The inevitable Brexit thread

[GreyWolfLord]

Sissyl wrote:

I am no expert, but I don't see either Berlin or Paris becoming a financial Mekka of Europe. Amsterdam, though, might have a shot at it.

Personal opinion...France is the joke that the rest of the EU knows about, but which they (France's economic advisors) do not. They think they are equal to Germany, but in truth, without anyone else to ally with (like Britain) they are simply German lackeys at this point. As long as they do what Germany says, they appear powerful and one of the pillars of the EU, but as soon as they go against Germany on their own, they have no recourse and fail.

This is probably one of the big threats that could spur on Frexit. Right now, it's a minority that no one pays heed to, but once Britain is no longer around to help ally against Germany occasionally, they'll find out just how weak they really are compared to the German economic might. That could give rise to a Frexit type idea as people grow more and more unhappy with the new status quo.

Which is why I agree with you on Paris. It is never going to be the financial haven of Europe.

Berlin on the otherhand...Germany is already rather powerful...they seem to be a good place to put bets on...at least currently. (as I said, personal opinion...I will say, I am HEAVILY biased due to some German connections I have and associate with).

I don't have an opinion on Amsterdam...don't have any assets currently connected to it. Don't know enough about it to say anything about it or not.

I love French creativity though (far more imaginative film, books, and art come from France that I enjoy than Germany...though Germany DOES have a lot of great boardgames that come out of there). However, financially, I normally would almost always bet on the Germany ideas in the EU over most others for the past few years.

Just a PERSONAL opinion of what the financial pillars and economic center of the EU truly lies with. (though, my German friends HAVE had unhappy decisions made they hated in the past...you should have heard them go off about the Greece situation...)

[The Raven Black]

GreyWolfLord wrote:

Sissyl wrote:

I am no expert, but I don't see either Berlin or Paris becoming a financial Mekka of Europe. Amsterdam, though, might have a shot at it.

Personal opinion...France is the joke that the rest of the EU knows about, but which they (France's economic advisors) do not. They think they are equal to Germany, but in truth, without anyone else to ally with (like Britain) they are simply German lackeys at this point. As long as they do what Germany says, they appear powerful and one of the pillars of the EU, but as soon as they go against Germany on their own, they have no recourse and fail.

This is probably one of the big threats that could spur on Frexit. Right now, it's a minority that no one pays heed to, but once Britain is no longer around to help ally against Germany occasionally, they'll find out just how weak they really are compared to the German economic might. That could give rise to a Frexit type idea as people grow more and more unhappy with the new status quo.

Which is why I agree with you on Paris. It is never going to be the financial haven of Europe.

Berlin on the otherhand...Germany is already rather powerful...they seem to be a good place to put bets on...at least currently. (as I said, personal opinion...I will say, I am HEAVILY biased due to some German connections I have and associate with).

I don't have an opinion on Amsterdam...don't have any assets currently connected to it. Don't know enough about it to say anything about it or not.

I love French creativity though (far more imaginative film, books, and art come from France that I enjoy than Germany...though Germany DOES have a lot of great boardgames that come out of there). However, financially, I normally would almost always bet on the Germany ideas in the EU over most others for the past few years.

Just a PERSONAL opinion of what the financial pillars and economic center of the EU truly lies with. (though, my German friends HAVE had unhappy decisions made they hated in the past...you...

Actually I believe it was the other way around : Germany put its weight behind France or the UK depending on which best suited its national interests. France has been historically bad at this

It is interesting to note for example that while France has always been the most vociferous supporter of the Common Agricultural Policy, under the pressure of its farmers, it is actually the German farmers that most benefited from it

Now that the UK is not here anymore, the EU voting system gives a greater weight to France

As for Finance, Amsterdam is the home of Euronext. Second European financial place after the City

[Bluenose]

Economics Web wrote:

As the UK’s likely exit from the EU becomes more concrete, there are three issues regarding non-EU trade. First is the need to renegotiate the UK’s trade arrangements with over 50 countries which were established while the UK was part of the EU (with the UK having signed them as part of the EU, they no longer apply once we exit). Second, the UK’s membership of the WTO has also been on the basis of its membership of the EU. The head of the WTO has stated that it is likely the UK will have to renegotiate the terms of its WTO membership, as at least some members will not be happy to simply allow UK membership to continue. Third, leave campaigners argued that the UK would be able to strike its own trade deals with countries like the US, China and India upon leaving the EU, so there may be the beginnings of some effort in that direction.

