Weapon Maths, including magic +5

Magic Items

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I'll let the maths speak for itself

Some assumptions I made during this:
♦ Lone PC is on foot and has +3 for damage modifier atribute at level 1, rising to +5 at level 20. No Feats or Powers to adjust damage or accuracy.
♦ One 'Target Dummy' with AC such that 10 on d20 is a hit for the first attack (so crit on 20). Doesn't move or any other reactions. Not Flat-footed. HP is average for level 1 or 20 as from LuniasM's spreadsheet
♦ The following weapon traits have no direct effect on damage: Attached, Finesse, Free-Hand, Nonlethal, Maneuvers (Disarm/Shove/Trip), Parry, Racial/Class, Reach, Thrown, Unarmed, Versatile.
♦ The following weapon traits have no effect in this situation: Sweep, Backstabber. I may go back and adjust the scenario so that they are counted too.

Things I learned or had confirmed for me:
♦ Dice size trumps all, except in a couple of circumstances (deadly when you can only hit on a crit)
♦ A d3 'weapon' exists! It's universally awful!

There's a slight error in your Light Pick calculations for the 3rd attack. There should be a 10% chance to hit and 5% chance to crit, not 5% chance to hit and 5% chance to crit (you divided by 20 when you should've divided by 10 there).

Other than that, the math checks out. These numbers are for a PC who starts with 16 in Str and doesn't improve it beyond 20. For an optimized PC, they should start out at +4 damage at level 1, increasing to +7 at level 20.

EDIT: I found another error with your level 20 Fatal weapon calcs. You have F62/20 in the Greatpick calcs, meaning you're adding 6d12 to the damage on a crit, instead of 1d12, leading to an overestimation.

Essentially, your calculation boils down to:

(6d10 + 5) / 2 + (6d12+5) / 10 + 6d12 / 20

When it should be

(6d10 + 5) / 2 + (6d12+5) / 10 + 1d12 / 20

The same error shows up in your Pick and Light Pick calculations, leading to a slight increase in their damage.

Pramxnim wrote:

There's a slight error in your Light Pick calculations for the 3rd attack. There should be a 10% chance to hit and 5% chance to crit, not 5% chance to hit and 5% chance to crit (you divided by 20 when you should've divided by 10 there).

Other than that, the math checks out. These numbers are for a PC who starts with 16 in Str and doesn't improve it beyond 20. For an optimized PC, they should start out at +4 damage at level 1, increasing to +7 at level 20.

EDIT: I found another error with your level 20 Fatal weapon calcs. You have F62/20 in the Greatpick calcs, meaning you're adding 6d12 to the damage on a crit, instead of 1d12, leading to an overestimation.

Essentially, your calculation boils down to:

(6d10 + 5) / 2 + (6d12+5) / 10 + 6d12 / 20

When it should be

(6d10 + 5) / 2 + (6d12+5) / 10 + 1d12 / 20

The same error shows up in your Pick and Light Pick calculations, leading to a slight increase in their damage.

Oh, thank you, I'll go and correct these!

EDIT: Fixed, also realised all the agile amounts were off fo their third attacks. Forgot agile was effective +2 for second attack. Let me know if you find any more discrepencies :)

CommanderCoyler wrote:

Some assumptions I made during this:
♦ Lone PC is on foot and has +3 for damage modifier atribute at level 1, rising to +5 at level 20. No Feats or Powers to adjust damage or accuracy.
♦ One 'Target Dummy' with AC such that 10 on d20 is a hit for the first attack (so crit on 20). Doesn't move or any other reactions. Not Flat-footed. HP is average for level 1 or 20 as from LuniasM's spreadsheet
♦ The following weapon traits have no direct effect on damage: Attached, Finesse, Free-Hand, Nonlethal, Maneuvers (Disarm/Shove/Trip), Parry, Racial/Class, Reach, Thrown, Unarmed, Versatile.
♦ The following weapon traits have no effect in this situation: Sweep, Backstabber. I may go back and adjust the scenario so that they are counted too.

Things I learned or had confirmed for me:
♦ Dice size trumps all, except in a couple of circumstances (deadly when you can only hit on a crit)
♦ A d3 'weapon' exists! It's universally awful!

