AP after Strange Aeons?


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From what I understand one big thing is the impact on the other lines, rather than purely mustering the enthusiasm to explore new continents.

Because they don't like sending out unsupported product, doing an AP would involve at least one or two campaign setting books, plus a couple of player companions (and probably a few modules/PFS scenarios as well). I suspect that creating a new campaign setting (which is close to what detailing a new continent involves) is much more work-intensive than fleshing out a subset of a pre-existing campaign setting you've been working in for over ten years.

So although I expect they'd like to have material from other continents appearing from time to time, unless it's Tian Xia, it would require something of a company-wide effort to break into a whole new continent.

Maybe the tinkering around the edges with Casmaron which is coming up (The Qadira book plus some sections of the Strange Aeons AP, I believe) will pave the way for a sourcebook there down the track and that a non-Inner Sea AP will follow in a few years.

Liberty's Edge

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UnArcaneElection wrote:

history buff for their own indigenous culture and well versed in writing for American/European audiences to become a fan of Pathfinder, apply for a job at Paizo, and then make the AP.

I suspect there are already people like that at Paizo. In other words, just because you're working there doesn't mean you get to make the AP you want. It still has to pass the normal due diligence -- will it make money, et cetera. If they think an Arcadian AP will make more money than other options, then they will have someone make it. If they think other options will make more money, then they will have people make those other options instead. While I think personal interests may carry some weight and different people push for different things inside Paizo, ultimately it probably comes down to what sells.


^Yes, but somebody who is actually from the corresponding cuture might have a better chance of making something that will sell, provided that they can make the bridge to the main existing audience.


Who are the authors for Iron fang invasion?


UnArcaneElection wrote:

^Yes, but somebody who is actually from the corresponding cuture might have a better chance of making something that will sell, provided that they can make the bridge to the main existing audience.

They could probably get the game designer of Ehdrigohr. But at that point, I may as well play Ehdrigohr instead of waiting for Arcadia for another three years.


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Ehdrigohr?


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captain yesterday wrote:
Ehdrigohr?

Ehdrigohr.


Thanks. It's a pain in the ass to link stuff through my phone.


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UnArcaneElection wrote:

^Yes, but somebody who is actually from the corresponding cuture might have a better chance of making something that will sell, provided that they can make the bridge to the main existing audience.

Nothing about the history of English language published stories set in other cultures or lands suggest this is true.


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Hmm. So it's the organized Imperial South with monsters vs the local anarchist hippy commune of the north as the next AP? So the autonomous commune from Monty Python and the Holy Grail DID inspire a revolution against repressive government. It looks like Scotland and Wales vs an Imperial Shogun/9 daimyo setup version of Norman England, based on the descriptions of Molthune and Nirmathas.


An interesting spin on that would be an Erastil supported Nirmathas vs a Gorum/Abadar supported Molthune as the ideas of large civilization vs. rural utopia.


I think it has been stated that the Tian Xia campaign setting gazetteer was indeed one of the toughest CS books to write. It was basically creating an entirely new setting focused on capturing E and S Asian tropes, and they basically had to start from scratch but still had to work within the timeline for a normal CS book

So I think we will eventually get Arcadia (And Casmaron...and Southern Garund), but I think there will be a lot of advanced development first, releasing dribs and drabs of material until enough is out there that they can pull together a book without ridiculous amounts of effort.


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I don't think you'd need an employee to -design- an Arcadia AP, but I'd highly recommend hiring an advisor who is (1) indigenous (2) well-versed in issues related to race and culture in art and writing, not just in their own nation and (3) savvy about cultural knowledge in their own indigenous heritage.

Let's just say it's exceptionally complicated because every North American nation is very different, so drawing from bits of each to write one sorta-"Indian" AP wouldn't be acceptable. That's the kind of writing that is no longer tolerated, espcially because a lot of racial stereotypes have come out of that kind of project. These days, I'd argue that the best approach would be to deal directly with issues of racial identity in such an AP: Have mixed-bloods; have other races who have been accepted as "Aracadians" by the people there ("traditional" indigenous modes of cultural acceptance are very different than European/colonial ways); have "Arcadians" that defy the stereotypes; use multiple "Nations" within Arcadia and have them interact using similar procedures as some traditional indigenous modes of governance and diplomacy.