All of the above issues are likely to prove intricate and time consuming. The UK starts from a position where it does not have a deep well of resources and experience within the civil service to deal with trade issues. The UK’s negotiating position in these discussions is also likely to be very weak. The simultaneous loss or scaling back of such a large number of trading relationships upon EU exit is likely to be a blow to UK exporters, meaning the need to get a successor deal is more urgent for the UK than for our trading partners. The UK may hope that progress on these issues could be made both before the EU exit is completed and before the full set of follow-on arrangements in our relationship with the EU is clear. However, our non-EU trading partners are likely to want to see the detail of the UK’s relationship with the EU before considering the detail of any bilateral deal with the UK, as there are important interdependencies between those sets of relationships. Put all of this together, and it is likely that the UK’s access to non-EU markets will become markedly more constrained in the wake of the EU exit for a period of years. And to the extent that the UK is able to secure “quick” deals, it is unlikely they will be on terms which are advantageous to the UK.

Here. JP Morgan, with an optimistic view of the UK's short-term economic prospects.

For certain values of 'optimistic', that is.

[The Raven Black]

This sounds apocalyptic. With such consequences for the Brexit, I do not know why the supporters of the Remain would resort to lies

What were the lies given by the Remain side ? We only read about those from the Leave side these days

All of this sounds like paving the way for a decision against leaving the EU, maybe through another referendum

I would hope for a chastised UK meekly asking to be accepted back in the EU, but I do not believe it will happen this way

[Bluenose]

According to Michael Gove, "People in this country have had enough of experts."

Put at it's simplest, the Remain campaign got painted as Project Fear, telling lies about the consequences, and people didn't believe (and in the case of Leave voters still don't believe) that the economic consequences would be particularly bad. Also, for the Leave voters the main issues were immigration and 'sovereignty', with the economy third, so even if they believed the consequences wouldn't be good they voted on other things.

[minoritarian]

Has there been any discussion on this thread about how N.Ireland is affected by this? Ot affects the greater part of my family (militarised border? Good Friday agreements still valid? Etc.) but I'm too drunk to go into it

[Orfamay Quest]

minoritarian wrote:

Has there been any discussion on this thread about how N.Ireland is affected by this? Ot affects the greater part of my family (militarised border? Good Friday agreements still valid? Etc.) but I'm too drunk to go into it

Not on this thread. My understanding is that the N. Ireland situation is sufficiently messed up that no one official is even beginning to look at it yet.

Specifically:

* The Good Friday agreement specifically demands that N. Ireland and the RoI remain in the EU; changing this will undercut the entire agreement. There are some pious hopes that reason and good faith, applied jointly, will be able to salvage this. There are some more cynical types that will point out that the only thing "faith" has ever accomplished in Northern Ireland involves Semtex.

* The RoI is not part of the Schengen area. If the RoI and HMG can come to a suitable cross-border agreement, it will not be necessary to remilitarize the border, or even to put passport controls in place. This would, however, require reason and good faith, applied jointly.

* Similarly, if the UK and the RoI can come to a suitable customs agreement, there will be no need even for customs inspection. This, however, is highly unlikely, because goods can be freely shipped from the RoI to the rest of the EU and vice versa, which means that transshipment through the RoI would be an easy way to evade both EU and UK customs. This is called "smuggling" and it's generally frowned upon in polite society.

[Smarnil le couard]

Orfamay Quest wrote:

* Similarly, if the UK and the RoI can come to a suitable customs agreement, there will be no need even for customs inspection. This, however, is highly unlikely, because goods can be freely shipped from the RoI to the rest of the EU and vice versa, which means that transshipment through the RoI would be an easy way to evade both EU and UK customs. This is called "smuggling" and it's generally frowned upon in polite society.

Can't ! Ireland wouldn't be able to pass an separate agreement about import/export of goods with Brexit-UK. As member of EU, Ireland will apply the global UK-EU treaty (or lack thereof). That mean mandatory border control, if there is no free trade (not likely).

Different thing with people, Ireland being the only other EU country (with UK) being outside the Schengen borders.