How much better would Deadly and Fatal be if your first attack hit on a 7?

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Maps, Rulebook, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

I realize this might be an annoying request but would you consider adding in the Monk style types to the table?

I think there is an error in every crit calculation. Consider the light pick:

Light Pick: d4, Agile, Fatal d8 wrote:
({dice}+{ability})/2+({fatal}+{ability}})/10+{fatal}/20

In the second term you are dividing by 10 instead of 20. I assume this is because you are multiplying the term by 2 (aka a crit) however, the crit's base damage is already covered by the first term since every crit is also a hit.

I think you would be well served to parameterize the chance to hit so that people can play with the spreadsheet. It would make it a more useful tool :)

xevious573 wrote:
I realize this might be an annoying request but would you consider adding in the Monk style types to the table?

I think most of them are already there. Dragon style is the same as a "Greatclub: d10, Backswing" for example.

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Maps, Rulebook, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
Knight Magenta wrote:
xevious573 wrote:
I realize this might be an annoying request but would you consider adding in the Monk style types to the table?
I think most of them are already there. Dragon style is the same as a "Greatclub: d10, Backswing" for example.

Most styles are indeed covered by another option. But Tiger and Wolf Style are d8 with Agile and Wolf style also has a situational Forceful trait. There are no Agile d8 weapons in the weapons table that he made and Curved Blade/1d8 only covers the 1st strike of Wolf Jaw Strike if flanking.

Ludovicus wrote:
How much better would Deadly and Fatal be if your first attack hit on a 7?

Probably not gonna do a full sheet on this, just some quick calculations, but:

Expected damage for Greatpick with 7 to hit on first number ('AC7' for short):
Spoiler:
Level 1:
1 Attack: 9.35
2 Attacks: 14.025
3 Attacks: 16.575

Level 20:
1 Attack: 37.9
2 Attacks: 57.825
3 Attacks: 68.25

Expected damage for Greatsword at 'AC7' (for comparison):
Spoiler:
Level 1:
1 Attack: 8.55
2 Attacks: 1.3
3 Attacks: 15.675

Level 20:
1 Attack: 39.6
2 Attacks: 61.6
3 Attacks: 72.6

Knight Magenta wrote:
In the second term you are dividing by 10 instead of 20. I assume this is because you are multiplying the term by 2 (aka a crit) however, the crit's base damage is already covered by the first term since every crit is also a hit.

Aiming for a 10 on a d20 gives a 50% (10-19) chance of a regular hit (hence the x/2 on the regular damage), then a 5% (20) chance of crit (would be 2x/20, which I simplified to x/10)

Knight Magenta wrote:
I think you would be well served to parameterize the chance to hit so that people can play with the spreadsheet. It would make it a more useful tool :)

I had thought about doing that while doing the above, where the chance to hit intersects with chance to crit makes it difficult to parameterise though. Backswing is an annoyance to work out also.

Knight Magenta wrote:

I think there is an error in every crit calculation. Consider the light pick:

Light Pick: d4, Agile, Fatal d8 wrote:
({dice}+{ability})/2+({fatal}+{ability}})/10+{fatal}/20

In the second term you are dividing by 10 instead of 20. I assume this is because you are multiplying the term by 2 (aka a crit) however, the crit's base damage is already covered by the first term since every crit is also a hit.

I think you would be well served to parameterize the chance to hit so that people can play with the spreadsheet. It would make it a more useful tool :)

The calculation is correct. The crit chance and hit chance are separated.

The assumption is you hit the target on a 10+, that means there are 11 instances on a d20 where you hit. Each instance occurs at a 5% probability, meaning you have a 55% chance to either hit or crit.

Of that 55%, 50% represents hits, and 5% represents crits. That means that half the time, you will merely hit and do normal damage, and one in twenty times, you will crit and do double damage.

EDIT: Ninja'd. On that note, I think your Greatpick calcs for hitting on a 7 are too low. I'm getting 71.85 damage for 3 attacks at level 20. Similarly, the level 1 calculations are a slightly low as well.