I would also argue that some aspect of colonialism should be a part of the AP, because that is absolutely a part of the history and situation of indigenous cultures. Making it pre-contact would be easier, but we cannot try to make things easy if we get into this topic.

So yes, it's complicated. But it could be -super- cool. I think it could be a challenge because some non-indigenous writers -and- players would be confronted with notions that they might find uncomfortable, but which some indigenous people (whoever those are) would say "Yeah! Finally, that's closer to my voice and my experience!" to. It would have to be a tricky product because identity -is- tricky.

Above all, give respect explicitly to the nations you're referencing, and say where you're getting your information from.

(FWiW, I do happen to be a person who is (1),(2) and (3) in case anyone's interested... :P)


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What Adventure Paths might come after Strange Aeons? Hmmm...

A war between Geb and the other nations of Garund (particularly Holomog) sparked by Arazni's insanity and Geb's obsession with Nex's demise?

A interstellar adventure taking place on various world's in Golarion's solar system focusing on stopping an apocalyptic invasion by the Dominion of the Black?

A adventure to stop an alliance of the Elemental Lords's clergy on Golarion from destroying the Star Towers and ultimately releasing Rovagug?


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I wonder if Distant Worlds stuff is likely to be less-palatable now that Starfinder is on the horizon?


I'm guessing that we're going to see something extra-planar if the First World and other Planes supplement sell well.


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Steve Geddes wrote:
I wonder if Distant Worlds stuff is likely to be less-palatable now that Starfinder is on the horizon?

Sadly, I think this is a fair point... why detail the solar system further in PF when it's the primary setting for Starfinder?


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I just hope for a hardcover campaign setting book for Distant worlds that focuses on the world building stuff so it can be used by both Pathfinder and Starfinder.

Dark Archive

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Just to let you know how Jade Regent sold:
#1, #2 and #4 are sold out.

#3: 500-999 left.
#5: 250-499 left.
#6: 25-99 left.

And these are the numbers from november 2015.

It is one of only 3 APs that have sold out of 3 books.
Kingmaker is the only AP that sold out of 4 books.


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Marco Massoudi wrote:

Just to let you know how Jade Regent sold:

#1, #2 and #4 are sold out.

#3: 500-999 left.
#5: 250-499 left.
#6: 25-99 left.

And these are the numbers from november 2015.

It is one of only 3 APs that have sold out of 3 books.
Kingmaker is the only AP that sold out of 4 books.

In fairness, this just tells us Paizo's print run was reasonably accurate, the print run could've been bigger or smaller than other APs in some books. Paizo does desire to sell out of most products.

Dark Archive

Carter Lockhart wrote:
Marco Massoudi wrote:

Just to let you know how Jade Regent sold:

#1, #2 and #4 are sold out.

#3: 500-999 left.
#5: 250-499 left.
#6: 25-99 left.

And these are the numbers from november 2015.

It is one of only 3 APs that have sold out of 3 books.
Kingmaker is the only AP that sold out of 4 books.

In fairness, this just tells us Paizo's print run was reasonably accurate, the print run could've been bigger or smaller than other APs in some books. Paizo does desire to sell out of most products.

While i don't have the exact numbers, the print runs are more or less the same for each AP.

They were probably a little different in the 3.5 days (APs 1-4) than they are now, but over 1000 issues of each book are printed.

The first installment of an AP has the highest print run and later have less.
The last book has the lowest print run.

Jade Regent has no lower print run than other APs, it actually is one of 3 APs that has sold out of 3 books (together with Curse of the Crimson Throne and Carrion Crown).

Only Kingmaker has managed to completely sell out of 4 books.

So it is actually one of the better selling ones.

Second Darkness is the worst selling - over 1000 of each book remain in stock.


Marco: unless you're able to provide citations, the main point you've built this on "all print runs are more or less the same" is a very big assumption to make.

Your other data point of "more than 1,000 copies", with 1,000 being their inventory number where an item is considered low stock and therefore actual numbers being much higher (10,000?) shows that we really have no idea what print run numbers are, nor how much they could vary from now to then. All things being equal with Paizo's additions of product lines implying they're growing in popularity, print runs could've increased, maybe even doubled (that might be a stretch) since the Jade regent path was released.

