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There's no real "system" for it; you'd have to decide for yourself and your campaign. Pretty much all the stat work is up to you. If you want a model for how a commoner could evolve into a fully-classed character, I'd look at this archetype.
Also noteworthy - one of the characters, Amaya (Kaijitsu), is given full bard stats in the recently released A Song of Silver.
Yeah, that's left up to you. Someone on the forums did stat out all the NPCs in their initial potential classes up to level 6 (although you'd have to do your own if you aren't sticking with those classes for them). I believe it's in the pinned Bastards of Erebus GM Guide thread. It makes a great shortcut if you don't want to do all the statting yourself or the party interacts with someone unexpectedly and you need a quick stat reference.
I think they statted Amaya at level 6 in Song of Silver if I remember right? It'd be relatively simple to reverse-engineer those stats for earlier levels, though.
EDIT: Nope, I was wrong. It's this thread: http://paizo.com/threads/rzs2kslo?Children-of-Westcrown-Bringing-the-NPCs-t o-Life
I think the latest-posted link to the file is the one that's still active.