Ah, I failed at the maths. Thanks :)

xevious573 wrote:
Knight Magenta wrote:
xevious573 wrote:
I realize this might be an annoying request but would you consider adding in the Monk style types to the table?
I think most of them are already there. Dragon style is the same as a "Greatclub: d10, Backswing" for example.
Most styles are indeed covered by another option. But Tiger and Wolf Style are d8 with Agile and Wolf style also has a situational Forceful trait. There are no Agile d8 weapons in the weapons table that he made and Curved Blade/1d8 only covers the 1st strike of Wolf Jaw Strike if flanking.

To be honest, I haven't looked at the monk class at all XD. Might do one for Tiger and Wolf if/when I get around to adding sweep and backstabber.

Pramxnim wrote:
On that note, I think your Greatpick calcs for hitting on a 7 are too low. I'm getting 71.85 damage for 3 attacks at level 20. Similarly, the level 1 calculations are a slightly low as well.

What hit and crit percentages did you use for the calculation? I used:

50% hit (7-16) and 20% crit (17-20) on the first
40% hit (12-19) and 5% crit (20) on the second
15% hit (17-19) and 5% crit (20) on the third

CommanderCoyler wrote:
Pramxnim wrote:
On that note, I think your Greatpick calcs for hitting on a 7 are too low. I'm getting 71.85 damage for 3 attacks at level 20. Similarly, the level 1 calculations are a slightly low as well.

What hit and crit percentages did you use for the calculation? I used:

50% hit (7-16) and 20% crit (17-20) on the first
40% hit (12-19) and 5% crit (20) on the second
15% hit (17-19) and 5% crit (20) on the third

I used the same numbers. Upon further inspection, I realized it was my numbers that were a bit high. I used a formula that was used to calculate Forceful damage and forgot to remove some variables. The end result is that my crit damage was adding +6 from number of dice, leading to a very slight increase.

Went back and redid the math. My initial numbers were higher because I applied the Critical Specialization for Picks in my calculations.

The Crit Spec grants you +1 damage per weapon damage die on crits (including extra dice from a crit), so that a level 20 Greatpick will deal 13d12 + 10 + 13 on a crit, where the 13 comes from its Critical Specialization.

Pramxnim wrote:

Went back and redid the math. My initial numbers were higher because I applied the Critical Specialization for Picks in my calculations.

The Crit Spec grants you +1 damage per weapon damage die on crits (including extra dice from a crit), so that a level 20 Greatpick will deal 13d12 + 10 + 13 on a crit, where the 13 comes from its Critical Specialization.

Ah, fair enough, glad the error was fixed :)

Studied some excel functions and worked out how to paramaterise the 'AC' (and base Multi Attack Penalty, for all you Rangers out there).
Updated the sheet except the backswing weapons!
Let me know if I broke anything with the update :)

Don't have a spreadsheet since I like doing those math on paper, but in my simulations Picks (with light pick offhand) and Great picks were the top dpr followed by Falchion in high level content (level 14 and 20) using builds (so not just raw damage) (Falchion was better at 14, picks at 20)

I used level 14/20 fighter vs level 14/20 monsters stats and I only assumed Flat-footed.

Since I used fighter, I also calculated at 4 and 5 attack actions instead of 3.

The reason is that the "pick group" gets boosted a great deal more than all the other weapons by Keen since it basically has 3.5x crit multiplier

And for the Falchion it was the forceful trait interaction with Steady Strike fighter feat.

Good to see some analysis, albeit applicable in only a very limited circumstance.

I am not really sure why you decided to go with +3 damage at level 1, when 4 would be the usual. Also, likely to pick up a +2 to stat item before level 20, so likely to have +7 to damage.

The analysis does show that you do not lose much damage when going from a 1d12 weapon to a d10 reach weapon. I definitely think it is worth it.

Also, exploiting a vulnerability seems to add considerable damage. Example: a cold iron, holy weapon gets you 30 damage against high level demons (with an extra 2d6 coming from the unholy itself), which is a nice big chunk.

It would be interesting to see how much things change when up against weak enemies. Maybe 15% crit chance.