Order of the Blessings deck


Rules Questions and Gameplay Discussion


I had a somewhat stupid debate with my friend about the order of the cards in the blessings deck.

What happened was that I moved the blessings deck to a better position on the table but failed to get the whole deck and the bottom card was left to the original position. So I just flipped the the bottom card, as it was my turn, and pretended that the bottom card was the top card of the blessings deck.

My friend did not like this and claimed this has some effect to the game - that it is somehow not the same to take any card of the blessings deck and one must always draw the top one. He claims that the order of the deck is formed and it may not be disturbed anyhow, as the order of the cards matters. He also said that I broke the rules.

In my opinion the probability of getting a certain card from a randomly formed deck is always same, regardless which card you draw from it. The order does not matter. I know that in rulebook it says "the top card", but I do not think the game desingers would give much signifigance for drawing a card from the middle for example. Besides, "the top card" could also mean "the best card" ;)

Does anyone else agree with me, or should the rules be interpreted concisely?

I realise that this question is rather idiotic, but this debate with my friend just goes on and on and I would like to have a some sort of answer for it. :)


You are absolutely right that from a probability/statistic viewpoint there is absolutely no difference between drawing from the bottom, the middle or the top card.
I fail to see the difference between how you draw the card as long as it is random. So by an extremely strict RAW reading you did break the rules because you didn't draw the "top card", but from a RAI perspective it is the same thing and from my perspective you did nothing wrong.
And yes this is a silly discussion!


Thank you for your answer. My friend is always saying that I just dont get it, and I almost started to doubt my own opinion - that I missed some critical point in this question. It feels good that someone is finally agreeing with me. :)


There is at least one scenario where the villain is X cards deep in the blessing deck. If you are playing a scenario like that, then obviously the order of the blessings make a difference if your drawing from top or bottom. Otherwise, no it doesn't matter much.

And flagging to move to the card game forum...

Grand Lodge

Yeah, wrong forums..

But you're right, as long as there are only Blessings in the deck and the order is not known then it makes absolutely no difference as random is still random. Have your friend sit through a couple discrete math courses and then have him argue his point again.

Sovereign Court

Unless a card or power has specificly modified the blessings deck, no it really doesn't matter. Yes, technically the friend is right and you didn't follow the rules exactly as written. However, assuming nothing modified your blessings deck before the incident, it makes absolutely no difference whatsoever.

Grand Lodge

Your friend is the type that complains when a blackjack player "takes the dealer's ten," isn't he/she? :)


What everyone else said. You are right.


Pathfinder Maps Subscriber; Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Superscriber

I had a debate like this at work, some years back. A team leader in my department stated that if you flip a normal penny 49 times, and it comes up heads all 49 times in a row, that the probability for the 50th flip is...

What do you think he said?:
It will come up tails. Because probability says it will even out.

Several of us said this was nonsense. That if the penny was a real penny, it was still 50/50 for the next flip.

Some argued that if it came up heads 49 times in a row, it wasn't a normal penny. He said it was.

Eventually, people tried to end the argument. He wouldn't let us. He kept insisting we admit he was right.

This argument went on for about 3 hours. Additional people joined in, others walked off in disgust. He was my boss. I couldn't leave.

Three hours of my life I will never get back...


Your boss was wrong, knows nothing about probability, and likes to waste time. LOL.

Pathfinder Adventure Card Game Designer

If you flip a normal penny 49 times and it comes up heads all 49 times, you are very likely not flipping it normally. More than likely, you are flipping it in such a way that it always comes up heads.

At the point at which you ask me what the next likely outcome is, my job is figure out whether you will cheat to make it come up heads again, or whether you will cheat to make it come up tails. This depends entirely on what I think your estimation of me is.

If I think you think I'm not aware of your trap, I will pick tails, because you believe I will pick heads, and thus I shouldn't.
If I think you think I am aware of your trap, I will pick heads, because you believe this is the moment that I think you should switch, and thus you won't.
If I think you think I am a complete and utter moron, I will pick heads, because you believe I will pick tails because "probability says it will even out."