[BigNorseWolf]

A much needed and appropriate musical interlude

[thejeff]

BigNorseWolf wrote:

A much needed and appropriate musical interlude

Apropos and just saw it in the local paper today

The British Invasion Retreat

[Werthead]

Quote:

Has there been any discussion on this thread about how N.Ireland is affected by this? Ot affects the greater part of my family (militarised border? Good Friday agreements still valid? Etc.) but I'm too drunk to go into it

So far various people in government have looked at the rhetoric in Northern Ireland about what's happened, the risk of a return to violence, and the mind-boggling expense and practical issues involved in putting border checks back in place, and gone for a stiff drink in the bar. Like Gibraltar, it's something that they didn't quite think through before the election and now the very thought of addressing it is causing migraines.

[Orfamay Quest]

Smarnil le couard wrote:

Orfamay Quest wrote:

* Similarly, if the UK and the RoI can come to a suitable customs agreement, there will be no need even for customs inspection. This, however, is highly unlikely, because goods can be freely shipped from the RoI to the rest of the EU and vice versa, which means that transshipment through the RoI would be an easy way to evade both EU and UK customs. This is called "smuggling" and it's generally frowned upon in polite society.

Can't ! Ireland wouldn't be able to pass an separate agreement about import/export of goods with Brexit-UK. As member of EU, Ireland will apply the global UK-EU treaty (or lack thereof). That mean mandatory border control, if there is no free trade (not likely).

Well, anything is possible in politics. I agree entirely that it would be very difficult for the RoI to come to a suitable agreement (and probably any agreement made would need to be rubberstamped by the EU itself), but the negotiation process with the entire EU as part of Brexit might be able to come up with a suitable compromise.

But there is indeed a reason I wrote this off as "highly unlikely."

[Werthead]

The EU is deeply aware of the risks of doing anything to relaunch the Troubles or being blamed for it, so some kind of compromise is possible. But they'd also be worried that any UK-RoI exclusive deal could then be taken advantage of by other states wanting to trade with Britain to their benefit.

[Orfamay Quest]

Werthead wrote:

The EU is deeply aware of the risks of doing anything to relaunch the Troubles or being blamed for it, so some kind of compromise is possible. But they'd also be worried that any UK-RoI exclusive deal could then be taken advantage of by other states wanting to trade with Britain to their benefit.

Not to mention that "the EU" are not a monolithic entity, despite the tendency of people (myself included) to refer to them with a singular pronoun. Whatever deal is eventually cut will need to be individually ratified by the various member states; even if the Eurocrats think that a particular deal is a good idea, Donald van Trumpf in Utrecht (or Boris Johnsonofski in Warsawa) may have other ideas and may be able to persuade the Dutch (Polish) government as a whole to reject the deal.

And I fear that Donald van Trumpf doesn't care much about being blamed for the Troubles Part II.

[Goth Guru]

Maybe the EU should be repackaged as the EU war effort. Governments have to remember that terrorists are out to kill everyone else. Likewise, there should be a North American War effort, An Asian War Effort(Starting with, hopefully, China, Japan, and Israel, then adding other Asian nations. They can all be part of the worldwide war effort including Australia, The South American War Effort, ect.

Brexit is a lot like the Syrian army trying to use all the military aid they get to fight rebels. IS has plans to cut the throats of everyone else in Syria.

If Hillary can get behind this international war effort, she will have pulled Drumpf's only appealing point, right out of his platform.

(Leaves the soapbox for the next speaker)

[lucky7, Waffle House Patron]

Goth Guru wrote:

(Leaves the soapbox for the next speaker)

(Gets on soapbox)

WAFFLE HOUSE! WOOOOOOOOOO!

(Gets off soapbox)

[Sissyl]

Yes... that isn't a bad idea. Then if we can just spin things loudly enough that "we have always been at war with ...", people will buy it.

[Scythia]

Sissyl wrote:

Yes... that isn't a bad idea. Then if we can just spin things loudly enough that "we have always been at war with ...", people will buy it.

Arendt approved. :P

[Evil Overlord]

Sissyl wrote:

Yes... that isn't a bad idea. Then if we can just spin things loudly enough that "we have always been at war with ...", people will buy it.

It always works for me.

[ericthecleric]

Re Goth Guru's idea, I'm not sure that's such a great idea. Hate preachers claim that Westerners in the Middle East are (modern day) crusaders. Naming the EU the "EU War Effort" would further bolster those claims.

