My Reign of Winter campaign has shifted to the fourth part of The Snows of Summer with a planned assault on the Pale Tower. However, one thing that was suggested by the group to the people held at the White Weasel tavern was that they could evacuate to Taldor and that they'd even include a letter to Lady Argentea so they could hopefully be relocated. The write-up for the aftermath of the encounter with the Pale Tower Guards in Waldsby states the following:
Following the Pale Tower guards’ visit to Waldsby, the villagers become agitated. Everyone realizes that the PCs’ presence (and actions, especially if they killed the soldiers) will surely bring retribution down on Waldsby as soon as Nazhena and Radosek learn what happened. If the PCs rescued Nadya, she offers to lead them to the Pale Tower, preferring an aggressive retaliation in hopes of catching Nazhena and her minions off guard rather than cowering in fear, which is the village’s typical response.
So, how many in Waldsby do you think would take up the adventurers on their offer? They showed up under the guise of being merchants. But they do suffer frequent forays by the Pale Tower, and it's likely most of the Pale Guard are not from Waldsby (as Nazhena wouldn't want anyone to have their sense of duty get into conflict with local sentiments) so it's not even like they have family on guard at the Pale Tower (and the "hired help" are all fae, amusingly enough).
As an aside, the people who were "arrested" were the blacksmith, the dwarven barber (one of the PCs had her hair worked on by the barber), the owner of the general store, the local priest, and the gnomish carpenter, along with Emil, owner of the White Weasel, seeing he'd been hit by a Charm Person by one of the players and thus was seen acting nicely toward the "strangers." Katrina was still quite hostile against the PCs and even assisted the guards against the PCs but survived the combat when she fled and hid behind her husband after being hit in the fight.)
I do think there are some people who would refuse to leave. For instance, Birgit Holorova is Nazhena Vasilliovna’s factor and is trusted by Nazhena. Likewise, Garthur Kalinin owns the sawmill and would likely refuse to move, and may very well offer Katrina sanctuary if Emil did decide to leave (and the PCs showed him mercy, saved him from guards who were insisting on blaming him for the "strangers," so I could see him choosing to leave rather than face further blame by the White Witches). And no doubt there are people who live in the outskirts of town who just keep their heads down and hope for the best.
But would there be some who were willing to leave, rather than stay?
And if a majority of townsfolk did head to the Winter Portal, would Nadya send her children with them? Or would she want to keep them close as is suggested in the second book of the AP?
Anyway, I was hoping to get some thoughts from you guys. :) Thank you :)
So, here's my update.
The group advocated for people leaving. About half of Waldsby left. However, the group didn't provide an escort to the Winter Portal. I had the townsfolk intercepted by the Pale Tower Guard and ravens and they were overwhelmed and massacred. After the adventurers returned from the Pale Tower (passing the guard patrol who was behind the massacre) they came across stake after stake with the heads of townsfolk mounted on them. Only those who remained behind were left untouched (mostly).