Goblin Squad Member
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Now offering tier 2 Sawyer services, including Composite Maple Staves +0. Time to craft your T2 bow!
Nice work Cap!
26 copper apiece, according to my price estimator :) Assuming you are making them near a source of Yew and Maple. 74c if you are hauling the raw mats up to Guardheim or Alderwag. 58c if you refine it down south then haul the refined staves up north. These are per unit prices for +0 staves.
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Goblin Squad Member
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26 copper, eh? The lowest price I've seen in the Auction House for a lump of coal is 20, and I can't see myself running across the map for an amount of coin I can get killing mobs for 10 minutes. How are you figuring your prices?
Remember that's per piece. A load of 40 or 80 would be 800 or 1600 gold...
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Goblin Squad Member
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Assuming you avoid the EVE newbie mistake of "things I mine are free", a sell price of 20c for coal and 20c for iron would end up with an opportunity cost (what you could get by just selling the mats) of 1720c for +2 Pot Plate heavy armor meaning the correct sell price for +2 Pot Plate with a nominal 10% markup is about 1900c .
You could sell +0 maple staves for 1 silver right now if you wanted to and people would buy. That wouldn't last long, though, since you and every other sawyer at rank 8 would be popping out 5 staves per batch. The apothecarists and Foresters gathering moderate adhesive, flammable, and acidic would be the one's making the real dough, followed by bowyers.
As for Coal at 20c apiece, that is either way over priced (Talonguard, Rathglen, Alderwag, Guardheim) or slightly over priced (Mrchmont, TK, Canis Castrum). My gut says it should be about 5c in one of the first 4 AH's, give or take some. Something tells me whoever is selling it at 20c apiece is also selling small quantities of it. Great room for someone else to step in and seriously undercut the price either by directly undercutting the price, or by refining the steel (or dwarven steel) at a more convenient AH and importing the refined products. No one will pay 20c for a piece of coal when they can pay 20 copper when they can pay 50 copper for a +2 steel ingot that contains 4x's as much coal AND 4 hunks of iron ore to boot.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I wonder what the going rate for a Dwarven Steel Banded +1 is.
First one will be done in the next two hours and production is now 24/7. Might have a spare one for the right price on the weekend. Put your offer in.
@Caliptocracy
I will be in contact.
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Goblin Squad Member
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There's also the dynamic that anything I see listed in the auction house is something someone hasn't sold yet (and I don't check very often, mainly because it doesn't work yet). But after checking a little more today, I've seen 15, 18, 20, 25 copper, in groups of between 10 and 100, in Rathglen, where anyone can easily gather a coal a minute. It will certainly be interesting seeing this economy develop.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Holy carp ... I should go sell my loads of coal I can't yet use.
If you are willing to haul it down to southeast (or you are talking 1000s of coal), you should contact Cheatle or Fierywind for an offer.
@Neadenil Edam: yeah, raw material prices on the AH are not realistic. Perhaps people come from other games (including tabletop) with the expectation that copper pieces are trivial?
Simple math: compare pve farming rate with gathering rate
avg value = (#cp farmed/hour) / (#items gathered/hr - #items salvaged/hour)
maybe we should persuade Cheatle to generate some statistics for 10-man escalation fighting team vs 10 T2 gatherers...
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I wonder what the going rate for a Dwarven Steel Banded +1 is.
*grinning ear to ear* Are you ready for walloping of priceless information about pricing?
[walloping]
First things first, you wouldn't sell it. Or, more accurately, no one will be able to *buy* a Dwarven Steel Banded +1 (DSB+1) on the open market right now or anytime in the near future. The suits that are being made now and for the next few days to two weeks will exclusively go to the combat alts of the crafters, their settlements, and their friends under the current socialized system "trade" in the game. Towards the end of this period, we will start to see some bartering for the armor begin to happen; but not much. Finally, there will be such armor for sale on the open market; but not for the next 2 weeks to a month, is my bet.
So, in this context, the answer is "priceless," unless you are thinking the economy should switch to the coal standard instead of the copper-piece standard.
But lets look at the numbers, anyways :) I think you will all find this highly informative.
For comparative purposes, lets look at a Pot Steel Plate +1. Also, we will ignore any transportation costs associated with getting raw or refined materials to the place of crafting.