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While statistically, the 'next card' can be any one of the cards left in the deck, physically, that's not the case. The next card is the next card and not any of the other cards in the deck.

Mathematically, it doesn't make much of a difference at all, that is unless it has an influence on other possibilities.

For example: what if, during said game, you all ended up losing or having characters die because the 'final blessing' didn't match one someone was playing, thus disallowing them from recharging it as opposed to discarding it, and that caused someone to die, whereas if it would have matched the card you originally took from the bottom, that wouldn't have happened. You effectively caused that death!

Granted, there's lots that could happen between now and then, but sometimes, the slightest change of fate can bring about a big change of events.

Schrodinger Card! The result doesn't matter until it matters!

So, while your friend didn't exactly choose the best argument to make, it -technically- was against the rules, as the rules say to flip the top card and you didn't do that.

That being said, when I deal out cards, I don't always deal clockwise. Sometimes I change it up just to make things a little more random (and because I've met people that 'neglect' to shuffle well intentionally).

So, yep, what you did was against the rules. Did it matter a lot? Most likely not. Was it life threatening and should you be thrown in prison for 10 years without chance of parole? Nope.

Should you do it again? Only if you thought the argument your friend had was entertaining to everyone involved and it won't cause a rift the size of the Pacific Ocean to form between you; otherwise, you probably want to just draw from the top.

--

Concerning the boss comment above, probability relies on randomness. There technically isn't anything random about flipping a coin; the definition of random is what it is only because we don't fully understand all of the influences and variables involved.

You should have told a boss that scientist created a machine that could flip a coin and 100% of the time it'd know exactly what it would come up as. It's still a coin flip, and probability of it landing heads or tails is still there, however, all of the variables are determined beforehand. It's still random, but it's not random ^^

You could have let your boss think about that one for a while :P


Next time, the coin will land sideways, and stay stood on edge...


Cintra Bristol wrote:

I had a debate like this at work, some years back...

Three hours of my life I will never get back...

On the bright side, you got paid for it.


Probabilities can be very counter-intuitive. I had explain the "Monty Hall problem" to my friend several times...and he had to confirm it from numerous different sources before he accepted my explanation.

Grand Lodge

Mike Selinker wrote:


If I think you think I'm not aware of your trap, I will pick tails, because you believe I will pick heads, and thus I shouldn't.
If I think you think I am aware of your trap, I will pick heads, because you believe this is the moment that I think you should switch, and thus you won't.
If I think you think I am a complete and utter moron, I will pick heads, because you believe I will pick tails because "probability says it will even out."

Iocane powder. I'd stake my life on it!


Playing cards are quantum. Any card in the deck is every card in the deck, until the face is observed..


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What we all need to take a moment to do is remember what kind of game you are playing. To make this game the most fun, play it like an RPG. When someone moves the blessing pile and a blessing get's misplaced, then make it part of the storyline instead of making it "fair".

I was playing a game and had 3 weapons for Merisiel. I was sorting my cards while the other guys were setting up the board. They announced that it was done and I gathered my cards and counted them... 11... 12... 13... 13??? Where are my three weapon cards? Noone knew... We then counted each location deck. 3 location decks had an extra card. someone had picked up my weapons and accidently shuffled them into locations for the scenario.

RULES were broken!!! I have 3 less cards - no weapons. There are more cards then legal in some locations!!

We could have gone through all the locations and found my cards then had to re-setup the scenario - rather than that...

Our scenario was altered to include that Merisiel was robbed the night before the mission. The party knew it must have been that slippery merchant they met the night before - furthermore he probably sold the items in the very region they were preparing to explore. She may need a little extra protection to get through this one alive - and hey if you find my stuff, please please try to get back my Long Shock Bow!

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