doesn't really come online before Haste 7. Before, you'll never Haste the Precision Ranger, you'll just Haste someone else. I've quickly compared the damage of a Flurry Ranger third attack to other Martials (Barbarian and Fighter) third attacks and it does 2 points of extra damage. So, I think we can ignore that as it's not really massive.

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