It's too much of an assumption that raw copies remaining would equal the sales figures.


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Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber

You know, Paizo does this sales every now and then where they list items under 1000, 500, 250 and 100 left.
There´s nothing indicating that sales figures from APs can´t be drawn from that. And also no AP saw a reprint besides Rise of the Rune Lords and soon Curse of the Crimson Throne in the anniversary hardback editions as far as i know.

So when Jade Regent is the second most sold out AP, it means it was (and probably is) pretty popular.
What wasn´t so popular seemingly is the Dragon Empires Primer and Gazetteer. Both books have some problems because they are compared to the very well and extensively done Inner Sea stuff, which received a lot more love. Both books are awesome and interesting though.


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Hayato Ken wrote:

You know, Paizo does this sales every now and then where they list items under 1000, 500, 250 and 100 left.

There´s nothing indicating that sales figures from APs can´t be drawn from that.

I am well aware of the low inventory posts. But again. My argument is that unless we know the starting value of the print run, this doesn't give us reliable data on how well selling a AP is.

Let's say, for example sake, the vol 1 of AP A had a print run of 10,000, sold 9,000 copies, and has 1,000 remaining in inventory. And then we have vol 1 of AP B which had a 15,000 print run, sold 14,000 copies and has 1,000 remaining in inventory. According to the data you and Marco are supporting, both sold equally well, when in fact AP B sold a great deal more. And there are time factors and other factors that could be brought into things as well.

I'm not saying Jade Regent did poorly. I'm arguing that, unless there is data I'm not aware of, only Paizo knows exactly how well it did. The data you guys bring up only supports that Paizo estimated very well in the supply meeting demand.

Community & Digital Content Director

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Removed a post and a series of posts in response to it. Referring to civilizations that occupied the Americas prior to colonization as "primitive savages" is offensive and has no place on paizo.com.

Dark Archive

Carter Lockhart wrote:
Hayato Ken wrote:

You know, Paizo does this sales every now and then where they list items under 1000, 500, 250 and 100 left.

There´s nothing indicating that sales figures from APs can´t be drawn from that.

I am well aware of the low inventory posts. But again. My argument is that unless we know the starting value of the print run, this doesn't give us reliable data on how well selling a AP is.

Let's say, for example sake, the vol 1 of AP A had a print run of 10,000, sold 9,000 copies, and has 1,000 remaining in inventory. And then we have vol 1 of AP B which had a 15,000 print run, sold 14,000 copies and has 1,000 remaining in inventory. According to the data you and Marco are supporting, both sold equally well, when in fact AP B sold a great deal more. And there are time factors and other factors that could be brought into things as well.

I'm not saying Jade Regent did poorly. I'm arguing that, unless there is data I'm not aware of, only Paizo knows exactly how well it did. The data you guys bring up only supports that Paizo estimated very well in the supply meeting demand.

While you are right that i don't know the EXACT print run of an AP, your example makes little sense.

On what assumption should Paizo order a print run 5000 higher for one AP part #1, than on another?
The only possible answer to that is subscribers and pre-order numbers.

James Jacobs said, that Paizo is financing itself to a good part through AP sales, which normaly take a long time to sell out (which is wanted to keep most products in circulation).

It takes some time to analyze sales figures and to adjust print numbers up or down, especially when you consider that orders are placed roughly half a year in advance.

Taking that into account, it is very probable to say the print numbers for the first 4 APs are very similiar, if not even exactly the same.

With the release of AP #25 (which sold out) and the change to the Pathfinder rules it is very possible that the print run numbers were changed.

It is not very likely that these numbers were changed for the following AP "Kingmaker" because it is impossible to have enough sales data by that time.

So it IS relatively save to say: "KINGMAKER sold much better than Council of Thieves."

And it is relatively save to say, that both APs had similiar print runs.

Also i think your numbers are way to high with 10000 and 15000.

2000-6000 seem like an educated guess.

Also i would like to say, that i put a lot of time into researching these numbers.

Can you say the same?


