Simulated encounter risk to kill players


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Using Matlab I simulated bakers dozen lvl2 moderate encounters over level 2 for 1000 tables for various stat changes

average party lvl2 baseline

four PCs STR+3, WIS+2, HP30, AC18, Attack [7 2], Perception 8, melee d8+STR

average lvl2 enemy (medium humanoid)

two NPCs STR+3, WIS+1, HP30, AC18, Attack [10 5], Perception 7, melee d8+STR

Area charts varied for PC stats show average percentage of encounters with zero to four killed players.

mixed initiative, focus fire only at living, death saves for PC, dead for NPC, post encounter one hour Treat Wound each PC, no combat healing, no hero points.

AC chart can be used to get risk improvement for shielding rather than moving. You want to match your opponents AC


HP is realistic range for all ancestry/classes


STR is used for attacks and damage bonus, this is most important because of constant critical damage. Being weaker than your opponent is dangerous.


WIS is used for Initiative and Treat Wounds, dumping WIS is just as bad as dumping HP. (33 max dmg vs 30 max hp)


Initiative matters even more with side initiative


and with 10m break, side initiative


and with 10m break, STR4 NPC, side initiative (36 max dmg vs 30 max hp)


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