Re people's comments on Hollande
Key quote from that article: "There is a suspicion that Hollande, trailing in the polls and facing both French Socialist party primary elections this year as well as national elections next year, wants to take the toughest line possible with the British for domestic political purposes. There is a also a growing hope in France that Paris, if it makes the right pitch, might be able to grab financial services business from London."

I read on Sunday that Merkel invited Sarkozy to her house, anticipating that he will win next year's election. Naturally, Hollande wasn't too happy with that!

On that topic, which EU countries have [general] elections coming up in the next two years, and how are such events likely to change attitudes to the negotiations?

[Smarnil le couard]

ericthecleric wrote:

On that topic, which EU countries have [general] elections coming up in the next two years, and how are such events likely to change attitudes to the negotiations?

France and Germany both.

See comments above, about why EU can't offer to UK a better deal that it had in the first place, and how Leave voters and newpsapers will spin to sound like the continent is out for british blood.

Soory, but it's not about punishment. You just can't leave and keep all advantages, without any hindrance.

[Pillbug Toenibbler]

[LEAKED] The Brexit Plan: "Roadmap Plan for UK Departure from the EU" :)

[ericthecleric]

Interesting article.

Merkel wants Juncker to go. Of course, she nominated him in the first place!

[The Raven Black]

Sarkozy is even less likely than Hollande to get elected, but in politics you never know till it's done

And I do not see how Paris could ever replace the City as the financial heart of Europe, seeing how we sold our stock exchange to Euronext. This all sounds as rock-solid as Leave arguments

Also I just cannot believe that Hollande would be able to dictate anything to the EU. It is the nature of that beast to be impressively inert and highly resistant to direct leadership attempts

[ericthecleric]

Farage has resigned as leader of UKIP

[The Raven Black]

ericthecleric wrote:

Farage has resigned as leader of UKIP

Quote from Farage in the linked article : ""I'm also very keen to help the independence movements that are springing up in other parts of the European Union, because I'm certain of one thing - you haven't seen the last country that wants to leave the EU.""

I wonder if he is so keen to help the independence movements from Scotland and Northern Ireland :-/

And I guess the benefits from being a EU MP are not so bad after all, since he is not resigning from that function.

All paid for by the EU taxpayers of course :-(

[Rednal]

.....So, if I understand this right, both of the main leaders of the "Leave" movement are stepping away from positions of power and trying to push the responsibility of enacting what they campaigned for onto other people?

[ericthecleric]

You have it right, Rednal. However, Johnson was stabbed in the back by Gove.

[Rednal]

Ah, right. I'd forgotten about that bit.

...Although I still feel like that's a pretty big wash for the British people. They voted a certain way by a narrow margin, but all the major promises supporting that position have effectively been reversed, and even the leaders who promoted it are basically being sidelined through one method or another... and they still don't even know what Parliament is going to do. Huh. o_O So this is what watching a political meltdown looks like.

[GM_Beernorg]

I find it hard to refute the meltdown type nature here...sorry Brits, hope something gets figured out, don't ask Emperor Trump for anything, the cost will be too dear.

[Rysky]

Speaking of...

[GM_Beernorg]

Well played Rysky, well played...pardon while I concentrate on running away from Trumps Praetorian guard, ack!

[Pillbug Toenibbler]

Rednal wrote:

.....So, if I understand this right, both of the main leaders of the "Leave" movement are stepping away from positions of power and trying to push the responsibility of enacting what they campaigned for onto other people?

Brave Sir Nigel

[Kryzbyn]

Happy other Brexit day!

[Smarnil le couard]

ericthecleric wrote:

Interesting article.

Merkel wants Juncker to go. Of course, she nominated him in the first place!

Funny thought : without UK, the majority at the european parliament would pass from the PPE (right) to the PSE (left), leaning more toward political integration and less toward pure business and finance.

The next European Commission president will have to be designated according to this new majority... Unintended and interesting consequence.

[Kazuka]

Smarnil le couard wrote:

ericthecleric wrote:

Interesting article.

Merkel wants Juncker to go. Of course, she nominated him in the first place!

Funny thought : without UK, the majority at the european parliament would pass from the PPE (right) to the PSE (left), leaning more toward political integration and less toward pure business and finance.

The next European Commission president will have to be designated according to this new majority... Unintended and interesting consequence.

So they've created the exact political result they were afraid of?

[Freehold DM]

Kazuka wrote:

Smarnil le couard wrote:

ericthecleric wrote:

Interesting article.

