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I think if there is a mechanic that could be ditched completely, this would be it. I think I sort of get the idea behind them. It makes elixirs feel less like magic and more like science if the change happens a little more gradually, and there are some tactical considerations to when you drink various types of elixirs, such as more powerful mutagens having longer onset times. It also could serve as a control factor for Quick Alchemy allowing spontaneous access to the entire formula book.
But like... man is it adding complexity. Trackings rounds can already be tricky, especially when temporary conditions are involved. Now tracking how long it takes those conditions to start? Ouch. You don't know how much longer a combat will last, either, which makes cracking one of these open a potential waste of actions and resources.
And mutagens, let's talk about mutagens. As their duration and effect increases, so does their onset time. How often can you predict a combat or a skill check with enough accuracy to know when to guzzle one, or which one to guzzle? They already have drawbacks built into them which hurts their appeal. Do they need this level of complexity? Now, there are Research Fields and class feats which allow you to reduce or ignore onset times. But having to spend resources to remove such a burden seems pretty onerous, and runs counter to a design goal our boy Jason laid out recently.
See, in his January interview with Know Direction, Jason described what his ideal version of Pathfinder looked like. It was something that was easy to learn to play, but you could discover huge depths to plumb. He wanted the complexity to be opt-in. You choose your own level of complexity when you select your feats, rather than expecting a baseline of that complexity as the bare minimum to play. Onset times being a default you can toggle off with a feat is the exact opposite of this. It makes an aspect of the game harder to understand and enjoy unless you opt in to make it easier on yourself, at the expense of other cooler feats.
On a related note, I think elixir bonus types might be suffering from some of this. They always provide item bonuses. Generally speaking, a mutagen will provide a slightly higher item bonus than magical equipment of equivalent level. But this makes it harder to figure out the effects of X elixir on Y party member. I don't even think you'd need to create a new bonus type. Even just making them into conditional bonuses would mean they would mostly just need to compared to spells, which feels a lot more intuitive for a temporary effect from what is basically a potion.
This would probably necessitate lowering the bonus size, because a +5 bonus on top of a +3 from permanent items seems nuts. And this would actually be a downgrade to the alchemist. Currently it can provide a +1 net gain to a well equipped party member and +3 to an under-equipped one, but this change would mean both party members only gain +1. But it might be worth the cost.
So if increasing onset times and scaling item bonuses to stay ahead of equipment aren't fun, that doesn't leave as much to differentiate the minor/lesser/standard/greater/true versions of the same mutagen. So maybe there shouldn't be different versions of the same thing? They certainly take up a lot of real estate right now. Collapsing at least some of the differences between them might let you condense them into single item entries like bombs have, which would be nice.
The main thing the mutagens do provide that doesn't clash with item bonuses come in the form of scaling fringe benefits. Stronger Quicksilver Mutagens make you more and more accelerated, Juggernaut gives you more and more hit points. This sort of feels like the best justification for higher grade versions of these mutagens existing. But I think we could take this further. Instead of making an upgraded quicksilver mutagen, why not make a higher mutagen grant brand new affects?
You could tie this into existing lore and monsters, as well. Create a harpy mutagen that grants creatures a fly speed and talons. A bulette mutagen could provide improved natural armor and a burrow speed. This could also create fun hooks for discovering uncommon mutagens or giving you bonuses to inventing them.
Regardless, I think mutagen onset time should probably be standardized if not axed entirely. If we want to allow for a gradual in fiction transformation effect, "end of your next turn" is about as long as I think it can last and be entertaining, although that particular wording is weird because it means you sort of have it start sooner if someone else feeds it to you. "Start of your next turn" still has that problem. 1 round might be the simplest phrasing. And their duration really shouldn't be less than 10 minutes if it is a major shift in the body. I'd probably use an hour as a default, though.
Instead of having feats that let you ignore onset time, I think a more fun, opt-in mechanic would be letting you extend that onset time. So you can drink a mutagen before walking into a fancy banquet and not have it go off immediately. Or perhaps you can delay the onset time to increase the duration.
Anyway, all that is to say I think the mutagens need serious work, and I hope we get some improvements when the final edition drops!
This sums up a lot of the problems me and my Alchemist player had with the class after the more obvious ones like Resonance were removed in 1.6, very well said. The other glaring issue for us was how poisons worked in general, basically a big unfun mess.
I feel like if they got rid of the "poison disappears on a miss" thing I'd have much less to object to on poisons, but that's an easy house rule. Heck, even making it lost on a critical failure would be better.