Pot Steel Plate +1
Crafting time for Rank 8 Crafter with 100 Quality Facility: 36 miuntes
Crafting Skill Cost: 19 copper
Refined Component Cost: 251 copper
Final Cost: 270 copper or 2s 70c
Percent of Final Cost that is Skill Cost: 7%
Dwarven Steel Banded
Crafting time for Rank 8 Crafter with 100 Quality Facility: 82 hours
Crafting Skill Cost: 2,644 copper or 26s 44c
Refined Component Cost: 622 copper
Final Cost: 3,266 copper or 32s 66c
Percent of Final Cost that is Skill Cost: 81%
The component cost increased by about 150%, but the Crafting Skill cost increased by 13,815%. Now why the hell did that happen?
The Base Crafting Time for the PSP+0 armor is 22,000 seconds, and the base quality is 10. The Quality of the +1 Pot Steel Plate is 28.
The Base Crafting Time for the DSB+0 armor is 220,000 seconds, and the base quality is 80. The Quality of the +1 DSB is 104.
The crafting equation is...
(Base Crafting Time x Square(Quality)) ÷ (Skill x Facility Quality)
So between that T1 armor and that T2 armor, the Base Crafting Time increased from 22,000 to 220,000- or 10x.
The Quality of the +1 armor jumps from 28 to 104... but since we square it, the actual effect on the crafting time is much much worse.
28^2 = 784
104^2 = 10,816
That is an increase of 13.8x over the T1 armor. So it all goes something like this:
10*22,000 x 13.8*28^2 = 220,000 x 104^2
OR
138 x 22,000 x 28^2 gets you from T1 armor crafting time to the T2 armor crafting time. 138x! And what does that translate to, in percentage terms? 13,800%. Where have we seen that number before???
So the jump from T1 to T2 is HUGE in terms of time (skill) costs. If you were worried about us not having a sink of the value of T1 gear inflating drastically before, I think it is safe to say that that may be a slightly premature concern given the cost of making T2 gear.
Buts lets continue. There are more lessons to be learned, here!
So the guy making the DSB+1 "earns" 26s off of the sale of the armor. How much does he actually make per day?
Well, if he is using our standard 100 quality facility, the armor takes 86 hours to make- or 3.6 days. 26s divided by 3.5 days means 7s (700 copper) per day. Not bad for not really having to do anything, as a player, right?
But lets say that crafter is still married to their starter settlement (Rathglen, Ossians Crossing, Rathglen, Marchmont, Rathglen, or Kindleburn, or Rathglen). The facility quality there is 50, if I am not mistaken. 50 being 1/2 of 100, and the facility quality being divided directly into the crafting time equation, we get some very simple but very revealing results:
Crafting Time: 82.6 hours -> 165.2 hours or 3.5 days -> 7 days
Crafting Skill Cost: 26s -> 26s (sorry, making it slower doesn't mean you made it better ;)
Earnings Per Day: 7s per day -> 3s 50c per day
Oh and, also, you are at greater risk for LOOSING money on the slower crafting time because you will not be able to react to sudden shifts in market prices due to all the faster crafters around you cranking out the *same* quality armor in half the time as you. Put another way, you will start crafting something expecting to sell it for Price A only to get it back in a week and find out you can only sell it for Price B, which is painfully less than Price A. I think its time for some folks to consider filing for a divorce.
[/walloping]
This is hilarious when you realize that Thod was looking to sell, not buy.
Not so hilarious. He won't be selling any of that armor for coin unless he is a very brave soul and a pioneer of the market. And so far no one in this game has proven they have the stuff for that.
Even less hilarious given I estimated the final cost for him to make the armor at 32s.
Even less hilarious if he is not paying attention to whether he is crafting that armor in a settlement that does not have better-than-NPC crafting facilities.
Even less hilarious for anyone reading this wondering about the cost difference between T1 gear and T2 gear and how the game is about to shift in that area.
And even less hilarious when you go back and reread the first paragraph of the post and think about what I was *actually* saying: "First things first, you wouldn't sell it. Or, more accurately, no one will be able to *buy* a Dwarven Steel Banded +1 (DSB+1) on the open market right now or anytime in the near future. The suits that are being made now and for the next few days to two weeks will exclusively go to the combat alts of the crafters, their settlements, and their friends under the current socialized system "trade" in the game. Towards the end of this period, we will start to see some bartering for the armor begin to happen; but not much. Finally, there will be such armor for sale on the open market; but not for the next 2 weeks to a month, is my bet."
I am assuming Thod is not going to be selling the armor for copper coin and explaining why no one will be for a good while to come.
And not so hilarious because maybe one of the goals of this post was to see if I could not recreate the Tansy effect, whereby I offered to buy Tansy Leaves and then everyone freaked out and started hoarding them (or at least not selling them to me). Here I am offering that no one will sell T2+1 armor for 32s anytime in the near future- perhaps in the hopes that someone will prove me wrong?