Merkel wants Juncker to go. Of course, she nominated him in the first place!

Funny thought : without UK, the majority at the european parliament would pass from the PPE (right) to the PSE (left), leaning more toward political integration and less toward pure business and finance.

The next European Commission president will have to be designated according to this new majority... Unintended and interesting consequence.

So they've created the exact political result they were afraid of?

So it seems.

[Kazuka]

Freehold DM wrote:

Kazuka wrote:

Smarnil le couard wrote:

ericthecleric wrote:

Interesting article.

Merkel wants Juncker to go. Of course, she nominated him in the first place!

Funny thought : without UK, the majority at the european parliament would pass from the PPE (right) to the PSE (left), leaning more toward political integration and less toward pure business and finance.

The next European Commission president will have to be designated according to this new majority... Unintended and interesting consequence.

So they've created the exact political result they were afraid of?

So it seems.

This Brexit situation is seeming incredibly familiar. Not quite the same order of events, but...

Well, if this ends up in war, I have my "I told you so" gifs already bookmarked.

[BigNorseWolf]

Or it was inevitably going to happen so they bailed.

[Smarnil le couard]

Kazuka wrote:

This Brexit situation is

seeming incredibly familiar. Not quite the same order of events, but...

Well, if this ends up in war, I have my "I told you so" gifs already bookmarked.

I don't see EU fighting to retain UK anymore than UK fighting to get out, don't get too anxious to use your gifs.

And if (very big if) a new majority in EU parliament does get us a new Commission president with more federalist feelings, it will be by the will of the people who elected said parliament. You can't get more democratic than this (pro-Leave people like to ignore the fact than the EU parliament get more and more power, and is indeed elected).

European Commission is another story, as its members are designated by the (elected) national governments. Parliament has got to approve some of them since a quite recent treaty(can't remember which one, and too lazy to look for it at the moment).

[Sissyl]

I don't think they listen to hip hop.

[Eric the Kitten-Bee]

Kazuka wrote:

Well, if this ends up in war, I have my "I told you so" gifs already bookmarked.

Not to fear. Dr. Marten Beechett turned the LHC into an improvised time traveling device to quantum leap back to 1979 to stop the whole thing by gnawing off Margaret Thatcher's ankles.

[Treppa]

Does anyone else find it sad and kind of ironic that all this is occurring during the centennial of WWI, a time when Great Britain sent the flower of a generation to die in (primarily) France and Belgium and to defeat Germany?

And that the age group that voted to exit would be the children of that generation?

The whole thing seems surreal to me.

[Kazuka]

Treppa wrote:

Does anyone else find it sad and kind of ironic that all this is occurring during the centennial of WWI, a time when Great Britain sent the flower of a generation to die in (primarily) France and Belgium and to defeat Germany?

And that the age group that voted to exit would be the children of that generation?

The whole thing seems surreal to me.

The children of the World War generations doing something that screws up your nation? Americans call that "Tuesday."

[Sharoth]

DAMN!!! And that is today! We are FUBARed! Oh well. SNAFU.

[GM_Beernorg]

That is also sometimes a Wednesday for us...depends on the week and all ;)

[ericthecleric]

The next PM will be a woman, either May (pro-remain) or Leadsom (pro-leave).

Labour rebels accept they can't remove Corbyn.

[Charles Evans 25]

Hopefully someone in Brussels is asking themself 'what the heck happened here?' over the referendum result. As far as I can see, on paper at least, the 'remain' side should have had the deck stacked in their favour in the run up:

• Most of the main UK political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP - I'm not sure if Plaid Cymru or the Green Party were pro-remain or not) were behind the 'remain' campaign
• Nicola Sturgeon delivered Scotland as a solidly 'remain' vote
• Northern Ireland was in favour of 'remain'
• The UK's biggest city (London) was solidly 'remain'
• the Government and civil service bigwigs were behind the 'remain' campaign, with massive leafletting and online adverts
• the 'leave' campaign was split into factions, with the faction leaders at times bickering with one another
• Nigel Farage, one of the 'leave' campaign leaders, managed to stab himself and the 'leave' campaign in the foot on several occasions during the runup to the vote by reeling off figures about finance and/or migration that were being questioned and exposed as inaccurate/outright wrong within hours, if not minutes

And yet, with all those things nominally in its favour, and on top of that years of those little 'blue flag with five pointed stars' plaques going up in projects all over the UK to announce that 'this was funded by the EU' (and on the Thursday night that the polls closed, Nigel Farage himself said he thought 'remain' had the result in the bag, before he went to bed), the 'remain' side still lost.
Despite all those things, there was still a majority (almost 52% against 48%) of voters who took part who felt sufficiently disenchanted (or at least disconnected) from the EU to give the day to the 'leave' campaign.
I really hope that someone in Brussels is trying to honestly understand what happened, because somehow the EU (as an institution) appears to have become alienated from a lot of at least UK voters...