"On what assumption should Paizo order a print run 5000 higher for one AP part #1, than on another?
The only possible answer to that is subscribers and pre-order numbers."
You give a very reasonable example right here, trends in pre-orders and subscriptions. Other factors can include a ailAbility of supporting products, tie-ins to other successful APs (I'm certain SS's sequel status near RotRL AE release means it's print order would be higher than normal, and likewise AL #100 is probably the higher printed part 4 of an AP if I were to wager). And of course, the begging reason would be growth. If Paizo sees a growth in AP purchases, the next AP is likely to have a higher print run. There are a ton of reasons a print run could be higher or lower than a different product.

"James Jacobs said, that Paizo is financing itself to a good part through AP sales, which normaly take a long time to sell out (which is wanted to keep most products in circulation)."

Unless you can find me a specific quote that says Paizo depends on a high back catalog inventory (the cheap bundle sales I used to purchase CotCT, Legacy of Fire, and Second Darkness get otherwise), I believe you're misattributing what is meant by Paizo finance relying on AP sales. To my understanding APs are monthly products with high numbers of garunteed customers. It is that expected easy to predict monthly income that allows Paizo to budget for regular costs and salary and such. If anything, during the release of RotRL AE, Paizo indicated that they don't want a huge back catalog with reprints and such, because it can Canibalize new sales from the AP subscriptions, that whilst predictable income stream.

"argument that Kingmaker sold better than Council of Thieves"

That is a very good argument for kingmaker outselling Council of Thieves. I don't disagree. But this is a safe argument to make as the two AP were released relatively close together and Kingmaker has had potions of it sold out for a long time. But ee're not really talking about kingmaker. We were talking about using remaining inventory to measure jade regent against all other APs.

"Also i think your numbers are way to high with 10000 and 15000.
2000-6000 seem like an educated guess."
Does my example change if we substitute 3,000 for A and 4,000 for B?

"Also i would like to say, that i put a lot of time into researching these numbers.
Can you say the same?"
Are you referring to your estimates print run numbers? No, I did not put much time into them because it was to illustrate and example. I could've used two digit numbers to the same effect.
Are you referring to the in stock numbers? Because those are trivially easy to find and I don't see how it helps your argument. Inherently spending more time doesn't make your assumption more correct than my assumption.

Your post has seemed a way to distract from directly countering the argument that, without initial print numbers, we have limited ability to derive the success of an AP against other APs judging purely on their in stock status.

This is all getting a bit off topic so I don't think I'll continue discussing the flaw of basing sale number assumptions purely on in stock numbers in this thread.

I look forward to the reveal of the Gen Con adventure path. I could go for hobgoblins though admittedly, with my back catalogue of adventures from Paizo and third party, I'm highly considering Unsubscribing until I use more of the material I have. CotCT bonus might have me Nab strange Aeons.


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Marco Massoudi wrote:

While you are right that i don't know the EXACT print run of an AP, your example makes little sense.

On what assumption should Paizo order a print run 5000 higher for one AP part #1, than on another?
The only possible answer to that is subscribers and pre-order numbers.

Another is that they have data about what kind of adventure sells well and which one doesn't. Also, the various "experimental" APs could easily have had smaller print runs.

Quote:

James Jacobs said, that Paizo is financing itself to a good part through AP sales, which normaly take a long time to sell out (which is wanted to keep most products in circulation).

It takes some time to analyze sales figures and to adjust print numbers up or down, especially when you consider that orders are placed roughly half a year in advance.

Taking that into account, it is very probable to say the print numbers for the first 4 APs are very similiar, if not even exactly the same.

I think that's unlikely, personally. RotRL was quite a risk and they probably had to commit to CotCT before that one had finished, so I wouldn't mind guessing that those were the same. However, given they were such a big hit, my guess would be Second Darkness had a larger print run and that possibly they scaled back Legacy of Fire since the Pathfinder Game was about to launch and there would be an inevitable reduction in demand for a compatible-but-not-the-same game.

Quote:

With the release of AP #25 (which sold out) and the change to the Pathfinder rules it is very possible that the print run numbers were changed.

It is not very likely that these numbers were changed for the following AP "Kingmaker" because it is impossible to have enough sales data by that time.

