Molthune feels a bit like Falkovnia from old Ravenloft- an aggressive military expansionist power hemmed in by barriers to its ambitions- which seem well beyond its presented capabilities.
Nirmathas forces an ugly, grinding stalemate because plucky wilderness freedom fighters are a Thing.
Nidal is... Nidal. Invading it is a horrible idea.
Druma is a place I personally wouldn't mind seeing shaken up a bit just so I can figure out what it's for, but the Blackjackets and the Kalistocracy's deep pockets make its outright conquest unlikely.
Isger's certainly weak enough- but Cheliax has its claws sunk in deep there, not sure that's a confrontation Molthune wants.
Lake Encarthan doesn't exactly lend itself to conquest- not least because the states surrounding it range from Kyonin (good luck with that, Mon-Keigh!) to Razmiran to Lastwall (yeah, no) to Ustalav (possibly the best choice, but on quite the wrong side of the lake to make supply lines feasible).
For Molthune to succeed, someone else has to lose. I do think a stab toward Isger in the wake of Cheliax getting rattled by the Glorious Reclamation and the breakaway of Ravounel would be an interesting way to mix things up for them- instead of battering themselves against the Nirmathi who have demonstrated that they want nothing to do with Molthune's rule, Isger could very well welcome someone willing to provide law and order without the diabolical trappings of Cheliax.
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Unfortunately, even if Molthune were so inclined to intervene in Isger, it got caught up in the business with the Ironfang Legion and missed its chance. Odds are Cheliax will have integrated Isger as an Archduchy by the time Molthune has freedom of action again (this is mentioned in the Continuing the Campaign portion of Hell's Vengeance).
Geography isn't favorable either. While Druma and Cheliax have flat roads into Isger, Molthune has to cross the Menador Mountains. Which are themselves infested by surprisingly high-level threats, including Illcayna Alonnor and Kaltessa Iyis.
Thinking about this some more, Molthune and Lastwall seem like natural allies. Lastwall always flourished best when it was sponsored by an external power - first Taldor, then Cheliax - and the supply lines for that likely ran through Molthune. Molthune has a big army with which its geography and neighbors prevent it from doing much, and Lastwall is undermanned and open to invasion from the northwest. Molthune might welcome the opportunity to station soldiers on the northern border of Nirmathas, and so flank its target.
** spoiler omitted **