I would normally not expect a "This is hilarious" comment from someone like you, Guurzak. You're generally smart enough and respectful enough to look beneath the surface before sharing public laughter about someone's intellectual efforts.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Enough copper and I will sell.
Your assumptions are wrong. The first two suits are going to fighting members - indeed. But I will have a third ready before end of the week and also the third person asking for tier 2 prefers Captains Chain - for which I just missed to produce the Wire and not Plate - so there is a possible spare one.
I will visit the AH ahead to see what I can buy for the copper to make a decision. Off course alternative offers will work as well.
PS: Your crafting time is off.
edit: PPS - my first member is now running around in his +1 Dwarven Steel Banded, the second is in production with <24 hours to go and material for the third is ready, dwarven steel plate for number 4 is being done (player logged out to go to bed - will be done in the next hour). So I know crafting times well and how to optimize them.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Prices are intersting
From a gatherer perspective:
I need 40 coal, 40 iron and 20 lodestone - so it is only the lodestone that adds cost (I just ignore copper bar and padding at this stage). This is less coal and iron as a pot steel plate.
Crafting time indeed is a lot more - but I can't have my crafter 24/7 busy with pot steel plate. Just not enough material comes in / enough demand for it - and I tend to do +2 versions - not +1.
So on pot steel plate my crafter is most of the time idle. How is this affecting price?
But thanks for the 32 silver base price. Need to check what the price for tier 2 recipes is - if any are available.
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Goblin Squad Member
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"this is hilarious" was not said in the tone of "look at that dummy sspitfire", it was more in the sense of "won't we all have a good laugh together when you realize your mistake." Sorry you took it that way.
Thod, look into having a leatherworker set you up with some T2 strapped leather to get another couple of keywords from Wright.
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Goblin Squad Member
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So, in this context, the answer is "priceless," unless you are thinking the economy should switch to the coal standard instead of the copper-piece standard.
ummhh ... Keepers kind of is on the coal standard.
You want a +2 staff or set of +2 armor .. we will supply it for the appropriate amount of coal or pine or moonstones. T2 recipes are also welcome but it seems unlikely many people are trading those at present.
No-one down our way wants copper.
edit: PPS - my first member is now running around in his +1 Dwarven Steel Banded, the second is in production with <24 hours to go and material for the third is ready, dwarven steel plate for number 4 is being done (player logged out to go to bed - will be done in the next hour). So I know crafting times well and how to optimize them.
That was a mistake on my part. I didn't mean to imply that you don't. The folks hitting T2 and still crafting in Rathglen, however, are completely clueless (sorry if yall take offense, but its true). Thod's 34 hour set up done in Rathglen would still take at least twice as long, depending on how nice the fascilities are where he is crafting. My hope in saying all of this is to get the T2 players (and their crafters/refiners) still hanging around starter settlements to move out towards player settlements where they will do more good for both themselves and the game.
As to your crafting queue being empty all the time for T1 goods, it sounds like you should start advertising that you are buying any and all coal and iron folks are bringing to you, so folks will bring you more of it.
Lastly, the lodestone is not what is jacking up the component cost of the T2 armor. For one thing, you are using a *lot* more units of raw resources to make the T2 Dwarven Steel Banded (Copper and Wool are not insignificantly cheap- they comprise about 1/3 of the component cost of crafting the armor). Another big difference is the cost of refining the T2 Dwarven Steel Plates. For the T1 Steel Plate, you add a fraction of a copper on to the per unit cost of each steel plate refined. For the T2 product, it jumps to 5 copper per unit refined. Lodestone, right now, isn't worth much more than coal- and might actually be worth less.
@Guurzak, in the future, something along the lines of "You realize that...." and letting me figure out the joke would be far less offensive than simply laughing at me. As it happens, I was well aware that Thod was talking about selling. I chose to turn it around, however, for illustrative purposes.
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Goblin Squad Member
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My hope in saying all of this is to get the T2 players (and their crafters/refiners) still hanging around starter settlements to move out towards player settlements where they will do more good for both themselves and the game.
On that note...
Come on up to Tavernhold! We have skilled crafters and actually encourage drinking on the job!
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Goblin Squad Member
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@sspitfire
There is a lot of great stuff you have gathered in your formulas and I like it a lot. It helps me to come up with what I would accept or not. But you truly miss several issues that can be all overriding
a) value of resources
These never have a fixed price - otherwise trade would never happen. You have to take into account some kind of medium price to get to a value and I congratulate you doing so - but it misses local circumstances.