[Smarnil le couard]

Charles Evans 25 wrote:

Hopefully someone in Brussels is asking themself 'what the heck happened here?' over the referendum result. As far as I can see, on paper at least, the 'remain' side should have had the deck stacked in their favour in the run up:

• Most of the main UK political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP - I'm not sure if Plaid Cymru or the Green Party were pro-remain or not) were behind the 'remain' campaign
• Nicola Sturgeon delivered Scotland as a solidly 'remain' vote
• Northern Ireland was in favour of 'remain'
• The UK's biggest city (London) was solidly 'remain'
• the Government and civil service bigwigs were behind the 'remain' campaign, with massive leafletting and online adverts
• the 'leave' campaign was split into factions, with the faction leaders at times bickering with one another
• Nigel Farage, one of the 'leave' campaign leaders, managed to stab himself and the 'leave' campaign in the foot on several occasions during the runup to the vote by reeling off figures about finance and/or migration that were being questioned and exposed as inaccurate/outright wrong within hours, if not minutes

And yet, with all those things nominally in its favour, and on top of that years of those little 'blue flag with five pointed stars' plaques going up in projects all over the UK to announce that 'this was funded by the EU' (and on the Thursday night that the polls closed, Nigel Farage himself said he thought 'remain' had the result in the bag, before he went to bed), the 'remain' side still lost.
Despite all those things, there was still a majority (almost 52% against 48%) of voters who took part who felt sufficiently disenchanted (or at least disconnected) from the EU to give the day to the 'leave' campaign.
I really hope that someone in Brussels is trying to honestly understand what happened, because somehow the EU (as an institution) appears to have become alienated from a lot of at least UK voters...

Far from me the idea of raining on your parade, but it seems that the ball is in UK side of the terrain : it's up to HMG to say if they leave or not (as soon as posible to minimize damage, thanks) and EU can't do a thing about it.

If your thought is that EU should lavish on UK an even better deal that it had in the beginning as an incentive, the answer is "hell, no!". Such a train of thought is uncomfortably close to blackmail : gimme more, or else...

[The Raven Black]

Charles Evans 25 wrote:

Hopefully someone in Brussels is asking themself 'what the heck happened here?' over the referendum result. As far as I can see, on paper at least, the 'remain' side should have had the deck stacked in their favour in the run up:

• Most of the main UK political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP - I'm not sure if Plaid Cymru or the Green Party were pro-remain or not) were behind the 'remain' campaign
• Nicola Sturgeon delivered Scotland as a solidly 'remain' vote
• Northern Ireland was in favour of 'remain'
• The UK's biggest city (London) was solidly 'remain'
• the Government and civil service bigwigs were behind the 'remain' campaign, with massive leafletting and online adverts
• the 'leave' campaign was split into factions, with the faction leaders at times bickering with one another
• Nigel Farage, one of the 'leave' campaign leaders, managed to stab himself and the 'leave' campaign in the foot on several occasions during the runup to the vote by reeling off figures about finance and/or migration that were being questioned and exposed as inaccurate/outright wrong within hours, if not minutes

And yet, with all those things nominally in its favour, and on top of that years of those little 'blue flag with five pointed stars' plaques going up in projects all over the UK to announce that 'this was funded by the EU' (and on the Thursday night that the polls closed, Nigel Farage himself said he thought 'remain' had the result in the bag, before he went to bed), the 'remain' side still lost.
Despite all those things, there was still a majority (almost 52% against 48%) of voters who took part who felt sufficiently disenchanted (or at least disconnected) from the EU to give the day to the 'leave' campaign.
I really hope that someone in Brussels is trying to honestly understand what happened, because somehow the EU (as an institution) appears to have become alienated from a lot of at least UK voters...

One word : scapegoating

Blame the migrants
Blame the EU
Blame the elite / establishment

Works wonders when people are desperate