So it IS relatively save to say: "KINGMAKER sold much better than Council of Thieves."

And it is relatively save to say, that both APs had similiar print runs.

I don't think so, to be frank. I could see it going either way - there was a LOT of pre-kingmaker Hype and I would again guess that Paizo took a positive view when deciding on print sizes for that one.

Quote:

Also i think your numbers are way to high with 10000 and 15000.

2000-6000 seem like an educated guess.

Also i would like to say, that i put a lot of time into researching these numbers.

Can you say the same?

I think what you are missing is the change in mood/size of the community over the years. I have no idea on print runs, but I'd guess that each 1st instalment of the latest APs have over 10,000 copies. (The last time they released numbers there were over a thousand charter subscribers who have been there since day one getting one of each instalment, so 2000 is way to low.

I'd assume the second and third instalments to be similar to one another (but lower than the first) and that the fourth, fifth and six each drop off from the previous.

I don't mean to disparage your research, but there are an awful lot of factors. For example, the growing sales of Pathfinder CRB probably feeds into increased demand and they probably anticipate that rather than wait for sales data to confirm it or they risk leaving money on the table.

They want things to sell out, but not until a few years after release.

Liberty's Edge

Bleh, Iron Fang Invasion doesn't particularly appeal to me. Considering Hell's Rebels, Hell's Vengeance and Strange Aeons don't either, it's a rough two years for me :( haven't really been excited about an AP since Wrath of the Righteous.

Give me my damn Arcadia already.

Dark Archive

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Coridan wrote:

Bleh, Iron Fang Invasion doesn't particularly appeal to me. Considering Hell's Rebels, Hell's Vengeance and Strange Aeons don't either, it's a rough two years for me :( haven't really been excited about an AP since Wrath of the Righteous.

Give me my damn Arcadia already.

Not until we get an actual Tien Xia AP. It really sucks that the only AP that has anything to do with it doesn't even take place in it (well until the end where pretty much you could teleport to it by the time you arrive). Then it's to late to get enthusiastic for it. Hell, why even get the damned Setting or Gazzetter if its really one book.

What would be funny if the supposed Arcadia AP turns into just a big boat ride, and in the final AP book you arrive, then end.

RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32

NenkotaMoon wrote:
Coridan wrote:

Bleh, Iron Fang Invasion doesn't particularly appeal to me. Considering Hell's Rebels, Hell's Vengeance and Strange Aeons don't either, it's a rough two years for me :( haven't really been excited about an AP since Wrath of the Righteous.

Give me my damn Arcadia already.

Not until we get an actual Tien Xia AP. It really sucks that the only AP that has anything to do with it doesn't even take place in it (well until the end where pretty much you could teleport to it by the time you arrive). Then it's to late to get enthusiastic for it. Hell, why even get the damned Setting or Gazzetter if its really one book.

Tien Xia would have been a wonderful setting for a Hobgoblin invasion.

Dark Archive

Lord Fyre wrote:
NenkotaMoon wrote:
Coridan wrote:

Bleh, Iron Fang Invasion doesn't particularly appeal to me. Considering Hell's Rebels, Hell's Vengeance and Strange Aeons don't either, it's a rough two years for me :( haven't really been excited about an AP since Wrath of the Righteous.

Give me my damn Arcadia already.

Not until we get an actual Tien Xia AP. It really sucks that the only AP that has anything to do with it doesn't even take place in it (well until the end where pretty much you could teleport to it by the time you arrive). Then it's to late to get enthusiastic for it. Hell, why even get the damned Setting or Gazzetter if its really one book.
Tien Xia would have been a wonderful setting for a Hobgoblin invasion.

It would actually give a reason to own the books for it.

Dark Archive

Hold on, my bad, you have to wait for the 4th book to even get to Tien Xia. That's assuming you get that far into the AP.


Spoiler:
That was one of my biggest problems with the Tian Xia AP that you had to wait to get to Tian Xia. The other was the last AP had like few Asian style creatures, evil outsider types that didn't fit, and the final boss wasn't even a Oni.


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Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber

Maybe you should stop calling Jade Regent the Tian Xia AP and call it what it really is: The Caravan AP

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