- I had 16 +2 coarse padding lying in the vault. EL is next to croplands with lots of wool and we have a reliable weaver who turns over lots of woll quickly. This means we are a seller of wool products and could sell +2 coarse padding as well
- Copper was just gathering dust in the vault. My son made a lot and I told him off - don't make the stuff until we have a use. This might change now - but at the time copper was a lot in surplus (including lots of broken goblin weapons)
- Coal - is always needed and we have a constant need for it. But the armour needs 40 coal compared to 49 for a pot steel plate +2. So here we actually have a saving and I would likely have traded 8 coal against 10 copper bars
- Iron - enough of it around and easy enough to get so we seldom go out to hunt for it
- Lodestone - a real problem as we have no mountains. There are 2 hexes available where it is not overly abundant - so 15 Lodestone take me nearly as long to gather as 60 coal - taking travel and gathering real time into account
b) politics
You did a good analysis why (big) alliances won't seel Dwarven Banded Steel +1 any time soon - as they have to support their own members. Bit look at this from the view of a new player who wants to join such an alliance and likely would have to get in line (at the end) to qualify for such armour.
Selling such armour shows - hey - we have surplus come to us. Or for own members - here is how much we value you as we give you a piece of armour worth 32 silver pieces.
It is also a statement of a smaller alliance to show there is an economy that is not done by one of the large conglomerates. Other smaller groups might follow - might trade their T2 with us in exchange as part of this.
c) Non settlements
You mention Rathglen. Actually - my understanding is that nobody in Rathglen actually will ever be cappable to craft such armour. Correct me - but you need a rank 8 smelter and I thought you have to be a member of a settlement to be able to reach such a rank.
So if there are groups out there (I know of SENSOU - but there might be others) then buying from me or joining a settlement might be the only ways to ever get such equipment.
I'm sure you can use it even not being in a settlement as you need only rank 6 Unbreakable and not any rank 8 - but I could be wrong here.
Yes - armoursmith you can get up high enough to rank 7.
Oh - thanks for the exposure :)
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Goblin Squad Member
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Thod: great marketing skills! I'm convinced you won't have the most cost-effective production line (including lodestone gathering), but with your location and the reputation you are building I expect to see you get customers. Maybe even become a hub for "free T2 traders".
Sspitfire: great analytic skills! And even if some disagree with certain assumptions, both the assumptions and the model are so transparent that it is trivial to check alternative scenarios. If you have an agenda besides providing clear info, you must be very sneaky indeed for I see none. Thanks again.
Thanks for making it very clear that T2+0 is going to cost way more than T1+2. (Though it is also worth way more due to the 3d200 system).
On a final note, I find it hard to believe that a level 8 crafter could make as much as 7 silvers a day just crafting, unless adventurers and gatherers can easily make similar (or higher) amounts of coin.
Training costs should kickstart the money economy though.
-foxglove/silkworm/randomwalker
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Goblin Squad Member
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I decided to 'auction off' the armor. Delivery should be Saturday (after downtime). It will be an 'e-bay' style auction across this board and the GW board.
I will write an introduction to the process with Theodum. I will then go into some more details how to bid.
The base currency will be copper and starting bid will be 1 copper. Bidding will be open for approx. 36 hours. I will add copper equivalents for other resources - like coal, iron, greenweed, lodestone.
Anything else of value can be offered but will be transferred into a copper equivalent. Sspitfires calculations are pretty useful for me to come up with such an equivalent value - also auction house prices will be useful guides but it will take into account EL needs and surplus and my valuation will be final.
Lets have fun with that. Looking forward to write it up properly tonight. I already have a serious offer - so expect the 1 copper starting price to be the equivalent of a 1 cent starting price for something like a brand new iPad - I expect it will go for a lot more.
Now I just need to get a bidding war going and I'm golden :)
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Goblin Squad Member
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On a final note, I find it hard to believe that a level 8 crafter could make as much as 7 silvers a day just crafting, unless adventurers and gatherers can easily make similar (or higher) amounts of coin.
Interesting to revisit this thread as it was one of the motivations for the auction.
Having several tier 2 crafters / refiners I can tell
Gemcutter 8 - idle 97% of time - might refine 40 minutes per day
Sage 8 - idle 98% of time - refines < 30 minutes per day
Tailor 8 - idle 95% of time - currently spends some time on +2 Runespun robes
Armorsmith 8 - busy 24/7
I guess for the tailor this will change once she gets to rank 9 - Imbued Silk Robes. Time to ensure all other bits are in place.
So the important bit for a crafter is to make something that is truly needed and has a demand that can't easily be fulfilled. This will be similar for weapons if useful ones (not tier 2 daggers) become available.